NFL 2011 - Betting Lines - Picks To Win, Versus the Spread and the Over/Under: Conference Championship Playoffs

It's turning out to be an exciting final round of the playoffs before this season's Super Bowl!  And, in true Sports Savant fashion, my picks are getting more accurate as the importance of the games being played grows in intensity.  Not only did I finish with a perfect 4-0 record against the spread and 3-1 to win, but I picked my third Perfect Game Score of the season and my first since Week 2 of the 2011 NFL Season when I chose the Ravens to beat the Texans 20-13 in the Divisional Round of the playoffs.  The only pick I got wrong "to win" was the Giants, but I was one of the few people to even take them with the points so it was a very big upset.  According to my picks this weekend, we are going to have a Patriots vs. 49ers Super Bowl in Indianapolis this February.  Before we get to those picks, lets take a look at the rundown on my picks last week and overall this season...


*DIVISIONAL ROUND PLAYOFFS - RESULTS*

Winner: 3-1   :-)

Winner w/ Spread: 4-0  :-D

Over/Under: 1-3 :-(

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Trifecta: 1

Strikeouts: 0

Perfect Team Score Predictions: 2 (Baltimore, Houston)

Perfect Game Score Predictions: 1 (Houston @ Baltimore)

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*2011 Overall Record*

Winner: 178-86 (.674)

Winner w/ Spread: 130-125-9 (.510)

Over/Under: 127-131-5 (.492)

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Trifecta: 58

Strikeouts: 33

Perfect Team Score Predictions: 35   [Week 1]: Atlanta, St. Louis, Detroit  [Week 2]: Arizona, Tampa Bay, Minnesota  [Week 4]: San Diego  [Week 5]: Jacksonville, Denver  [Week 6]: Atlanta, Oakland  [Week 7]: Chicago  [Week 8]: Houston, Carolina, Denver, Cleveland  [Week 9]: Oakland, Tennessee  [Week 10]: Miami  [Week 11]: Oakland  [Week 12]: Tampa Bay, Chicago, Seattle  [Week 13]: Buffalo, Washington, Houston, New England  [Week 14]: Houston, Carolina  [Week 15]: Dallas, New York(A)  [Week 16]: Green Bay  [Week 17]: Jacksonville  [Divisional Playoffs]: Baltimore, Houston

Perfect Game Score Predictions: 3   [Week 1] Atlanta @ St. Louis  [Week 2]: Tampa Bay @ Minnesota  [Divisional Playoffs]: Houston @ Baltimore

NOTE: The team with a negative number in parenthesis "(-3)" next to their name is the favorite to win the matchup and the number represents how many points the favorite has to score more than the underdog to count as a winning bet.  The over/under for the game is represented by a number in parenthesis with the letters o and u "(o/u 46)".  The number represents the amount of points you are wagering whether or not the two team's combined score will be in excess of or short of.  Official betting lines courtesy of www.footballlocks.com

My picks for the Conference Championship Round Playoffs...



Baltimore @ New England(-7)  (o/u 50)
Savant Spread Pick: Baltimore with the points; New England to win ~ 26-20
Over/Under Pick: Under

It's plain and simple in this matchup; Do you trust Brady and the Pats sub-par defense to hold up or is it Flacco and the Ravens high ranked defense to slow Brady and that high octane offense down?  Based on recent performance, their is more reason to believe in the Pats than the Ravens playing at New England.  The Ravens defense had three interceptions last week, continuing their "ball-hawk" reputation but numbers are deceiving.  Those interceptions were all very easy pick-offs thrown by an inexperienced third string rookie QB in T.J. Yates, a far cry from the likes of Tom Brady.  The Patriot mystique will roll into the Super Bowl behind 2 TD passes and 317 yards on 37 attempts from Brady while Flacco will put up 260 yards and 1 TD passes on 22 attempts in the loss.  Other player predictions: Ray Rice: 92 yards rushing, 32 receiving 1 TD, Rob Gronkowski: 7 catches 106 yards 1 TD



New York(N) @San Francisco(-2.5)  (o/u 42)
Savant Spread Pick: San Francisco and the points to win ~ 23-17
Over/Under Pick: Under

With most of America on the Giants bandwagon after their playoff stunner versus the Packers, the 49ers are playing the disrespect card all the way to the Super Bowl.  They have thrived on being the underdogs all season(and don't be fooled by the spread. It's just Vegas' way of hedging the risk on everyone taking the Giants bet).  Nobody plays more physical than the 49ers on defense, a team who knocked out 6 running backs this season including last week's crushing concussion Donte' Whitner laid on Pierre Thomas that caused a fumble on the goal line.  The Giants will make a few big plays but keeping a consistent drive will be difficult against the NFL's top rated defense.  Eli Manning will throw for over 300 yards on 41 attempts and 2 TD passes, but the Giants running game will be stifled with my expectation that the Bradshaw/Jacobs combo will gain just 67 rushing yards.  Alex Smith will throw it more than you think likely tossing it 26 times for 267 yards and a TD.  The 49ers running back combo Gore/Hunter will combine for 136 yards rushing and a TD for Gore.  Other player predictions: Hakeem Nicks 7 catches 118 yards 1 TD, Victor Cruz: 4 catches 67 yards, Frank Gore: 94 yards rushing, 18 receiving 1 TD, Vernon Davis: 10 catches 121 yards 1 TD

NFL 2011 - Betting Lines - Picks To Win, Versus the Spread and the Over/Under: Divisional Playoffs

It was a wild and unpredictable week in the Wildcard Round of the NFL playoffs last week.  At least half of people picked the Giants to win against the Falcons, but no one could have predicted they would shut them out offensively.  And, absolutely no one with any pro football acumen gave the Broncos any chance of beating the Steelers last week, but the Steelers made fatal mistakes on defense that led to the miracle upset.  Because of this, my picks last week were just 2-2, but anomalies like those are not common so I imagine I will be back on track with this week's picks.  Before we look at those, lets take a look at how I did last week and my overall record for the 2011 NFL season, including last week's games...


*WILDCARD PLAYOFFS - RESULTS*

Winner: 2-2   :-/

Winner w/ Spread: 1-3  :-(

Over/Under: 2-2 :-/

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Trifecta: 0

Strikeouts: 1

Perfect Team Score Predictions: 0

Perfect Game Score Predictions: 0

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*2011 Overall Record*

Winner: 175-85 (.673)

Winner w/ Spread: 126-125-9 (.502)

Over/Under: 126-128-5 (.496)

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Trifecta: 57

Strikeouts: 33

Perfect Team Score Predictions: 33   [Week 1]: Atlanta, St. Louis, Detroit  [Week 2]: Arizona, Tampa Bay, Minnesota  [Week 4]: San Diego  [Week 5]: Jacksonville, Denver  [Week 6]: Atlanta, Oakland  [Week 7]: Chicago  [Week 8]: Houston, Carolina, Denver, Cleveland  [Week 9]: Oakland, Tennessee  [Week 10]: Miami  [Week 11]: Oakland  [Week 12]: Tampa Bay, Chicago, Seattle  [Week 13]: Buffalo, Washington, Houston, New England  [Week 14]: Houston, Carolina  [Week 15]: Dallas, New York(A)  [Week 16]: Green Bay  [Week 17]: Jacksonville

Perfect Game Score Predictions: 2   [Week 1] Atlanta @ St. Louis  [Week 2]: Tampa Bay @ Minnesota

NOTE: The team with a negative number in parenthesis "(-3)" next to their name is the favorite to win the matchup and the number represents how many points the favorite has to score more than the underdog to count as a winning bet.  The over/under for the game is represented by a number in parenthesis with the letters o and u "(o/u 46)".  The number represents the amount of points you are wagering whether or not the two team's combined score will be in excess of or short of.  Official betting lines courtesy of www.footballlocks.com

My picks for the Divisional Round Playoffs...


San Francisco vs. New Orleans(-3.5)  (o/u 47)
Savant Spread Pick: San Francisco to win ~ 23-21
Over/Under Pick: Under


San Francisco is the only home underdog in the playoffs this week, but that's not stopping me from picking the defense that can best match-up against the Saints high powered offense.  What makes the Saints offense so dynamic is their ability to use their rushing offense, 6th in the NFL, to setup their high flying aerial attack.  The 49ers were #1 in the league against the run and will make the Saints offense more one-dimensional.  In addition, the Saints were a perfect 8-0 at home this year, but were only 5-3 on the road including losses to two of the most atrocious teams in the NFL, the Tampa Bay Bucs and the St. Louis Rams.  The 49ers run game behind Frank Gore will burn clock and limit the number of possessions the Saints will get and the 49ers big time special teams that include the league's top kick returner, Ted Ginn and the now single season record holder for field goals in a season in 2011, David Akers will play a big part in the 49ers upset of the Saints at home.






Denver @ New England(-13.5)  (o/u 50.5)
Savant Spread Pick: New England and the points to win ~ 31-17
Over/Under Pick: Under


Denver came off of a miracle win against the Steelers last week, but it had more to do with  a terrible defensive game plan by the Steelers than it did with what the Broncos offense did.  The Broncos threw for 316 yards on just 10 completions which is a damnation of the defense they faced.  The Steelers respected the Broncos ability to pass the ball so little that they played in a Cover 0(no deep safeties) most of the game and this allowed Bronco receivers to get behind the defense for a few very long pass completions that made the difference in the game.  New England will not be so brazenly aggressive and maintain a more conservative game plan.  Expect Bill Belichick to create a new gameplan that will differ greatly from their win earlier this year against the Broncos where the Broncos rushed for 164 yards in the first quarter against them.  The New England Tight Ends will also be a nightmare for the Broncos to cover.






Houston @ Baltimore(-7.5)  (o/u 36)
Savant Spread Pick: Houston with the points; Baltimore to win ~ 20-13
Over/Under Pick: Under


Houston has come a long way behind 3rd string QB, T.J Yates in the last quarter of the regular season and last week's playoff win against the Bengals, but this week is where the Cinderella story ends.  The Ravens defense is notorious for taking advantage of inexperienced QB's and the Ravens are a perfect 8-0 at home with wins against a number of high ranked opponents.  Few teams in the NFL perform at a higher level at home than the Ravens.  The Houston rushing attack should put up numbers but I see them settling for Red Zone field goals instead of touchdowns on a couple of drives that will be the difference.  The Houston defense is one of the top in the NFL, but the Ravens rushing game behind elite RB Ray Rice will be too much for them to handle in the end.  It will be mostly a defensive struggle, but I trust the Ravens offense to break through more than I can trust the Texans offense, especially behind a 3rd string QB.






New York(N) @ Green Bay(-7.5)  (o/u 53)
Savant Spread Pick: New York with the points; Green Bay to win ~ 28-23
Over/Under Pick: Under


This will be more of a game than people expect.  The one thing that can bring any high powered passing offense to a halt is an outstanding pass rush and no team has a more dominant pass rushing front four than the Giants.  The game is in Green Bay where temperatures are expected to be very low and the Giants are a team that is better built to play in those conditions with their power running game than the Green Bay Packers who pass the ball a majority of the time.  The biggest difference will be the fact that the Packers have the worst rated pass defense in the NFL and that will give Eli and the offense opportunities to score, but the Packers are a hard team to keep up with when it comes to scoring points.  The Giants will push the Packers to the brink in a tightly contested game, but it will be the Packers who will make one or two more big throws with the NFL's league MVP, Aaron Rodgers, making the throws.

NFL 2011 - Betting Lines - Picks To Win, Versus the Spread and the Over/Under: Wild Card Playoffs

Here we are, the first round of the NFL playoffs!  To say that my picks for the regular season were successful would be a gross understatement!  Finishing with 173 wins is 6 wins better than the most accurate NFL expert on ESPN this year(Mark Schlereth; 167).  It's also more accurate than the NFL experts on Showtime, CBS, Fox, HBO and any other media outlet in the country.  If anyone did any better, I would love to see it(and the proof)!  I couldn't have imagined that in my first year of picking all of the games of the season that I would have more success than every known NFL expert in America.  I fell just 0.4% of my impossible goal of 68% accuracy on my picks to win.  Hey, you have to set your goals high.  I almost doubled my 32 Strikeouts with 57 Trifectas and at least I came out slightly ahead on my picks with the spread and just missed 50% in the Over/Under, but it's hard to be much higher than that when picking 256 games in a year.  Now is the time when the games really count.  Let's see how I fare on my picks in the NFL playoffs!

*WEEK 17 - RESULTS*

Winner: 13-3   :-D

Winner w/ Spread: 7-8-1  :-/

Over/Under: 7-9 :-/

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Trifecta: 4

Strikeouts: 0

Perfect Team Score Predictions: 1 (Jacksonville)

Perfect Game Score Predictions: 0

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*2011 Overall Record*

Winner: 173-83 (.676)

Winner w/ Spread: 125-122-9 (.506)

Over/Under: 124-126-5 (.496)

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Trifecta: 57

Strikeouts: 32

Perfect Team Score Predictions: 33   [Week 1]: Atlanta, St. Louis, Detroit  [Week 2]: Arizona, Tampa Bay, Minnesota  [Week 4]: San Diego  [Week 5]: Jacksonville, Denver  [Week 6]: Atlanta, Oakland  [Week 7]: Chicago  [Week 8]: Houston, Carolina, Denver, Cleveland  [Week 9]: Oakland, Tennessee  [Week 10]: Miami  [Week 11]: Oakland  [Week 12]: Tampa Bay, Chicago, Seattle  [Week 13]: Buffalo, Washington, Houston, New England  [Week 14]: Houston, Carolina  [Week 15]: Dallas, New York(A)  [Week 16]: Green Bay  [Week 17]: Jacksonville

Perfect Game Score Predictions: 2   [Week 1] Atlanta @ St. Louis  [Week 2]: Tampa Bay @ Minnesota

NOTE: The team with a negative number in parenthesis "(-3)" next to their name is the favorite to win the matchup and the number represents how many points the favorite has to score more than the underdog to count as a winning bet.  The over/under for the game is represented by a number in parenthesis with the letters o and u "(o/u 46)".  The number represents the amount of points you are wagering whether or not the two team's combined score will be in excess of or short of.  Official betting lines courtesy of www.footballlocks.com

My picks for the Wild Card Round Playoffs...


Cincinnati @ Houston(-4)  (o/u 38)
Savant Spread Pick: Houston and the points to win ~ 20-13
Over/Under Pick: Under

First ever playoff game between two rookie QB's.  Cincinnati is good at all phases of the game but they don't do anything excellent.  Texans are a top ranked defense and have one of the most dynamic running games in the NFL.  Arian Foster may rush for over 150 yards and 2 touchdowns and should be the difference in the game for Houston.  Houston's defense will keep Andy Dalton, A.J. Green and Cedric Benson in check.

Detroit @ New Orleans(-10.5)  (o/u 59)
Savant Spread Pick: Detroit with the points; New Orleans to win ~ 38-29
Over/Under Pick: Over

First time two playoff QB's will face each other combining for over 10,000 yards passing in the regular season.  The team that plays even decent defense will be the winner in this match.  New Orleans undefeated at home and highest scoring average at home in the NFL in 2011.  New Orleans blitz crazed defense will create sacks/turnovers and Lions have not beaten a team with a winning record this season.

Atlanta @ New York(N)(-3)  (o/u 47.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Atlanta to win ~ 24-20
Over/Under Pick: Under

Atlanta is playing hot right now and are fully healthy.  They will use their strong rushing attack to keep the Giants elite pass rushers in check and can burn the Giants secondary with speedsters Julio Jones and Roddy White.  Falcons veteran secondary should be able to handle the passing attack of the Giants and I expect a turnover or two from Eli Manning.

Denver vs. Pittsburgh(-8.5)  (o/u 34)
Savant Spread Pick: Pittsburgh and the points to win ~13-0
Over/Under Pick: Under

Denver didn't earn a single point last week(their 3 points came from a Chiefs turnover in their own territory where they promptly went 3 and FG).  The Steelers defense is even better than the Chiefs and it would be a stretch to suggest that Denver will even score a point.  Steelers are banged up on offense but it won't matter.  Bronco offense will be so bad that the Steelers can score 3 points and have a good chance to win.

Good luck this week!