*WEEK 12 - RESULTS*
Winner: 9-7 :-/
Winner w/ Spread: 7-9 :-/
Over/Under: 6-10 :-(
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Trifecta: 3
Strikeouts: 3
Perfect Team Score Predictions: 3 (Tampa Bay, Chicago, Seattle)
Perfect Game Score Predictions: 0
___________
*2011 Overall Record*
Winner: 113-63 (.642)
Winner w/ Spread: 81-88-7 (.479)
Over/Under: 84-89-3 (.486)
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Trifecta: 36
Trifecta: 36
Strikeouts: 24
Perfect Team Score Predictions: 23 [Week 1]: Atlanta, St. Louis, Detroit [Week 2]: Arizona, Tampa Bay, Minnesota [Week 4]: San Diego [Week 5]: Jacksonville, Denver [Week 6]: Atlanta, Oakland [Week 7]: Chicago [Week 8]: Houston, Carolina, Denver, Cleveland [Week 9]: Oakland, Tennessee [Week 10]: Miami [Week 11]: Oakland [Week 12]: Tampa Bay, Chicago, Seattle
Perfect Game Score Predictions: 2 [Week 1]:Atlanta @ St. Louis [Week 2]: Tampa Bay @ Minnesota
NOTE: The team with a negative number in parenthesis "(-3)" next to their name is the favorite to win the matchup and the number represents how many points the favorite has to score more than the underdog to count as a winning bet. The over/under for the game is represented by a number in parenthesis with the letters o and u "(o/u 46)". The number represents the amount of points you are wagering whether or not the two team's combined score will be in excess of or short of. Official betting lines courtesy of www.footballlocks.com
My picks for Week 13...
Seattle vs. Philadelphia(-3) (o/u 43.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Philadelphia and the points to win ~ 24-16
Over/Under Pick: Under
Vince Young looked average against a pretty user friendly pass defense against New England, but with a Seattle offense that is so prone to three and outs and turnovers, it should give VY and the Eagles offense enough possession opportunities to score 20 or more points. Marshawn Lynch could have a nice day for Seattle but Tavaris Jackson is still the QB for the Seahawks and he is dealing with a strained pectoral(chest) muscle in on his throwing side. The Eagles good secondary should shut down WR2 Doug Baldwin as their best receiver WR1 Sidney Rice is out with a concussion. In a poorly played game by both teams, the Eagles cover the spread with ease.
Result: Seattle 31 Philadelphia 14 / Total Score 44 /
Winner: - Spread: - O/U: -
*Strikeout*
Tennessee @ Buffalo(-1.5) (o/u 43.5)
Over/Under Pick: Under
The Titans' Chris Johnson reminded us of what he looked like back in 2009 last week against the Bucs. Though he has been now relegated to being an effective matchup running back, the matchup versus Buffalo is a good one in his favor. Matt Hasselbeck is still playing effectively and the defense continues to look like the good, respectable defense we come to know week in and week out, year after year. Buffalo has fallen from grace in a bad way. The honeymoon of the first half of the season is over and they are sliding in a bad way with Fred Jackson now on IR and C.J. Spiller trying to fill his enormous shoes. It will be a close one, but Chris Johnson or rookie Damian Williams will make a big play that will make the difference in the game.
Result: Tennessee 23 Buffalo 17 / Total Score 40 /
Winner: + Spread: + O/U: +
*Trifecta*
*Perfect Team Score*
Kansas City @ Chicago(-7.5) (o/u 36.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Kansas City with the points; Chicago to win ~ 14-9
Over/Under Pick: Under
A meeting of what should be awuful offenses meets in this matchup. Chicago actually had a good offense running in recent weeks, but that came to a halt with the loss of Jay Cutler for the year. In steps Caleb Hanie at QB and he just can't run it as effectively as Cutler. Kansas City will once again be lead by backup QB Tyler Palko who replaced Matt Cassel. Both teams have good defenses and should take advantage of the inexperience of the two QB's in the game. Because of this the game should remain relatively low scoring and close, but my money is on the Bears defense when they are needed to most.
Result: Kansas City 10 Chicago 3 / Total Score 17 /
Winner: - Spread: + O/U: +
Oakland @ Miami(-3) (o/u 43)
Savant Spread Pick: Miami and the points to win ~ 24-20
Over/Under Pick: Over
With as many things that the Raiders do well, they do just as many things not very well. They are your quintessential 8-8 type of team. AS well as they run the ball, one of the best in the NFL, they get almost as many yards in penalties leading the league by a wide margin in yellow flags. The other pertinent factor is that they have to travel 3,000 miles to play a 1:00 game versus a Dolphin team that has been on a surge of late. After a terrible beginning of the season, Miami has looked very good in their wins in recent weeks. QB Matt Moore is playing well above his ceiling and no-name guys like Anthony Fasano and Charles Clay add big plays to an offense that has Reggie Bush and Brandon Marshall. The game will play close, but the Raiders penalty woes will doom them in Miami.
Result: Oakland 14 Miami 34 / Total Score 48 /
Winner: + Spread: + O/U: +
*Trifecta*
Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh(-6.5) (o/u 42)
Savant Spread Pick: Pittsburgh and the points to win ~ 27-17
Over/Under Pick: Over
Pittsburgh comes in off of a very close game against Kansas City, an outcome that you wouldn't normally expect considering the Chiefs are so bad this year, but you have to take in to account that the game was played in Kansas City, a very tough place to play no mater how good or bad the actual team is. Pittsburgh deserves a pass on what was a below average game in a place that is very difficult to play. They obviously get a big boost playing this game against the Bengals at Heinz Field where the Steelers are virtually unbeatable. Cincinnati has proven that though it is a good team, it can't beat the elite teams in the NFL. They have already lost to the Ravens and Steelers in their two hardest games of the year and this one will be no different. There's no question that the Steelers will cover the spread. You can have that much confidence in them winning this game handily.
Result: Cincinnati 7 Pittsburgh 35 / Total Score 42 /
Winner: + Spread: + O/U: Push
Cleveland vs. Baltimore(-6.5) (o/u 37.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Cleveland to win ~ 16-13
Over/Under Pick: Under
This pick is going very against conventional wisdom, but hear me out. For one, Baltimore has proven that it can be one of the worst road teams in the NFL. They have two very bad losses on the road to both Jacksonville and Seattle. Second, division games are very unpredictable. These teams play twice a year, every year. They know every tendency of each other which brings the competitiveness closer together and makes for less lopsided wins. Cleveland has played very good of late and it looks like their star RB Peyton Hillis is at full strength for the first team since week 2. One of the biggest factors is that Cleveland has the number one pass defense in the NFL. Few people realize that. Cleveland has a much better chance of winning this game than anyone is giving them.
Result: Cleveland 10 Baltimore 24 / Total Score 34 /
Winner: - Spread: - O/U: +
Washington vs. New York(A)(-3) (o/u 38)
Savant Spread Pick: New York(A) and the points to win ~23-19
Over/Under Pick: Over
Washington looks much better with Rex Grossman at QB. He may have a lower floor than QB John Beck, but he has a much greater ceiling. The re-addition of Santana Moss has helped. Last week he had a nice game coming back from his hand surgery. They are running into an extremely motivated Jets team. New York is looking to run the table all the way to the playoffs and they will be damned if the Redskins are the sub-par team that is going to kill the dream for 2011. Shonn Greene looks healthy and ready to go and Sanchez is coming off of a 4TD pass week last week. Roy Helu and the running game will be no match for the Jets high ranked defense.
Result: Washington 19 New York(A) 34 / Total Score 53 /
Winner: + Spread: + O/U: +
*Trifecta*
*Perfect Team Score*
Houston vs. Atlanta(-2.5) (o/u 38.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Atlanta and the points to win ~27-17
Over/Under Pick: Over
Houston has one of the top rushing attacks in the NFL with stud Arian Foster and backup Ben Tate. The defense is one of the best in the NFL ranking high in both pass and rush defense. Simply said, new starting QB T.J. Yates will not be able to do enough to help them get by a hot Atlanta team with several weapons in all facets of the game. Julio Jones didn't have a big week last week, but was open in many cases so look for himk to break out again this week and look for Matt Ryan, Roddy White and Michael Turner to have the usually numbers. Houston's inability to move the ball will give the Falcons too many chances to score.
Result: Houston 17 Atlanta 10 / Total Score 27 /
Winner: - Spread: - O/U: -
*Strikeout*
*Perfect Team Score*
Carolina @ Tampa Bay(-3.5) (o/u 48.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Carolina to win ~ 29-17
Over/Under Pick: Under
Carolina has one of the worst defenses in the NFL and Tampa Bay should be able to expose it, but the x-factor in this game is Carolina QB Cam Newton. Tampa lines up as both a friendly passing and rushing matchup and what's scary for them is that Cam can be highly effective doing both. Add that to the two-headed attack at RB in Jonathon Stewart and DeAngelo Williams will give the Bucs defense fits. I like Carolina in the smallest of margins. 12/4 Update: Bucs QB Josh Freeman is out and backup Josh Johnson is making his first start of his career. Take note of the change in final score and a change from the Over to the Under with the offense of the Bucs expected to lose some scoring power under the new QB circumstances.
Result: Carolina 38 Tampa Bay 19 / Total Score 57 /
Winner: + Spread: + O/U: -
Detroit @ New Orleans(-8.5) (o/u 54.5)
Savant Spread Pick: New Orleans and the points to win ~ 38-24
Over/Under Pick: Over
New Orleans once again showed their offensive dominance against a stout Giants defense last week and the arial show will continue against Detroit. The Lions had an outside chance of winning if they could get a dominant game out of their best defensive player, Ndamukong Suh, but alas, he is out with a suspension from his antics on Thanksgiving Day against the Packers. If you can't get 4 man pressure on a QB like Brees, they will pick you apart. This should turn into a blowout early and the Lions will score some meaningless points late. New Orleans defense, though somewhat giving when it comes to pass defense, will be able to take chances in a game that their offense should dominate.
Result: Detroit 17 New Orleans 31 / Total Score 48 /
Winner: + Spread: + O/U: -
Denver @ Minnesota(Pick) (o/u 37.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Minnesota to win ~ 17-16
Over/Under Pick: Under
Denver and the Tebow show has rolled on to an impressive 5-1 record in their last 6 but no one can be too impressed with the way they are winning games. The defense is playing out of its collective minds to keep the game competitive enough for Tebow to go well under 50% on third down and manage to win tight games. It's just not possibel that the defense can show up on another level every week to keep the games close enough for Tebow to stumble through to wins. Minnesota will be without Adrian Peterson but it won't matter much. In a battle between the former FSU and UF QB's Christian Ponder will be the better QB and will squeak them on to a win. Tebow's used up all of his luck for the season. It's time for reality yo set in for this team.
Result: Denver 35 Minnesota 32 / Total Score 67 /
Winner: - Spread: - O/U: -
*Strikeout*
St. Louis @ San Francisco(-13) (o/u 37.5)
Savant Spread Pick: St. Louis with the points; San Francisco to win ~ 23-10
Over/Under Pick: Under
After a tough loss to the Ravens in Baltimore on Thanksgiving day, the 49ers are primed for another big day against the sub-standard Rams at home this week. St. Louis was torched by Beanie Wells for 200+ rushing yards last week and the task for St. Louis actually gets tougher against the much more dangerous Frank Gore. Gore should break out for over 150 yards as St. louis has the worst rush defense in the NFL. You may remember rookie DeMarco Murray made his debut against them and rushed for 220+. St. Louis has the lowest scoring offense in the NFL and have scored the fewest TD's. The 49ers are a top 5 defense. Enough said.
Result: St. Louis 0 San Francisco 26 / Total Score 26 /
Winner: + Spread: - O/U: +
Arizona vs. Dallas(-4.5) (o/u 45.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Dallas and the points to win ~ 26-17
Over/Under Pick: Under
Even with a 200+ yard rushing day from RB Beanie Wells, the Cardinals were only able to squeak out a win over the worst scoring team in the NFL, the Rams. Nothing about the Cardinals, including the fact that they are still playing backup QB John Skelton, points to them having any chance to take down Romo and the Cowboys at University of Phoenix Stadium. Arizona is a team that doesn't harbor much advantage at home like some teams and Dallas is often a better road team than they are a home team because of the pressures of playing in front of their home crowd. Romo and company should pick them apart in the passing game as they are very weak on pass D. Dallas rolls easily.
Result: Arizona 19 Dallas 13 / Total Score 32 /
Winner: - Spread: - O/U: +
New York(N) vs. Green Bay(-6.5) (o/u 53)
Savant Spread Pick: Green Bay and the points to win ~ 42-28
Over/Under Pick: Under
The line on this game is too close. Green Bay should have no problem dismantling a Giants team that was scorched by Drew Brees and the Saints for 363 yards in the air. The Packers offense is even more dangerous. The Giants will also be without their best pass-rusher which is crucial to getting pressure on Rodgers and disruptin the timing of those pass plays. With no Osi and the Giants decimated at LB, they pose no defensive challenge for this Packers offense. Packers will win in a rout.
Result: New York(N) 35 Green Bay 38 / Total Score 63 /
Winner: + Spread: - O/U: +
Indianapolis @ New England(-20.5) (o/u 49.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Indianapolis with the points; New England to win ~ 31-13
Over/Under Pick: Under
In the worst matchup in primetime NFL football history, the Manningless Colts will take on the Pats in a game the NFL anticipated as a huge game when they made the schedule. The Colts have absolutely no chance in this game so there is no point in mentioning the matchups, but interesting to point something out that involves the spread. Nine times in NFL history a team has been favored by 20 points or more. All nine teams that were favored won the game. Only 2 of them covered the 20 points spread. Take the Colts on the spread, but the winner is a bigger lock than death and taxes.
Result: Indianapolis 24 New England 31 / Total Score 55 /
Winner: + Spread: + O/U: +
*Trifecta*
*Perfect Team Score*
Jacksonville vs. San Diego(-2.5) (o/u 39)
Savant Spread Pick: San Diego and the points to win ~ 17-10
Over/Under Pick: Under Jacksonville has the second fewest TD's behind only the woeful offense in St. Louis and San Diego, despite their inexplicable 7 game losing streak, have some of the best talent in the NFL. At the beginning of the season, this game would be a complete no-brainer, but San Diego has played well under expectations and Jacksonville has been pretty much what we thought they would be. With that said, I just don't see how the dangerous pass offense of the Chargers and good defense can succumb to the Jaguars even if they don't play well. Though they don't pull it out by much, I've got the Chargers winning this one, but not in much confidence.
Result: Jacksonville 14 San Diego 38 / Total Score 40 /
Winner: + Spread: + O/U: -
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