Wednesday, September 17, 2014

2014 NFL Season - Week 3: Win, Spread, Over/Under and Game Score Predictions

Welcome Back to The Sports Savant's Weekly NFL Picks 2014: Week 3 Edition!


With as unpredictable a game as NFL football is, this is a day I knew would eventually come.  When the winning play happened on Monday Night Football and the Eagles had bested the Colts, it was official; my streak of picking all of the NFL games each week, to win at a .500 cut or better had ended.  My 7-9 finish in last week's games was my first time picking a week under .500, to win(no spread), since I started this blog in 2011 and picked every game of the season in 2011, 2012 and into 2014. It was a streak of 36 regular season weeks, snapped. :-/

As fun as streaks are, they are only streaks and it's the aggregate of a season that truly measures a prognosticator's predicting skills.  The season is undoubtedly a marathon, not a sprint, and there is plenty of time to make up the difference by Week 17.  On a more positive note, my Over/Under was hitting often this week and my 10-6 clip brought my season total back up to .500 in that category.  Going into Week 3, I'm right where I want to be to achieve a .620/.540/.520 in the Win, Spread and Over/Under categories for the season.

After a gory Week 2 of action that saw many star players get tabled with injuries, the research into picking the games is going to get more intense.  Backup players filling star player roles is the theme of Week 3 from RB Mike Asiata relieving RB Adrian Peterson(Inactive) in Minnesota, RB Lamar Miller relieving RB Knowshon Moreno(Broken Elbow) in Miami, RB Donald Brown to replace RB Ryan Matthews in San Diego(MCL Sprain), RB Khiry Robinson in relief for RB Mark Ingram(Broken Hand) in New Orleans and QB Kirk Cousins in relief of QB RGIII(Dislocated Ankle) in Washington. New offensive weapons are also emerging in the NFL like WR Kelvin Benjamin of Carolina, TE Travis Kelce in Kansas City and RB Le'veon Bell in Pittsburgh. The NFL is always a fluid league with situations changing and this season is no different.

Below is my overall record for picking games to win, against the spread and the over/under including trifecta predictions, strikeouts and my perfect team score and perfect game score predictions for the 2014 season.

*WEEK 2 RESULTS*

Winner: 7-9 
Winner w/ Spread: 5-11
Over/Under: 10-6
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Trifecta: 3
Strikeouts: 3
Perfect Team Score Predictions: 1 (Green Bay)
Perfect Game Score Predictions: 0



*2014 Overall Record*
Winner: 19-13-0 (.593)
Winner w/ Spread: 16-16-0 (.500)
Over/Under: 16-16-0 (.500)
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Trifecta: 5
Strikeouts: 4
Perfect Team Score Predictions: 2   [Week 1]: New Orleans, Cincinnati [Week 2]: Green Bay
Perfect Game Score Predictions: 0 


NOTE: The team with a negative number in parenthesis "(-3)" next to their name is the favorite to win the matchup and the number represents how many points the favorite has to score more than the underdog to count as a winning bet.  The over/under for the game is represented by a number in parenthesis with the letters o and u "(o/u 46)".  The number represents the amount of points you are wagering whether or not the two team's combined score will be in excess of or short of.  Official betting lines courtesy of www.footballlocks.com



Here are the picks for Week 3...


Tampa Bay @ Atlanta(-6.5)  (o/u 45)
Savant Spread Pick: Atlanta and the points to win ~ 30-17
Over/Under Pick: Over




San Diego @ Buffalo(-2.5)  (o/u 45.5)
Savant Spread Pick: San Diego to win ~ 23-17
Over/Under Pick: Under




St. Louis v. Dallas(-1)  (o/u 44.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Dallas and the points to win ~ 27-20
Over/Under Pick: Over




Washington @ Philadelphia(-6)  (o/u 50)
Savant Spread Pick: Philadelphia and the points to win ~ 24-16
Over/Under Pick: Under



New York(N) v. Houston(-2)  (o/u 41.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Houston and the points to win ~ 32-13
Over/Under Pick: Over




Minnesota @ New Orleans(-10)  (o/u 49.5)
Savant Spread Pick: New Orleans and the points to win ~ 36-20
Over/Under Pick: Over




Tennessee @ Cincinnati(-7)  (o/u 42.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Tennessee with the points; Cincinnati to win ~ 27-23
Over/Under Pick: Over




Cleveland v. Baltimore(-1.5)  (o/u 41.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Baltimore and the points to win ~ 26-23
Over/Under Pick: Over




Green Bay @ Detroit(-2.5)  (o/u 53)
Savant Spread Pick: Green Bay to win ~ 32-27
Over/Under Pick: Over




Jacksonville v. Indianapolis(-7)  (o/u 45.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Indianapolis and the points to win ~ 32-20
Over/Under Pick: Under




Oakland @ New England(-14)  (o/u 46.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Oakland with the points;
New England to win ~ 27-14
Over/Under Pick: Under




Arizona v. San Francisco(-3)  (o/u 42)
Savant Spread Pick: San Francisco and the points to win ~ 20-14
Over/Under Pick: Under




Denver  @ Seattle(-5)  (o/u 48.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Seattle and the points to win ~ 26-20
Over/Under Pick: Under




Kansas City @ Miami(-4)  (o/u 42)
Savant Spread Pick: Miami and the points to win ~ 23-17
Over/Under Pick: Under




Pittsburgh @ Carolina(-3)  (o/u 41.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Carolina  and the points to win ~ 21-17
Over/Under Pick: Under




Chicago @ New York(A)(-3)  (o/u 45.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Chicago to win ~ 27-17
Over/Under Pick: Under