When Robert Griffin III became a Heisman trophy winner at Baylor, a
numerically proven hype machine in the NFL scouting combine, and a 2nd
overall draft selection by the Redskins in 2012, he came into training
camp and the preseason as a cautiously optimistic commodity in the eyes
of fantasy football team owners. Being drafted in the seventh to ninth
round in most fantasy football drafts, team owners put the kind of stock
in RGIII you might put into being dealt a Ten-Queen, suited hand in a
poker game; a moderate hand
but with loads of potential.
After the first week, when RGIII shocked us all with his veteran like
poise and sharp accuracy under the full-speed duress of an NFL
pass-rush, the poker game we fantasy football owners play with rising
and falling player stocks got very intriguing in RGIII’s case. As if
the Ten-Queen suited hand of cards he was coming into the game with
wasn’t enough marked potential, the ante went up significantly with his
breakout game against New Orleans. We all speculated at least a modest
come back to earth for RGIII against a St. Louis Rams team that had just
intercepted star quarterback, Matthew Stafford, three times in a tight
loss on the road and they were going to be
hosting against Washington.
RGIII responded to the Week 2 road matchup versus the Rams like a
vetted pro. He finished with a crisp 69% passing on 29 attempts for
over 200 yards and a respectable 1 TD and 1 INT passing the ball. It
was his two huge rushing TD’s and 82 rushing yards though, that
propelled him to the second most fantasy points in the league at any
position for Week 2, a hair behind Reggie Bush’s 197 total yard, 2 TD
performance for Miami.
And with that impressive showing in Week 2, the RGIII poker hand that
started as a Ten-Queen, suited, just saw another Queen off-suited, and a
King-Jack of matching suit strike on the flop.
In other words, he has shown that he is our fantasy football
equivalent to being about as safe a bet as playing a poker hand with a
pair of Queens, a hand very often won within a poker game, but with his
Week 2 success versus the Rams he’s left us with a matching suited
King-Jack, to potentially become the most unbeatable hand in poker and
fantasy football, the ‘Royal Flush’.
The ‘Royal Flush’ is that fantasy player that scores in the Top 3 in
total fantasy points almost every week and propels even an average
fantasy team into a championship hopeful. Last year, it was Aaron
Rodgers as the league’s ‘Royal Flush’ with Cam Newton and Arian Foster
closely considered if Foster hadn’t missed games and Newton hadn’t had
his come back to earth from the fantasy stratosphere over the second
half in 2011. It’s been guys who never give you a bad week and always
give you a chance to win even if you don’t get good stats from your
other starters. The ‘Royal Flush’ is an ultimate fantasy game-changer; a
weekly statistical powerhouse.
There are a number of reasons one could speculate why RGIII will
become the ‘Royal Flush’ of fantasy football in 2012. Many of those
reasons you know: He has a rocket arm, pinpoint accuracy, a keen
awareness in the pocket, a 4.41 – 40 yard dash and an astute football
IQ. He’s everything you want in a young, perennial superstar
quarterback. It’s a player’s environment that can often dictate his
fantasy ceiling, but when you look at the scenarios revolving around
RGIII, it appears everything could be in place for the sky to be the
limit for his future fantasy value in 2012.
————–
Mike Shanahan, QB Extraordinaire – We tend
to forget that the Head Coach of the Washington Redskins is one of the
all-time great QB gurus in NFL history. Once upon a time, before many
of us remember, Shanahan was making a living as an assistant coach for
the 49ers, winning Super Bowl XXIX as the 49ers Offensive Coordinator
with QB Steve Young and later becoming a Head Coach for the Broncos and
winning back-to-back Super Bowls(XXII, XXIII) with QB John Elway. This
guy knows how to produce elite QB’s and it will advance RGIII’s progress
three-fold more than if he had been drafted to a team with a defensive
minded HC. Shanahan is a major reason why you are seeing such an
immediately polished QB product in RGIII.
Shanahan’s West Coast Offense – Mike
Shanahan has been running the West Coast Offense since 1992, working as
an assistant to its creator, Bill Walsh. The system is predicated on
using timing and high-percentage short yard passing plays that work as
“extended handoffs”. It’s this offense that produced RGIII’s clean, 69%
completion rate in Week 2 versus one of the top DB’s in Cortland
Finnegan and the Rams. These high-percentage passes result in more easy
yards and big run-after-catch potential. RGIII’s first TD pass that
went for 80 yards to Pierre Garcon was a five-step drop, ten-yard in,
with perfect timing; a staple of the West Coast Offense. The even
scarier part for RGIII’s fantasy value is that Shanahan has modified his
West Coast playbook with some designed runs for RGIII straight out of
his Baylor playbook from college, making him a dual passing and rushing
TD threat like Cam Newton was a year ago.
The Emergence of Alfred Morris, Depth at RB
– If fantasy players know anything about Mike Shanahan, they know not
to trust running backs in his system for fantasy points because he has
been historically a believer in a RB by committee since coaching in
Washington, which is a direct contrast of his rushing philosophy with
Denver, where he always had a work-horse back(Terrell Davis, Clinton
Portis, Mike Anderson, etc…). No one knew who would emerge as the lead
back in his offense even going into the kickoff of the first game this
year, but we quickly learned that Alfred Morris, the biggest bruiser
back they have will get a bulk of the load(for now). He has done a fine
job being the team’s horse through two weeks and that will keep
defenses honest against RGIII’s passing game. What’s additionally nice
about having a stable of good running backs, like the Redskins do with
Evan Royster and Roy Helu in the mix with Morris, you never have to fear
that RGIII’s fantasy stock will die with the injury of the team’s lead
running back. If Alfred Morris were to go down, there is little to no
drop off in talent behind him, especially in Mike Shanahan’s fabled zone
blocking scheme that turns late-round talents into thousand yard
rushers.
Pedestrian Redskins Defense, High Scoring Affairs
– The Redskins return a defense that gave up the 12th most points in
the NFL(22.9ppg) last year and they have looked even worse this season
giving up 31.5ppg in their first two games of 2012. This defense is
going to put the Redskins in a lot of holes and potentially a couple of
blowouts that will require more than 40 or 50 pass attempts from RGIII
just to keep them in contention. His value will rise on sheer volume in
these games and he can pick up loads of yards in “garbage time” when
the opposing team’s defense is more interested in burning clock than
stopping yardage when up big in the 4th quarter.
————–
So here lies RGIII’s current stock, today, as a hand at poker: A
Ten-Queen suited, dealt, another Queen off-suited, and King-Jack of
matching suit, on the table after Week 2. The stakes are high awaiting
that 4th turn card which will reveal itself after this weekend’s matchup
at home versus the Cincinnati Bengals. With an explosive fantasy
performance, which he will be more than capable of against a Bengal
defense that has allowed 308.5 passing yards per game(29th in NFL) and
35.5ppg(28th in NFL) thus far, that 4th turn card could very easily
produce a 3rd Queen, a very difficult hand to beat, lifting him into the
projected top 5 QB tier. With more strong performances in the games
thereafter, he
could just land that Ace, suited, on the river,
to complete the RGIII Royal Flush and carry your fantasy football team
to a title to go with it.
His ‘Royal’ potential and minimal fantasy floor going forward, based
on the consistency he’s already achieved in his first two starts, makes
him the ultimate trade wire deal right now. If you can get him for a
mid-tier RB2 or mid WR1 talent and you don’t have an elite passer, don’t
wait! I’m buying in and I’m buying in now while his stock is at this
point because it will never be as low as it is now the rest of the 2012
season.
If you have an elite passer like a Drew Brees, Matthew Stafford, Tom
Brady, or Aaron Rodgers as your starter and RGIII on your bench, look at
getting an elite player deal in exchange for your elite QB. Make the
blockbuster deal for a player in an area where you’ve sustained narrowed
depth due to injury or is just a real problem area on your team. Turn
those points on your bench into points you can use at other areas of
your starting lineup.
It’ll be beneficial to your team if you look into a multi-player deal
for Calvin Johnson or Arian Foster in exchange for your elite QB.
Anything you can work out to acquire an elite player, at another
position, in the area your team needs the biggest boost will upgrade
your team and give room for RGIII to lead the way. If you can’t get the
deal you’re looking for now, move your elite QB in favor of RGIII when
someone in your league gets desperate because of an injury at QB or is
panicked over a losing streak. You’ll upgrade your team’s point
production significantly with RGIII and Johnson or Foster in your lineup
rather than Brees and a mid-tier WR1 with RGIII exploding for points on
your bench.
Of course, you can always wait him out and trade RGIII when his stock
gets even higher, but if you’re going to deal him now, make sure the
players you are getting in return appropriately display your trade
partner’s shared enthusiasm for his value. If you don’t have RGIII, you
need to at least look into acquiring him. If you have an elite passer
ahead of him on your depth chart, look into making a bold trade move to
make space for him to be your starter. Either way, you won’t regret
making the move to RGIII. He’s got ‘Royal Flush’ potential and my chips
are all-in on his hand.
