Thursday, September 27, 2012

NFL Week 4: Win, Spread and Over/Under Predictions

Just when we thought the NFL couldn't have gotten any more unpredictable  the advent of the replacement referees gave us more unpredictability than we've ever seen in a single week in the NFL.  The most notable of these completely unpredictable situations is the game that anyone reading this blog is familiar with, the Green bay interception on Seattle's Hail Mary that was inauspiciously called "simultaneous possession" and ruled a touchdown, erroneously.  This all-time bad call cost Green bay a win and cost me a correct pick last week.  Through it all, I equaled my worst week as an NFL picks prognosticator at 8-8, but relieved to keep my streak of having never finished worse than 8-8(or under .500) in any NFL week I have picked all of the games.

With the agreement between the NFL and the NFL Referees Association, there will be more consistency in picking NFL games and not having acts of randomness by replacement officials clouding good judgement and predictions.  To no surprise, the very first game refereed by the "real" refs, resulted in my Baltimore v. Cleveland pick not only producing a trifecta but the game score of 23-16 was a Justin Tucker missed field away from exacting my 26-16 game score prediction, which would have been my 4th perfect game score prediction in since Week 1 of 2011.  Picking a perfect game score has odds around 500 to 1(0.2%).

With the return of the referees, I expect to have the return of elite NFL picks.  I've done my savant analysis of the Week 4 games you can see below, but first here is a recap of last week's savant pick records and year-to-date records...

Winner: 8-8   :-/
Winner w/ Spread: 6-10  :-(
Over/Under: 7-9 :-(
Trifecta: 2
Strikeouts: 5
Perfect Team Score Predictions: 3 (Chicago, Washington, New York(A))
Perfect Game Score Predictions: 0


*2012 Overall Record*
Winner: 28-20 (.583)
Winner w/ Spread: 19-27-2 (.413)
Over/Under: 22-24-2 (.478)

Trifecta: 7
Strikeouts: 12
Perfect Team Score Predictions: 6   [Week 1]: New England  [Week 2]: Indianapolis, San Francisco [Week 3]: Chicago, Washington, New York(A)
Perfect Game Score Predictions: 0

NOTE: The team with a negative number in parenthesis "(-3)" next to their name is the favorite to win the matchup and the number represents how many points the favorite has to score more than the underdog to count as a winning bet.  The over/under for the game is represented by a number in parenthesis with the letters o and u "(o/u 46)".  The number represents the amount of points you are wagering whether or not the two team's combined score will be in excess of or short of.  Official betting lines courtesy of

Don't forget to check every week to check my game picks and check the previous week's picks for individual game pick results!  And now I present my Week 3, Sports Savant, NFL picks...

Cleveland @ Baltimore(-12)  (o/u 44)
Savant Spread Pick: Cleveland with the points; Baltimore to win ~ 26-16
Over/Under Pick: Under

Result: Cleveland 16  Baltimore 23 / Total Points 39 /
Winner: +  Spread: +  O/U: +

Buffalo v. New England(-4)  (o/u 50.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Buffalo with the points; New England and the points to win ~ 24-21
Over/Under Pick: Under

Minnesota @ Detroit(-4.5)  (o/u 47.5)
Savant Spread PickMinnesota with the points; Detroit to win ~ 27-23
Over/Under Pick: Over

Carolina @ Atlanta(-7)  (o/u 48.5)
Savant Spread PickAtlanta and the points to win ~ 31-23
Over/Under Pick: Over

New York(A) v. San Francisco(-4)  (o/u 41.5)
Savant Spread PickSan Francisco and the points to win ~ 23-13
Over/Under Pick: Under

Kansas City v. San Diego(-1)  (o/u 44.5)
Savant Spread PickSan Diego and the points to win ~ 26-21
Over/Under Pick: Over

Tennessee @ Houston(-12)  (o/u 44.5)
Savant Spread PickTennessee with the points; Houston to win ~ 28-17
Over/Under Pick: Over

St. Louis v. Seattle(-3)  (o/u 38.5)
Savant Spread PickSeattle and the points to win ~ 31-16
Over/Under Pick: Over

Miami @ Arizona(-5.5)  (o/u 39)
Savant Spread PickArizona and the points to win ~ 19-13
Over/Under Pick: Under

Oakland @ Denver(-7)  (o/u 48.5)
Savant Spread PickDenver and the points to win ~ 31-20
Over/Under Pick: Over

Jacksonville v. Cincinnati(-2.5)  (o/u 43.5)
Savant Spread PickCincinnati and the points to win ~ 23-16
Over/Under Pick: Under

New Orleans v. Green Bay(-7.5)  (o/u 53)
Savant Spread PickGreen Bay and the points to win ~ 38-28
Over/Under Pick: Over

Washington @ Tampa Bay(-2.5)  (o/u 47.5)
Savant Spread PickTampa Bay and the points to win ~ 27-23
Over/Under Pick: Over

New York(N) v. Philadelphia(-2.5)  (o/u 47)
Savant Spread PickNew York(N) to win ~ 24-19
Over/Under Pick: Under

Chicago @ Dallas(-3.5)  (o/u 41.5)
Savant Spread PickDallas and the points to win ~ 26-20
Over/Under Pick: Over

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