Thursday, October 18, 2012

NFL Week 7: Win, Spread, Over/Under and Game Score Predictions

Welcome to another week of The Sports Savant NFL Picks, Week 7 Edition!

In Week 6 of the NFL, I took some risks and some paid off, but a few expected winners took a dive making last week one of the tougher weeks in the NFL to prognosticate.  In a gutsy call, I actually had the Seahawks defeating the Patriots in my picks, just one of a very few that predicted them to win, which was a stellar pick victory.  On the flip side, teams like Minnesota, Philadelphia, Arizona and Houston, all of which I picked to win and were favored in their games, all lost, sending the Savant's record for Week 6 to a sub-par 7-7.  At 6-8, the Savant spread picks came out on the short end as well, but in stunning fashion, I have excelled at the Over/Under this year going 10-4 this week to improve my overall Over/Under record to a robust 55.7% accuracy through 7 weeks.

The most important news of these records is that I have continued my streak of 24 consecutive regular season weeks finishing with a record .500 or better "to win".  It's rare that I ever finish at exactly .500 for a week, but in the past it has always come the week before a solid week of picks.

This week is the smallest menu of games all season with six teams on bye.  Even with a small menu, the Sports Savant trudges on with yet another week of NFL picks!  I mostly went chalk as I expect most favorites to cover their respective point spreads, but I did take two underdogs to win(Tennessee, Cincinnati) and two underdogs to beat the spread in a loss(Seattle, Detroit). Before we take a look at my Week 7 picks, lets check out my pick results from Week 6 and for the 2012 season...


*WEEK 6 RESULTS*


Winner: 7-7   :-/
Winner w/ Spread: 6-8  :-(
Over/Under: 10-4 :-)
---------------------------------------------
Trifecta: 3
Strikeouts: 2
Perfect Team Score Predictions: 0
Perfect Game Score Predictions: 0
___________


*2012 Overall Record*
Winner: 57-34 (.626)
Winner w/ Spread: 40-49-2 (.449)
Over/Under: 49-39-3 (.557)
--------------------------------------------

Trifecta: 20
Strikeouts:17
Perfect Team Score Predictions: 11   [Week 1]: New England  [Week 2]: Indianapolis, San Francisco [Week 3]: Chicago, Washington, New York(A)  [Week 4]: Cleveland, Philadelphia  [Week 5]: Green Bay, Seattle, San Diego
Perfect Game Score Predictions: 0


NOTE: The team with a negative number in parenthesis "(-3)" next to their name is the favorite to win the matchup and the number represents how many points the favorite has to score more than the underdog to count as a winning bet.  The over/under for the game is represented by a number in parenthesis with the letters o and u "(o/u 46)".  The number represents the amount of points you are wagering whether or not the two team's combined score will be in excess of or short of.  Official betting lines courtesy of www.footballlocks.com

LOCKS: Games that have a "*LOCK*" logo next to the score are my spread lock picks of the week.  I choose four games each week that I feel will be a lock to win the spread bet.  If I have an underdog winning against a favorite and it is a *LOCK* pick, it means it is a lock that the favorite will not cover the spread, not a lock that the underdog wins the game.

Don't forget to visit therealsportssavant.blogspot.com every week to check my game picks and check the previous week's picks for individual game pick results!  And now I present my Week 7, Sports Savant, NFL picks...





Seattle @ San Francisco(-8)  (o/u 37.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Seattle with the points; San Francisco to win ~ 20-13
Over/Under Pick: Under 



 Tennessee @ Buffalo(-3.5)  (o/u 46.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Tennessee to win ~ 31-29
Over/Under Pick: Over




Arizona @ Minnesota(-6.5)  (o/u 40.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Minnesota and the points to win ~ 20-13
Over/Under Pick: Under




 Cleveland @ Indianapolis(-3)  (o/u 45.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Indianapolis and the points to win ~ 24-16
Over/Under Pick: Under




Baltimore @ Houston(-6.5)  (o/u 48.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Houston and the points to win ~ 26-17
Over/Under Pick: Under




St. Louis v. Green Bay(-5.5)  (o/u 45.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Green Bay and the points to win ~ 27-20 *LOCK*
Over/Under Pick: Over




Carolina v. Dallas(-2.5)  (o/u 45.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Dallas and the points to win ~ 24-17
Over/Under Pick: Under




Washington @ New York(N)(-6)  (o/u 51)
Savant Spread Pick: New York and the points to win ~ 31-24 *LOCK*
Over/Under Pick: Over
 




Tampa Bay v. New Orleans(-2.5)  (o/u 49.5)
Savant Spread Pick: New Orleans and the points to win ~ 31-28
Over/Under Pick: Over




New York(A) @ New England(-10.5)  (o/u 47.5)
Savant Spread Pick: New England and the points to win ~ 34-13 *LOCK*
Over/Under Pick: Under




Jacksonville @ Oakland(-4)  (o/u 44)
Savant Spread Pick: Oakland and the points to win ~ 24-13 *LOCK*
Over/Under Pick: Under




Cincinnati v. Pittsburgh(-1)  (o/u 44.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Cincinnati to win ~ 23-21
Over/Under Pick: Under





Detroit @ Chicago(-6.5)  (o/u 44)
Savant Spread Pick: Detroit with the points; Chicago to win ~ 27-23
Over/Under Pick: Over

  

Thursday, October 11, 2012

NFL Week 6: Win, Spread and Over/Under Predictions

Welcome to another week of The Sports Savant NFL Picks, Week 6 Edition!

After a sluggish first few weeks(thanks mostly to the unpredictability of the replacement referee debacle), the Sports Savant has been heating up on NFL picks each week and was absolutely on fire in Week 5!  I finished with an amazing 12 wins, 9 wins against the spread, and 8 wins(plus a tie) in 14 games this week. If you made your wagers based on my predictions, you made a substantial amount of money.  Add to those totals six trifectas to one strikeout and three perfect team scores, it was a NFL week of picks to remember.

This week presents its challenges and tough matchups, but now that I've got my mojo going, I'm feeling another big week of picks.  I'm going against the grain this week by picking four underdogs to win(Cleveland, Indianapolis, Minnesota, Seattle) and I even have a couple of favorites not covering the spread in wins(Miami, San Francisco).

Before we look at my picks for Week 6, lets take a look at my record last week and my overall record for NFL picks in 2012... 


*WEEK 5 RESULTS*


Winner: 12-2   :-)
Winner w/ Spread: 9-5  :-)
Over/Under: 8-5-1 :-)
---------------------------------------------
Trifecta: 6
Strikeouts: 1
Perfect Team Score Predictions: 3 (Green Bay, Seattle, San Diego)
Perfect Game Score Predictions: 0
___________


*2012 Overall Record*
Winner: 50-27 (.649)
Winner w/ Spread: 34-41-2 (.453)
Over/Under: 39-35-3 (.527)
--------------------------------------------

Trifecta: 17
Strikeouts: 15
Perfect Team Score Predictions: 11   [Week 1]: New England  [Week 2]: Indianapolis, San Francisco [Week 3]: Chicago, Washington, New York(A)  [Week 4]: Cleveland, Philadelphia  [Week 5]: Green Bay, Seattle, San Diego
Perfect Game Score Predictions: 0


NOTE: The team with a negative number in parenthesis "(-3)" next to their name is the favorite to win the matchup and the number represents how many points the favorite has to score more than the underdog to count as a winning bet.  The over/under for the game is represented by a number in parenthesis with the letters o and u "(o/u 46)".  The number represents the amount of points you are wagering whether or not the two team's combined score will be in excess of or short of.  Official betting lines courtesy of www.footballlocks.com

LOCKS: Games that have a "*LOCK*" logo next to the score are my spread lock picks of the week.  I choose four games each week that I feel will be a lock to win the spread bet.  If I have an underdog winning against a favorite and it is a *LOCK* pick, it means it is a lock that the favorite will not cover the spread, not a lock that the underdog wins the game.

Don't forget to visit therealsportssavant.blogspot.com every week to check my game picks and check the previous week's picks for individual game pick results!  And now I present my Week 6, Sports Savant, NFL picks...





Tennessee v. Pittsburgh(-6.5)  (o/u 44)
Savant Spread Pick: Pittsburgh and the points to win ~ 34-13
Over/Under Pick: Over






Cleveland v. Cincinnati(-2)  (o/u 43)
Savant Spread Pick: Cleveland to win ~ 20-17
Over/Under Pick: Under






Indianapolis @ New York(A)(-3.5)  (o/u 43.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Indianapolis to win ~ 23-17
Over/Under Pick: Under






Kansas City @ Tampa Bay(-4)  (o/u 40)
Savant Spread Pick: Tampa Bay and the points to win ~ 27-20 
Over/Under Pick: Over






Oakland @ Atlanta(-9)  (o/u 48.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Atlanta and the points to win ~ 31-17 *LOCK*
Over/Under Pick: Under






Dallas @ Baltimore(-3.5)  (o/u 44.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Baltimore and the points to win ~ 26-20 *LOCK*
Over/Under Pick: Over






Detroit @ Philadelphia(-3.5)  (o/u 47.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Philadelphia and the points to win ~ 24-20
Over/Under Pick: Over






St. Louis @ Miami(-4.5)  (o/u 38)
Savant Spread Pick: St. Louis and the points; Miami to win ~ 16-13
Over/Under Pick: Under






Seattle v. New England(-3.5)  (o/u 43.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Seattle to win ~ 21-20
Over/Under Pick: Under






Buffalo @ Arizona(-4)  (o/u 43.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Arizona and the points to win ~ 27-20 *LOCK*
Over/Under Pick: Over






Minnesota @ Washington(-2)  (o/u 44)
Savant Spread Pick: Minnesota to win ~ 31-28
Over/Under Pick: Over






New York(N) v. San Francisco(-6.5)  (o/u 45.5)
Savant Spread Pick: New York(N) with the points; San Francisco to win ~ 23-17
Over/Under Pick: Under






Green Bay @ Houston(-3.5)  (o/u 47.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Houston and the points to win ~ 29-24
Over/Under Pick: Over






Denver @ San Diego(Pick)  (o/u 49)
Savant Spread Pick: Denver to win ~ 31-23
Over/Under Pick: Over *LOCK*

Thursday, October 4, 2012

NFL Week 5: Win, Spread and Over/Under Predictions

Welcome to another week of The Sports Savant NFL Picks, Week 5 Edition!

With the return of the real referees, the games in Week 4 we're a little easier to predict.  The replacement refs were adding an unknown element to every pick and causing a lot of perfectly good prediction analysis look bad with their sometimes erroneous penalty calls and ball spotting blunders.  The Savant is back to form though going 10-5 in last week's games to win.  The spread still has much to be improved but there is still a lot of time left in the year to get it turned around.  It can be no coincidence also that last week I had four trifectas to two strikeouts where in the replacement ref games I was striking out at a rate I am not accustomed too, but everyone was for that matter with how unpredictable games were with the backup refs at the helm.

So with that comes NFL Week 5.  I'm looking to get back on track with the spread and continue my dominance in picking the winner and also continue a nice Over/Under record going forward.  Before we look at my Week 5 picks, lets take a look at my Week 4 results...


*WEEK 4 RESULTS*

Winner: 10-5   :-)
Winner w/ Spread: 6-9  :-(
Over/Under: 9-6 :-)
---------------------------------------------
Trifecta: 4
Strikeouts: 2
Perfect Team Score Predictions: 2 (Cleveland, Philadelphia)
Perfect Game Score Predictions: 0
___________


*2012 Overall Record*
Winner: 38-25 (.603)
Winner w/ Spread: 25-36-2 (.410)
Over/Under: 31-30-2 (.508)
--------------------------------------------

Trifecta: 11
Strikeouts: 14
Perfect Team Score Predictions: 8   [Week 1]: New England  [Week 2]: Indianapolis, San Francisco [Week 3]: Chicago, Washington, New York(A)  [Week 4]: Cleveland, Philadelphia
Perfect Game Score Predictions: 0


NOTE: The team with a negative number in parenthesis "(-3)" next to their name is the favorite to win the matchup and the number represents how many points the favorite has to score more than the underdog to count as a winning bet.  The over/under for the game is represented by a number in parenthesis with the letters o and u "(o/u 46)".  The number represents the amount of points you are wagering whether or not the two team's combined score will be in excess of or short of.  Official betting lines courtesy of www.footballlocks.com

LOCKS: Games that have a "*LOCK*" logo next to the score are my spread lock picks of the week.  These are the games I feel strongest about the outcome of the game versus the spread.

Don't forget to check therealsportssavant.blogspot.com every week to check my game picks and check the previous week's picks for individual game pick results!  And now I present my Week 3, Sports Savant, NFL picks...



St. Louis v. Arizona(-2)  (o/u 39.5)
Savant Spread Pick: St. Louis to win ~ 19-16
Over/Under Pick: Under



Washington v. Atlanta(-3)  (o/u 51)
Savant Spread Pick: Atlanta and the points to win ~ 31-24
Over/Under Pick: Over





Philadelphia @ Pittsburgh(-3.5)  (o/u 43)
Savant Spread Pick: Philadelphia to win ~ 20-17
Over/Under Pick: Under




Indianapolis v. Green Bay(-7)  (o/u 48)
Savant Spread Pick: Green Bay and the points to win ~ 27-16 *LOCK*
Over/Under Pick: Under




Cleveland @ New York(N)(-8.5)  (o/u 44)
Savant Spread Pick: Cleveland with the points; New York(N) to win ~ 23-17
Over/Under Pick: Under




Tennessee @ Minnesota(-5.5)  (o/u 44)
Savant Spread Pick: Minnesota and the points to win ~ 23-17
Over/Under Pick: Under




Miami @ Cincinnati(-3)  (o/u 45)
Savant Spread Pick: Miami to win ~ 19-17
Over/Under Pick: Under




Kansas City v. Baltimore(-6.5)  (o/u 46.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Baltimore and the points to win ~ 27-20 *LOCK*
Over/Under Pick: Over




Seattle @ Carolina(-3)  (o/u 43.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Seattle to win ~ 16-14
Over/Under Pick: Under




Jacksonville v. Chicago(-5.5)  (o/u 41)
Savant Spread Pick: Chicago and the points to win ~ 24-13 *LOCK*
Over/Under Pick: Under




Denver @ New England(-6.5)  (o/u 52)
Savant Spread Pick: Denver with the points; New England to win ~ 27-20
Over/Under Pick: Under




Buffalo @ San Francisco(-9.5)  (o/u 45)
Savant Spread Pick: San Francisco and the points to win ~ 34-20 *LOCK*
Over/Under Pick: Over




San Diego @ New Orleans(-3.5)  (o/u 53)
Savant Spread Pick: New Orleans and the points to win ~ 29-24
Over/Under Pick: Over




New York(A) v. Houston(-8)  (o/u 41)
Savant Spread Pick: Houston and the points to win ~ 27-16
Over/Under Pick: Under