Thursday, September 27, 2012

NFL Week 4: Win, Spread and Over/Under Predictions

Just when we thought the NFL couldn't have gotten any more unpredictable  the advent of the replacement referees gave us more unpredictability than we've ever seen in a single week in the NFL.  The most notable of these completely unpredictable situations is the game that anyone reading this blog is familiar with, the Green bay interception on Seattle's Hail Mary that was inauspiciously called "simultaneous possession" and ruled a touchdown, erroneously.  This all-time bad call cost Green bay a win and cost me a correct pick last week.  Through it all, I equaled my worst week as an NFL picks prognosticator at 8-8, but relieved to keep my streak of having never finished worse than 8-8(or under .500) in any NFL week I have picked all of the games.

With the agreement between the NFL and the NFL Referees Association, there will be more consistency in picking NFL games and not having acts of randomness by replacement officials clouding good judgement and predictions.  To no surprise, the very first game refereed by the "real" refs, resulted in my Baltimore v. Cleveland pick not only producing a trifecta but the game score of 23-16 was a Justin Tucker missed field away from exacting my 26-16 game score prediction, which would have been my 4th perfect game score prediction in since Week 1 of 2011.  Picking a perfect game score has odds around 500 to 1(0.2%).

With the return of the referees, I expect to have the return of elite NFL picks.  I've done my savant analysis of the Week 4 games you can see below, but first here is a recap of last week's savant pick records and year-to-date records...


*WEEK 3 RESULTS*
Winner: 8-8   :-/
Winner w/ Spread: 6-10  :-(
Over/Under: 7-9 :-(
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Trifecta: 2
Strikeouts: 5
Perfect Team Score Predictions: 3 (Chicago, Washington, New York(A))
Perfect Game Score Predictions: 0

___________


*2012 Overall Record*
Winner: 28-20 (.583)
Winner w/ Spread: 19-27-2 (.413)
Over/Under: 22-24-2 (.478)
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Trifecta: 7
Strikeouts: 12
Perfect Team Score Predictions: 6   [Week 1]: New England  [Week 2]: Indianapolis, San Francisco [Week 3]: Chicago, Washington, New York(A)
Perfect Game Score Predictions: 0


NOTE: The team with a negative number in parenthesis "(-3)" next to their name is the favorite to win the matchup and the number represents how many points the favorite has to score more than the underdog to count as a winning bet.  The over/under for the game is represented by a number in parenthesis with the letters o and u "(o/u 46)".  The number represents the amount of points you are wagering whether or not the two team's combined score will be in excess of or short of.  Official betting lines courtesy of www.footballlocks.com

Don't forget to check therealsportssavant.blogspot.com every week to check my game picks and check the previous week's picks for individual game pick results!  And now I present my Week 3, Sports Savant, NFL picks...




Cleveland @ Baltimore(-12)  (o/u 44)
Savant Spread Pick: Cleveland with the points; Baltimore to win ~ 26-16
Over/Under Pick: Under

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Result: Cleveland 16  Baltimore 23 / Total Points 39 /
Winner: +  Spread: +  O/U: +
*Trifecta*





Buffalo v. New England(-4)  (o/u 50.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Buffalo with the points; New England and the points to win ~ 24-21
Over/Under Pick: Under





Minnesota @ Detroit(-4.5)  (o/u 47.5)
Savant Spread PickMinnesota with the points; Detroit to win ~ 27-23
Over/Under Pick: Over





Carolina @ Atlanta(-7)  (o/u 48.5)
Savant Spread PickAtlanta and the points to win ~ 31-23
Over/Under Pick: Over





New York(A) v. San Francisco(-4)  (o/u 41.5)
Savant Spread PickSan Francisco and the points to win ~ 23-13
Over/Under Pick: Under





Kansas City v. San Diego(-1)  (o/u 44.5)
Savant Spread PickSan Diego and the points to win ~ 26-21
Over/Under Pick: Over





Tennessee @ Houston(-12)  (o/u 44.5)
Savant Spread PickTennessee with the points; Houston to win ~ 28-17
Over/Under Pick: Over





St. Louis v. Seattle(-3)  (o/u 38.5)
Savant Spread PickSeattle and the points to win ~ 31-16
Over/Under Pick: Over





Miami @ Arizona(-5.5)  (o/u 39)
Savant Spread PickArizona and the points to win ~ 19-13
Over/Under Pick: Under





Oakland @ Denver(-7)  (o/u 48.5)
Savant Spread PickDenver and the points to win ~ 31-20
Over/Under Pick: Over





Jacksonville v. Cincinnati(-2.5)  (o/u 43.5)
Savant Spread PickCincinnati and the points to win ~ 23-16
Over/Under Pick: Under





New Orleans v. Green Bay(-7.5)  (o/u 53)
Savant Spread PickGreen Bay and the points to win ~ 38-28
Over/Under Pick: Over





Washington @ Tampa Bay(-2.5)  (o/u 47.5)
Savant Spread PickTampa Bay and the points to win ~ 27-23
Over/Under Pick: Over





New York(N) v. Philadelphia(-2.5)  (o/u 47)
Savant Spread PickNew York(N) to win ~ 24-19
Over/Under Pick: Under





Chicago @ Dallas(-3.5)  (o/u 41.5)
Savant Spread PickDallas and the points to win ~ 26-20
Over/Under Pick: Over

Tuesday, September 25, 2012

NFL Week 3: Reaction and Analysis

It was an interesting week in the NFL Week 3, especially with the influence of the replacement officials and their sometimes stupefying calls and penalties.  Here's a look at the games from Week 3 and some analysis of the teams moving forward....

New York Giants - 36 | Carolina Panthers - 7

This was the first shocking outcome of the NFL's 3rd week and it came on Thursday Night Football.  Carolina, who was a 2.5 point favorite by the spread, completely no-showed for this game.  The Giants were business as usual despite giving the bulk of their running work to a backup running back, Andre Brown, and being without their top wide receiver, Hakeem Nicks.  The absence of these players made Carolina a popular pick to win the game, especially with how dangerous Cam Newton, Steve Smith and Brandon LaFell can be in the passing game against a Giants secondary that has shown it can be compared to some of the league's worst.  The Giants' elite defensive line neutralized the Panthers' passing game by pressuring Cam all night and allowing that bad secondary to breath a sigh of relief.  The Panthers defense was as bad as they've been advertised over the last season plus, but the expectation was that Cam and company would light up that secondary but they never got the opportunity to.



St. Louis Rams - 6 | Chicago Bears - 23

It was back to basics for Jay Cutler and the Bears after a bad offensive outing against Green Bay in Week 2.  To combat their ongoing protection issues, the Bears changed up the game plan to give Jay Cutler more running back screens and roll-outs to use an aggressive pass rush against itself.  These types of plays can assist a team with poor pass protection, but are higher risk and harder to be consistent with.  This play selection was proven somewhat effective against a Rams pass defense that is much improved since acquiring former Titans CB Cortland Finnegan(who had an interception in this game).  This style of play-calling won't be successful for teams that are prepared for it or have more speed at linebacker or a dominant defensive line, none of which St. Louis has.  The Rams continued to give the Bears opportunities by not moving the ball the entire game and it was finally broken wide open with an interception return for a TD by Bears' defensive back, Major Wright late in the game.  Little positive can be said for any aspect of the Rams' performance on offense or defense.  They are looking like the doormat team they were a season ago.



Buffalo Bills - 24 | Cleveland Browns - 14

The Buffalo Bills are showing signs that their blowout loss against the Jets in Week 1 was just an anomoly.  In that first game, Bills' QB Ryan Fitzpatrick threw 3 interceptions, but has posted 5 TDs and 0 interceptions in his last two games, including 3 this week versus the Browns.  The Bills did suffer another big loss at running back this week when the NFL's leading rusher, RB C.J. Spiller went out in the 1st quarter with what looked like a seperated shoulder or potential broken clavicle.  Already missing Fred Jackson with a sprained LCL in his left knee, this could have been a disaster for the Bills, but their third string running back, the former Dallas Cowboy, Tashard Choice filled in very respectably for the two injured backs rushing for over 90 yards.  The Browns, though in three tough losses, are showing that they can compete in any given week.  Rookie QB Brandon Weeden has matured very quickly and bounced back from his 4 interception day in Week 1 to post a 300 yard game and a quality start against the Bills.  The Browns may surprise someone one week with a big upset.



Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 10 | Dallas Cowboys - 16

This was one of the more uninspiring wins for the Dallas Cowboys in recent memory, but considering they were coming off of a bad loss to Seattle where they were manhandled, any kind of win would be considered an improvement.  The Dallas defense did their job to contain what is a pretty pedestrian offense lead by QB Josh Freeman, RB Doug Martin and WRs Vincent Jackson and Mike Williams.  What's more worrisome for the Cowboys is we saw some poor play and decision making on the part of Tony Romo again.  He didn't have a passing TD in this game and threw a bad interception that lead to the only Buccaneer TD.  The Cowboys are going to have to see more production from their offense if they want to have even a chance to win the NFC East division, nonetheless, the Super Bowl they claim that they have a chance for this year.  The Buccaneers look a bit more disciplined under new HC Greg Schiano, but they are still trying to overcome a lack of major talent at the skill positions.  Vincent Jackson is making half of the impact they expect from him so far and Doug Martin has looked like a respectable RB, but this team is still a long way from being considered a contender in the NFC South.



Jacksonville Jaguars - 22 | Indianapolis Colts - 17

Little can be said for the future of either of these two teams.  The game was pretty poorly played on both sides, but in the spirit of there having to be a winner, it was Jacksonville that was able to strike on an 80 yard TD with less than a minute left in the game to win it.  The only reason the Jaguars were able to score at all was merely because of two enormously blown assignments on a 59 yard romp by MJD and the aforementioned 80 yard TD by Cecil Shorts.  That 80 yard TD pass accounted for 52% of Blaine Gabbert's passing yards for the entire game.  It was all MJD in this one, proving that the lockout has had and won't have any ill-effects on his game.  Andrew Luck actually looked better than Gabbert in this one, but he was failed by their very accurate kicker, Adam Vinatieri, on a missed chip-shot FG that would have changed the progression of the game.  These teams will still be fighting over last place in the AFC South at the end of the year.



New York Jets - 23 | Miami Dolphins - 20

In some cases, the winner of the game is not represented by the score.  In thsi game, that is the case.  Miami played so much better than the Jets, they should have won this game hands down.  Some bac breaks and a missed FG by their usually very reliable kick, Dan Carpenter, was their demise.  The Jets looked nothing short of atrocious on offense.  If not for a very rookie mistake by the Dolphins QB Ryan Tannehill that lead to one of the easiest interception returns for a TD you'll see for the Jets, the Jets unequivocally lose this game.  It was more a matter of the Dolphins' inability to help themselves on offense that lead to this Jets win than a Jets defensive performance.  The biggest story to come out of the game though was the Jets' loss of All-Pro defensive back, Darrell Revis.  He's arguably the MVP of the entire team on either side of the ball and his injury is massive blow to the Jets' already slim chances of seeing the playoffs.  Opposing teams have accumulated a 78% completion rate  and 5/0 TD:INT ratio when Revis is not on the field compared to only 56% and a 15:21 TD:INT ratio while he is in.  On other note, Reggie Bush had a scare in the game leaving the game in the 2nd quarter with a bruised knee.  It was first feared that he had structural damage to the knee, but after an MRI reports are he is ok and could play this Sunday.



San Francisco 49ers - 13 | Minnesota Vikings - 24 

In the surprise game of the day, the Vikings found a way to win, not behind the legs of their All-Pro running back, but behind their inexperienced QB, Christian Ponder.  Having the best game of his career, Ponder was poised and very accurate on almost all of his passes and was peppering his TE Kyle Rudolph all day including two TD receptions for Rudolph.  Even more surprisingly, the Vikings much maligned defense played the best game we've seen from them in years.  This very defense has made superstars out of sub-par QB's in the first two weeks of the season and suddenly flipped the switch when the 49ers came to town.  In contradiction to the Vikings, the 49ers had one of their worst combined offensive and defensive games in the Jim Harbaugh era.  The 49ers, who give up under 80 yards per game rushing under Harbaugh gave up 146 yards rushing albeit on a massive 41 rushing attempts.  The 49ers also had very uncharacteristic turnovers by Frank Gore and Alex Smith.  Smith's one interception was his first in 249 passes which was an ongoing 49ers record.  The once seemingly weakness-free Niners have some questions to answer in their secondary if they are going to have championship aspirations.  The Vikings, though posting an impressive win against one of the NFL's top teams can still expect to come up short of their very competitive division with the Bears, Packers and Lions to face, but this is a game no one had them winning this year.







Kansas City Chiefs - 27 | New Orleans Saints - 24

In what was the second biggest shocker of the day behind the 49ers loss to the Lions was the New Orleans Saints falling to 0-2 at home and 0-3 overall against the Kansas City Chiefs who people have been talking about as one of the weaker teams in the NFL.  I don't personally believe the Chiefs are all as bad as people make them out to be, but they have no business going into the Mercedes-Benz Superdome and winning a game in New Orleans.  The Saints were a perfect 8-0 at home last season and appeared unbeatable with their home advantage in recent years, but with this unbelievably bad defense the Saints have put together in 2012, in part hampered by the loss of linebackers Jonathon Vilma to suspension/injury and Scott Fujita to free agency, they can't seem to stop anything wearing an opposing jersey.  We all know how talented and fast Chiefs RB Jamaal Charles is but anytime you give up 233 yards rushing to not just a team, but to one individual, that's about as bad a day as you can have on defense.  There's no doubt that these losses are more about how bad the Saints are than their opponent's performance.  The three teams that have beaten the Saints have recorded their only win of the season against New Orleans through Week 3 making their opponents 0-6 in other games.  The Saints now join the Browns as the only 0-3 teams in the NFL.  To make matters worse, only 3 of 118 teams have made the playoffs after starting the season 0-3 since the new playoff format adopted in 1990.  This would indicate that the Saints playoff hopes are already hopeless.



Detroit Lions - 41 | Tennessee Titans - 44

In the highest scoring game of the year, the teams combined for 85 points, but accounted for an NFL record 46 of those points in the 4th quarter.  This was a game that saw a cross-field lateral 60 yard punt return for a TD, a 105 yard kickoff return for a TD, a 71 yard TD reception and a 72 yard strip fumble return for TD, all by the Titans.  The Lions amazingly scored a TD late, got an onside kick and then scored another TD on a Hail Mary heave that was tipped and caught by Tidus Young to tie it at the end of regulation.  The two TDs happened in the last 18 game seconds.  In overtime the Titans posted a FG and on the Lions possession came to a 4th down and 1 in the redzone and instead of attempting a game tying chip-shot FG, they ran a QB keeper which failed and ended the game.  The Lions looked an absolute mess on special teams and defense giving up TDs in every way you can imagine.  The Lions have no chance of snatching away the NFC North from Green Bay or Chicago looking this awful in those phases of the game.  This team still has the lack of discipline they were criticized over last season and it seems HC Jim Schwartz is helpless to get his players to perform basic tasks of discipline to sure up these mental let-downs.  The Titans mostly took advantage of a sloppy playing Lions team, so though 44 points looks nice, it is more a facade of potent offense.  Three of the Titans TDs were scored by the defense or special teams.  Lions QB Matthew Stafford did leave the game late in this one and is questionable to play next week with a strained calf.



Cincinnati Bengals - 38 | Washington Redskins - 31

This was a game that nearly added an early chapter to the young RGIII legacy.  The Bengals began the game on the first play with a wildcat formation putting rookie WR Mohamed Sanu in at QB.  Sanu took the snap and promptly hit A.J. Green in stride for a 73 yard TD pass.  From there, the Bengals would rack up a 24-7 lead and would beat up on RGIII all day.  Robert Griffin remained undeterred though and would come back to lead the Redskins on multiple scoring drives score 17 unanswered points to bring them back into the game.  The Bengals would outlast the strong comeback from RGIII and the Redskins to survive by a TD.  The biggest storyline was not just how amazing RGII continues to perform, even when faced with a big deficit, but also the play of sophomore QB Andy Dalton, who has been expected to take a big step building off of his successful rookie campaign last year.  Dalton is looking every bit the prospect he was coming into his second year and more while RGIII just continues to show us what.  What's going relatively unnoticed though is the emergence of unknown WR Andrew Hawkins who has quickly become the complementary receiver the Bengals have needed opposite A.J. Green.  BenJarvus Green-Ellis has quietly posted solid numbers for them in the running game and the offense is clicking.  It's their defense, which was supposed to be the strong suit of the Bengals that has failed them so far.



Philadelphia Eagles - 6 | Arizona Cardinals - 27

It just continues to look ugly for the Eagles.  After being the first team to go 2-0 with 9 turnovers, the turnovers finally caught up with them.  Michael Vick and the Eagles suffered 3 more turnovers and no semblance of offense against what has been an extraordinaraly underrated defense in the Cardinals.  I was one of the few people that had Arizona to win this game, but even I couldn't have forseen this kind of a blowout.  Kevin Kolb, QB for the Cardinals, continues to show why he was brought in via trade from the Eagles to be their starting QB in the absence of the previously named starter, John Skelton, who is still out with an ankle injury suffered last week.  It will be interesting to see who gets to have the starting job when Skelton returns to health.  As for the Eagles, they may be 2-1, but they have looked about as ugly as you can look in those games.  The defense is about where we thought it would be and actually looked pretty good despite the 27 points allowed which was more the fault of the offense turning the ball over, one of which resulted in a returned TD.  Vick is getting eviscerated at the QB position.  He has been hit 56 times in 3 games, which has to be a record for QB hits in three games.  If the Eagles want to have a chance at anything this year, they have got to get Vick protected and keep him healthy.  Handing the ball off would be a good start in ensuring that, but HC Andy Reid is too stubborn.  No one has passed on a higher percentage of plays than Reid in his coaching career.




Atlanta Falcons - 27 | San Diego Chargers - 3

The Atlanta Falcons continued to impress by flying out west to face the previously unbeaten Chargers and take a convincing win back to Atlanta.  Matt Ryan is showing that he is on the cusp of becoming one of the league's next elite QBs with his 2012 season so far.  The one worry for the Falcons was how abysmal their running game has been, but Michael Turner and Jacquizz Rodgers put that to bed, at least for this week, by combining for 112 yards rushing in the victory.  Atlanta's defense seems to be unfazed by the loss of their All-Pro corner, Brent Grimes, who is now out for the season with a ruptured achilles by keeping Philip Rivers and the entire offense out of the endzone all game.  It's back to the drawing board for the Chargers who didn't look overly impressive in their two wins before this game, but they have to be concerned with how they got served in their own house by an east coast team.  The Falcons are one of the NFL's top five teams right now, but to get blown out in such dominant fashion is a real concern.  I think they'll bounce back and make a run at the AFC West, but it appears that the Falcons already have a pretty nice path to winning their division now that New Orleans is 0-3, the Bucs aren't a threat and the Panthers were already having problems with their defense but now their offense is regressing.  I think at this point Atlanta is already a clear favorite in a division we thought would be much more contested.



Houston Texans - 31 | Denver Broncos - 25

For a second straight week a late Peyton Manning comeback falls short for the Broncos.  After getting out to a comfortable lead, the Texans were attempting to simply burn clock with just under 10:00 left in the game when RB Ben Tate fumbled the ball which lead to a Denver score.  Another late score by Manning would bring them within 6 points but the comeback would end there.  Peyton looks like he's still working out the wrinkles in this offense and isn't quite on point yet with this throws.  He narrowly missed a couple of TD passes to Demaryius Thomas including one that was caught but Thomas didn't have the presence of mind to drag his second foot before going out of bounds thus getting the TD call reversed.  Texans Qb Matt Shaub was on the money all day in every facet of the game.  He finished his day with four TD passes including an two absolute bombs; a 60 yarder to Andre Johnson and 52 yard deep ball to Kevin Walter.  Just when we thought the key to meutraslizing the Texans offense was to stop Arain Foster and the running game, Schaub and the Texans have shown that they can and will beat teams through the air as well.  With one of the league's top rated defenses, there seems to be no more complete team in the NFL.  The Broncos are very close to being a very good team.  They are missing plays and throws by the smallest of margins.  This feels like a team that may sturggle a little in the coming weeks, but could be a very dangerous team once the chemistry between Manning and his receivers is in full effect.



Pittsburgh Steelers - 31 | Oakland Raiders - 34

It's becoming painfully obvious that the Steelers are a shell of their former selves.  A team known first for crushing defense and a 'ground and pound' mentality has neither of those elements working in the 2012 version of this team.  Ben and the passing game is probably as good as they've ever been since Ben was drafted, but with the running game and defense taking steps back, the step forward that this offense has taken under new OC Todd Haley in the passing game still comes out to an aggregate negative.  This defense is missing veteran leaders James Harrison and Troy Polamalu right now with injuries, but even when Polamalu has been healthy in the last year and Week 1 of this year, he has not looked like the All-Pro safety we are accustomed to.  It looks like he may be on the decline and we don't know what the Steelers will get out of Harrison with his surgically repaired knee when he comes back.  This was a very encouraging win for Oakland, however.  Carson Palmer looks like he is finally getting comfortable in this offense after being acquired via trade in the middle of last season.  If he can come to old form, when he was the #1 overall player selected in the draft and won a bunch of games for the Bengals, he and that massive running game behind the legs of world class speedster Darren McFadden could take them all the way to an AFC West title with no one stepping up as a favorite in that division yet.  The Steelers are looking like a team that will be lucky to grab the final wildcard spot in the AFC.  They are certainly capable of it, but I can't see them surpassing the Ravens with how good they have looked so far this year.


 
New England Patriots - 30 | Baltimore Ravens - 31 

This rematch of last year's AFC Championship had a number of unique storylines.  First, you had the Ravens young standout WR Torrey Smith playing emotionally inspired by the death of his younger brother who died in a motorcycle accident less than 24 hours before kickoff.  He would turn that emotional inspiration into the biggest game of his life.  Smith grabbed 6 balls for 127 yards and 2 TDs making him one of the biggest factors in this game for Baltimore.  There were a number of questionable calls in the game, which actually lead to an NFL game record 13 penalties that resulted in first downs.  In a game littered with yellow laundry, what stood out the most was how Joe Flacco has seemed to respond to his critics that say he is the weak link in this offense and that the team is to reliant on stud RB Ray Rice.  Flacco is putting his doubters to rest by playing at a very high level and against some pretty good competition.  The Patriots are left reeling after a second consecutive loss, but what really has them perturbed is the way the game ended.  It appeared that the final field goal that won the game as time expired may have gone directly over the crossbar and not inside of it, which sent all of the Patriots players into a furor.  So much so that HC Bill Belichick went rampaging after an official and even attempted to grab him by the arm as he was jogging off of the field.  Belichick can expect a nice sized fine for that one.  In all, the Patriots just don't have the glamour or intimidation they once possessed and it could be that this team, after a decade of rich success may finally be coming back to earth a bit.  In this game, it looked like the Ravens who would be destined for an AFC Championship appearance in 2012 and not the Patriots.




Green Bay Packers - 12 | Seattle Seahawks - 14

There's no evaluating this game without first recognizing that the Packers were more blatantly robbed of this win than any game I've seen in over 15 years of watching the NFL.  Amongst many bad calls around the NFL since the beginning of the season with the replacement refs, none have been as egregious as the Hail Mary interception thrown by Seattle's Russell Wilson that was ultimately ruled a TD based on what the refs saw as 'simultaneous possession' of the football.  The reality is, the ball was first intercepted and after coming to the ground, Seattle's WR Golden Tate wrestled his arm into the cradled arms of the Packers' defender and gave the illusion that he had some kind of possession of the ball.  To his credit, the scam worked and Seattle stole one from Green Bay on the backs of the replacement officials.  Aside from that, this game looked very ugly for both teams.  Seattle stunned Green Bay with 8 first half sacks, but then continued to get in their own way on offense with very little movement of the ball.  It's a very rare thing to keep Aaron Rodgers to just 223 yards and 0 TD passes and still lose the game, which is what Seattle should have been up against if not for the blown call at the end.  This reversal of fortunes could have huge playoff implications going forward.  If the Packers somehow miss the playoffs by one game, they will know who to blame.  Seattle looks like they could be an eventual playoff contender, but they are going to have to get Russell Wilson better at finding hot reads in blitz situations.  Coming into the game, Wilson had a 78% completion rate when facing just four rushers.  That percentage drops to under 50% when facing the blitz.  Though this loss is alarming for the Packers, there's no need for panic at this juncture as other teams in the NFC North haven't shown any dominance or have began to pull away from the pack.



Saturday, September 22, 2012

Savant Fantasy Analysis: Week 3 'Bulls'

Welcome to The Sports Savant's 'Bulls' fantasy football stock watch!

Each week of the NFL season I try to provide some clarity on the week's most crucial fantasy matchups and player fantasy stock.  Through analysis, I try to help you make sound decisions on who you can expect to produce so you can make adjustments to your fantasy lineup.  Here are my NFL Week 3 'Bulls':


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Robert Griffin III (Was-QB)
Griffin has already shown us that he can be a fantasy impact player in just two weeks as a starting QB in the NFL.  He scored the second most fantasy points in the NFL last week(behind only Reggie Bush) so a spot for him in the Bulls section is obvious.  I include RGIII in this Bulls and Bears article because as good as he has been in the first two weeks, I am doubling down on his performance this week against the Bengals.  Cincy has already given up 308.5 passing yards per game to opponents and that includes getting shredded by rookie QB Brandon Weeden and the Cleveland Browns.  This is a very tasty matchup for RGIII owners.  The only way I'm not starting this guy if he's on my bench is if I have one of the few elite QB's already starting, but this guy is a fantasy must start for fantasy owners that have anyone but Brees, Rodgers or Brady.  This could very well be the game that catapults him from rock solid fantasy starter to top fantasy asset in 2012.

Savant Prediction:  318 Passing Yards, 44 Rushing Yards, 2 TDs-Passing , 1 TD-Rushing , 1 INT






Michael Bush (Chi-RB)
It was announced on Friday that Matt Forte will be unavailable for Week 3's game due to an ankle injury.  This means Bush goes from just a goal line running back to a full-time workhouse for Lovie Smith and the Bears offense.  Bush has proven that he is more than capable of being an every down back by filling in magnificently for Darren McFadden and the Oakland Raiders over the second half of last season.  Once he secured that role with Oaklnd, he averaged over 100 yards rushing per game and added about a TD per game as well.  He will be a monster against a very weak Rams rush defense that was the league's worst in 2011.  I expect top 5 fantasy numbers for Bush this week and is a must start in any format.

Savant Prediction:  119 Rushing Yards, 2 Receptions, 17 Receiving Yards, 2 TDs-Rushing




 
Michael Crabtree (SF-WR)
In the last couple of games, 49ers TE Vernon Davis has been geting much of the fantasy attention in that passing game because he has connected on three touchdowns with Alex Smith already.  What's gone largely unnoticed in the fantasy community is that Crabtree, not Davis, has been Smith's favorite target.  Smith has been finding Crabtree on almost every third and passing situation and they have connected on a crisp, 81.3% completion rate, tops in the NFL for players with more than 15 targets.  The Vikings secondary was torched all last year and they have shown no signs of improving that pass defense anytime soon in 2012.  The Vikings have made both Blaine Gabbert and rookie Andrew Luck look like Dan Marino in 1983.  Smith is far superior to those two QB's right now and Crabtree should be the biggest beneficiary of this monster matchup.  He'll be especially pertinent in PPR leagues.

Savant Prediction:   8 Receptions, 94 Receiving Yards, 1 TD-Receiving




 
Dwayne Bowe (KC-WR) 
After being mostly forgotten in Week 1 behind RB Dexter McCluster's receiving display for KC, Week 2 was a very different story for Bowe who took advantage of his opportunities and scored a couple of late TDs in a blowout loss to Buffalo.  We know Bowe is supremely talented and has a history of being a big playmaker and TD machine when he caught 15 TDs and went for over 1,000 in 2010.  His fantasy value was heavily diminished last year due to a number of Chiefs injuries, most botably to Qb Matt Cassel that had Bowe catching passes from inexperienced QB Tyler Palko.  Bowe's matchup couldn't be any meatier against one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL in the New Orlean Saints.  The other fantasy factor to consider that gives Bowe an advantage is that the Saints very well could get up big early in the game causing the Chiefs to put the ball in the air 40 or 50 times to try and keep up.  On sheer volume, matchup and fantasy points ceiling, I am starting Bowe over many top tier WRs this week.

Savant Prediction:  7 Receptions, 107 Receiving Yards, 1 TD-Receiving 





 
Jamaal Charles (KC-RB)
Charles has been mostly quiet through the first couple of fantasy football weeks, largely due to leaving halfway through the second game with what has been called a "knee bruise".  The Chiefs are adamant that Charles could have returned to the game if they were in contention and that he was held out of the second half as a "precaution".  All signs indicate that Charles is healthy and ready to roll.  The Saints have given up five rushing TDs already this season and are looking very soft against the run.  Add in the fact that the Saints have a hard time covering RBs as well and you have yourself not only a nice fantasy RB play, but a guy who can get you points in the passing game as well.  I like Jamaal Charles to come out in this game and show everyone that he is not to be forgotten as a fantasy impact player.

 Savant Prediction:  74 Rushing Yards, 4 Receptions, 44 Receiving Yards, 1 TD-Receiving




 
Dennis Pitta (Bal- TE) 
Coming out of nowhere, Pitta is fast turning into the most added TE on the wire.  He has gained so much fantasy buzz over the last two weeks because he has emerged as a primary target in the Ravens' new no-huddle offense they have been running in 2012.  Pitta leads all TE's in the NFL in targets with one more than Jimmy Graham.  He also has shown that he has the reliable hands and disciplined route running to get himself free for Flacco to find over the middle.  It doesn't hurt that he and Flacco are also best of friends of the field, strengthening that chemistry they have as the season goes on.  He has the potential to score just as many points as the league's elite TEs on any given week.  if you are a Frd Davis, Scott Chandler, Jacob Tamme or Kyle Rudolph owner you are definitely adding this guy.  You may even find yourself dropping the likes of Tony Gonzalez or Jermichael Finley for Pitta by season's end.

Savant Prediction:  6 catches, 84 yards, 1 TD-Receiving 



Other 'BULLS' Notables:

Kenny Britt (Ten-WR) - 5 Receptions, 91 Receiving Yards, 1 TD-Receiving
Ben Roethlisberger - 284 Passing Yards, 21 Rushing Yards, 2 TDs-Passing, 1 INT
Andrew Hawkins (Cin-WR) - 6 Receptions, 92 Receiving Yards, 1 TD-Receiving
Bills D/ST - 17 Points Allowed, 2 Sacks, 2 INTs, 1 Fumble Recovery

Friday, September 21, 2012

Fantasy Analysis: RGIII Could Be Your 'Royal Flush'


When Robert Griffin III became a Heisman trophy winner at Baylor, a numerically proven hype machine in the NFL scouting combine, and a 2nd overall draft selection by the Redskins in 2012, he came into training camp and the preseason as a cautiously optimistic commodity in the eyes of fantasy football team owners.  Being drafted in the seventh to ninth round in most fantasy football drafts, team owners put the kind of stock in RGIII you might put into being dealt a Ten-Queen, suited hand in a poker game; a moderate hand but with loads of potential.

After the first week, when RGIII shocked us all with his veteran like poise and sharp accuracy under the full-speed duress of an NFL pass-rush, the poker game we fantasy football owners play with rising and falling player stocks got very intriguing in RGIII’s case.  As if the Ten-Queen suited hand of cards he was coming into the game with wasn’t enough marked potential, the ante went up significantly with his breakout game against New Orleans.  We all speculated at least a modest come back to earth for RGIII against a St. Louis Rams team that had just intercepted star quarterback, Matthew Stafford, three times in a tight loss on the road and they were going to be hosting against Washington.

RGIII responded to the Week 2 road matchup versus the Rams like a vetted pro.  He finished with a crisp 69% passing on 29 attempts for over 200 yards and a respectable 1 TD and 1 INT passing the ball.  It was his two huge rushing TD’s and 82 rushing yards though, that propelled him to the second most fantasy points in the league at any position for Week 2, a hair behind Reggie Bush’s 197 total yard, 2 TD performance for Miami.

And with that impressive showing in Week 2, the RGIII poker hand that started as a Ten-Queen, suited, just saw another Queen off-suited, and a King-Jack of matching suit strike on the flop.

In other words, he has shown that he is our fantasy football equivalent to being about as safe a bet as playing a poker hand with a pair of Queens, a hand very often won within a poker game, but with his Week 2 success versus the Rams he’s left us with a matching suited King-Jack, to potentially become the most unbeatable hand in poker and fantasy football, the ‘Royal Flush’.

The ‘Royal Flush’ is that fantasy player that scores in the Top 3 in total fantasy points almost every week and propels even an average fantasy team into a championship hopeful.  Last year, it was Aaron Rodgers as the league’s ‘Royal Flush’ with Cam Newton and Arian Foster closely considered if Foster hadn’t missed games and Newton hadn’t had his come back to earth from the fantasy stratosphere over the second half in 2011.  It’s been guys who never give you a bad week and always give you a chance to win even if you don’t get good stats from your other starters.  The ‘Royal Flush’ is an ultimate fantasy game-changer; a weekly statistical powerhouse.

There are a number of reasons one could speculate why RGIII will become the ‘Royal Flush’ of fantasy football in 2012.  Many of those reasons you know: He has a rocket arm, pinpoint accuracy, a keen awareness in the pocket, a 4.41 – 40 yard dash and an astute football IQ.  He’s everything you want in a young, perennial superstar quarterback.  It’s a player’s environment that can often dictate his fantasy ceiling, but when you look at the scenarios revolving around RGIII, it appears everything could be in place for the sky to be the limit for his future fantasy value in 2012.

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Mike Shanahan, QB Extraordinaire – We tend to forget that the Head Coach of the Washington Redskins is one of the all-time great QB gurus in NFL history.  Once upon a time, before many of us remember, Shanahan was making a living as an assistant coach for the 49ers, winning Super Bowl XXIX as the 49ers Offensive Coordinator with QB Steve Young and later becoming a Head Coach for the Broncos and winning back-to-back Super Bowls(XXII, XXIII) with QB John Elway.  This guy knows how to produce elite QB’s and it will advance RGIII’s progress three-fold more than if he had been drafted to a team with a defensive minded HC.  Shanahan is a major reason why you are seeing such an immediately polished QB product in RGIII.

Shanahan’s West Coast Offense – Mike Shanahan has been running the West Coast Offense since 1992, working as an assistant to its creator, Bill Walsh.  The system is predicated on using timing and high-percentage short yard passing plays that work as “extended handoffs”.  It’s this offense that produced RGIII’s clean, 69% completion rate in Week 2 versus one of the top DB’s in Cortland Finnegan and the Rams.  These high-percentage passes result in more easy yards and big run-after-catch potential.  RGIII’s first TD pass that went for 80 yards to Pierre Garcon was a five-step drop, ten-yard in, with perfect timing; a staple of the West Coast Offense.  The even scarier part for RGIII’s fantasy value is that Shanahan has modified his West Coast playbook with some designed runs for RGIII straight out of his Baylor playbook from college, making him a dual passing and rushing TD threat like Cam Newton was a year ago.

The Emergence of Alfred Morris, Depth at RB – If fantasy players know anything about Mike Shanahan, they know not to trust running backs in his system for fantasy points because he has been historically a believer in a RB by committee since coaching in Washington, which is a direct contrast of his rushing philosophy with Denver, where he always had a work-horse back(Terrell Davis, Clinton Portis, Mike Anderson, etc…).  No one knew who would emerge as the lead back in his offense even going into the kickoff of the first game this year, but we quickly learned that Alfred Morris, the biggest bruiser back they have will get a bulk of the load(for now).  He has done a fine job being the team’s horse through two weeks and that will keep defenses honest against RGIII’s passing game.  What’s additionally nice about having a stable of good running backs, like the Redskins do with Evan Royster and Roy Helu in the mix with Morris, you never have to fear that RGIII’s fantasy stock will die with the injury of the team’s lead running back.  If Alfred Morris were to go down, there is little to no drop off in talent behind him, especially in Mike Shanahan’s fabled zone blocking scheme that turns late-round talents into thousand yard rushers.

Pedestrian Redskins Defense, High Scoring Affairs – The Redskins return a defense that gave up the 12th most points in the NFL(22.9ppg) last year and they have looked even worse this season giving up 31.5ppg in their first two games of 2012.  This defense is going to put the Redskins in a lot of holes and potentially a couple of blowouts that will require more than 40 or 50 pass attempts from RGIII just to keep them in contention.  His value will rise on sheer volume in these games and he can pick up loads of yards in “garbage time” when the opposing team’s defense is more interested in burning clock than stopping yardage when up big in the 4th quarter.

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So here lies RGIII’s current stock, today, as a hand at poker:  A Ten-Queen suited, dealt, another Queen off-suited, and King-Jack of matching suit, on the table after Week 2.  The stakes are high awaiting that 4th turn card which will reveal itself after this weekend’s matchup at home versus the Cincinnati Bengals.  With an explosive fantasy performance, which he will be more than capable of against a Bengal defense that has allowed 308.5 passing yards per game(29th in NFL) and 35.5ppg(28th in NFL) thus far, that 4th turn card could very easily produce a 3rd Queen, a very difficult hand to beat, lifting him into the projected top 5 QB tier.  With more strong performances in the games thereafter, he could just land that Ace, suited, on the river, to complete the RGIII Royal Flush and carry your fantasy football team to a title to go with it.

His ‘Royal’ potential and minimal fantasy floor going forward, based on the consistency he’s already achieved in his first two starts, makes him the ultimate trade wire deal right now.  If you can get him for a mid-tier RB2 or mid WR1 talent and you don’t have an elite passer, don’t wait!  I’m buying in and I’m buying in now while his stock is at this point because it will never be as low as it is now the rest of the 2012 season.

If you have an elite passer like a Drew Brees, Matthew Stafford, Tom Brady, or Aaron Rodgers as your starter and RGIII on your bench, look at getting an elite player deal in exchange for your elite QB.  Make the blockbuster deal for a player in an area where you’ve sustained narrowed depth due to injury or is just a real problem area on your team.  Turn those points on your bench into points you can use at other areas of your starting lineup.

It’ll be beneficial to your team if you look into a multi-player deal for Calvin Johnson or Arian Foster in exchange for your elite QB.  Anything you can work out to acquire an elite player, at another position, in the area your team needs the biggest boost will upgrade your team and give room for RGIII to lead the way.  If you can’t get the deal you’re looking for now, move your elite QB in favor of RGIII when someone in your league gets desperate because of an injury at QB or is panicked over a losing streak.  You’ll upgrade your team’s point production significantly with RGIII and Johnson or Foster in your lineup rather than Brees and a mid-tier WR1 with RGIII exploding for points on your bench.

Of course, you can always wait him out and trade RGIII when his stock gets even higher, but if you’re going to deal him now, make sure the players you are getting in return appropriately display your trade partner’s shared enthusiasm for his value.  If you don’t have RGIII, you need to at least look into acquiring him.  If you have an elite passer ahead of him on your depth chart, look into making a bold trade move to make space for him to be your starter.  Either way, you won’t regret making the move to RGIII.  He’s got ‘Royal Flush’ potential and my chips are all-in on his hand.