NFL 2014: The Sports Savant's AFC EAST Preview

Welcome back to The Sports Savant's Sports Blog!  Today, I'm writing the first of my NFL divisional previews in an eight part series covering the four divisions of the AFC and NFC with predictions on records and final standings of the teams in each division.  Up first is the AFC EAST...

The AFC EAST is a division that has been dominated by a single team for the better part of a decade, but this year, the division looks as wide open as it has looked in a long time.  The team that has dominated is, of course, the New England Patriots.  They've won the AFC EAST an astronomical 13 times in the last 15 seasons with exception to the 2002 New York Jets and 2008 Miami Dolphins, respectively.  It's been nothing short of a stranglehold by the Patriots, on the AFC EAST, usually winning the division by multiple games each year.  But in a year that sees the skills of the AFC EAST's leading QB, Tom Brady, diminishing and a cast of young, inexperienced skill players on offense, the division is looking winnable for other AFC EAST teams hungry for a long overdue division title.  Will the Patriots win the division again or will a new AFC EAST team taking the title?


New York Jets

In Rex Ryan's 6th season as the New York Jets' head coach, he has more to prove than ever before.  Coming off of last year's 8-8 season and a combined 22-26 record over the last three years, this is a make or break year for the coach.  Rex Ryan teams are usually lauded for their defense, but the 19th ranked defense from last year could not do enough to overcome the Jets' 29th ranked offense in 2013.

This year, the Jets added a couple of potentially key contributors to their offense, signing free agent WR Eric Decker from the Denver Broncos and the unceremoniously departed RB Chris Johnson from the Tennessee Titans.  For the Jets, both of these guys need to prove something to themselves and the league.  Decker has yet to prove he can be a #1 WR in a below average offense and show that he is not just good when he has Peyton Manning throwing him the ball with one of the league's most dangerous WR threats on the other side of him(Demaryius Thomas).  Chris Johnson is coming off of his worst season of his career and lowest yards per carry average in 2013 with the Titans, not far removed from his 2,006 rushing yard season of a few years ago.

The biggest question mark for this team will be at the QB position where embattled veteran, Michael Vick, who was signed as a free agent this off-season, will compete with second year QB, Geno Smith, for the starting position.  The thought is that Geno will be the starter since he showed some signs of being a quality NFL starter last year and he clearly would be the future of the Jets organization whereas Vick is in the twilight of his career but would serve as one of the most dynamic backup QB's in the league.  This could change by Week 1, but I don't see the team too differently despite who is starting at QB.

What worries me about this team most is that their very average defense last year only got worse with the departure of top-notch CB Antonio Cromartie and they didn't bring in any difference makers in free agency to help that 19th ranked D from last season.  So far, young CB, Dee Milliner, has not lived up to his highly touted talent coming into the league last year as a 1st round pick.  If this defense is going to be better next year, they are going to need Milliner to become the All-Pro NFL talent he is supposed to become very quickly.  I otherwise don't see a much better outcome for the Jets in 2014 on defense.

It's hard to have any faith that this team can make a big turnaround in 2014 with their roster as it is currently constructed.  I imagine they will continue to take their lumps while Geno learns on the job and that average defense will continue to be mediocre.  This very well may lead to the firing of Rex Ryan, which I see as a real possibility when this team finishes dead last in the AFC EAST.

Savant Record Prediction: (6-10, 4th place)


Buffalo Bills

Second year head coach, Doug Marrone and the Buffalo Bills come into the 2014 season from last year's 4th place finish in the AFC EAST last season.  A team that had didn't have high expectations last year, the Bills never did quite get off of the ground because of inconsistent play from rookie QB E.J. Manuel and a flurry of injuries between both of their pro-bowl level RB, C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson.  Though finishing last in their division last year, their were positives to take from the season, including the development of Manuel.

What Manuel lacked last season was a discernible threat at the WR position, but the Bills took care of that need in this year's draft with their 1st round pick, WR phenom Sammy Watkins from Clemson.  Watkins has already shown flashes of his brilliance at the position in training camp and preseason.  His addition should open things up a bit more for Manuel and the Bills offense.  If the Watkins effect works as planned and if even one of the two star RB, Spiller and Jackson, can stay healthy all season, this could be a pretty good offense.  Much better than the one we saw in 2013.

The defense took a critical hit in their secondary losing Pro-Bowl SS Jairus Byrd to a free agent deal with the New Orleans Saints and losing their 2013 leading tackler, LB Kiko Alonso, for the 2014 season after suffering an off-season knee injury.  Byrd and Alonso were the two most critical parts of their 10th ranked defense last season with their exceptional combined tackling and coverage skills keeping teams bottled up underneath.  These are two players that cannot be replaced easily and it will be a task filling those shoes for this defense.  They, of course, have the services arguably the best DE in the game in Mario Williams, but other than him this team is sparse on defensive talent.

Overall, I see this team making an improvement from last year's 6-10 mark but with Manuel still learning on the job, Watkins adjusting to playing in the NFL in his rookie season, the potential for injury to their running backs and the defense looking much worse on paper than it did last season, I'm only giving Buffalo one additional win over last season.  This team is too young on offense and doesn't have enough play-makers on defense to take a big step toward the playoffs.

Savant Record Prediction: (7-9, 3rd place)


Miami Dolphins

The Miami Dolphins are a team of close calls in the last few years.  Each year for the last several seasons they have been just a play or two away from winning a couple of additional games and then consequently end up just a game or two away from making the playoffs.  Since 2008, when the Dolphins last won the AFC EAST division in an 11 win season, they have combined to win 35 games to 45 losses never winning more than 8 games and never losing less than 7 games in the 5 year span.  The consistency with which this team finishes with 7 to 8 wins shows how long they've been on the verge of a playoff berth with most #6 seed AFC Wild Card Playoff teams finishing with 9 to10 win season. Will the Dolphins be able to get over the playoff hump?

The Dolphins come into the 2014 NFL season lead by second year head coach, Joe Philbin, and 3rd year starting QB Ryan Tannehill who's looking to make that leap from average NFL starter to consistent quality starting QB.  Tannehill showed flashes of being just that but a porous offensive line and limited overall skill at the WR and RB positions made it difficult for a QB of his young pedigree in 2013.  The O-line was typically not able to create enough pocket time for Tannehill to hit the Dolphin's new(and expensive) free agent WR pickup, the speedy Mike Wallace, and was not threatened in the run game by any discernibly fast or powerful RB leaving defenses free to constantly drop 7 defenders into coverage, a defensive scheme difficult to pass on with the extra defenders not rushing the passer or committing to the run.  One of Miami's biggest challenges this year will be creating more time to throw the ball vertical to their big play threat at WR and make defenses respect their run game to make defenses commit more players to the run.

What did the Dolphins do to improve these weaknesses?  They went out and signed one of the most prolific offensive tackles in the NFL right now in Branden Albert who was a former 15th overall pick of the Kansas City Chiefs in 2008.  He will be a welcome upgrade over the controversially departed Jonathan Martin and should do wonders to protect the all important "blind side" for the Dolphin's QB.  To help out the running game, they brought in veteran RB Knowshon Moreno from the Denver Broncos who rushed for over 1,000 yards and 10 rushing TD's in the Broncos pass-heavy offense.  The Dolphins didn't add any new splash player on defense, but expect them to come back this year with a similarly stout defense, returning most of the players that made them the 8th best defense in the NFL.

Between that solid defense and the improvement made on the offensive line, I see the Dolphins and Tannehill taking a step forward and improving on their 2013 campaign, but I don't see positive things for the running game featuring an underacheiving Lamar Miller and the aging Moreno who know longer get's to face defenses in fear of Peyton Manning's colossal 340 passing YPG average.  Add the fact that Moreno had a scope surgery on his one healthy knee and a repeat of his success from last year looks unlikely leaving the Dolphins exposed on the ground.  I see a potential playoff run for the Dolphins in 2014 but not a division title.  Look for them to potentially secure a 5 or 6 seed in the AFC this year.

Savant Record Prediction: (9-7, 2nd place)


New England Patriots

Coming off of his worst season since his rookie campaign, Tom Brady is looking to bounce back from what was a very average year by most QB standards.  Despite the down numbers for Brady, head coach Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots found a way to win the division once again for a 5th consecutive season.  No one knows how to make the most out of a roster lacking talent than the Patriots coaching staff.  Just when everyone thought the Patriots were vulnerable to losing the AFC EAST crown after a season-ending knee injury to their biggest offensive weapon, TE Rob Gronkowski, they pulled it together and rode the remaining roster to an overachieving 12-4 record.

Though not a team with any major strengths outside of having Tom Brady's veteran leadership, the potential for another big year from Gronk and a great head coach, they are also a team without any glaring weaknesses on defense.  The weakest point on this entire roster is their noticeable lack of depth at the WR position.  WR Danny Amendola has proven he can be a quality slot receiver in the NFL but his propencity for being out of the lineup long periods of time is alarming.  They like the prospects of 2nd year WR Kenbrell Thompkins and how he can mature into a quality WR but it's clear that Thompkins can never reach the explosive playmaking ability found amongst the NFL's elite wideouts.  It will be a challenge again this year for Brady to put many throws outside the numbers which shrinks the field and makes it harder to complete passes.

The running back attack remains a running-back-by-committee scenario with their two good backs, Shane Vereen and Brian Bolden, but the loss of their power back, LeGarrette Blount, will have an impact on the running game.  Vereen and Bolden excel running to the outside and in the passing game, but none of the Patriots backs are designed to churn out the tough yards near the goal line or on 3rd and short.  Their offense will take a step back this year as a result of an inability to pick up short yardage on the ground.

An upside for this team was the signing of defensive backs CB Darelle Revis and SS Brandon Browner.  Revis' was once touted as the best shutdown corner in the game but has not been the same since a torn ACL a couple of years back.  He is still a quality CB and will help the defense.  Browner is a hard hitting safety that brought his talents from the Seattle Seahawks this off-season. Both will give the defense a boost in defending the pass, which the Patriots struggled with at times in 2013.

Even with the signing of Browner and Revis to help the defense, I see the 2014 Patriots taking a step back this year from their 12-4 clip in 2013.  Though I believe they will be an inferior team to the 2013 version, it won't be enough for them to back out of the AFC EAST division title once again.  The Patriots may be down this year, but with the other teams in this division having young QB's still learning on the job and the Patriots having their Super Bowl winning captain leading the ship, they should be able to do enough to reach 10 wins and be your 2014 AFC EAST champions.

Savant Record Prediction: (10-6, 1st place)

The Sports Savant is Back!

Hello sports fans and welcome to The Sports Savant's Sports Blog!  In case you forgot or this is your first time visiting my blog, I'm Forrest Doran, a professional writer and sports guru who has a passion for NFL and NCAA football.  It has been nearly a year since I have created a new blog entry here and I apologize for disappearing on my readership last football season. Last NFL season, an unexpected set of circumstances that took priority over this blog left me no choice but to take a year hiatus and regroup.  Now I'm back and proud to announce that the Sports Savant's Sports Blog will be fully operating this NFL season and you can expect more of the same great NFL game predictions that made me the most accurate prognosticator of NFL outcomes on the entire World Wide Web!  I beat all of ESPN, CBS, FOX, Yahoo, HBO and all experts in 2011 and 2012 in win predictions and I'm ready to outdo them all once again in 2014!

Just as exciting as the return of this blog is to me and the many who relied on my NFL expertise in the two full seasons it operated in 2011 and 2012, I am very pleased to announce that I am reconnecting my partnership with my friends at Last Word On Sports!  I'll be featured on weekly radio spots with them through their online radio station, Last Word Radio, providing analysis, predictions and even fantasy football strategy throughout the 2014 season!(http://lastwordonsports.com/radio/)

Consider this blog post my reintroduction to the public and look for more than just game score and win predictions this year.  I'm planning on taking my blog to the next level with analysis and opinions on players, teams and NFL news. It's great to be back doing what I love and have a special talent for.  Stay tuned to my blog for NFL news stories and predictions starting this week!

Fantasy Analysis: RGIII Could Be Your 'Royal Flush'

When Robert Griffin III became a Heisman trophy winner at Baylor, a numerically proven hype machine in the NFL scouting combine, and a 2nd overall draft selection by the Redskins in 2012, he came into training camp and the preseason as a cautiously optimistic commodity in the eyes of fantasy football team owners.  Being drafted in the seventh to ninth round in most fantasy football drafts, team owners put the kind of stock in RGIII you might put into being dealt a Ten-Queen, suited hand in a poker game; a moderate hand but with loads of potential.

After the first week, when RGIII shocked us all with his veteran like poise and sharp accuracy under the full-speed duress of an NFL pass-rush, the poker game we fantasy football owners play with rising and falling player stocks got very intriguing in RGIII’s case.  As if the Ten-Queen suited hand of cards he was coming into the game with wasn’t enough marked potential, the ante went up significantly with his breakout game against New Orleans.  We all speculated at least a modest come back to earth for RGIII against a St. Louis Rams team that had just intercepted star quarterback, Matthew Stafford, three times in a tight loss on the road and they were going to be hosting against Washington.

RGIII responded to the Week 2 road matchup versus the Rams like a vetted pro.  He finished with a crisp 69% passing on 29 attempts for over 200 yards and a respectable 1 TD and 1 INT passing the ball.  It was his two huge rushing TD’s and 82 rushing yards though, that propelled him to the second most fantasy points in the league at any position for Week 2, a hair behind Reggie Bush’s 197 total yard, 2 TD performance for Miami.

And with that impressive showing in Week 2, the RGIII poker hand that started as a Ten-Queen, suited, just saw another Queen off-suited, and a King-Jack of matching suit strike on the flop.

In other words, he has shown that he is our fantasy football equivalent to being about as safe a bet as playing a poker hand with a pair of Queens, a hand very often won within a poker game, but with his Week 2 success versus the Rams he’s left us with a matching suited King-Jack, to potentially become the most unbeatable hand in poker and fantasy football, the ‘Royal Flush’.

The ‘Royal Flush’ is that fantasy player that scores in the Top 3 in total fantasy points almost every week and propels even an average fantasy team into a championship hopeful.  Last year, it was Aaron Rodgers as the league’s ‘Royal Flush’ with Cam Newton and Arian Foster closely considered if Foster hadn’t missed games and Newton hadn’t had his come back to earth from the fantasy stratosphere over the second half in 2011.  It’s been guys who never give you a bad week and always give you a chance to win even if you don’t get good stats from your other starters.  The ‘Royal Flush’ is an ultimate fantasy game-changer; a weekly statistical powerhouse.

There are a number of reasons one could speculate why RGIII will become the ‘Royal Flush’ of fantasy football in 2012.  Many of those reasons you know: He has a rocket arm, pinpoint accuracy, a keen awareness in the pocket, a 4.41 – 40 yard dash and an astute football IQ.  He’s everything you want in a young, perennial superstar quarterback.  It’s a player’s environment that can often dictate his fantasy ceiling, but when you look at the scenarios revolving around RGIII, it appears everything could be in place for the sky to be the limit for his future fantasy value in 2012.

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Mike Shanahan, QB Extraordinaire – We tend to forget that the Head Coach of the Washington Redskins is one of the all-time great QB gurus in NFL history.  Once upon a time, before many of us remember, Shanahan was making a living as an assistant coach for the 49ers, winning Super Bowl XXIX as the 49ers Offensive Coordinator with QB Steve Young and later becoming a Head Coach for the Broncos and winning back-to-back Super Bowls(XXII, XXIII) with QB John Elway.  This guy knows how to produce elite QB’s and it will advance RGIII’s progress three-fold more than if he had been drafted to a team with a defensive minded HC.  Shanahan is a major reason why you are seeing such an immediately polished QB product in RGIII.

Shanahan’s West Coast Offense – Mike Shanahan has been running the West Coast Offense since 1992, working as an assistant to its creator, Bill Walsh.  The system is predicated on using timing and high-percentage short yard passing plays that work as “extended handoffs”.  It’s this offense that produced RGIII’s clean, 69% completion rate in Week 2 versus one of the top DB’s in Cortland Finnegan and the Rams.  These high-percentage passes result in more easy yards and big run-after-catch potential.  RGIII’s first TD pass that went for 80 yards to Pierre Garcon was a five-step drop, ten-yard in, with perfect timing; a staple of the West Coast Offense.  The even scarier part for RGIII’s fantasy value is that Shanahan has modified his West Coast playbook with some designed runs for RGIII straight out of his Baylor playbook from college, making him a dual passing and rushing TD threat like Cam Newton was a year ago.

The Emergence of Alfred Morris, Depth at RB – If fantasy players know anything about Mike Shanahan, they know not to trust running backs in his system for fantasy points because he has been historically a believer in a RB by committee since coaching in Washington, which is a direct contrast of his rushing philosophy with Denver, where he always had a work-horse back(Terrell Davis, Clinton Portis, Mike Anderson, etc…).  No one knew who would emerge as the lead back in his offense even going into the kickoff of the first game this year, but we quickly learned that Alfred Morris, the biggest bruiser back they have will get a bulk of the load(for now).  He has done a fine job being the team’s horse through two weeks and that will keep defenses honest against RGIII’s passing game.  What’s additionally nice about having a stable of good running backs, like the Redskins do with Evan Royster and Roy Helu in the mix with Morris, you never have to fear that RGIII’s fantasy stock will die with the injury of the team’s lead running back.  If Alfred Morris were to go down, there is little to no drop off in talent behind him, especially in Mike Shanahan’s fabled zone blocking scheme that turns late-round talents into thousand yard rushers.

Pedestrian Redskins Defense, High Scoring Affairs – The Redskins return a defense that gave up the 12th most points in the NFL(22.9ppg) last year and they have looked even worse this season giving up 31.5ppg in their first two games of 2012.  This defense is going to put the Redskins in a lot of holes and potentially a couple of blowouts that will require more than 40 or 50 pass attempts from RGIII just to keep them in contention.  His value will rise on sheer volume in these games and he can pick up loads of yards in “garbage time” when the opposing team’s defense is more interested in burning clock than stopping yardage when up big in the 4th quarter.

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So here lies RGIII’s current stock, today, as a hand at poker:  A Ten-Queen suited, dealt, another Queen off-suited, and King-Jack of matching suit, on the table after Week 2.  The stakes are high awaiting that 4th turn card which will reveal itself after this weekend’s matchup at home versus the Cincinnati Bengals.  With an explosive fantasy performance, which he will be more than capable of against a Bengal defense that has allowed 308.5 passing yards per game(29th in NFL) and 35.5ppg(28th in NFL) thus far, that 4th turn card could very easily produce a 3rd Queen, a very difficult hand to beat, lifting him into the projected top 5 QB tier.  With more strong performances in the games thereafter, he could just land that Ace, suited, on the river, to complete the RGIII Royal Flush and carry your fantasy football team to a title to go with it.

His ‘Royal’ potential and minimal fantasy floor going forward, based on the consistency he’s already achieved in his first two starts, makes him the ultimate trade wire deal right now.  If you can get him for a mid-tier RB2 or mid WR1 talent and you don’t have an elite passer, don’t wait!  I’m buying in and I’m buying in now while his stock is at this point because it will never be as low as it is now the rest of the 2012 season.

If you have an elite passer like a Drew Brees, Matthew Stafford, Tom Brady, or Aaron Rodgers as your starter and RGIII on your bench, look at getting an elite player deal in exchange for your elite QB.  Make the blockbuster deal for a player in an area where you’ve sustained narrowed depth due to injury or is just a real problem area on your team.  Turn those points on your bench into points you can use at other areas of your starting lineup.

It’ll be beneficial to your team if you look into a multi-player deal for Calvin Johnson or Arian Foster in exchange for your elite QB.  Anything you can work out to acquire an elite player, at another position, in the area your team needs the biggest boost will upgrade your team and give room for RGIII to lead the way.  If you can’t get the deal you’re looking for now, move your elite QB in favor of RGIII when someone in your league gets desperate because of an injury at QB or is panicked over a losing streak.  You’ll upgrade your team’s point production significantly with RGIII and Johnson or Foster in your lineup rather than Brees and a mid-tier WR1 with RGIII exploding for points on your bench.

Of course, you can always wait him out and trade RGIII when his stock gets even higher, but if you’re going to deal him now, make sure the players you are getting in return appropriately display your trade partner’s shared enthusiasm for his value.  If you don’t have RGIII, you need to at least look into acquiring him.  If you have an elite passer ahead of him on your depth chart, look into making a bold trade move to make space for him to be your starter.  Either way, you won’t regret making the move to RGIII.  He’s got ‘Royal Flush’ potential and my chips are all-in on his hand.