Welcome to Part III of my 2014 NFL Divisional preview! I've covered the
AFC EAST and AFC NORTH but today, it's a preview and record predictions for the AFC SOUTH!
The AFC SOUTH is a division that since its inception in 2002 has been mostly dominated by the Indianapolis Colts. The Colts have won this division 8 out of the 12 years it has been in existence. This was largely due to one Peyton Manning who has already solidified himself as one of the greatest QB's of all time. With no more Peyton in this division after he was released by the Colts a couple of years ago, the division has been more wide open though still won last year by Peyton's successor, QB Andrew Luck, and the Colts once again. Reloaded and more experienced, the Colts look like a favorite again, but can they hang on and stave off the Texans, Titans and Jaguars? Read on to find out!
Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jacksonville Jaguars and Head Coach Gus Bradley have a lot of work to do over this year and the years to come to make this team a contender once again. In 2013, the Jaguars were one of the AFC's worst teams and they Jags haven't finished better than 29th in total offense in the last three years. This team has nowhere to go but up, but the climb up the NFL ladder, if it happens, will be a slow and arduous one.
The Jaguars are chock-full of deficiencies on both sides of the ball. So many, in fact, its hard to know where to begin trying to improve their roster. The Jags did make a few additions this off-season through the draft and in free agency, but no amount of drafting and free agent signing could pull this team from the doldrums in 2014.
After the failed experiment that was their #1 draft choice in 2011(10th overall), QB Blaine Gabbert, was finally discarded to the San Francisco 49ers for a 6th round pick, the Jags took another gamble on a 1st round QB, Blake Bortles of UCF, and thus far in the preseason it appears the Jags could have drafted a winner. Bortles has had a blistering preseason going 32 of 51 for 521 yards, 2 TD and 0 INT. The Jags have stated that their plan is to sit Bortles for the entire season to learn behind veteran QB Chad Henne, but with the way Bortles played, they may have no choice but to see what this rookie can do once the Jags fall hopelessly out of contention for the division.
Another welcome addition that should help sure up the defense was the signing of free agent DE Chris Clemons from the Super Bowl Champion Seattle Seahawks. He is one of the best DE in the league and really knows how to get after the QB. But, again, it fills a hole where there are so many more that need talented players.
On offense, we are going to get a look at RB Toby Gearhart as a full-time starter for the first time in his career. Gearhart, a Stanford product, has backed up All-World RB Adrian Peterson with the Minnesota Vikings since he was drafted a few years ago. He's shown signs of quality production when filling in for Peterson when Peterson has been injured, so he was a natural and inexpensive fit for the recently departed RB Maurice Jones-Drew, who took off for the Oakland Raiders this off-season. Gearhart could have a nice breakout season for him personally, but they don't have the surrounding talent to make his contributions turn into wins this year.
In Jacksonville, almost the entire roster is learning on the job whether it be because they are young and inexperienced or came from other teams where they were backups to other talented players. There's no reason to believe this team can fair much better than their 4-12 season of a year ago. Jags fans, you've got another forgettable year ahead of you, but there are reasons to be hopeful for an eventual turnaround with the young players they have going forward.
Savant Record Prediction: (4-12, 4th place)
Houston Texans
In 2013, the Houston Texans were the NFL's biggest disappointment by a long shot. Some sports pundits had this team making a Super Bowl appearance last year and with just 2 wins, they wound up with the worst record in the entire NFL. Enter Head Coach Bill O'Brien, a descendant of the Bill Belichick coaching tree, he was an offensive coordinator with the New England Patriots before coaching a year as the HC of Penn State University last year. The Texans are hoping he can bring some of that Patriot magic with him to Texas, and I believe he will... but not this year.
With that said, however, I do think this team will improve under his direction and the sheer fact that this team so woefully underachieved in 2013. They may not have actually been a Super Bowl contender last year, but with their current roster, they certainly are not a 2 win team either.
The two most important things that can result in on-the-field success for this team will be to keep All-Pro RB Arian Foster healthy and productive for a full season and the efficiency of newly acquired QB Ryan Fitzpatrick in this offense. Fitzpatrick was brought in after QB Matt Schaub was unceremoniously departed but you can't consider Fitzpatrick an upgrade considering the totality of his journeyman career in the NFL. Something to keep an eye on will be to see if Fitzpatrick can keep his job over the recently traded for QB Ryan Mallet, who has thrown only a handful of NFL passes backing up the legendary QB Tom Brady in New England. Mallet has a huge arm and the pedigree to succeed but just hasn't had a chance to show what he can do. It may not be long before Mallett is under center for the Texans considering HC Bill O'Brien's familiarity with him from his days as the Patriots' OC while Mallett was there.
Also important is the mental state of their All-World WR Andre Johnson, who has expressed serious interest in a trade from the team. Johnson has spent his entire career with the Texans and is tired of losing. He's had a very serious fall-out with the team after he expressed an urgency for them to pick-up a veteran quality QB to throw him the ball. When the team opted for Fitzpatrick, Johnson started demanding a trade or even sit out the entire season. It looks now as if Johnson will put his focus on playing, but this is something that could fester should the Texans get off to a bad start.
The most talked about acquisition for this team, however, is the team's #1 overall draft pick, LB Jadeveon Clowney, who has been called a "once-in-a-generation" type of player. He's already drawing comparisons to the most feared linebacker of all-time, LB Lawrence Taylor. With his presence opposite the defensive player of the year candidate, DE J.J. Watt and the return of ILB Brian Cushing from knee surgery on a torn LCL that caused him to miss most of last season, this pass rush could be highly formidable and keep opposing offenses from staying on the field too long.
There's no reason to believe that this team could possibly repeat as the worst in the NFL this year, in fact, I think they make a marked improvement, but it's only going to be enough to come up just short of a playoff berth. With some development from Mallett, because he is clearly a better future option than Fitzpatrick, this team could be in the playoff mix in 2015. Until then, expect a very average season from the Houston Texans.
Savant Record Prediction: (7-9, 3rd place)
Tennessee Titans
The Tennessee Titans were a team on the verge of a breakout season in 2013 until a season ending injury to starting QB Jake Locker derailed their hopes of being a playoff contender. Now, with Locker back healthy and a cast of players similar to the team fielded last year, they look to capture the playoff berth that almost was last year.
The most notable of losses from last year's roster was the departure of RB Chris Johnson, who just a few years ago eclipsed the improbable 2,000 yard rushing mark. After that year, he held out for a giant, 50+ million dollar contract, which he got and then began to steadily decline. The RB formerly known as CJ2K for his 2,000 yard feet, was hardly playing like CJ1K, as he barely passed the 1,000 yard rushing mark at a meager 3.9 yards per carry and 67 rushing yards per game. With his production diving and his contract bloating the books, Johnson was released and picked up by the New York Jets.
With the departure of Johnson, the team decided to draft an electrifying RB in the draft named Bishop Sankey from University of Washington. Sankey is competing with veteran RB Shonn Greene for the starting position and is expected to eventually take it over considering Greene's injury history. Sankey could be a real difference maker like Johnson was before him in Tennessee.
One of the more under-rated moves of the off-season was the signing of All-Pro left tackle Michael Oher. Yes, that Michael Oher, the subject from which the movie The Blind Side was based on. Despite his Hollywood story, Oher is one of the more dominant tackles in the NFL. The real issue that the Titans have had over the last two years has been keeping their rising star QB healthy. Oher will be an important cog in providing the protection that Jake Locker needs to play a full season and could prove incredibly critical to the team's success.
The Titans also poached key defensive players LB Wesley Woodyard from the Denver Broncos and LB Shaun Phillips of the San Diego Chargers, both with a history of quality linebacker play in the NFL. These two should help improve a defense that finished a sub-par 22nd in total defense last season. What also can't be underestimated is the signing of RB/PR Dexter McCluster from Kansas City. McCluster didn't do much in the Chiefs offensive scheme, but new Head Coach Ken Wisenhunt has a special role for a player like McCluster just as he did when he had RB Danny Woodhead, a similar but inferior player to McCluster, that excelled him to a 1,000 yard from scrimmage season in San Diego last year. That's not even to mention the contributions McCluster can add to the Titans' punt and kick return game.
The only real question mark for this team is at the cornerback position where star CB Alterraun Verner left a vacancy after signing a big deal with the Tampa Bay Bucs this off-season. No one they have on their current roster can fill those shoes, so this team took a bit of a hit in their pass defense, but overall this team has made improvements over last year.
Provided the key players mentioned, most notably Jake Locker, can stay healthy this year, this team will see gains from last year's season lost to injury. Their playoff hopes will ride on the performance of teams from other AFC divisions, but look for them to be on the cusp or possibly in the playoffs in 2014.
Savant Record Prediction: (9-7, 2nd place)
Indianapolis Colts
The Indianapolis Colts seek yet another division title in the AFC SOUTH in 2014 which would make them division champs 9 of 13 seasons since the AFC SOUTH inception in 2002. Most of those titles came under the management of Head Coach Tony Dungy and QB Peyton Manning, but its Head Coach Chuck Pagano and QB Andrew Luck who have began their own tradition of winning in Indianapolis these days.
The ascension of Andrew Luck continues year-by-year and he is expected to make huge gains in his third year as a starter. Luck is looking to make that leap into the elite QB discussion as he was knocking on the door of the lite club just last year in his 2nd season. I see no reason why Luck doesn't take a monumental leap this year and even contend for a league MVP in 2014.
Part of the reason for my belief in Luck's ascension is because of the nice receiving core he has to distribute the ball to. No one works harder in the off-season than legendary WR Reggie Wayne and even at his accelerated age, he shows no sign of slowing down in 2014. Add the always reliable Wayne to deep-threat WR T.Y. Hilton and the newly acquired WR Hakeem Nicks and that rounds out a nice trio. That doesn't even mention their two pass catching TE's Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen. With all of those good targets, this team is designed to air it out.
The only question mark on offense remains the production of RB Trent Richardson, who was a highly touted RB out of Alabama just a few years ago. Indy traded a 1st round pick to the Cleveland Browns to acquire him and he has yet been even close to worthy of that value. He just doesn't seem to have the horizontal cutting ability to be more than a plowing back, which will never net a back more than 3.5-4.0 yards per carry.
If the offensive line can be special this year and create some holes, Richardson has the power to do damage, but he has to get up to speed first and that takes him a few steps. If he can't produce, they'll be missing RB Donald Brown's contributions from last year Brown took his talents to San Diego in the off-season. Though Brown will be missed, don't dismiss the potential contributions of former RB stud, Ahmad Bradshaw, who missed almost all of last year with a neck injury. Even if this team can run the ball mildly effectively, it will be enough to create the space Luck and the receivers need to take big chunks of yards in the passing game.
The Colts will be without their leading sacker and All-Pro LB Robert Mathis for the first 4 games due to a PED suspension and their thin secondary is still looking like last year's squad who struggled against the pass, but this team can hang on during Mathis' absence and though they will give up big plays on defense, the offense will be so good, they will overcome those weaknesses.
No doubts about this one. The Colts will easily be your AFC SOUTH Champions with a potential 1st round bye in the playoffs as the #2 AFC seed and a potential date with Peyton Manning and the Broncos in the AFC Championship.
Savant Record Prediction: (12-4, 1st place)
Showing posts with label AFC. Show all posts
Showing posts with label AFC. Show all posts
Wednesday, September 3, 2014
Monday, September 1, 2014
NFL 2014: The Sports Savant's AFC NORTH Preview
Welcome to Part II of my 2014 NFL Divisional preview! I've covered the AFC EAST and today, it's a preview and record predictions for the AFC NORTH!
The AFC NORTH is a division that has been owned by the Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens since its inception when the NFL realigned the divisions back in 2002. Even the Cincinnatti Bengals have top this division on three occasions in its 13 year history with the Cleveland Browns being the only team in this division to have never won the AFC NORTH. In 2014 this division looks like it will be a complete toss-up between 3 of the 4 teams with Pittsburgh and Baltimore regressin in the last couple of years and the Bengals beginning to have some of the young talent they have drafted in the last few years finally coming to fruition. The Bengals won the division last season and are looking to repeat. Can they stave off the Ravens and Steelers?
Cleveland Browns
In Mike Pettine's first year as head coach for the Cleveland Browns, he faces many challenges with a team that lacks elite talent at any position. The first thing that has to be discussed when talking about the future of this team in 2014 is whether or not their highly publicized 1st round selection, QB Johnny Manziel, will supplant QB incumbent Brian Hoyer for the starting QB job. Neither showed much to be confident about going into this season as they have both performed poorly in the preseason games. It looks as if Hoyer will maintain the starting job for now, but it will be no surprise if this team moves to the future by starting Manziel at some point early in the season. Look for Manzeil to replace Hoyer if the team has a bad start, which by all accounts, they are expected to do.
Though the QB situation is still unsettled, this team did improve in the off-season through free agency. Key contributors on this team could be some of the new faces they brought in, particularly on offense. RB Ben Tate is finally getting his first opportunity to be a starter in the NFL after being known as the best backup RB in the league on Houston's team, buried on the depth chart by Arian Foster for the last few years. Even if this team can't pass the ball effectively, which there is no reason to think that they will, they should have a fairly stout running attack.
Additions at WR include decent talent with WR Nate Burleson and WR Andrew Hawkins joining the team, but these guys were 2nd and 3rd options on their previous teams so they shouldn't be too impactful. When you talk about the Browns offense though, the biggest story of their season will be the absence of star WR Josh Gordon who is serving a one year suspension for a variety of drug related violations of the NFL's substance abuse policy. This team was already going to be very average with his presence, but the offense will be downright bad without him.
The defense was one of the league's more potent last year and made a huge addition in adding free agent SS Donte Whitner from the San Francisco 49ers defense. He is an All-Pro safety that hits as hard as anyone in the NFL. The defense looks to be as formidable as they were last year and maybe even a bit better with the addition of Whitner.
In all, there isn't much to expect from this team. They are still very clearly a rebuilding project with no discernible purpose in 2014 in terms of winning anything. All this team can really hope for is noticeable maturity and growth from their newly drafted QB and hope he can help them start to develop a positive future, but this is the only thing to play for in 2014 for the Cleveland Browns.
Savant Record Prediction: (4-12, 4th place)
Baltimore Ravens
The Baltimore Ravens are coming off of their worst season under John Harbaugh in the 7 seasons he has coached in Baltimore. Last year was the first season in that time that the Ravens have failed to make the playoffs. Was it the proverbial "Super Bowl Hangover" from winning the title in 2012? For this team, I'm afraid it's more than just that. This is a team that is getting older and key players are either gone or nearing retirement since their Super Bowl win just two seasons ago.
This team's issues start at the QB position. We have all seen QB Joe Flacco have flashes of brilliance in key Ravens victories, none more than his improbable playoff run that rivaled the greatest we've ever seen in the NFL. What we also knew was that Flacco could not maintain that level of play based on his playing history. But because Flacco got hot for 4 games in the playoffs and won the Super Bowl, he was rewarded with the largest contract in NFL history at the time of it's signing in 2013. This was a contract for a QB who historically has been average to sub-par and he showed it last season by being one of the lowest rated QB's in the league while earning the biggest salary. The bigger issue for the Ravens in this deal is that his salary eats up such a large portion of their salary cap space that it leaves them little room to spend money on free agents. They are essentially handcuffed by the contract they gave Flacco that everyone knew was a mistake.
As if the Ravens needed any more problems after last year's 8-8 season, then there was the off-season domestic violence incident that got their lead RB and historic work-horse, Ray Rice, suspended for the first two games of the NFL season. They have a pretty capable backup in RB Bernard Pierce, but it's been the distraction of the event that has taken more of a toll than Ray Rice's aging legs will provide the Ravens. Rice is clearly on the down-slope of his career and with only guys like WR Torrey Smith and TE Dennis Pitta and perhaps spot appearances by newly acquired but rapidly aging WR Steve Smith to throw the ball to, this offense is not scaring anyone. Also not to be forgotten is that this team lost it's best offensive tackle, Micheael Oher, to free agency leaving giant shoes to fill at the all-important left tackle position.
Equally as concerning is their defense that has almost entirely turned over since the 2012 Super Bowl season. Many of their key defensive players were let go to make room for Joe Flacco's giant contract and it showed last year as the Ravens slipped from being one of the league's great defenses as they were for years to a very average one. There isn't much you can look at to find improvement for this team from last year, in fact, I think they have regressed. I don't see a playoff bid for this team in 2014 making two years in a row they will not have made the playoffs. Because of his giant salary, look for the potential for Flacco to be cut after this season if he performs poorly again.
Savant Record Prediction: (7-9, 3rd place)
Pittsburgh Steelers
The 2014 Pittsburgh Steelers are a team that has been getting a pass on past success but is facing scrutiny now for under-performing in the last few years. Head Coach Mike Tomlin is starting to feel the heat and it will only get hotter if this team does not make another playoff run this season. What does not bode well for the Steelers is that it appears that their departed players from last season are outweighing the acquisitions they made. Staples of past Steelers defenses were all dismissed in the off-season including familiar names Ryan Clark, Larry Foote, Brett Keisel and Lamar Woodley, all from the defense. The offense also lost WR Emmanuel Sanders with no solid replacement to lineup across from WR Antonio Brown.
The Steelers did acquire goal-line specialist, LeGarrette Blount and promoted their young stud RB, Le'Veon Bell, to the starting position, but both of these players face potential suspension for marijuana possession charges and in Bell's case a DUI. These players could end up missing some time this season which will be critical to the Steelers running game.
To replace the departed receivers, the Steelers did go out and sign WR Lance Moore and WR Darrius Heyward-Bey, but neither has a history of performing on a high level as the second or third WR option on previous teams, especially Heyward-Bey who was the 7th overall pick in the '09 draft and has been a bust ever since. They like the talent they have brought in through this year's draft in Martavis Bryant and last year's draft in Markus Wheaton, but Wheaton's rookie season was forgettable last year so both are only a glass full of potential until we see something from these guys on the field.
The defense, which had finished in the top 10 in total defense for 10 straight seasons, before last year, is completely revamped and younger than ever. They are relying on major development of young defensive players to keep the Steelers tradition of dominant defenses alive in 2014. The secondary is still lead by aging veterans Troy Polamalu and Ike Taylor but the front seven is now filled with rookies and second/third year players like Cameron Heyward, Jason Worilds and rookies Ryan Shazier and Stephon Tuitt who will have to step in for big names who have been let go.
This is a team that is just not yet built for playoff success. The turnover rate was too high to have consistency on defense and the players are still learning on the job so mistakes will be made that will cost this team games. Add that to an offense that is without major receiving threats and what looks to be an average running game and this looks like a team that may come up just short of the playoffs.
Savant Record Prediction: (8-8, 2nd place)
Cincinnati Bengals
The 2013 Cincinnati Bengals won the AFC NORTH division for the first time in four years and they are looking for their first ever repeat. They look primed to do so with a myriad of weapons at their disposal and returning one of the league's best defenses from 2013. There was little turnover for the Bengals as few notable players departed or were added. Worth noting though is the addition of backup QB Jason Campbell, who is a very nice insurance plan should starting QB Andy Dalton suffer any injuries this year. Even if Dalton is out, Campbell has a history of winning games in the NFL and they won't miss much of a beat should Campbell have to play a few games.
What will really determine this team's fate the most is if Andy Dalton can continue his progression as a starting QB in the NFL. He has won 9, 10 and 11 games in his first 3 seasons as the Bengals signal caller. If he can continue his ascent, this team could not only take the division again, they could get their first playoff win in 24 years.
The progression of Andy Dalton won't be the only deciding factor, however. They are going to need a breakout year from their second year RB Giovani Bernard this season, who will be taking over as the lead back with the release of RB BenJarvis Green-Ellis this preseason. Bernard has all of the talent to be a quality back in his first year as the full-time starter and I expect him to have a top 10 rusher this season. Of course, no one can forget that this team has one of the elite WR targets in the NFL in A.J. Green as well. This trio of QB, RB and WR will be very dangerous for opposing defenses.
The one potentially key loss that the Bengals had this off-season was the loss of DE Michael Johnson, but this was a loss the Bengals anticipated and addressed in the draft by picking up Margus Hunt and Will Clarke in the 2nd and 3rd rounds in 2013. These players have some of the same raw talent that they once had in Michael Johnson so it's reasonable to expect they won't miss much of a beat at the defensive end position.
If this team fires on all of it's cylinders this season, the sky is the limit for them. This is a team with a real outside chance of making it to the AFC title game. Because of their superior roster and the youth they have at most of the key positions, they should have no problem winning the AFC NORTH by at least a couple of games. The Cincinnati Bengals will be your 2014 AFC NORTH Champs!
Savant Record Prediction: (11-5, 1st place)
The AFC NORTH is a division that has been owned by the Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens since its inception when the NFL realigned the divisions back in 2002. Even the Cincinnatti Bengals have top this division on three occasions in its 13 year history with the Cleveland Browns being the only team in this division to have never won the AFC NORTH. In 2014 this division looks like it will be a complete toss-up between 3 of the 4 teams with Pittsburgh and Baltimore regressin in the last couple of years and the Bengals beginning to have some of the young talent they have drafted in the last few years finally coming to fruition. The Bengals won the division last season and are looking to repeat. Can they stave off the Ravens and Steelers?
Cleveland Browns
In Mike Pettine's first year as head coach for the Cleveland Browns, he faces many challenges with a team that lacks elite talent at any position. The first thing that has to be discussed when talking about the future of this team in 2014 is whether or not their highly publicized 1st round selection, QB Johnny Manziel, will supplant QB incumbent Brian Hoyer for the starting QB job. Neither showed much to be confident about going into this season as they have both performed poorly in the preseason games. It looks as if Hoyer will maintain the starting job for now, but it will be no surprise if this team moves to the future by starting Manziel at some point early in the season. Look for Manzeil to replace Hoyer if the team has a bad start, which by all accounts, they are expected to do.
Though the QB situation is still unsettled, this team did improve in the off-season through free agency. Key contributors on this team could be some of the new faces they brought in, particularly on offense. RB Ben Tate is finally getting his first opportunity to be a starter in the NFL after being known as the best backup RB in the league on Houston's team, buried on the depth chart by Arian Foster for the last few years. Even if this team can't pass the ball effectively, which there is no reason to think that they will, they should have a fairly stout running attack.
Additions at WR include decent talent with WR Nate Burleson and WR Andrew Hawkins joining the team, but these guys were 2nd and 3rd options on their previous teams so they shouldn't be too impactful. When you talk about the Browns offense though, the biggest story of their season will be the absence of star WR Josh Gordon who is serving a one year suspension for a variety of drug related violations of the NFL's substance abuse policy. This team was already going to be very average with his presence, but the offense will be downright bad without him.
The defense was one of the league's more potent last year and made a huge addition in adding free agent SS Donte Whitner from the San Francisco 49ers defense. He is an All-Pro safety that hits as hard as anyone in the NFL. The defense looks to be as formidable as they were last year and maybe even a bit better with the addition of Whitner.
In all, there isn't much to expect from this team. They are still very clearly a rebuilding project with no discernible purpose in 2014 in terms of winning anything. All this team can really hope for is noticeable maturity and growth from their newly drafted QB and hope he can help them start to develop a positive future, but this is the only thing to play for in 2014 for the Cleveland Browns.
Savant Record Prediction: (4-12, 4th place)
Baltimore Ravens
The Baltimore Ravens are coming off of their worst season under John Harbaugh in the 7 seasons he has coached in Baltimore. Last year was the first season in that time that the Ravens have failed to make the playoffs. Was it the proverbial "Super Bowl Hangover" from winning the title in 2012? For this team, I'm afraid it's more than just that. This is a team that is getting older and key players are either gone or nearing retirement since their Super Bowl win just two seasons ago.
This team's issues start at the QB position. We have all seen QB Joe Flacco have flashes of brilliance in key Ravens victories, none more than his improbable playoff run that rivaled the greatest we've ever seen in the NFL. What we also knew was that Flacco could not maintain that level of play based on his playing history. But because Flacco got hot for 4 games in the playoffs and won the Super Bowl, he was rewarded with the largest contract in NFL history at the time of it's signing in 2013. This was a contract for a QB who historically has been average to sub-par and he showed it last season by being one of the lowest rated QB's in the league while earning the biggest salary. The bigger issue for the Ravens in this deal is that his salary eats up such a large portion of their salary cap space that it leaves them little room to spend money on free agents. They are essentially handcuffed by the contract they gave Flacco that everyone knew was a mistake.
As if the Ravens needed any more problems after last year's 8-8 season, then there was the off-season domestic violence incident that got their lead RB and historic work-horse, Ray Rice, suspended for the first two games of the NFL season. They have a pretty capable backup in RB Bernard Pierce, but it's been the distraction of the event that has taken more of a toll than Ray Rice's aging legs will provide the Ravens. Rice is clearly on the down-slope of his career and with only guys like WR Torrey Smith and TE Dennis Pitta and perhaps spot appearances by newly acquired but rapidly aging WR Steve Smith to throw the ball to, this offense is not scaring anyone. Also not to be forgotten is that this team lost it's best offensive tackle, Micheael Oher, to free agency leaving giant shoes to fill at the all-important left tackle position.
Equally as concerning is their defense that has almost entirely turned over since the 2012 Super Bowl season. Many of their key defensive players were let go to make room for Joe Flacco's giant contract and it showed last year as the Ravens slipped from being one of the league's great defenses as they were for years to a very average one. There isn't much you can look at to find improvement for this team from last year, in fact, I think they have regressed. I don't see a playoff bid for this team in 2014 making two years in a row they will not have made the playoffs. Because of his giant salary, look for the potential for Flacco to be cut after this season if he performs poorly again.
Savant Record Prediction: (7-9, 3rd place)
Pittsburgh Steelers
The 2014 Pittsburgh Steelers are a team that has been getting a pass on past success but is facing scrutiny now for under-performing in the last few years. Head Coach Mike Tomlin is starting to feel the heat and it will only get hotter if this team does not make another playoff run this season. What does not bode well for the Steelers is that it appears that their departed players from last season are outweighing the acquisitions they made. Staples of past Steelers defenses were all dismissed in the off-season including familiar names Ryan Clark, Larry Foote, Brett Keisel and Lamar Woodley, all from the defense. The offense also lost WR Emmanuel Sanders with no solid replacement to lineup across from WR Antonio Brown.
The Steelers did acquire goal-line specialist, LeGarrette Blount and promoted their young stud RB, Le'Veon Bell, to the starting position, but both of these players face potential suspension for marijuana possession charges and in Bell's case a DUI. These players could end up missing some time this season which will be critical to the Steelers running game.
To replace the departed receivers, the Steelers did go out and sign WR Lance Moore and WR Darrius Heyward-Bey, but neither has a history of performing on a high level as the second or third WR option on previous teams, especially Heyward-Bey who was the 7th overall pick in the '09 draft and has been a bust ever since. They like the talent they have brought in through this year's draft in Martavis Bryant and last year's draft in Markus Wheaton, but Wheaton's rookie season was forgettable last year so both are only a glass full of potential until we see something from these guys on the field.
The defense, which had finished in the top 10 in total defense for 10 straight seasons, before last year, is completely revamped and younger than ever. They are relying on major development of young defensive players to keep the Steelers tradition of dominant defenses alive in 2014. The secondary is still lead by aging veterans Troy Polamalu and Ike Taylor but the front seven is now filled with rookies and second/third year players like Cameron Heyward, Jason Worilds and rookies Ryan Shazier and Stephon Tuitt who will have to step in for big names who have been let go.
This is a team that is just not yet built for playoff success. The turnover rate was too high to have consistency on defense and the players are still learning on the job so mistakes will be made that will cost this team games. Add that to an offense that is without major receiving threats and what looks to be an average running game and this looks like a team that may come up just short of the playoffs.
Savant Record Prediction: (8-8, 2nd place)
Cincinnati Bengals
The 2013 Cincinnati Bengals won the AFC NORTH division for the first time in four years and they are looking for their first ever repeat. They look primed to do so with a myriad of weapons at their disposal and returning one of the league's best defenses from 2013. There was little turnover for the Bengals as few notable players departed or were added. Worth noting though is the addition of backup QB Jason Campbell, who is a very nice insurance plan should starting QB Andy Dalton suffer any injuries this year. Even if Dalton is out, Campbell has a history of winning games in the NFL and they won't miss much of a beat should Campbell have to play a few games.
What will really determine this team's fate the most is if Andy Dalton can continue his progression as a starting QB in the NFL. He has won 9, 10 and 11 games in his first 3 seasons as the Bengals signal caller. If he can continue his ascent, this team could not only take the division again, they could get their first playoff win in 24 years.
The progression of Andy Dalton won't be the only deciding factor, however. They are going to need a breakout year from their second year RB Giovani Bernard this season, who will be taking over as the lead back with the release of RB BenJarvis Green-Ellis this preseason. Bernard has all of the talent to be a quality back in his first year as the full-time starter and I expect him to have a top 10 rusher this season. Of course, no one can forget that this team has one of the elite WR targets in the NFL in A.J. Green as well. This trio of QB, RB and WR will be very dangerous for opposing defenses.
The one potentially key loss that the Bengals had this off-season was the loss of DE Michael Johnson, but this was a loss the Bengals anticipated and addressed in the draft by picking up Margus Hunt and Will Clarke in the 2nd and 3rd rounds in 2013. These players have some of the same raw talent that they once had in Michael Johnson so it's reasonable to expect they won't miss much of a beat at the defensive end position.
If this team fires on all of it's cylinders this season, the sky is the limit for them. This is a team with a real outside chance of making it to the AFC title game. Because of their superior roster and the youth they have at most of the key positions, they should have no problem winning the AFC NORTH by at least a couple of games. The Cincinnati Bengals will be your 2014 AFC NORTH Champs!
Savant Record Prediction: (11-5, 1st place)
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