NFL 2011 - Betting Lines - Picks To Win, Versus the Spread and the Over/Under: Week 4

I'm not much of a gambler, but I know many of you are!  So, this year I will be helping out my friends who like to make wagers versus the spread.  Here, I will give you my picks for every NFL game this weekend on who will win, versus the spread and the over/under.  Additionally, I'll give you some analysis on the logic behind the picks.  Making good picks is all about good information.  Week 3 of the NFL season was a big week for some key player injuries, so gauging picks and final scores will come down to key injury factors this week and the weeks to come.  Injuries are a part of the game and that's why you should be considering who is in and out of the games to make sound wagers.  Here is how I fared in Week 3 and my overall record to date:


*WEEK 3 - RESULTS* 

Winner: 9-7
Winner w/ Spread: 7-8-1
Over/Under: 11-5

Trifecta: 4
Perfect Team Score Predictions: 0
Perfect Game Score Predictions: 0
 
___________


*2011 Overall Record*

Winner: 31-17 (.646)
Winner w/ Spread: 21-24-3 (.467)
Over/Under: 27-19-2 (.587)

Trifecta: 10
Perfect Team Score Predictions: 6   [Week 1]: Atlanta, St. Louis, Detroit [Week 2]: Arizona, Tampa Bay, Minnesota
Perfect Game Score Predictions: 2   [Week 1]:Atlanta @ St. Louis  [Week 2]: Tampa Bay @ Minnesota


NOTE: The team with a negative number in parenthesis "(-3)" next to their name is the favorite to win the matchup and the number represents how many points the favorite has to score more than the underdog to count as a winning bet.  The over/under for the game is represented by a number in parenthesis with the letters o and u "(o/u 46)".  The number represents the amount of points you are wagering whether or not the two team's combined score will be in excess of or short of.  Official betting lines courtesy of www.footballlocks.com

So, without further adieu, the picks and analysis for NFL game wagers: Week 4...


Detroit @ Dallas(-1.5)  (o/u 46)

Savant Spread Pick: Detroit to win ~ 27-16
Over/Under Pick: Under 

Result: Detroit 34  Dallas 30 / Total Score 64 /
Winner: +  Spread: +  O/U: -

Though the Cowboys have two big wins in the last couple of weeks, the team has been severely exposed in the process and pulled out wins in the waning moments against two teams that are not considered in the upper echelon of quality teams in the NFL in Washington and San Francisco.  Romo is still sore with broken ribs and DT Suh is going to be a terror in the backfield.  Look for a few sacks from the Detroit defense, possibly knocking out Romo, and a complete shutdown of the Dallas running game.

Dallas has injuries in the secondary and are being anchored by inexperience.  Calvin Johnson will have a huge day in the vertical passing game.  Lions will win running away, but a lack of Dallas offense will fall short of the 46 point o/u threshold.


 
Jacksonville vs. New Orleans(-7)  (o/u 45)

Savant Spread Pick: New Orleans and the points to win ~ 31-17
Over/Under Pick: Over 

Result: Jacksonville 10  New Orleans 23 / Total Score 33 /
Winner: +  Spread: +  O/U: -  

This game is in Jacksonville, but the Jags have little to no home-field advantage in the NFL.  New Orleans is firing on all cylinders despite missing their top WR Marques Colston, who is due to return to the lineup this Sunday.  His return only makes that ridiculous passing attack even stronger.  The way they stretch the field with their speedy WR's gives tons of room underneath for lightning-bug, Darren Sproles, to catch the ball and gain big chunks of yards against a mediocre Jags D.

Jacksonville has their young buck QB, Blaine Gabbert, making his second start and it's not going to get any easier for him this week.  The Saints swallowed up Jay Cutler of the Bears with blitz schemes and they will do the same to the young QB.  MJD and the running attack for Jacksonville will be the only reason they will score a couple of TD's in the game.  This is a rout that ends up in the over because of the Saints' high powered offense putting up lots of points.

 
San Francisco @ Philadelphia(-9)  (o/u 44.5)

Savant Spread Pick: San Francisco with the points; Philadelphia to win ~ 21-17
Over/Under Pick: Under 

Result: San Francisco 24  Philadelphia 23 / Total Score 21 /
Winner: -  Spread: +  O/U: -

This is a game that Philly will win but it's going to be a lot closer than the spread is indicating.  In fact, if their is a game to bet on with the spread it is this one.  Michael Vick has proven that he is as fragile as we were all afraid he'd be in 2011.  He's only finished 1 of 3 games thus far.  He may make an early exit again this week if not at least have hindered play with his badly bruised non-throwing hand.

LeSean McCoy is a nice back between the 20's but the Eagles still lack that goal-line presence at running back you need when it's time to grind out the tough, red-zone yards.  The Eagles will likely score their points with big plays from DeSean Jackson or Jeremy Maclin.  The 49ers are an under-appreciated defense that will stop the run against Philly and will do some running of their own behind Frank Gore and facing the Eagles 32nd ranked rush defense.  49ers make a game of this, but come up a little short.  Good defense from the 49ers and some bad offense from the 49ers will keep this game in the under.




St. Louis vs. Washington(-1.5)  (o/u 43.5)

Savant Spread Pick: Washington and the points to win ~ 23-17
Over/Under Pick: Under

Result: St. Louis 10  Washington 17 / Total Score 27 /
Winner: +  Spread: +  O/U: + 
*Trifecta*


The Rams were supposed to be a stronger team this year but have failed to live up to the preseason billing.  With leading receiver Danny Amendola banged up and the offensive line giving up a near league leading 11 sacks, the passing game has suffered greatly.  This team will be better with their MVP RB Steven Jackson due to return and appears to be 100%, but it won't be enough to get the job done against a better-than-advertised Redskins team.  Rex Grossman is proving that he can be a solid pro QB in the NFL and his new favorite target, Santana Moss, has been making big plays alongside new standout TE Fred Davis.

St. Louis has done little to show it can win this game with an offense that is one-dimensional because of injuries to key skill position players and the defense was torched last week in the passing game to Joe Flacco and the Ravens.  The Skins new rushing attack behind the newly acquired Tim Hightower and that classic Mike Shanahan zone blocking scheme, the Skins should be able to move the ball down the field with little deterrence.  This game is more about what St. Louis will not do than what Washington WILL do.  Neither offense is explosive and neither have much TD success in the red-zone so this game will stay in the under because of several chip-shot field goals.  

Tennessee @ Cleveland(-1)  (o/u 39)

Savant Spread Pick: Tennessee to win ~ 19-16
Over/Under Pick: Over

Result: Tennessee 31  Cleveland 13 / Total Score 44 /
Winner: +  Spread: +  O/U: - 

The loss of Kenny Britt for the season for Tennessee will be a major blow to the offense, but look for WR Nate Washington to pick up some slack in his absence.  He is a nice WR2 who can be a decent WR1 but won't fully fill those Kenny Britt shoes.  Chris Johnson has been pedestrian at best, but he is too good to be held down for this long.  He'll break out and have his first 100 yard rushing game of the season versus a marginal Cleveland defense that is worse in 2011 without former D-Coordinator, Rob Ryan, who took his talents to Dallas.

Cleveland's Colt McCoy is making small and steady strides toward being an effective game manager in the NFL at QB, but he is still a project underway and he's not ready to step it up just yet, especially against a Tennessee defense that is better than most realize.  The real sleeper here though has been Matt Hasselbeck, who was thought of as a 1 year replacement for Vince Young in 2011, but has two consecutive 300+ passing yard games for the Titans. The only thing that separates the Titans and the Browns for this game is one homerun play by Chris Johnson on a long TD run, which I anticipate we will see at least one of in this game.  I'm still taking the under though, because I don't see much consistent offense happening in this game.

 
Cincinnati vs Buffalo(-3)  (o/u 43.5)

Savant Spread Pick: Buffalo and the points to win ~ 28-24
Over/Under Pick: Over

Result: Cincinnati 23  Buffalo 20 / Total Score 43 /
Winner: -  Spread: -  O/U: - 
*Strikeout*

Buffalo is coming off of an emotional win to snap a 15 game losing streak against the Patriots so I expect a bit of a let down from the Bills this week against the Bengals, but it won't be enough to lose this game to a team that scored 6 points on offense last week against the 49ers.  The Bills defense has been a bit suspect in the last couple of games and I expect that Cedric Benson, Andy Dalton and A.J. Green will have some nice moments on offense, but it's going to come up just short against a Bills offense that is lighting people up right now with Ryan Fitzpatrick and his already 9 passing TD's in three games.  The Bills high powered offense and mediocre D will make for a decently high scoring game; enough to push it past the over.


Kansas City vs. Minnesota(-1.5)  (o/u 39.5)

Savant Spread Pick: Minnesota to win ~ 31-19
Over/Under Pick: Over

Result: Kansas City 22  Minnesota 17 / Total Score 39 /
Winner: -  Spread: -  O/U: -
 *Strikeout*

A battle of two 0-3 teams, but only one of them has looked like a truly winless team and that is the Chiefs. Kansas City has been outscored by opponents, 109-27!   Meanwhile, the 0-3 Vikings have had a series of monumental collapses in the second half, blowing double digit leads in every game.  The Vikings are an extremely hard team to gauge because they look like a 13-3 type of team in the first half and a 3-13 type of team in the second half in 2011.  The common denominator for this game though is the league's most fearsome back, Adrian Peterson who I expect to absolutely torch the Chiefs defense without top tackling safety Eric Berry who was lost for the year against Buffalo.  Donavon McNabb will do enough to manage the game and not lose it for the Vikes and Peterson will have 25-29 carries en route to the blowout win which will catapult this game into the over.
 
Carolina @ Chicago(-6.5)  (o/u 42.5)

Savant Spread Pick: Carolina with the points; Chicago to win ~ 16-13
Over/Under Pick: Under


Result: Carolina 29  Chicago 34 / Total Score 63 /
Winner: +  Spread: +  O/U: - 

Cam Newton didn't wow last week but did pick up his first career win against Jacksonville on the road.  He had to come back to earth at some point and count on him staying grounded as his two game outburst will prove to be a complete anomaly as defenses get more tape on his tendencies and better expose his weaknesses.  If any team can ground a QB it's Chicago, especially at home.  You may remember they stifled Matt Ryan and the Falcons offense at home in week one.  They will do the same against Carolina.  

Chicago's biggest problem is that they still do not have a real number one WR on the team.  They can't go vertical all that well and Matt Forte has proven to be their only consistent offensive option running or receiving.  When your RB is your top receiver, who have major issues at WR.  Their offense won't do much, but it will be just enough to top the score that the vaunted Chicago D will hold Cam and Co. to on Sunday.  Great Chicago D and poor Chicago O will keep this game in the under.  

Pittsburgh @ Houston(-4)  (o/u 45)

Savant Spread Pick: Houston and the points to win ~ 26-21
Over/Under Pick: Over
 
Result: Pittsburgh 10  Houston 17 / Total Score 27 /
Winner: +  Spread: +  O/U: - 

The Texans, as good as they are, are even better a team at home than on the road and Pittsburgh has not done traditionally well traveling west to play on the road.   The Steelers have been showing signs that this is a defense that is going to need to be revamped after this season.  They are just not playing with the speed and discipline that they are accustomed to in Pittsburgh.  Houston can, and will, take advantage of the Steelers slower defense with their high powered receiver, Andre Johnson and they will be playing their fist game with last year's rushing champion, Arian Foster finally healthy from his hamstring tear.

The Steelers also showed a glaring weakness at offensive line where former pass rusher extraordinaire, Dwight Freeney looked like it was 2008 all over again the way he was dominating that pass blocking.  If an older Freeney can dominate the line against the Steelers, a younger, better version of Freeney, in Mario Williams, will have a field day sacking QB Big Ben and hitting RB Mendenhall in the backfield for losses.  Because of the high powered Texans offense and the expectation that Mike Wallace and Big Ben will connect on a homerun or two for a couple of TD's, this game nips the over.  

Seattle vs. Atlanta(-4.5)  (o/u 38.5)

Savant Spread Pick: Atlanta and the points to win ~ 24-10
Over/Under Pick: Under

Result: Seattle 28  Atlanta 30 / Total Score 58 /
Winner: +  Spread: -  O/U: - 

Seattle managed to squeak out a win against the Cardinals last week, but you can count on that being one of the very few they have this season.  Atlanta should have no problem handling the Seahawks, even having to travel 2,500 miles for the game.  The far travel west would normally be a disadvantage to a team traveling but the Seahawks are just that bad.  There isn't much to say that isn't already known about these teams.  Turner will have a big game along with Ryan , White and Jones in that Atlanta offense and we all know how bad Tavaris Jackson is and that terrible running game with Marshawn Lynch and the porous O-line.  I can't name anyone on that Seahawk defense other than Lofa Tatupu, who has had a marginal season thus far.  Seahawks won't score enough to warrant taking the over, even at a low 38.5.


Arizona vs. New York(N)(-1)  (o/u 44.5)

Savant Spread Pick: New York(N) and the points to win ~ 24-13
Over/Under Pick: Over

Result: Arizona 10  New York(N) 17 / Total Score 27 /
Winner: +  Spread: +  O/U: -

The score prediction for this game has less to do with what I think of New York's offense and more to do with just how bad the Cardinals have been, especially with the expectations that bringing in QB Kevin Kolb made for this team.  It's been well documented just how bad the Seahawks are and they managed to beat the Cardinals last week 13-10.  How they are so bad, it's a bit of a mystery with the talent they have at WR, QB and RB.

The Giants, though decimated by injury, have good depth with the emergence of WR Cruz filling in for the injured WR Hixon, who was lost for the year two weeks ago.  Seattle had a good day running the ball against Arizona with their make-shift line and average RB.  With that though, what will the speedy RB Bradshaw and the big-man RB Jacobs do to this defense on Sunday?  I expect a rushing TD for both NYG RB's.  Arizona is bad, but they have enough capability to put up some points on the big play with WR Larry Fitzgerald.  They will do enough to help the Giants squeak out the over.

 
Miami @ San Diego(-7)  (o/u 44.5)

Savant Spread Pick: San Diego and the points to win ~ 26-13
Over/Under Pick: Under


Result: Miami 16  San Diego 26 / Total Score 39 /
Winner: +  Spread: +  O/U: +
*Trifecta* 

Death, taxes and a slow start from the Chargers are all things in life it seems we can rely on happening every year.  They have looked very average against some mediocre teams but I think they break out a bit on offense against Miami, who has looked pretty bad in a couple of games, including a Tom Brady 500+ yard passing night in week 1.  As expected, Reggie Bush isn't handling a full work load, and the relief he's gotten from surging rookie RB Daniel Thomas won't be available to help alleviate the pressure on the Dolphins' running attack.

Last time I checked, the Chargers still have QB sensation Philip Rivers, WR stud Vincent Jackson and that dual threat running attack in Mike Tolbert and Ryan Matthews, who has started to fulfill last year's potential.  Miami will play with lots of desperation, which will keep the game close early and Brandon Marshall will have an impact, but San Diego will eventually pull away.  A desperate Miami team without Thomas won't be enough to help a powerful San Diego offense put up enough points for the over.


Denver @ Green Bay(-12.5)  (o/u 46)

Savant Spread Pick: Denver with the points; Green Bay to win ~ 28-20
Over/Under Pick: Under
 

Result: Denver 23  Green Bay 49 / Total Score 72 /
Winner: +  Spread: -  O/U: - 

Green Bay played a good game against Chicago last week but nothing warranting any consideration that they are playing their best football.  Last week was more about Chicago's inability to cover TE Jermichael Finley, who had 3 TD's.  Denver looked ok in a close loss to Tennessee.  QB Kyle Orton had a positive day with a couple TD passes along with a couple picks.  Green Bay has not been perfect on defense either, they can be exposed a bit in the passing game.  The Bears just didn't have the personnel at WR to threaten them.  Denver has under-rated, WR Brandon Lloyd back this week and will open up the offense for Willis McGahee and expect the run offense to have their moments.  In the end, it's not nearly enough to win, but the Broncos will be competitive enough to cover a 12.5 spread and they will play well enough on offense to push the over.  


Oakland vs. New England(-4)  (o/u 55)

Savant Spread Pick: Oakland to win ~ 35-28
Over/Under Pick: Over 


Result: Oakland 19  New England 31 / Total Score 50 / 
Winner: -  Spread: -  O/U: -
*Strikeout* 

This game should play out to be one of the most explosive of the year.  Brady could end up with 400+ yards, TE Gronkowski could have 150+ and a couple of TD's and don't be surprised if Darren McFadden eclipses 160 yards rushing against a woefully bad Patriot defense.  Oakland is the real deal and that offensive line is crushing opposing front sevens.  McFadden should completely take over this game while Jason Campbell quietly has a 300+ yard passing game.  As you can see from the score prediction, I am predicting no field goals in the game.  I will be surprised if either team punts more than twice.  It will be an absolute shootout and it will be the Raider defense that contains the Pat offense just enough to outscore them behind McFadden and the punishing O-line.  The over is a given.  There will be little defense played in this game.
 

New York(A) @ Baltimore(-3.5)  (o/u 42)

Savant Spread Pick: Baltimore to win ~ 21-20
Over/Under Pick: Under
 
Result: New York(A) 17  Baltimore 34 / Total Score 39 /
Winner: +  Spread: -  O/U: -

This game will play out as the closest all week.  Games between these teams always play out very closely and are heavy on defense and punishing hits.  The Jets showed some chinks in their armor versus the Raiders in their run defense when they got torched by Darren McFadden.  The task won't be any easier this week facing an equally dominating back, RB Ray Rice.  Ravens' QB Joe Flacco has proven this far in the season that he's taken the next step to being an elite QB by improving his vertical passing game, especially with new standout WR rookie Torrey Smith, who had a 150+ yard game with three TD's last week.

Sanchez and company will make their share of plays for the Jets, but they will come up a play or two short.  Shonn Green isn't developing into the elite back he seemed destined to be and LT is just another year older.  Not that Tomlinson can't be an effective back, but the elite days are far over for him. Santonio Holmes should have a nice day but will mostly be held in check by S Ed Reed and that secondary.  This game will be so full of defense, they will bump up against the over but no chance they exceed it.


Indianapolis @ Tampa Bay(-10)  (o/u 40.5)

Savant Spread Pick: Tampa Bay and the points to win ~ 31-10
Over/Under Pick: Over

Result: Indianapolis 17  Tampa Bay 24 / Total Score 41 /
Winner: +  Spread: -  O/U: + 


The most important thing to know about this game is that the Colts will be starting QB Curtis Painter, who has never before made an NFL start.  He looks good at times, but he makes more very bad mistakes as he just doesn't have the experience needed to lead an NFL offense.  Tampa Bay will be salivating at the opportunity to take the field against the young QB making his first start.

Joseph Addai will get his share of work, but that Tampa D will be stacking the box to stop the run and dare the inexperienced Painter to beat them throwing the ball.  Tampa Bay still has LeGarrett Blount at RB and expect him to have a big day running the ball.  Dwight Freeney and that pass rush may get after QB Josh Freeman of the Bucs a bit and cause a turnover or two, but this Tampa offense will roll on a weak Colts D that is better built to protect a lead than it is making a comeback.  The Colts poor offense behind Curtis Painter will create bad field position making for easy scores for the Bucs who are traditionally very difficult at home in recent years.  

I hope this guide proved to be helpful!  Look out for my NFL picks each and every week!

NFL 2011 - Betting Lines - Picks To Win, Versus the Spread and the Over/Under: Week 3

I'm not much of a gambler, but I know many of you are!  So, this year I will be helping out my friends who like to make wagers versus the spread.  Here, I will try provide some insight on how the matchups within the game can work to your advantage when making a wager.  Making good picks is all about good information.  Week 2 of the NFL season was a big week for some key player injuries, so gauging picks and final scores will come down to key inury factors this week and the weeks to come.  Injuries are a part of the game and that's why you should be considering who is in and out of the games to make sound wagers.  Here is how I fared in Week 2 and my overall record to date:


*WEEK 2 - RESULTS* 

Winner: 12-4
Winner w/ Spread: 6-8-2
Over/Under: 9-6-1

Trifecta: 2
Perfect Team Score Predictions: 3  (Arizona, Tampa Bay, Minnesota)
Perfect Game Score Predictions: 1  (Tampa Bay @ Minnesota)
 
___________


*2011 Overall Record*

Winner: 22-10 (.688)
Winner w/ Spread: 14-16-2 (.467)
Over/Under: 16-14-2 (.533)

Trifecta: 6
Perfect Team Score Predictions: 6
Perfect Game Score Predictions: 2


NOTE: The team with a negative number in parenthesis "(-3)" next to their name is the favorite to win the matchup and the number represents how many points the favorite has to score more than the underdog to count as a winning bet.  The over/under for the game is represented by a number in parenthesis with the letters o and u "(o/u 46)".  The number represents the amount of points you are wagering whether or not the two team's combined score will be in excess of or short of.  Official betting lines courtesy of www.footballlocks.com

So, without further adieu, the picks and analysis for NFL game wagers: Week 3...



San Francisco @ Cincinnati(-2.5)  (o/u 40.5)

Savant Spread Pick: San Francisco to win ~ 20-16
Over/Under Pick: Under


Result: San Francisco 13  Cincinnati 8 / Total Score 21 /
Winner: +  Spread: +  O/U: + 
*Trifecta*


Key Injuries: [SF] FB Moran Norris(Out), WR Braylon Edwards(Out); [CIN] WR Jordan Shipley(Out)

The 49ers come into the matchup off their first loss of the season at home to the Cowboys in what was a highly competitive game that was supposed to be an easy win for Dallas.  The Bengals are coming off of a 2-point heartbreaking loss to the Broncos in Denver.  The 49ers looked surprisingly good for a team that played without their No. 1 and No. 2 WR's for almost the entire game and gave the high-powered Cowboys offense some problems that they weren't expected to.  Cincinnati looked awful against a Broncos team that is set to win all of 4 or 5 games all season.

There is no question that the loss of Braylon Edwards will have an effect on the passing game for the 49ers but backup receivers picked up the slack last week and breakout player, Ted Ginn Jr. is itching for another big kick return and will factor more in the passing game this week.  The running game will be effected by the loss of Moran Norris, but Frank Gore is more than capable of making big plays with little blocking.  There is little positive to take from last week's loss to Denver except the exceptional play of rookie QB Andy Dalton.  Cedric Benson's announced suspension that starts next week may prove to be a distraction as well.  In the end, the 49er run defense, which is one of the best in the NFL will break down Benson and the running game and allow the secondary an extra man or two to keep A.J. Green, the only receiver of consequence for Cincy, in check down the field.




Buffalo vs. New England(-8)  (o/u 53.5)

Savant Spread Pick: Buffalo with the points; New England to win ~ 35-28
Over/Under Pick: Over

Result: Buffalo 34  New England 31 / Total Score 65 /
Winner: -  Spread: +  O/U: +
 

Key Injuries: [BUF] WR Roscoe Parrish(Questionable), CB Terrence McGee(Questionable); [NE] TE Aaron Hernanez(Doubtful), TE Dan Gronkowski(Probable), DT Albert Haynesworth(Questionable), C Dan Koppen(Out for Season)

Buffalo comes off of a week 2 thrashing of the dismantled KC Chiefs and the Patriots come off a big week 2 win against the NFL's number one offense and defense from 2010 in the San Diego Chargers.  There's no question that both of these teams can score lots of points, an unusual place for the Bills to find themselves in recent years.  New England has shown the dominance on offense that everyone has gotten accustomed to over the last decade, but what most people are not noticing is that their secondary is very poor thus far in 2011.

This game will very likely play out as a major shootout between two very good offenses.  Bills QB Ryan Fitzpatrick is coming of age and is finding his new favorite weapon, Steve Johnson at WR.  Expect a big game from RB1 Fred Jackson also.  Though they will put up points, they just won't be able to keep up with the scorching pace that the New England Patriots are putting up on offense against some very good NFL defenses in the last two weeks.  I expect the Pats to keep a solid lead throughout, but look for a late score from the Bills to bring the game to within the 8 point spread.



Houston @ New Orleans(-4)  (o/u 53)

Savant Spread Pick: New Orleans and the points to win ~ 32-24
Over/Under Pick: Over

Result: Houston 33  New Orleans 40 / Total Score 77 /
Winner: +  Spread: +  O/U: +
*Trifecta*


Key Injuries:  [HOU] RB Arian Foster(Doubtful) LB DeMeco Ryans(Questionable) WR Kevin Walter(Questionable); [NO] WR Marques Colston(Out), CB Tracy Porter(Questionable), LB Jonathon Vilma(Questionable)

The Texans come into this week coming off of a big win over the sliding Miami Dolphins in Miami and the Saints are coming off of a beat-down of the Chicago Bears.  The most important factor in this game will be the health of Arian Foster, which is majorly in doubt on this Friday morning.  This outcome assumes he doesn't play on Sunday, which is expected.

Houston has had a nice season thus far on the offensive side of the ball, but they are yet to face a defense of the caliber of the New Orleans Saints, in the Superdome where that D plays it's best football. If we know anything about the Bears, it's that they give up sacks, but the Saints D was ferocious in its pursuit of Jay Cutler, racking up a number of sacks and knockdowns.  They'll get after Matt Schaub in the 'Dome and get the Texan offense off schedule.  Expect Andre Johnson to get his numbers, but Drew and new choice weapon Darren Sproles and Co. are going to light up the scoreboard.  The Texans are 26th against the run.  Pierre Thomas and Mark Ingram could also have very big days.  Saints roll.



New York(N) @ Philadelphia(-8)  (o/u 48.5)

Savant Spread Pick: Philadelphia and the points to win ~ 31-17
Over/Under Pick: Under


Result: New York(N) 29  Philadelphia 16 / Total Score 35 /
Winner: -  Spread: -  O/U: +

Key Injuries: [NYG] WR Prince Amukamara(Questionable), WR Mario Manningham(Questionable), WR Domenik Hixon(Out for Season), TE Kevin Boss(Questionable), Richard Seymour(Questionable); [PHI] QB Michael Vick(Questionable)


The Eagles come into this game off a tough loss to the Falcons in Atlanta where the Eagles played most of the game without a concussed Michael Vick.  The Giants come off a Monday Night Football victory over the Rams where the score of the game was really no indication of just how poorly they played.  Though the Giants took care of the Rams, it took three field goals by the Rams inside the 5 yard line and a fluke lateral play that was mishandled and returned for a defensive TD.  For all intensive purposes, the Giants were outplayed by the Rams, behind Sam Bradford who had his first 300 yard game of his career.

The Eagles were the opposite of the Giants last week.  They lost a game in which they outplayed their opponent in Atlanta, yet lost the game greatly due to the fact that they lost the league's most dynamic player, Michael Vick to a concussion in the game.  His backup, Kafka, did a nice job, but it definitely cost them a win.  The Eagles looked too good in their loss and the Giants looked too poor in their win to have any faith the Giants can pull off a win thsi week.  Add that to the fact that they are decimated by a flurry of injuries to starters, including their WR2 Mario Manningham who has a concussion and Domenik Hixon, who tore his ACL last week.  Osi Umenyiora is still unlikely to play as well.  Eagles have too much firepower and the Giants don't have enough healthy bodies to stop it.  Eagles win big.


 Miami @ Cleveland(-2.5)  (o/u 41)

Savant Spread Pick: Miami to win ~ 24-13
Over/Under Pick: Under 

Result: Miami 17  Cleveland 16 / Total Score 33 /
Winner: -  Spread: -  O/U: +



Key Injuries: [MIA] Vontae Davis(Questionable); [CLE] None


Miami comes into this game off of a tough loss at home at the hands of the Houston Texans and Cleveland comes into the game coming off of a win over the hapless Colts in Indy.  Miami is a difficult team to figure out as they exploded on offense against the Patriots in a loss and then laid down on offense against a very beatable Houston defense.  Rookie RB Daniel Thomas now figures into the offense after his first career 100-yard rushing game last week and I expect him to be a factor in this game and the rest of the season.  Miami QB Chad Henne has been a highly under-rated player this season mostly because of the Dolphins two losses in two games.


Cleveland is a team that has proven nothing at 1-1 with a win over a Colts team that will be lucky to win 4 games and a LOSS against the Broncos who will be lucky to win 4 games.  There is little to say positive about this team at this point of the season.  QB Colt McCoy is still a work in progress to becoming even a decent NFL QB and they still don't have any threats at wideout that scare any secondaries.  Teams can key on RB1 Peyton Hillis because he is the only potent weapon they possess.  Hillis alone can bowl through eight-man fronts, but not that effectively against the higher rated LBs in the league.  Miami will have enough firepower to throttle Hillis and the Browns won't offer much more pop outside of a few big plays from TE Ben Watson.  I see no reason the desperate Dolphins won't pull this one out against a Browns team that is inferior in talent.

 

Denver @ Tennessee(-6)  (o/u 42.5)

Savant Spread Pick: Tennessee and the points to win ~ 24-13
Over/Under Pick: Under 

Result: Denver 14  Tennessee 17 / Total Score 31 /
Winner: +  Spread: -  O/U: +


Key Injuries: [DEN] WR Eddie Royal(Out), WR Demaryius Thomas(Out), DE Elvis Dumervil(Out), CB Champ Bailey(Questionable), RB Knowshon Moreno(Questionable) None; [TEN] S Chris Hope(Questionable)

Denver enters this game off of an unexpected win versus the Browns at home and the Titans come in from a big upset win over the Ravens.  The Broncos simply have too many key players hurt and banged up to compete with the Titans quick-strike offense and solid D.  RB1 Chris Johnson and WR1 Kenny Britt have both proven over time that they are capable of taking a run or catch the distance on any given play.  The Broncos are a team that have trouble defending against the big play.  Chris Johnson should record his first 100 yard game.  Hasselbeck will throw for 350+ yards.  No reason to think this will be very competitive.  Tennessee wins handily in this one.


Minnesota vs. Detroit(-3)  (o/u 45)

Savant Spread Pick: Minnesota to win ~ 26-23
Over/Under Pick: Over

Result: Minnesota 23  Detroit 26 / Total Score 49 /
Winner: -  Spread: push  O/U: +



Jacksonville @ Carolina(-3.5)  (o/u 43)

Savant Spread Pick: Carolina and the points to win ~ 31-10
Over/Under Pick: Under

Result: Jacksonville 10  Carolina 16 / Total Score 26 /
Winner: +  Spread: +  O/U: +

 

Kansas City @ San Diego(-14.5)  (o/u 44.5)

Savant Spread Pick: San Diego and the points to win ~ 44-6
Over/Under Pick:Over 

Result: Kansas City 17  San Diego 20 / Total Score 37 /
Winner: +  Spread: -  O/U: -


 

Oakland @ New York(A)(-3)  (o/u 41)

Savant Spread Pick: Oakand to win ~ 16-13
Over/Under Pick: Under

Result: Oakland 34  New York(A) 24 / Total Score 58 /
Winner: +  Spread: +  O/U: -



 
St. Louis vs. Baltimore(-5)  (o/u 42)

Savant Spread Pick: Baltimore and the points to win ~ 24-16
Over/Under Pick: Under

Result: St. Louis 7  Baltimore 37 / Total Score 44 /
Winner: +  Spread: +  O/U: -

  



Atlanta @ Tampa Bay(-1.5)  (o/u 45.5)

Savant Spread Pick: Atlanta to win ~ 26-21
Over/Under Pick: Over 

Result: Atlanta 13  Tampa Bay 16 / Total Score 29 /
Winner: -  Spread: -  O/U: -

 


Seattle vs. Arizona(-3.5)  (o/u 43.5)

Savant Spread Pick: Seattle to win ~ 19-17
Over/Under Pick: Under

Result: Seattle 13  Arizona 10 / Total Score 23 /
Winner: +  Spread: +  O/U: +
*Trifecta*

 


Chicago vs. Green Bay(-4)  (o/u 45.5)

Savant Spread Pick: Chicago to win ~ 13-10
Over/Under Pick: Under 

Result: Chicago 17  Green Bay 27 / Total Score 44 /
Winner: -  Spread: -  O/U: +


 

Indianapolis vs. Pittsburgh(-10.5)  (o/u 39.5)

Savant Spread Pick: Pittsburgh and the points to win ~ 32-3
Over/Under Pick: Under

Result: Indianapolis 20  Pittsburgh 23 / Total Score 43 /
Winner: +  Spread: -  O/U: -  




Washington @ Dallas(-4.5)  (o/u 45.5)

Savant Spread Pick: Washington to win ~ 17-16
Over/Under Pick: Under

Result: Washington 16  New England 18 / Total Score 34 /
Winner: -  Spread: -  O/U: + 


 

I hope this guide proved to be helpful!  Look out for my picks each and every week of the NFL

NFL 2011 - Betting Lines - Picks To Win, Versus the Spread and the Over/Under: Week 2

I'm not much of a gambler, but I know many of you are!  So, this year I will be helping out my friends who like to make wagers versus the spread.  Here, I will try provide some insight on how the matchups within the game can work to your advantage when making a wager.  Making good picks is all about good information.  Week 1 of the NFL season chalked up many surprises, so being accurate with picks was difficult.  Some risky picks panned out, several "sure thing" picks did not.  hey, that's why it's the NFL and as Chris Berman would say, "That's why they play the games!"  Here is how I fared:

*WEEK 1 - RESULTS* (and overall record)

Winner: 10-6
Winner w/ Spread: 8-8
Over/Under: 7-8-1

Trifecta: 3
Perfect Team Score Predictions: 3 (Atlanta, St. Louis, Detroit)
Perfect Game Score Predictions: 1 (Atlanta @ St. Louis)

-------

*WEEK 2 - RESULTS UPDATE* 

Winner: 12-4
Winner w/ Spread: 6-8-2
Over/Under: 9-6-1

Trifecta: 2
Perfect Team Score Predictions: 3  (Arizona, Tampa Bay, Minnesota)
Perfect Game Score Predictions: 1  (Tampa Bay @ Minnesota)

NOTE: The team with a negative number in parenthesis "(-3)" next to their name is the favorite to win the matchup and the number represents how many points the favorite has to score more than the underdog to count as a winning bet.  The over/under for the game is represented by a number in parenthesis with the letters o and u "(o/u 46)".  The number represents the amount of points you are wagering whether or not the two team's combined score will be in excess of or short of.  Official betting lines courtesy of www.footballlocks.com

So, without further adieu, the picks and analysis for wagers versus the spread for the NFL: Week 2...


Chicago @ New Orleans(-6.5)  (o/u 47.5)

Savant Spread Pick: Chicago with the points; New Orleans to win ~ 20-16
Over/Under Pick: Under

Result: Chicago 13  New Orleans 30 / Total Score 43 /
Winner: +  Spread: -  O/U: + 

Key Injuries: [CHI] RB Marion Barber(Doubtful), WR Roy Williams(Questionable); [NO] WR Marques Colston(Out), K Garrett Hartley(Out), CB Tracy Porter(Questionable)


Chicago enters this game a week after an upset of the Atlanta Falcons at home and the Saints come in a week removed from an Aaron Rodgers arial attack that resulted in a loss.  Both teams looked impressive in their game play, New Orleans just happened to run into a buzz-saw known as the defending World Champions of the NFL, the Green Bay Packers.


Marques Colston is a very important loss for the Saints and will effect their ability to score like the machine that they have been in the past, but they have very capable backup receivers in Meachem and Henderson to pick up the slack in addition to that three-headed running attack with Thomas, Sproles and Ingram.  Chicago still has little talent at the WR position allowing teams to tee-off on Jay Cutler at any time.  The Flacons gave the Bears a gift TD last week on several missed tackles leading to a 50 yard score by RB Matt Forte.  The Saints D is too sound to make such a poor effort and will contain the Bears offense most of the day.


If Colston was healthy for this, I would have the Saints to win with the points, but I think the subtraction of Colston reduces the number of points the Saints score and Brian Urlacher, fresh off of his mother's death on Monday will play inspired defense but it won't be enough.  Saints win in a close one.




Kansas City @ Detroit(-8)  (o/u 45)

Savant Spread Pick: Detroit and the points to win ~ 31-17
Over/Under Pick: Over




Result: Kansas City 3  Detroit 48 / Total Score 51 /
Winner: +  Spread: +  O/U: + 
*Trifecta*


Key Injuries: [KC] Eric Berry(Out for Season); [DET] Nick Fairley(Out), Calvin Johnson(Questionable)

The Lions are coming off of a big win on the road versus Tampa Bay and the Chiefs are still trying to collect themselves after being embarrassed at home at the hands of the Buffalo Bills.  The loss of Eric Berry is going to be huge for the Chiefs in this game and for the season.  Berry, a third year player and former Pro-Bowl player, tore his ACL last week.  He was the only bright spot in what will now be a bad secondary for the Chiefs.  The Lions will take advantage of the loss of Eric Berry with All-World WR Calvin Johnson(despite a tweaked ankle) and look for a big game from WR2 Nate Burleson as Johnson may see a share of double coverage.


The Lions will be without first round selection, DT Nick Fairley again for this game, which may give Chiefs RB1 Jamaal Charles some running room between the tackles, but it won't be enough to sustain long drives against a pretty good Lions D playing on their home turf.  I like the Lions to win pretty handily in this one.

 
Jacksonville @ New York(A)(-9)  (o/u 39)

Savant Spread Pick: Jacksonville with the points; New York(A) to win ~ 20-13
Over/Under Pick: Under

Result: Jacksonville 3  New York(A) 32 / Total Score 35 /
Winner: +  Spread: -  O/U: + 

Key Injuries:  [JAX] TE Marcedes Lewis(Doubtful); [NYJ] WR Santonio Holmes(Questionable)

Jacksonville comes into the game having beat Tennessee in a very close match at home last week and the Jets beat the Cowboys on two "gift" turnovers by Tony Romo.  Despite beating the Cowboys at home last week, the Jets were outplayed in all facets of the game and did not overly impress.  They are lucky to run into the woeful Jaguars this week as they seem to be out of sync on offense a bit.  The Jags may be a good place for the Jets to start getting their rhythm on offense.

Both of these team's top pass catchers have injuries, but it appears the Jags TE Marcedes Lewis is unlikely to play leaving inexperienced QB1 Luke McCown without the safety valve he desperately needs, especially against an extremely talented Jets secondary.  RB1 Maurice Jones-Drew will get his share of the workload and will get his numbers, but it won't be enough.  The Jags D did a great job bottling up RB1 Chris Johnson of the Titans last week and will probably be effective against the Jets run game but Sanchez can make enough plays in the passing game to put this team over the top. 


Oakland @ Buffalo(-3)  (o/u 42)

Savant Spread Pick: Buffalo and the points to win ~ 27-20
Over/Under Pick: Over

Result: Oakland 35  Buffalo 38 / Total Score 73 /
Winner: +  Spread: push  O/U: + 

Key Injuries: [OAK] WR Jacoby Ford(Out), WR Louis Murphy(Out), WR Darius Heyward-Bay(Questionable), TE Kevin Boss(Questionable), Richard Seymour(Questionable); [BUF] Terrance McGee


Oakland comes into this game having beat bitter division rival Denver Broncos on Monday Night Football and the Bills are fresh off of their rout of the Chiefs on the road.  The Bills offense is the real deal led by rising star QB1 Ryan Fitzpatrick.  The dual-threat RB system they have running with RB1 Fred Jackson and RB2 C.J. Spiller will give the Raiders issues.  Oakland did not look very impressive against a Denver team that very well could end up with the #1 draft pick in 2012.  The Raiders have won their last 8 games against AFC West competition which is very good; however, they are 2-8 in their last ten games versus non-division opponents. 

On top of the fact that Oakland has struggled against non-division opponents, they have a host of key injuries including two out of their three starting WR's to miss this game.  With no one of consequence for QB Jason Campbell to throw to, the Bills can tee-off on RB Darren McFadden.  Buffalo shouldn't have any problems winning this game.

 Arizona @ Washington(-3.5)  (o/u 44)

Savant Spread Pick: Arizona and the points to win ~ 21-17
Over/Under Pick: Under

Result: Arizona 21  Washington 22 / Total Score 43 /
Winner: +  Spread: -  O/U: + 

Key Injuries: [ARI] None; [WAS] None

Arizona is coming off a near defeat to the hands of Carolina and Cam Newton's 400+ yard passing game and Washington comes in to this week off of an emotional upset over the rival Giants.  Neither team has any significant injuries and it is evident that the Cardinals have higher level talent than do the Redskins.  This should be the game that new QB1 Kvin Kolb and WR Larry Fitzgerald break out as one of the better QB/WR tandems in the country.


Washington needed a freak pass tip and interception from a rookie DE at the line of scrimmage that was returned for a touchdown to put themselves over the top against a Giants team that is looking worse by the day.  I wouldn't put much stock in the Redskins for last week's win.  It was an emotional game on the 10th anniversary of the 9/11 attacks and may have helped in the win in D.C.  No such motivating factor exists in this game versus the Cardinals.
 


Tennessee vs. Baltimore(-6)  (o/u 38)

Savant Spread Pick: Baltimore and the points to win ~ 26-13
Over/Under Pick: Over

Result: Tennessee 26  Baltimore 13 / Total Score 39 /
Winner: -  Spread: -  O/U: + 

Key Injuries: [TEN] None; [BAL] S Chris Hope(Out)

Tennessee comes into this game a week removed from a very close battle with the Jags in Jacksonville that resulted in a loss and the Ravens are hot off of the biggest beating of the Steelers they've produced in their franchise history.  The Ravens looked like a team that is on a mission last week and to everyone's surprise, the beat-down they put on the Steelers came through the air and not on the ground, which is unusual for the run-heavy Ravens.  QB Joe Flacco is hitting on all cylinders with a rejuvenated WR1 Anquan Boldin and new deep threat WR2 Lee Evans.

Tennessee struggled to get anything consistent going against a Jags team that is not very good on either side of the ball.  Their only TD came in a big play by Kenny Britt, but a team can't rely solely on big plays to be a consistent winner.  The way the Ravens stymied a very strong Steelers rush offense will have a big challenge in stopping one of the elite RB1's Chris Johnson.  QB Matt Hasselbeck is a serviceable QB, but he doesn't have the skills or weapons to be wildly effective.  Count on the Ravens to force a couple of turnovers in this one.  Though Johnson may get some numbers, the Ravens should win this game easily. 


Seattle @ Pittsburgh(-14)  (o/u 40)

Savant Spread Pick: Pittsburgh and the points to win ~ 32-10
Over/Under Pick: Over

Result: Seattle 0  Pittsburgh 24 / Total Score 24 /
Winner: +  Spread: +  O/U: -  


Key Injuries: [SEA] WR Sidney Rice(Out), T Robert Gallery(Questionable); [PIT] None

Seattle comes into this game off of what was a close game until the 49ers blew them out with Ted Ginn's two kick returns for TD's in less than a minute at the end of the game.  The Steelers come into the week off of one of the most embarrassing losses in franchise history.  This is the slam-dunk game of the week.  The only question will be whether or not the Steelers will manage to cover the gaudy 14 point spread set by Vegas bookies.  With WR Sidney Rice still out this week and the potential that the Seahawks' best offensive lineman, T Robert Gallery could also miss this game, the Seahawks can only hope to make it close, but it seems improbable that they can even keep it close, nonetheless win.



Carolina vs. Green Bay(-10)  (o/u 45.5)

Savant Spread Pick: Green Bay and the points to win ~ 31-3
Over/Under Pick: Under

Result: Carolina 23  Pittsburgh 30 / Total Score 53 /
Winner: +  Spread: -  O/U: -  


Key Injuries: [CAR] LB Jon Beason(Out for Season), T Jeff Otah(Out); [GB] LB Frank Zombo(Out)
 
The Packers come into this game having dominated a very good New Orleans team on the road and the Panthers are coming off the surprise QB debut of Cam Newton in a heartbreaking loss to the Cardinals in Arizona.  This game figures to be the biggest blowout of the week.  A rookie QB in his second start versus a Dom Capers lead defense is a recipe for disaster.  Add the high potency offense of the Green Bay Packers against a sub-par Carolina defense that will be minus it's best player, LB Jon Beason who was lost for the season last week.  Carolina has absolutely no chance in this game.  Consider the 10 point spread a gift from the football betting lines because the Packers will exceed that difference and more.


Tampa Bay @ Minnesota(-3)  (o/u 41.5)

Savant Spread Pick: Tampa Bay to win ~ 24-20
Over/Under Pick:Over

Result: Tampa Bay 24  Minnesota 20 / Total Score 44 /
Winner: +  Spread: +  O/U: +
*Perfect Prediction!* - *Trifecta*

Key Injuries: [TB] None; [MIN] None

Tampa Bay comes into the week coming off of a loss to another NFC North foe, Detroit, at home while Minnesota comes into this game off of a loss to the Chargers on the road.  The Tampa Bay defense may be a middle of the road kind of D, but the ineffectiveness of QB Donovan McNabb for the Vikings was alarming in week 1.  The Vikes still have a beast of a RB1 in Adrian Peterson, but the Bucs are good against the run and AP can't win this game on his own.

Tampa Bay has some nice offensive weapons that can take advantage of a Vikings defense that is traditionally very good but is down this year.  If it's not RB1 LeGarrett Blount amking the big runs, it will be QB1 Josh Freeman and their talented WR's and TE that will make the plays.  The Bucs will make just enough plays to win this one.


Cleveland @ Indianapolis(-2.5)  (o/u 39.5)

Savant Spread Pick: Cleveland to win ~ 17-13
Over/Under Pick: Under

Result: Cleveland 27  Indianapolis 19 / Total Score 46 /
Winner: +  Spread: +  O/U: -  


Key Injuries: [IND]QB Peyton Manning(Out), LB Gary Brackett(Out), LB Ernie Sims(Out); [CLE] None

Last week, the Browns suffered a loss at the hands of RB1 Cedric Benson and the Bengals and the Colts were crushed by division rival, Houston.  Both teams look pretty bad this year; something no one expected out of the Colts.  Without Peyton Manning, the colts are completely lost on offense as replacement QB(and former retiree), Kerry Collins, is having a hard time adjusting and gelling with this team he is very unfamiliar with.  The Colts being without one of their key LB's, Gary Brackett, adds to the struggles the Colts will have against a very good running game by the Browns starring RB1 Peyton Hillis.

Browns QB1 Colt McCoy has been effective as a passer pairing up with his favorite target, TE Benjamin Watson.  As beat up as the Colts are at important positions and the Cleveland defense not having to honor the passing game much with Collins at the helm for Indy, the Browns should have enough to get by the Colts by at least a field goal, if not more.
 
 San Francisco vs. Dallas(-3)  (o/u 42.5)

Savant Spread Pick: San Francisco to win ~ 21-20
Over/Under Pick: Under

Result: San Francisco 24  Dallas 27 / Total Score 51 /
Winner: -  Spread: push  O/U: -  


Key Injuries: [SF] WR Michael Crabtree(Questionable); [DAL] CB Terrance Newman(Out), Dez Bryant(Questionable) 

San Francisco comes into this game off of a big win at home in rookie head coach Jim Harbaugh's NFL debut while the Cowboys find themselves in a familiar situation coming off of a loss in a game they clearly should have won.  San Francisco couldn't get their running game going with RB1 beast Frank Gore and the pass offense was inconsistent and had trouble getting the ball down-field.  The Special teams play was outstanding though, setting up a kick return and punt return for a TD for the speedy returner, WR4/KR/PR Ted Ginn Jr.

Dallas outplayed the vaunted New York Jets last week and left the game a loser because of two extremely costly turnovers by QB1 Tony Romo at highly inopportune times.  The Cowboys most dynamic offensive weapon, WR2 Dez Bryant,  is unlikely to play in the game or at minimum will be much less effective than normal.  The Cowboys running game may be in trouble with the elevated play of new DT Ray McDonald and company who held Seattle's RB1 Marshawn Lynch to a marginal effort.  In the end, San Francisco makes one more play than Dallas and score the upset.



Miami vs. Houston(-3)  (o/u 42)

Savant Spread Pick: Miami to win ~ 19-14
Over/Under Pick: Under
 
Result: Miami 13  Houston 23 / Total Score 36 /
Winner: -  Spread: -  O/U: +  


Key Injuries: [MIA] None; [HOU] RB Derrick Ward

Last week Miami was scorched for 517 passing yards by the QB1 Tom Brady in a loss to the Patriots at home and Houston was busy last week laying a beat-down on the Peyton-less Colts. Though the Texans routed the Colts, it was more a story of Indy's offense being completely inept behind QB Kerry Collins.  The houston D will have a tougher time against an improved QB1 Chad Henne who threw for a "quiet" 417 yards against the Pats in the loss.

The Miami secondary is much better than what they showed on Monday Night Football against the powerhouse offense that is the New England Patriots.  They should return to the form that made them one of the top defenses in the NFL in 2010.  WR1 Andre Johnson will make plenty of big plays in this game, but it won't be enough to stave off RB1 Reggie Bush and WR1 Brandon Marshall who both should have good games against an average Texans D.


San Diego @ New England(-6.5)  (o/u 53.5)

Savant Spread Pick: San Diego with the points; New England to win ~ 31-27
Over/Under Pick: Over

Result: San Diego 21  New England 35 / Total Score 56 /
Winner: +  Spread: -  O/U: +  


Key Injuries: [SD] DE Luis Castillo; [NE] C Dan Koppen

The Chargers come into this week with a victory over the Vikings at home in week 1 and the Patriots come into this game after a record setting night on offense against the Dolphins on Monday Night Football.  The Patriots stat filled night on offense against the Dolphins was a reminder of why they have been so good for the last ten years, however, it was a distraction from their porous secondary.  The Pats have to get better on defense if they want to keep winning games this year.  It's a bad day when QB Chad Henne lights up your defense for 417 yards.

The Chargers were fortunate to escape with a home victory against an inferior Vikings team that was marginal in all facets of the game.  The Patriots will be a much greater test of how playoff ready this Charger team will be.  I expect QB Philip Rivers and WR's Vincent Jackson and Malcom Floyd to have huge games.  This will be a barn-burner and the combined score could reach the 60's.  I like the Pats at home, where they haven't lost in a long time, to win a high scoring game against the high flying Chargers but I don't expect them to cover the 6.5 point spread.

Cincinnati @ Denver(-3.5)  (o/u 40)

Savant Spread Pick: Cincinnati to win ~ 24-14
Over/Under Pick: Under

Result: Cincinnati 22  Denver 24 / Total Score 46 /
Winner: -  Spread: +  O/U: -  


Key Injuries: [CIN] None; [DEN] Demaryius Thomas(Out), Champ Bailey(Questionable), Elvis Dumervil(Questionable), Knowshon Moreno(Questionable), Brandon Lloyd(Questionable)

The Bengals handled the Browns for a week 1 victory and the Broncos took an ugly loss to the Raiders in a game that was not nearly as close as the score indicates.  The Broncos are just plain bad and that is already enough to make this a coin-toss between them and the below average Bengals, but then consider that several of the Broncos best players will either miss the game or be less than 100% with injuries and it makes Cleveland an easy pick to win.  Why Denver is a favorite in this game is beyond me.  It's as good as a free win if you are betting the spread.



Philadelphia @ Atlanta(-2.5)  (o/u 49.5)

Savant Spread Pick: Atlanta and the points to win ~ 24-21
Over/Under Pick: Under
 
Result: Philadelphia 31  Atlanta 35 / Total Score 66 /
Winner: +  Spread: +  O/U: -  


Key Injuries: [PHI] None; [ATL] DT Jonathon Babineaux

Coming into this game the Eagles are coming off of a road win against the Rams and the Falcons try to rebound after a surprising loss to the Bears in Chicago in week 1.  The Eagles looked like they were clicking on all cylinders last week vs. St. Louis, however, they're run defense looked highly suspect.  Even after perennial Pro-Bowl RB1 Steven Jackson went out of the game after just two carries for 58 yards, RB2 Carnell Williams continued to light them up.


The Falcons ran into a really hot defense in the Bears last week, but should get back on track offensively.  If they are going to win this game, it will have to be mostly on the ground as the Eagles have an oustanding secondary, but are very weak against the run.  Look for RB1 Michael Turner to have a big day for Atlanta and give them enough points to outlast the Eagles in QB1 Michael Vick's return to Atlanta as a starting QB.



St. Louis @ New York(N)(-6)  (o/u 44)

Savant Spread Pick: St. Louis with the points; New York to win ~ 24-23
Over/Under Pick: Over
 
Result: St, Louis 16  New York(N) 28 / Total Score 44 /
Winner: +  Spread: -  O/U: push  


Key Injuries: [STL] Steven Jackson(Out), Danny Amendola(Out); [NYG] CB Prince Amukamara(Questionable), DT Justin Tuck(Questionable), WR Hakeem Nicks(Questionable), DE Osi Umenyiora

Last week, the Rams lost a blowout to the Eagles at home and the Giants had a disappointing day against the Redskins in D.C. that ended in a loss.  Both teams are desperate for a win to avoid getting behind in their respective division races.  No one is sure what to make of the Giants loss to the Redskins.  Are the Giants that bad or are the Redskins better than what was thought?  I am going to guess it was a little of both.  Don't forget to mention that the Giants are decimated with injuries and at least a couple of the players listed as questionable will not play in Sunday's matchup against the Rams.

The Rams, who have serious expectations to contend for an NFC West title, have a good team but missing two of their major offensive weapons, particularly their biggest offensive weapon, RB1 Steven Jackson, they will struggle to put up points at times, but they have a very capable RB2 in former Tampa Bay star RB2 Carnell Williams to fill in for the absent Jackson.  In the end, the Rams just don't have enough weapons and a good enough defense to get it done versus the Giants.

I hope this guide proved to be helpful!  Look out for my picks each and every week of the NFL season!

NFL 2011 - Betting Lines - Who to Pick Versus the Spread: Week 1

I'm not much of a gambler, but I know many of you are!  So, this year I will be helping out my friends who like to make wagers versus the spread.  Here, I will try provide some insight on how the matchups within the game can work to your advantage when making a wager.  Making good picks is all about good information.  So, without further adieu, the picks and analysis for wagers versus the spread for the NFL: Week 1...

*WEEK 1 - RESULTS UPDATE* 

Winner: 10-6
Winner w/ Spread: 8-8
Over/Under: 7-8-1

Trifecta: 3
Perfect Score Predictions: 3 (Atlanta, St. Louis, Detroit)
Perfect Game Predictions: 1 (Atlanta v. St. Louis)


NOTE:  The Green Bay/New Orleans game was played Thursday, September 8th so no pick or analysis will be given, but for the record, I had Green Bay winning by 7 and both teams scoring often so I took the over.  Nice start, huh?

NOTE 2: The team with a negative number in parenthesis "(-3)" next to their name is the favorite to win the matchup and the number represents how many points the favorite has to score more than the underdog to count as a winning bet.  The over/under for the game is represented by a number in parenthesis with the letters o and u "(o/u 46)".  The number represents the amount of points you are wagering whether or not the two team's combined score will be in excess of or short of.  Official betting lines courtesy of www.footballlocks.com

Pittsburgh @ Baltimore(-1.5)  (o/u 36)


Savant Spread Pick: Pittsburgh to win ~ 16-14
Over/Under Pick: Under

Result: Baltimore 35  Pittsburgh 7 / Total Score 42 /
Winner: -  Spread: -  O/U: -


This game is always very physical as these teams have a downright hatred for one another.  When these teams play, it's lights out collision-making on every play.  These teams have hard hitters that hit their hardest when they play each other.  Injury is always a high risk in these games because of intensified aggression of the rivalry.  Both teams will have mental mistakes as the lockout prevented them from having much time to gel in a truncated off-season.  Most of the familiar names of recent years are all still with their teams for this game as neither team did much in free-agency so you can expect a similar result to what has happened in years past in this one.  These factors are why I'm taking the under at 36.  These games typically end in 13-10 fashion, so under is a safe play.

This early in the season, great defenses usually get the better of good offenses.  Because of this, and the Ravens star defensive players being just another year older in the twilight of their careers, the Steelers should win this game by at least a field goal. 



Detroit @ Tampa Bay(-1)  (o/u 42.5)


Savant Spread Pick: Detroit to win ~ 27-17
Over/Under Pick: Over

Result: Detroit 27  Tampa Bay 20 / Total Score 47 /
Winner: +  Spread: +  O/U: +    
*Trifecta* 


I know it's on the road and a long flight to Tampa from Michigan, but the Lions are a team ready to prove people wrong and they have the arsenal to do it.  This Lions team is a whole other beast when it has it's signal caller, Matthew Stafford at the helm.  This season, Stafford to Calvin Johnson will be one of the leagues best duos and they will score lots of points with their high-octane offense.  The Bucs are a team that will take a step back this year.  They were not as good as advertised last year.  Four of their 10 wins in 2010 came in a sweep of the worst division in football, the NFC West.  

Those preposterously large defensive lineman on the Lions(Suh and Fairley) are going to plug up running lanes and TB running back, LeGarrett Blount is an in-between the tackles runner.  Lions should neutralize the running game and make the Bucs more one-dimensional.  The Bucs will put up a couple of TD's; the Lions will put up even more TD's.  This is why I took the Lions and the over.  This isn't a close game to me.



Chicago vs. Atlanta(-2)  (o/u 40.5)


Savant Spread Pick: Atlanta and the points to win ~ 24-13
Over/Under Pick: Under

Result: Chicago 30  Atlanta 12 / Total Score 42 /  
Winner: -  Spread: -  O/U: - 


This appears to be one of the easier picks of the week, as I see it.  Atlanta has very real Super Bowl aspirations and the Bears will be lucky to finish third in their division this season.  The Bears gave up the most sacks in the NFL last season.  Their strange way of remedying this is to cut their only Pro-Bowl offensive lineman(C Olin Kruetz) and signed, nor drafted anyone worthwhile to replace him.  So the worst O-line in football only got less talented and less experienced.  Not only do you have that problem, but they had one of the worst receiving corps. in the NFL last year and they only signed Cowboy reject, Roy Williams who was cut by Dallas because he was way overpaid, so they are still bad in that area. 

This pick isn't even as much about how good the Falcons are, and they will be very good, but more about how disappointing the Bears will be in 2011.  Most games the Bears played in last year were very low scoring and I don't think even 28 points by the Falcons will be enough to help the bad Bears offense help the game total eclipse the 41 point mark so I'd say under is a safe bet.


Buffalo @ Kansas City(-5.5)  (o/u 39.5)


Savant Spread Pick: Buffalo with the points; Kansas City to win ~ 21-14
Over/Under Pick: Under

Result: Buffalo 41  Kansas City 7 / Total Score 48 / 
Winner: -  Spread: +  O/U: -

It wouldn't be surprising to me if Buffalo went right in to KC and beat them on their home-field, but it's because of that tremendous home-field advantage the Chiefs maintain, I've got them winning by just a field goal, if they win at all.  KC QB Matt Cassell sustained a rib injury in the final preseason game a week ago and was questionable for the game so he will be less than 100%.  Jamaal Charles will get his run of yards, but without a completely healthy Cassell and Dwaye Bowe disappearing for long stretches of the season last year, I can't have any confidence in the Chiefs offense.  

The Bills have a serviceable QB in Ryan Fitzpatrick and emerging start WR Stevie Johnson along with two headed spear Rb committee; Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller.  In the end, the Bills offense just does a little more than the Chiefs offense, but it might be a big home-field play that puts the Chiefs just over the Bills, but certainly by less than 6 points.


Indianapolis @ Houston(-9)  (o/u 44)


Savant Spread Pick: Indianapolis with the points; Houston to win ~ 28-20
Over/Under Pick: Over

Result: Houston 34  Indianapolis 7 / Total Score 41 / 
Winner: +  Spread: -  O/U: -


With this spread it is easy to see that gamblers are predicting gloom and doom for the Colts without Peyton Manning in the lineup.  Though I happen to agree with them, I don't agree to that level of doom.  The Colts will be below average without Peyton, but they could have a worse starter filling in than Kerry Collins.  The team, even without Peyton, still has a ton of talent all over the offense.  Collins just needs to delivery the ball and they can do the rest.  

It won't be nearly enough to keep up with one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL in the Texans.  Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson are going to have a field day against an average Colts secondary.  The Texans should lead by more than the spread for most of the game, but will allow some meaningless points at the end when they have the game in hand and it will be just enough to both uncover the spread and make Indy a winning bet versus the spread and enough to get over the o/u hump and make the over a winning bet.


St. Louis vs. Philadelphia(-4)  (o/u 44)


Savant Spread Pick: Philadelphia and the points to win ~ 31-13
Over/Under Pick: Over

Result: Philadelphia 31  St. Louis 13 *Perfect Prediction!* / Total Score 44 / 
Winner: +  Spread: +  O/U: push

One of the greatest disadvantages a home team can ever have is when they play in a dome and they have relatively little team speed and they are playing a team with one of the NFL's fastest offenses.  Philly's blazing-fast receivers, not to mention the speed of QB Michael Vick, will torch the Rams "no-name" defense on their home carpet.  Sam Bradford is young and still struggles against a fast blitzing pass-rush, which the Eagles are known to be the best at in the league.  This won't even be close.  Take Philly and the over with great confidence.


Cincinnati @ Cleveland(-6.5)  (o/u 35)


Savant Spread Pick: Cleveland and the points to win ~ 14-6
Over/Under Pick: Under

Result: Cleveland 27  Cleveland 17 / Total Score 44 / 
Winner: -  Spread: -  O/U: -

This is the throw-away game of the week, but it's the throw-away game that is many times the hardest to bet on because you don't know what to expect.  In this case, I think the decision is not too difficult.  Nothing screams offensive impotence more than a rookie QB making his first career start.  It almost typically ends with that team not scoring a TD the entire game no matter how good that team's running backs are(and the Bengals don't have much at RB).


Cleveland, sadly, is not in a much better position, however they have the QB with more experience(by 1 year) and the much more dominating RB, Madden '12 cover-boy Peyton Hillis.  The Browns also have the clearly superior defense, actually a strong point on their team.  I wouldn't be surprised if the Browns shut-out the Bengals, but for the sake of a turnover or two deep in their own territory, I think Bengals squeak out a couple of field goals and nothing more.  This makes taking the under a very easy wager to me.


Tennessee @ Jacksonville(-1)  (o/u 37)


Savant Spread Pick: Tennessee to win ~ 23-17
Over/Under Pick: Under

Result: Jacksonville 16  Tennessee 13 / Total Score 29 / 
Winner: -  Spread: -  O/U: +

Career NFL journeyman, QB Luke McCown gets a very surprise start in week 1 for the Jaguars.  The Jags inauspiciously fired their franchise QB, David Garrard, just a week before the regular season in what looked like a money saving move by the team.  Though no one can quite understand this move, it does tangibly downgrade the whole offense.  They still have elite RB Maurice Jones-Drew, but he will be faced with lots of eight man fronts with no threat of great QB play by McCown.  

Tennessee, of course, still has all-world RB Chris Johnson who is capable of making the homerun breakout for a TD every time he touches the ball.  The Titans can expect good, consistent play from new QB Matt Hasselbeck throwing to stud wideout Kenny Britt.  The Jags will only score points based on the quality of play from Mo-Jo, which I expect to be high.  Tennessee still wins easily.  The Jags practically announced they were giving up on 2011 when they cut Garrard.


Washington v. New York(N)(-2.5)  (o/u 39.5)


Savant Spread Pick: Washington to win 24-21
Over/Under Pick:Over

Result: Washington 28  New York(N) 14 / Total Score 42 / 
Winner: +  Spread: +  O/U: +
*Trifecta *

Some games have an outside factor that can have a profound effect on he outcome of the game, like when the heavy underdog Saints routed the heavily favored Falcons in the New Orleans Super Dome reopening after hurricane Katrina. I think this game will have that factor.  Emotions will be running very high as the two cities that were directly hit by the attacks of 9/11 play each other on the 10th anniversary of the tragedy.

  Though the Giants are the more talented team, they have 6 defensive players already on season-ending injured reserve.  But more importantly, that D.C. crowd is going to be outrageous as they are running high with emotion from the anniversary.  Home crowd makes the difference in this one.  I'm taking Washington and the over because of the Giants suspect defense and the emergence of new Redskins RB Tim Hightower looking real good in preseason.  We know the Giants can and will score points on offense.  The over here feels like a lock to me.


Carolina @ Arizona(-6.5)  (o/u 37.5)


Savant Spread Pick: Arizona and the points to win ~ 27-3
Over/Under Pick: Under

Result: Arizona 28  Carolina 21 / Total Score 49 / 
Winner: +  Spread: +  O/U: -

As was discussed about rookie QB's making their first NF start earlier, we have another for the Panthers in QB Cam Newton.  He won the job fair and square in the preseason, but it was mostly because he had no competition to fight with for the job.  Cam may be a good dual-threat QB someday, but it's not in his first NFL start.  I want to call a shutout in this one, but alas Arizona will probably find a way to have at least one turnover in their territory giving the Panthers a chance to go 3 and out and kick a long field goal.  This is a no-brainer, Cards and the under.


Seattle @ San Francisco(-5.5)  (o/u 37.5)


Savant Spread Pick: San Francisco and the points to win ~ 21-10
Over/Under Pick: Under

Result: San Francisco 33  Seattle 17 / Total Score 50 / 
Winner: +  Spread: +  O/U: -

San Francisco is no prize these days, but few teams have taken a plunge like the Seahawks.  New QB Tavaris Jackson has looked atrocious in the preseason and newly acquired deep threat WR Sidney Rice will miss the game(shoulder).  They also have injuries at offensive line.

  The 49ers are coming in to the game with most everyone healthy and a new look offense under new coach Jim Harbaugh and their own deep threat WR acquisition, Braylon Edwards.  The only player of any significance on the Seattle offense is their running back Marshawn Lynch, but the 49ers have the best middle LB in football, Patrick Willis, to stuff those running lanes.  It's fair to say the 49ers will cover the spread, it's more a certainty they will combine for under 38 points.


Minnesota @ San Diego(-8.5)  (o/u 42)


Savant Spread Pick: San Diego and the points to win ~ 34-13
Over/Under Pick: Over

Result: San Diego 24  Minnesota 17 / Total Score 41 / 
Winner: +  Spread: -  O/U: -

One team last year had the #1 offense and the #1 defense in the NFL in 2010; it was the San Diego Chargers.  A feat already rarely done, but nonetheless done with their greatest offensive weapon, TE Antonio Gates, and superstar WR Vincent Jackson missing most of the season!  They now have both guys back and healthy and will only add to the arsenal that QB Philip Rivers has at his disposal.


Minnesota acquired veteran QB Donovan McNabb to fill their "Favre Void" and he's not a bad pickup, but it is not McNabb that will make the Vikings a sub-par team this year, it will be the defense.  You can always count on all-world RB Adrian Peterson to show up on Sundays and dominate, but with an average receiving corps., the Vikings will be a run-oriented team.  San Diego will prove to be way too much for them to handle and this should be a blowout.


Dallas @ New York(A)(-6.)  (o/u 40.5)


Savant Spread Pick: Dallas with the points; New York to win ~ 21-16
Over/Under Pick: Under

Result: New York(A) 27  Dallas 24 / Total Score 51 / 
Winner: +  Spread: +  O/U: +   
*Trifecta*

The Jets are one tough cookie to beat at home and Dallas showed signs of improvement late last year, but have lost some players coming into this season, mostly because of salary cap casualties. Dallas has a pretty nice offense with QB Tony Romo, TE Jason Witten and stud WR's Miles Austin and Dez Bryant, but the Jets are a better defense, finishing ranked near the top in 2010.

Dallas has a starter in the secondary out for the game and this should give WR Santonio Homes some extra space to squeeze in some more yardage that will make the difference in the game.  Dallas will be able to keep the running game of Shonn Green and LaDanian Tomlinson somewhat in-check, but I feel like they are going to get burned a few times for big chunks in the passing game.  This is a tricky one, but my gut tells me to take Dallas with the points and take the under.


Miami vs. New England (-7)  (o/u 45.5)


Savant Spread Pick: Miami with the points; New England to win ~ 26-20
Over/Under Pick: Over

Result: New England 38  Miami 24 / Total Score 62 / 
Winner: +  Spread: -  O/U: +

The Patriots are a team that is finally showing some cracks in it's marbled "dynasty" this year.   Acquiring misfits DT Albert Haynesworth and WR Chad Ochocinco looked to be a bit of a desperation move for a team that is not very good at the WR or DT positions.  It appears that neither move is really panning out, too.  When you have Tom Brady you always have a chance, no matter who you put out there, but Brady didn't win those Super Bowls on his own.  This will be one of the worst supporting casts he has seen in a number of years.


It's rare to be a 7 point dog at home, but leave it to the Dolphins to manage this.  After a failed attempt to trade for Kyle Orton, they are still stuck with QB Chad Henne.  They took a downgrade at the RB position, letting go Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams to sign unproven every-down back, Reggie Bush and drafted rookie Daniel Thomas to back him up.  Lucky for the Dolphins, they have possibly the best kicker in the NFL in Dan Carpenter.  He can bail them out some when they stall near the 40 yard line and drop those long field goals he did many times last year.  The Pats are good enough to win this game over the Dolphins, but they won't dominate them like they have in years past.



Oakland @ Denver(-3)  (o/u 40.5)


Savant Spread Pick: Denver and the points to win ~ 24-20
Over/Under Pick: Over

Result: Oakland 23  Denver 20 / Total Score 43 / 
Winner: -  Spread: -  O/U: +

The most under-rated QB in the NFL is a guy who threw for over 3,600 yards and 20 TD's last year.  That QB is Denver's Kyle Orton.  He's back with his favorite weapon, WR Brandon Lloyd who was one of the NFLs' top receivers.  Denver is not going to be very good this year, but they can surely take advantage of an Oakland secondary that will be without Nnamdi Asomugha, whom they lost to the Eagles in the free-agent market.  Oakland will be able to run the ball effectively against the Broncos porous defense, but the air attack with Kyle Orton will prevail and look for a two TD game from Willis McGahee for Denver.  These teams have above average offenses and bad defenses, wager the over with confidence.


I hope this guide proved to be helpful!  Look out for my picks each and every week of the NFL season.