Welcome back to The Sports Savant's Sports Blog! Today, I'm writing the first of my NFL divisional previews in an eight part series covering the four divisions of the AFC and NFC with predictions on records and final standings of the teams in each division. Up first is the AFC EAST...
The AFC EAST is a division that has been dominated by a single team for the better part of a decade, but this year, the division looks as wide open as it has looked in a long time. The team that has dominated is, of course, the New England Patriots. They've won the AFC EAST an astronomical 13 times in the last 15 seasons with exception to the 2002 New York Jets and 2008 Miami Dolphins, respectively. It's been nothing short of a stranglehold by the Patriots, on the AFC EAST, usually winning the division by multiple games each year. But in a year that sees the skills of the AFC EAST's leading QB, Tom Brady, diminishing and a cast of young, inexperienced skill players on offense, the division is looking winnable for other AFC EAST teams hungry for a long overdue division title. Will the Patriots win the division again or will a new AFC EAST team taking the title?
New York Jets
In Rex Ryan's 6th season as the New York Jets' head coach, he has more to prove than ever before. Coming off of last year's 8-8 season and a combined 22-26 record over the last three years, this is a make or break year for the coach. Rex Ryan teams are usually lauded for their defense, but the 19th ranked defense from last year could not do enough to overcome the Jets' 29th ranked offense in 2013.
This year, the Jets added a couple of potentially key contributors to their offense, signing free agent WR Eric Decker from the Denver Broncos and the unceremoniously departed RB Chris Johnson from the Tennessee Titans. For the Jets, both of these guys need to prove something to themselves and the league. Decker has yet to prove he can be a #1 WR in a below average offense and show that he is not just good when he has Peyton Manning throwing him the ball with one of the league's most dangerous WR threats on the other side of him(Demaryius Thomas). Chris Johnson is coming off of his worst season of his career and lowest yards per carry average in 2013 with the Titans, not far removed from his 2,006 rushing yard season of a few years ago.
The biggest question mark for this team will be at the QB position where embattled veteran, Michael Vick, who was signed as a free agent this off-season, will compete with second year QB, Geno Smith, for the starting position. The thought is that Geno will be the starter since he showed some signs of being a quality NFL starter last year and he clearly would be the future of the Jets organization whereas Vick is in the twilight of his career but would serve as one of the most dynamic backup QB's in the league. This could change by Week 1, but I don't see the team too differently despite who is starting at QB.
What worries me about this team most is that their very average defense last year only got worse with the departure of top-notch CB Antonio Cromartie and they didn't bring in any difference makers in free agency to help that 19th ranked D from last season. So far, young CB, Dee Milliner, has not lived up to his highly touted talent coming into the league last year as a 1st round pick. If this defense is going to be better next year, they are going to need Milliner to become the All-Pro NFL talent he is supposed to become very quickly. I otherwise don't see a much better outcome for the Jets in 2014 on defense.
It's hard to have any faith that this team can make a big turnaround in 2014 with their roster as it is currently constructed. I imagine they will continue to take their lumps while Geno learns on the job and that average defense will continue to be mediocre. This very well may lead to the firing of Rex Ryan, which I see as a real possibility when this team finishes dead last in the AFC EAST.
Savant Record Prediction: (6-10, 4th place)
Buffalo Bills
Second year head coach, Doug Marrone and the Buffalo Bills come into the 2014 season from last year's 4th place finish in the AFC EAST last season. A team that had didn't have high expectations last year, the Bills never did quite get off of the ground because of inconsistent play from rookie QB E.J. Manuel and a flurry of injuries between both of their pro-bowl level RB, C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson. Though finishing last in their division last year, their were positives to take from the season, including the development of Manuel.
What Manuel lacked last season was a discernible threat at the WR position, but the Bills took care of that need in this year's draft with their 1st round pick, WR phenom Sammy Watkins from Clemson. Watkins has already shown flashes of his brilliance at the position in training camp and preseason. His addition should open things up a bit more for Manuel and the Bills offense. If the Watkins effect works as planned and if even one of the two star RB, Spiller and Jackson, can stay healthy all season, this could be a pretty good offense. Much better than the one we saw in 2013.
The defense took a critical hit in their secondary losing Pro-Bowl SS Jairus Byrd to a free agent deal with the New Orleans Saints and losing their 2013 leading tackler, LB Kiko Alonso, for the 2014 season after suffering an off-season knee injury. Byrd and Alonso were the two most critical parts of their 10th ranked defense last season with their exceptional combined tackling and coverage skills keeping teams bottled up underneath. These are two players that cannot be replaced easily and it will be a task filling those shoes for this defense. They, of course, have the services arguably the best DE in the game in Mario Williams, but other than him this team is sparse on defensive talent.
Overall, I see this team making an improvement from last year's 6-10 mark but with Manuel still learning on the job, Watkins adjusting to playing in the NFL in his rookie season, the potential for injury to their running backs and the defense looking much worse on paper than it did last season, I'm only giving Buffalo one additional win over last season. This team is too young on offense and doesn't have enough play-makers on defense to take a big step toward the playoffs.
Savant Record Prediction: (7-9, 3rd place)
Miami Dolphins
The Miami Dolphins are a team of close calls in the last few years. Each year for the last several seasons they have been just a play or two away from winning a couple of additional games and then consequently end up just a game or two away from making the playoffs. Since 2008, when the Dolphins last won the AFC EAST division in an 11 win season, they have combined to win 35 games to 45 losses never winning more than 8 games and never losing less than 7 games in the 5 year span. The consistency with which this team finishes with 7 to 8 wins shows how long they've been on the verge of a playoff berth with most #6 seed AFC Wild Card Playoff teams finishing with 9 to10 win season. Will the Dolphins be able to get over the playoff hump?
The Dolphins come into the 2014 NFL season lead by second year head coach, Joe Philbin, and 3rd year starting QB Ryan Tannehill who's looking to make that leap from average NFL starter to consistent quality starting QB. Tannehill showed flashes of being just that but a porous offensive line and limited overall skill at the WR and RB positions made it difficult for a QB of his young pedigree in 2013. The O-line was typically not able to create enough pocket time for Tannehill to hit the Dolphin's new(and expensive) free agent WR pickup, the speedy Mike Wallace, and was not threatened in the run game by any discernibly fast or powerful RB leaving defenses free to constantly drop 7 defenders into coverage, a defensive scheme difficult to pass on with the extra defenders not rushing the passer or committing to the run. One of Miami's biggest challenges this year will be creating more time to throw the ball vertical to their big play threat at WR and make defenses respect their run game to make defenses commit more players to the run.
What did the Dolphins do to improve these weaknesses? They went out and signed one of the most prolific offensive tackles in the NFL right now in Branden Albert who was a former 15th overall pick of the Kansas City Chiefs in 2008. He will be a welcome upgrade over the controversially departed Jonathan Martin and should do wonders to protect the all important "blind side" for the Dolphin's QB. To help out the running game, they brought in veteran RB Knowshon Moreno from the Denver Broncos who rushed for over 1,000 yards and 10 rushing TD's in the Broncos pass-heavy offense. The Dolphins didn't add any new splash player on defense, but expect them to come back this year with a similarly stout defense, returning most of the players that made them the 8th best defense in the NFL.
Between that solid defense and the improvement made on the offensive line, I see the Dolphins and Tannehill taking a step forward and improving on their 2013 campaign, but I don't see positive things for the running game featuring an underacheiving Lamar Miller and the aging Moreno who know longer get's to face defenses in fear of Peyton Manning's colossal 340 passing YPG average. Add the fact that Moreno had a scope surgery on his one healthy knee and a repeat of his success from last year looks unlikely leaving the Dolphins exposed on the ground. I see a potential playoff run for the Dolphins in 2014 but not a division title. Look for them to potentially secure a 5 or 6 seed in the AFC this year.
Savant Record Prediction: (9-7, 2nd place)
New England Patriots
Coming off of his worst season since his rookie campaign, Tom Brady is looking to bounce back from what was a very average year by most QB standards. Despite the down numbers for Brady, head coach Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots found a way to win the division once again for a 5th consecutive season. No one knows how to make the most out of a roster lacking talent than the Patriots coaching staff. Just when everyone thought the Patriots were vulnerable to losing the AFC EAST crown after a season-ending knee injury to their biggest offensive weapon, TE Rob Gronkowski, they pulled it together and rode the remaining roster to an overachieving 12-4 record.
Though not a team with any major strengths outside of having Tom Brady's veteran leadership, the potential for another big year from Gronk and a great head coach, they are also a team without any glaring weaknesses on defense. The weakest point on this entire roster is their noticeable lack of depth at the WR position. WR Danny Amendola has proven he can be a quality slot receiver in the NFL but his propencity for being out of the lineup long periods of time is alarming. They like the prospects of 2nd year WR Kenbrell Thompkins and how he can mature into a quality WR but it's clear that Thompkins can never reach the explosive playmaking ability found amongst the NFL's elite wideouts. It will be a challenge again this year for Brady to put many throws outside the numbers which shrinks the field and makes it harder to complete passes.
The running back attack remains a running-back-by-committee scenario with their two good backs, Shane Vereen and Brian Bolden, but the loss of their power back, LeGarrette Blount, will have an impact on the running game. Vereen and Bolden excel running to the outside and in the passing game, but none of the Patriots backs are designed to churn out the tough yards near the goal line or on 3rd and short. Their offense will take a step back this year as a result of an inability to pick up short yardage on the ground.
An upside for this team was the signing of defensive backs CB Darelle Revis and SS Brandon Browner. Revis' was once touted as the best shutdown corner in the game but has not been the same since a torn ACL a couple of years back. He is still a quality CB and will help the defense. Browner is a hard hitting safety that brought his talents from the Seattle Seahawks this off-season. Both will give the defense a boost in defending the pass, which the Patriots struggled with at times in 2013.
Even with the signing of Browner and Revis to help the defense, I see the 2014 Patriots taking a step back this year from their 12-4 clip in 2013. Though I believe they will be an inferior team to the 2013 version, it won't be enough for them to back out of the AFC EAST division title once again. The Patriots may be down this year, but with the other teams in this division having young QB's still learning on the job and the Patriots having their Super Bowl winning captain leading the ship, they should be able to do enough to reach 10 wins and be your 2014 AFC EAST champions.
Savant Record Prediction: (10-6, 1st place)
Showing posts with label Football. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Football. Show all posts
Saturday, August 23, 2014
Friday, September 21, 2012
Fantasy Analysis: RGIII Could Be Your 'Royal Flush'
When Robert Griffin III became a Heisman trophy winner at Baylor, a numerically proven hype machine in the NFL scouting combine, and a 2nd overall draft selection by the Redskins in 2012, he came into training camp and the preseason as a cautiously optimistic commodity in the eyes of fantasy football team owners. Being drafted in the seventh to ninth round in most fantasy football drafts, team owners put the kind of stock in RGIII you might put into being dealt a Ten-Queen, suited hand in a poker game; a moderate hand but with loads of potential.
After the first week, when RGIII shocked us all with his veteran like poise and sharp accuracy under the full-speed duress of an NFL pass-rush, the poker game we fantasy football owners play with rising and falling player stocks got very intriguing in RGIII’s case. As if the Ten-Queen suited hand of cards he was coming into the game with wasn’t enough marked potential, the ante went up significantly with his breakout game against New Orleans. We all speculated at least a modest come back to earth for RGIII against a St. Louis Rams team that had just intercepted star quarterback, Matthew Stafford, three times in a tight loss on the road and they were going to be hosting against Washington.
RGIII responded to the Week 2 road matchup versus the Rams like a vetted pro. He finished with a crisp 69% passing on 29 attempts for over 200 yards and a respectable 1 TD and 1 INT passing the ball. It was his two huge rushing TD’s and 82 rushing yards though, that propelled him to the second most fantasy points in the league at any position for Week 2, a hair behind Reggie Bush’s 197 total yard, 2 TD performance for Miami.
And with that impressive showing in Week 2, the RGIII poker hand that started as a Ten-Queen, suited, just saw another Queen off-suited, and a King-Jack of matching suit strike on the flop.
In other words, he has shown that he is our fantasy football equivalent to being about as safe a bet as playing a poker hand with a pair of Queens, a hand very often won within a poker game, but with his Week 2 success versus the Rams he’s left us with a matching suited King-Jack, to potentially become the most unbeatable hand in poker and fantasy football, the ‘Royal Flush’.
The ‘Royal Flush’ is that fantasy player that scores in the Top 3 in total fantasy points almost every week and propels even an average fantasy team into a championship hopeful. Last year, it was Aaron Rodgers as the league’s ‘Royal Flush’ with Cam Newton and Arian Foster closely considered if Foster hadn’t missed games and Newton hadn’t had his come back to earth from the fantasy stratosphere over the second half in 2011. It’s been guys who never give you a bad week and always give you a chance to win even if you don’t get good stats from your other starters. The ‘Royal Flush’ is an ultimate fantasy game-changer; a weekly statistical powerhouse.
There are a number of reasons one could speculate why RGIII will become the ‘Royal Flush’ of fantasy football in 2012. Many of those reasons you know: He has a rocket arm, pinpoint accuracy, a keen awareness in the pocket, a 4.41 – 40 yard dash and an astute football IQ. He’s everything you want in a young, perennial superstar quarterback. It’s a player’s environment that can often dictate his fantasy ceiling, but when you look at the scenarios revolving around RGIII, it appears everything could be in place for the sky to be the limit for his future fantasy value in 2012.
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Mike Shanahan, QB Extraordinaire – We tend to forget that the Head Coach of the Washington Redskins is one of the all-time great QB gurus in NFL history. Once upon a time, before many of us remember, Shanahan was making a living as an assistant coach for the 49ers, winning Super Bowl XXIX as the 49ers Offensive Coordinator with QB Steve Young and later becoming a Head Coach for the Broncos and winning back-to-back Super Bowls(XXII, XXIII) with QB John Elway. This guy knows how to produce elite QB’s and it will advance RGIII’s progress three-fold more than if he had been drafted to a team with a defensive minded HC. Shanahan is a major reason why you are seeing such an immediately polished QB product in RGIII.
Shanahan’s West Coast Offense – Mike Shanahan has been running the West Coast Offense since 1992, working as an assistant to its creator, Bill Walsh. The system is predicated on using timing and high-percentage short yard passing plays that work as “extended handoffs”. It’s this offense that produced RGIII’s clean, 69% completion rate in Week 2 versus one of the top DB’s in Cortland Finnegan and the Rams. These high-percentage passes result in more easy yards and big run-after-catch potential. RGIII’s first TD pass that went for 80 yards to Pierre Garcon was a five-step drop, ten-yard in, with perfect timing; a staple of the West Coast Offense. The even scarier part for RGIII’s fantasy value is that Shanahan has modified his West Coast playbook with some designed runs for RGIII straight out of his Baylor playbook from college, making him a dual passing and rushing TD threat like Cam Newton was a year ago.
The Emergence of Alfred Morris, Depth at RB – If fantasy players know anything about Mike Shanahan, they know not to trust running backs in his system for fantasy points because he has been historically a believer in a RB by committee since coaching in Washington, which is a direct contrast of his rushing philosophy with Denver, where he always had a work-horse back(Terrell Davis, Clinton Portis, Mike Anderson, etc…). No one knew who would emerge as the lead back in his offense even going into the kickoff of the first game this year, but we quickly learned that Alfred Morris, the biggest bruiser back they have will get a bulk of the load(for now). He has done a fine job being the team’s horse through two weeks and that will keep defenses honest against RGIII’s passing game. What’s additionally nice about having a stable of good running backs, like the Redskins do with Evan Royster and Roy Helu in the mix with Morris, you never have to fear that RGIII’s fantasy stock will die with the injury of the team’s lead running back. If Alfred Morris were to go down, there is little to no drop off in talent behind him, especially in Mike Shanahan’s fabled zone blocking scheme that turns late-round talents into thousand yard rushers.
Pedestrian Redskins Defense, High Scoring Affairs – The Redskins return a defense that gave up the 12th most points in the NFL(22.9ppg) last year and they have looked even worse this season giving up 31.5ppg in their first two games of 2012. This defense is going to put the Redskins in a lot of holes and potentially a couple of blowouts that will require more than 40 or 50 pass attempts from RGIII just to keep them in contention. His value will rise on sheer volume in these games and he can pick up loads of yards in “garbage time” when the opposing team’s defense is more interested in burning clock than stopping yardage when up big in the 4th quarter.
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So here lies RGIII’s current stock, today, as a hand at poker: A Ten-Queen suited, dealt, another Queen off-suited, and King-Jack of matching suit, on the table after Week 2. The stakes are high awaiting that 4th turn card which will reveal itself after this weekend’s matchup at home versus the Cincinnati Bengals. With an explosive fantasy performance, which he will be more than capable of against a Bengal defense that has allowed 308.5 passing yards per game(29th in NFL) and 35.5ppg(28th in NFL) thus far, that 4th turn card could very easily produce a 3rd Queen, a very difficult hand to beat, lifting him into the projected top 5 QB tier. With more strong performances in the games thereafter, he could just land that Ace, suited, on the river, to complete the RGIII Royal Flush and carry your fantasy football team to a title to go with it.
His ‘Royal’ potential and minimal fantasy floor going forward, based on the consistency he’s already achieved in his first two starts, makes him the ultimate trade wire deal right now. If you can get him for a mid-tier RB2 or mid WR1 talent and you don’t have an elite passer, don’t wait! I’m buying in and I’m buying in now while his stock is at this point because it will never be as low as it is now the rest of the 2012 season.
If you have an elite passer like a Drew Brees, Matthew Stafford, Tom Brady, or Aaron Rodgers as your starter and RGIII on your bench, look at getting an elite player deal in exchange for your elite QB. Make the blockbuster deal for a player in an area where you’ve sustained narrowed depth due to injury or is just a real problem area on your team. Turn those points on your bench into points you can use at other areas of your starting lineup.
It’ll be beneficial to your team if you look into a multi-player deal for Calvin Johnson or Arian Foster in exchange for your elite QB. Anything you can work out to acquire an elite player, at another position, in the area your team needs the biggest boost will upgrade your team and give room for RGIII to lead the way. If you can’t get the deal you’re looking for now, move your elite QB in favor of RGIII when someone in your league gets desperate because of an injury at QB or is panicked over a losing streak. You’ll upgrade your team’s point production significantly with RGIII and Johnson or Foster in your lineup rather than Brees and a mid-tier WR1 with RGIII exploding for points on your bench.
Of course, you can always wait him out and trade RGIII when his stock gets even higher, but if you’re going to deal him now, make sure the players you are getting in return appropriately display your trade partner’s shared enthusiasm for his value. If you don’t have RGIII, you need to at least look into acquiring him. If you have an elite passer ahead of him on your depth chart, look into making a bold trade move to make space for him to be your starter. Either way, you won’t regret making the move to RGIII. He’s got ‘Royal Flush’ potential and my chips are all-in on his hand.
Sunday, September 11, 2011
NFL 2011 - Betting Lines - Who to Pick Versus the Spread: Week 1
I'm not much of a gambler, but I know many of you are! So, this year I will be helping out my friends who like to make wagers versus the spread. Here, I will try provide some insight on how the matchups within the game can work to your advantage when making a wager. Making good picks is all about good information. So, without further adieu, the picks and analysis for wagers versus the spread for the NFL: Week 1...
*WEEK 1 - RESULTS UPDATE*
Winner: 10-6
Winner w/ Spread: 8-8
Over/Under: 7-8-1
Trifecta: 3
Perfect Score Predictions: 3 (Atlanta, St. Louis, Detroit)
Perfect Game Predictions: 1 (Atlanta v. St. Louis)
NOTE: The Green Bay/New Orleans game was played Thursday, September 8th so no pick or analysis will be given, but for the record, I had Green Bay winning by 7 and both teams scoring often so I took the over. Nice start, huh?
NOTE 2: The team with a negative number in parenthesis "(-3)" next to their name is the favorite to win the matchup and the number represents how many points the favorite has to score more than the underdog to count as a winning bet. The over/under for the game is represented by a number in parenthesis with the letters o and u "(o/u 46)". The number represents the amount of points you are wagering whether or not the two team's combined score will be in excess of or short of. Official betting lines courtesy of www.footballlocks.com
Pittsburgh @ Baltimore(-1.5) (o/u 36)
Savant Spread Pick: Pittsburgh to win ~ 16-14
Over/Under Pick: Under
Result: Baltimore 35 Pittsburgh 7 / Total Score 42 /
Winner: - Spread: - O/U: -
This game is always very physical as these teams have a downright hatred for one another. When these teams play, it's lights out collision-making on every play. These teams have hard hitters that hit their hardest when they play each other. Injury is always a high risk in these games because of intensified aggression of the rivalry. Both teams will have mental mistakes as the lockout prevented them from having much time to gel in a truncated off-season. Most of the familiar names of recent years are all still with their teams for this game as neither team did much in free-agency so you can expect a similar result to what has happened in years past in this one. These factors are why I'm taking the under at 36. These games typically end in 13-10 fashion, so under is a safe play.
This early in the season, great defenses usually get the better of good offenses. Because of this, and the Ravens star defensive players being just another year older in the twilight of their careers, the Steelers should win this game by at least a field goal.
Detroit @ Tampa Bay(-1) (o/u 42.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Detroit to win ~ 27-17
Over/Under Pick: Over
Result: Detroit 27 Tampa Bay 20 / Total Score 47 /
Winner: + Spread: + O/U: +
*Trifecta*
I know it's on the road and a long flight to Tampa from Michigan, but the Lions are a team ready to prove people wrong and they have the arsenal to do it. This Lions team is a whole other beast when it has it's signal caller, Matthew Stafford at the helm. This season, Stafford to Calvin Johnson will be one of the leagues best duos and they will score lots of points with their high-octane offense. The Bucs are a team that will take a step back this year. They were not as good as advertised last year. Four of their 10 wins in 2010 came in a sweep of the worst division in football, the NFC West.
Those preposterously large defensive lineman on the Lions(Suh and Fairley) are going to plug up running lanes and TB running back, LeGarrett Blount is an in-between the tackles runner. Lions should neutralize the running game and make the Bucs more one-dimensional. The Bucs will put up a couple of TD's; the Lions will put up even more TD's. This is why I took the Lions and the over. This isn't a close game to me.
Chicago vs. Atlanta(-2) (o/u 40.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Atlanta and the points to win ~ 24-13
Over/Under Pick: Under
Result: Chicago 30 Atlanta 12 / Total Score 42 /
Winner: - Spread: - O/U: -
This appears to be one of the easier picks of the week, as I see it. Atlanta has very real Super Bowl aspirations and the Bears will be lucky to finish third in their division this season. The Bears gave up the most sacks in the NFL last season. Their strange way of remedying this is to cut their only Pro-Bowl offensive lineman(C Olin Kruetz) and signed, nor drafted anyone worthwhile to replace him. So the worst O-line in football only got less talented and less experienced. Not only do you have that problem, but they had one of the worst receiving corps. in the NFL last year and they only signed Cowboy reject, Roy Williams who was cut by Dallas because he was way overpaid, so they are still bad in that area.
This pick isn't even as much about how good the Falcons are, and they will be very good, but more about how disappointing the Bears will be in 2011. Most games the Bears played in last year were very low scoring and I don't think even 28 points by the Falcons will be enough to help the bad Bears offense help the game total eclipse the 41 point mark so I'd say under is a safe bet.
Buffalo @ Kansas City(-5.5) (o/u 39.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Buffalo with the points; Kansas City to win ~ 21-14
Over/Under Pick: Under
Result: Buffalo 41 Kansas City 7 / Total Score 48 /
Winner: - Spread: + O/U: -
It wouldn't be surprising to me if Buffalo went right in to KC and beat them on their home-field, but it's because of that tremendous home-field advantage the Chiefs maintain, I've got them winning by just a field goal, if they win at all. KC QB Matt Cassell sustained a rib injury in the final preseason game a week ago and was questionable for the game so he will be less than 100%. Jamaal Charles will get his run of yards, but without a completely healthy Cassell and Dwaye Bowe disappearing for long stretches of the season last year, I can't have any confidence in the Chiefs offense.
The Bills have a serviceable QB in Ryan Fitzpatrick and emerging start WR Stevie Johnson along with two headed spear Rb committee; Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller. In the end, the Bills offense just does a little more than the Chiefs offense, but it might be a big home-field play that puts the Chiefs just over the Bills, but certainly by less than 6 points.
Indianapolis @ Houston(-9) (o/u 44)
Savant Spread Pick: Indianapolis with the points; Houston to win ~ 28-20
Over/Under Pick: Over
Result: Houston 34 Indianapolis 7 / Total Score 41 /
Winner: + Spread: - O/U: -
With this spread it is easy to see that gamblers are predicting gloom and doom for the Colts without Peyton Manning in the lineup. Though I happen to agree with them, I don't agree to that level of doom. The Colts will be below average without Peyton, but they could have a worse starter filling in than Kerry Collins. The team, even without Peyton, still has a ton of talent all over the offense. Collins just needs to delivery the ball and they can do the rest.
It won't be nearly enough to keep up with one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL in the Texans. Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson are going to have a field day against an average Colts secondary. The Texans should lead by more than the spread for most of the game, but will allow some meaningless points at the end when they have the game in hand and it will be just enough to both uncover the spread and make Indy a winning bet versus the spread and enough to get over the o/u hump and make the over a winning bet.
St. Louis vs. Philadelphia(-4) (o/u 44)
Savant Spread Pick: Philadelphia and the points to win ~ 31-13
Over/Under Pick: Over
Result: Philadelphia 31 St. Louis 13 *Perfect Prediction!* / Total Score 44 /
Winner: + Spread: + O/U: push
One of the greatest disadvantages a home team can ever have is when they play in a dome and they have relatively little team speed and they are playing a team with one of the NFL's fastest offenses. Philly's blazing-fast receivers, not to mention the speed of QB Michael Vick, will torch the Rams "no-name" defense on their home carpet. Sam Bradford is young and still struggles against a fast blitzing pass-rush, which the Eagles are known to be the best at in the league. This won't even be close. Take Philly and the over with great confidence.
Cincinnati @ Cleveland(-6.5) (o/u 35)
Savant Spread Pick: Cleveland and the points to win ~ 14-6
Over/Under Pick: Under
Result: Cleveland 27 Cleveland 17 / Total Score 44 /
Winner: - Spread: - O/U: -
This is the throw-away game of the week, but it's the throw-away game that is many times the hardest to bet on because you don't know what to expect. In this case, I think the decision is not too difficult. Nothing screams offensive impotence more than a rookie QB making his first career start. It almost typically ends with that team not scoring a TD the entire game no matter how good that team's running backs are(and the Bengals don't have much at RB).
Cleveland, sadly, is not in a much better position, however they have the QB with more experience(by 1 year) and the much more dominating RB, Madden '12 cover-boy Peyton Hillis. The Browns also have the clearly superior defense, actually a strong point on their team. I wouldn't be surprised if the Browns shut-out the Bengals, but for the sake of a turnover or two deep in their own territory, I think Bengals squeak out a couple of field goals and nothing more. This makes taking the under a very easy wager to me.
Tennessee @ Jacksonville(-1) (o/u 37)
Savant Spread Pick: Tennessee to win ~ 23-17
Over/Under Pick: Under
Result: Jacksonville 16 Tennessee 13 / Total Score 29 /
Winner: - Spread: - O/U: +
Career NFL journeyman, QB Luke McCown gets a very surprise start in week 1 for the Jaguars. The Jags inauspiciously fired their franchise QB, David Garrard, just a week before the regular season in what looked like a money saving move by the team. Though no one can quite understand this move, it does tangibly downgrade the whole offense. They still have elite RB Maurice Jones-Drew, but he will be faced with lots of eight man fronts with no threat of great QB play by McCown.
Tennessee, of course, still has all-world RB Chris Johnson who is capable of making the homerun breakout for a TD every time he touches the ball. The Titans can expect good, consistent play from new QB Matt Hasselbeck throwing to stud wideout Kenny Britt. The Jags will only score points based on the quality of play from Mo-Jo, which I expect to be high. Tennessee still wins easily. The Jags practically announced they were giving up on 2011 when they cut Garrard.
Washington v. New York(N)(-2.5) (o/u 39.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Washington to win 24-21
Over/Under Pick:Over
Result: Washington 28 New York(N) 14 / Total Score 42 /
Winner: + Spread: + O/U: +
*Trifecta *
Some games have an outside factor that can have a profound effect on he outcome of the game, like when the heavy underdog Saints routed the heavily favored Falcons in the New Orleans Super Dome reopening after hurricane Katrina. I think this game will have that factor. Emotions will be running very high as the two cities that were directly hit by the attacks of 9/11 play each other on the 10th anniversary of the tragedy.
Though the Giants are the more talented team, they have 6 defensive players already on season-ending injured reserve. But more importantly, that D.C. crowd is going to be outrageous as they are running high with emotion from the anniversary. Home crowd makes the difference in this one. I'm taking Washington and the over because of the Giants suspect defense and the emergence of new Redskins RB Tim Hightower looking real good in preseason. We know the Giants can and will score points on offense. The over here feels like a lock to me.
Carolina @ Arizona(-6.5) (o/u 37.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Arizona and the points to win ~ 27-3
Over/Under Pick: Under
Result: Arizona 28 Carolina 21 / Total Score 49 /
Winner: + Spread: + O/U: -
As was discussed about rookie QB's making their first NF start earlier, we have another for the Panthers in QB Cam Newton. He won the job fair and square in the preseason, but it was mostly because he had no competition to fight with for the job. Cam may be a good dual-threat QB someday, but it's not in his first NFL start. I want to call a shutout in this one, but alas Arizona will probably find a way to have at least one turnover in their territory giving the Panthers a chance to go 3 and out and kick a long field goal. This is a no-brainer, Cards and the under.
Seattle @ San Francisco(-5.5) (o/u 37.5)
Savant Spread Pick: San Francisco and the points to win ~ 21-10
Over/Under Pick: Under
Result: San Francisco 33 Seattle 17 / Total Score 50 /
Winner: + Spread: + O/U: -
San Francisco is no prize these days, but few teams have taken a plunge like the Seahawks. New QB Tavaris Jackson has looked atrocious in the preseason and newly acquired deep threat WR Sidney Rice will miss the game(shoulder). They also have injuries at offensive line.
The 49ers are coming in to the game with most everyone healthy and a new look offense under new coach Jim Harbaugh and their own deep threat WR acquisition, Braylon Edwards. The only player of any significance on the Seattle offense is their running back Marshawn Lynch, but the 49ers have the best middle LB in football, Patrick Willis, to stuff those running lanes. It's fair to say the 49ers will cover the spread, it's more a certainty they will combine for under 38 points.
Minnesota @ San Diego(-8.5) (o/u 42)
Savant Spread Pick: San Diego and the points to win ~ 34-13
Over/Under Pick: Over
Result: San Diego 24 Minnesota 17 / Total Score 41 /
Winner: + Spread: - O/U: -
One team last year had the #1 offense and the #1 defense in the NFL in 2010; it was the San Diego Chargers. A feat already rarely done, but nonetheless done with their greatest offensive weapon, TE Antonio Gates, and superstar WR Vincent Jackson missing most of the season! They now have both guys back and healthy and will only add to the arsenal that QB Philip Rivers has at his disposal.
Minnesota acquired veteran QB Donovan McNabb to fill their "Favre Void" and he's not a bad pickup, but it is not McNabb that will make the Vikings a sub-par team this year, it will be the defense. You can always count on all-world RB Adrian Peterson to show up on Sundays and dominate, but with an average receiving corps., the Vikings will be a run-oriented team. San Diego will prove to be way too much for them to handle and this should be a blowout.
Dallas @ New York(A)(-6.) (o/u 40.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Dallas with the points; New York to win ~ 21-16
Over/Under Pick: Under
Result: New York(A) 27 Dallas 24 / Total Score 51 /
Winner: + Spread: + O/U: +
*Trifecta*
The Jets are one tough cookie to beat at home and Dallas showed signs of improvement late last year, but have lost some players coming into this season, mostly because of salary cap casualties. Dallas has a pretty nice offense with QB Tony Romo, TE Jason Witten and stud WR's Miles Austin and Dez Bryant, but the Jets are a better defense, finishing ranked near the top in 2010.
Dallas has a starter in the secondary out for the game and this should give WR Santonio Homes some extra space to squeeze in some more yardage that will make the difference in the game. Dallas will be able to keep the running game of Shonn Green and LaDanian Tomlinson somewhat in-check, but I feel like they are going to get burned a few times for big chunks in the passing game. This is a tricky one, but my gut tells me to take Dallas with the points and take the under.
Miami vs. New England (-7) (o/u 45.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Miami with the points; New England to win ~ 26-20
Over/Under Pick: Over
Result: New England 38 Miami 24 / Total Score 62 /
Winner: + Spread: - O/U: +
The Patriots are a team that is finally showing some cracks in it's marbled "dynasty" this year. Acquiring misfits DT Albert Haynesworth and WR Chad Ochocinco looked to be a bit of a desperation move for a team that is not very good at the WR or DT positions. It appears that neither move is really panning out, too. When you have Tom Brady you always have a chance, no matter who you put out there, but Brady didn't win those Super Bowls on his own. This will be one of the worst supporting casts he has seen in a number of years.
It's rare to be a 7 point dog at home, but leave it to the Dolphins to manage this. After a failed attempt to trade for Kyle Orton, they are still stuck with QB Chad Henne. They took a downgrade at the RB position, letting go Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams to sign unproven every-down back, Reggie Bush and drafted rookie Daniel Thomas to back him up. Lucky for the Dolphins, they have possibly the best kicker in the NFL in Dan Carpenter. He can bail them out some when they stall near the 40 yard line and drop those long field goals he did many times last year. The Pats are good enough to win this game over the Dolphins, but they won't dominate them like they have in years past.
Oakland @ Denver(-3) (o/u 40.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Denver and the points to win ~ 24-20
Over/Under Pick: Over
Result: Oakland 23 Denver 20 / Total Score 43 /
Winner: - Spread: - O/U: +
The most under-rated QB in the NFL is a guy who threw for over 3,600 yards and 20 TD's last year. That QB is Denver's Kyle Orton. He's back with his favorite weapon, WR Brandon Lloyd who was one of the NFLs' top receivers. Denver is not going to be very good this year, but they can surely take advantage of an Oakland secondary that will be without Nnamdi Asomugha, whom they lost to the Eagles in the free-agent market. Oakland will be able to run the ball effectively against the Broncos porous defense, but the air attack with Kyle Orton will prevail and look for a two TD game from Willis McGahee for Denver. These teams have above average offenses and bad defenses, wager the over with confidence.
I hope this guide proved to be helpful! Look out for my picks each and every week of the NFL season.
*WEEK 1 - RESULTS UPDATE*
Winner: 10-6
Winner w/ Spread: 8-8
Over/Under: 7-8-1
Trifecta: 3
Perfect Score Predictions: 3 (Atlanta, St. Louis, Detroit)
Perfect Game Predictions: 1 (Atlanta v. St. Louis)
NOTE: The Green Bay/New Orleans game was played Thursday, September 8th so no pick or analysis will be given, but for the record, I had Green Bay winning by 7 and both teams scoring often so I took the over. Nice start, huh?
NOTE 2: The team with a negative number in parenthesis "(-3)" next to their name is the favorite to win the matchup and the number represents how many points the favorite has to score more than the underdog to count as a winning bet. The over/under for the game is represented by a number in parenthesis with the letters o and u "(o/u 46)". The number represents the amount of points you are wagering whether or not the two team's combined score will be in excess of or short of. Official betting lines courtesy of www.footballlocks.com
Pittsburgh @ Baltimore(-1.5) (o/u 36)
Savant Spread Pick: Pittsburgh to win ~ 16-14
Over/Under Pick: Under
Result: Baltimore 35 Pittsburgh 7 / Total Score 42 /
Winner: - Spread: - O/U: -
This game is always very physical as these teams have a downright hatred for one another. When these teams play, it's lights out collision-making on every play. These teams have hard hitters that hit their hardest when they play each other. Injury is always a high risk in these games because of intensified aggression of the rivalry. Both teams will have mental mistakes as the lockout prevented them from having much time to gel in a truncated off-season. Most of the familiar names of recent years are all still with their teams for this game as neither team did much in free-agency so you can expect a similar result to what has happened in years past in this one. These factors are why I'm taking the under at 36. These games typically end in 13-10 fashion, so under is a safe play.
This early in the season, great defenses usually get the better of good offenses. Because of this, and the Ravens star defensive players being just another year older in the twilight of their careers, the Steelers should win this game by at least a field goal.
Detroit @ Tampa Bay(-1) (o/u 42.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Detroit to win ~ 27-17
Over/Under Pick: Over
Result: Detroit 27 Tampa Bay 20 / Total Score 47 /
Winner: + Spread: + O/U: +
*Trifecta*
I know it's on the road and a long flight to Tampa from Michigan, but the Lions are a team ready to prove people wrong and they have the arsenal to do it. This Lions team is a whole other beast when it has it's signal caller, Matthew Stafford at the helm. This season, Stafford to Calvin Johnson will be one of the leagues best duos and they will score lots of points with their high-octane offense. The Bucs are a team that will take a step back this year. They were not as good as advertised last year. Four of their 10 wins in 2010 came in a sweep of the worst division in football, the NFC West.
Those preposterously large defensive lineman on the Lions(Suh and Fairley) are going to plug up running lanes and TB running back, LeGarrett Blount is an in-between the tackles runner. Lions should neutralize the running game and make the Bucs more one-dimensional. The Bucs will put up a couple of TD's; the Lions will put up even more TD's. This is why I took the Lions and the over. This isn't a close game to me.
Chicago vs. Atlanta(-2) (o/u 40.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Atlanta and the points to win ~ 24-13
Over/Under Pick: Under
Result: Chicago 30 Atlanta 12 / Total Score 42 /
Winner: - Spread: - O/U: -
This appears to be one of the easier picks of the week, as I see it. Atlanta has very real Super Bowl aspirations and the Bears will be lucky to finish third in their division this season. The Bears gave up the most sacks in the NFL last season. Their strange way of remedying this is to cut their only Pro-Bowl offensive lineman(C Olin Kruetz) and signed, nor drafted anyone worthwhile to replace him. So the worst O-line in football only got less talented and less experienced. Not only do you have that problem, but they had one of the worst receiving corps. in the NFL last year and they only signed Cowboy reject, Roy Williams who was cut by Dallas because he was way overpaid, so they are still bad in that area.
This pick isn't even as much about how good the Falcons are, and they will be very good, but more about how disappointing the Bears will be in 2011. Most games the Bears played in last year were very low scoring and I don't think even 28 points by the Falcons will be enough to help the bad Bears offense help the game total eclipse the 41 point mark so I'd say under is a safe bet.
Buffalo @ Kansas City(-5.5) (o/u 39.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Buffalo with the points; Kansas City to win ~ 21-14
Over/Under Pick: Under
Result: Buffalo 41 Kansas City 7 / Total Score 48 /
Winner: - Spread: + O/U: -
It wouldn't be surprising to me if Buffalo went right in to KC and beat them on their home-field, but it's because of that tremendous home-field advantage the Chiefs maintain, I've got them winning by just a field goal, if they win at all. KC QB Matt Cassell sustained a rib injury in the final preseason game a week ago and was questionable for the game so he will be less than 100%. Jamaal Charles will get his run of yards, but without a completely healthy Cassell and Dwaye Bowe disappearing for long stretches of the season last year, I can't have any confidence in the Chiefs offense.
The Bills have a serviceable QB in Ryan Fitzpatrick and emerging start WR Stevie Johnson along with two headed spear Rb committee; Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller. In the end, the Bills offense just does a little more than the Chiefs offense, but it might be a big home-field play that puts the Chiefs just over the Bills, but certainly by less than 6 points.
Indianapolis @ Houston(-9) (o/u 44)
Savant Spread Pick: Indianapolis with the points; Houston to win ~ 28-20
Over/Under Pick: Over
Result: Houston 34 Indianapolis 7 / Total Score 41 /
Winner: + Spread: - O/U: -
With this spread it is easy to see that gamblers are predicting gloom and doom for the Colts without Peyton Manning in the lineup. Though I happen to agree with them, I don't agree to that level of doom. The Colts will be below average without Peyton, but they could have a worse starter filling in than Kerry Collins. The team, even without Peyton, still has a ton of talent all over the offense. Collins just needs to delivery the ball and they can do the rest.
It won't be nearly enough to keep up with one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL in the Texans. Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson are going to have a field day against an average Colts secondary. The Texans should lead by more than the spread for most of the game, but will allow some meaningless points at the end when they have the game in hand and it will be just enough to both uncover the spread and make Indy a winning bet versus the spread and enough to get over the o/u hump and make the over a winning bet.
St. Louis vs. Philadelphia(-4) (o/u 44)
Savant Spread Pick: Philadelphia and the points to win ~ 31-13
Over/Under Pick: Over
Result: Philadelphia 31 St. Louis 13 *Perfect Prediction!* / Total Score 44 /
Winner: + Spread: + O/U: push
One of the greatest disadvantages a home team can ever have is when they play in a dome and they have relatively little team speed and they are playing a team with one of the NFL's fastest offenses. Philly's blazing-fast receivers, not to mention the speed of QB Michael Vick, will torch the Rams "no-name" defense on their home carpet. Sam Bradford is young and still struggles against a fast blitzing pass-rush, which the Eagles are known to be the best at in the league. This won't even be close. Take Philly and the over with great confidence.
Cincinnati @ Cleveland(-6.5) (o/u 35)
Savant Spread Pick: Cleveland and the points to win ~ 14-6
Over/Under Pick: Under
Result: Cleveland 27 Cleveland 17 / Total Score 44 /
Winner: - Spread: - O/U: -
This is the throw-away game of the week, but it's the throw-away game that is many times the hardest to bet on because you don't know what to expect. In this case, I think the decision is not too difficult. Nothing screams offensive impotence more than a rookie QB making his first career start. It almost typically ends with that team not scoring a TD the entire game no matter how good that team's running backs are(and the Bengals don't have much at RB).
Cleveland, sadly, is not in a much better position, however they have the QB with more experience(by 1 year) and the much more dominating RB, Madden '12 cover-boy Peyton Hillis. The Browns also have the clearly superior defense, actually a strong point on their team. I wouldn't be surprised if the Browns shut-out the Bengals, but for the sake of a turnover or two deep in their own territory, I think Bengals squeak out a couple of field goals and nothing more. This makes taking the under a very easy wager to me.
Tennessee @ Jacksonville(-1) (o/u 37)
Savant Spread Pick: Tennessee to win ~ 23-17
Over/Under Pick: Under
Result: Jacksonville 16 Tennessee 13 / Total Score 29 /
Winner: - Spread: - O/U: +
Career NFL journeyman, QB Luke McCown gets a very surprise start in week 1 for the Jaguars. The Jags inauspiciously fired their franchise QB, David Garrard, just a week before the regular season in what looked like a money saving move by the team. Though no one can quite understand this move, it does tangibly downgrade the whole offense. They still have elite RB Maurice Jones-Drew, but he will be faced with lots of eight man fronts with no threat of great QB play by McCown.
Tennessee, of course, still has all-world RB Chris Johnson who is capable of making the homerun breakout for a TD every time he touches the ball. The Titans can expect good, consistent play from new QB Matt Hasselbeck throwing to stud wideout Kenny Britt. The Jags will only score points based on the quality of play from Mo-Jo, which I expect to be high. Tennessee still wins easily. The Jags practically announced they were giving up on 2011 when they cut Garrard.
Washington v. New York(N)(-2.5) (o/u 39.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Washington to win 24-21
Over/Under Pick:Over
Result: Washington 28 New York(N) 14 / Total Score 42 /
Winner: + Spread: + O/U: +
*Trifecta *
Some games have an outside factor that can have a profound effect on he outcome of the game, like when the heavy underdog Saints routed the heavily favored Falcons in the New Orleans Super Dome reopening after hurricane Katrina. I think this game will have that factor. Emotions will be running very high as the two cities that were directly hit by the attacks of 9/11 play each other on the 10th anniversary of the tragedy.
Though the Giants are the more talented team, they have 6 defensive players already on season-ending injured reserve. But more importantly, that D.C. crowd is going to be outrageous as they are running high with emotion from the anniversary. Home crowd makes the difference in this one. I'm taking Washington and the over because of the Giants suspect defense and the emergence of new Redskins RB Tim Hightower looking real good in preseason. We know the Giants can and will score points on offense. The over here feels like a lock to me.
Carolina @ Arizona(-6.5) (o/u 37.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Arizona and the points to win ~ 27-3
Over/Under Pick: Under
Result: Arizona 28 Carolina 21 / Total Score 49 /
Winner: + Spread: + O/U: -
As was discussed about rookie QB's making their first NF start earlier, we have another for the Panthers in QB Cam Newton. He won the job fair and square in the preseason, but it was mostly because he had no competition to fight with for the job. Cam may be a good dual-threat QB someday, but it's not in his first NFL start. I want to call a shutout in this one, but alas Arizona will probably find a way to have at least one turnover in their territory giving the Panthers a chance to go 3 and out and kick a long field goal. This is a no-brainer, Cards and the under.
Seattle @ San Francisco(-5.5) (o/u 37.5)
Savant Spread Pick: San Francisco and the points to win ~ 21-10
Over/Under Pick: Under
Result: San Francisco 33 Seattle 17 / Total Score 50 /
Winner: + Spread: + O/U: -
San Francisco is no prize these days, but few teams have taken a plunge like the Seahawks. New QB Tavaris Jackson has looked atrocious in the preseason and newly acquired deep threat WR Sidney Rice will miss the game(shoulder). They also have injuries at offensive line.
The 49ers are coming in to the game with most everyone healthy and a new look offense under new coach Jim Harbaugh and their own deep threat WR acquisition, Braylon Edwards. The only player of any significance on the Seattle offense is their running back Marshawn Lynch, but the 49ers have the best middle LB in football, Patrick Willis, to stuff those running lanes. It's fair to say the 49ers will cover the spread, it's more a certainty they will combine for under 38 points.
Minnesota @ San Diego(-8.5) (o/u 42)
Savant Spread Pick: San Diego and the points to win ~ 34-13
Over/Under Pick: Over
Result: San Diego 24 Minnesota 17 / Total Score 41 /
Winner: + Spread: - O/U: -
One team last year had the #1 offense and the #1 defense in the NFL in 2010; it was the San Diego Chargers. A feat already rarely done, but nonetheless done with their greatest offensive weapon, TE Antonio Gates, and superstar WR Vincent Jackson missing most of the season! They now have both guys back and healthy and will only add to the arsenal that QB Philip Rivers has at his disposal.
Minnesota acquired veteran QB Donovan McNabb to fill their "Favre Void" and he's not a bad pickup, but it is not McNabb that will make the Vikings a sub-par team this year, it will be the defense. You can always count on all-world RB Adrian Peterson to show up on Sundays and dominate, but with an average receiving corps., the Vikings will be a run-oriented team. San Diego will prove to be way too much for them to handle and this should be a blowout.
Dallas @ New York(A)(-6.) (o/u 40.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Dallas with the points; New York to win ~ 21-16
Over/Under Pick: Under
Result: New York(A) 27 Dallas 24 / Total Score 51 /
Winner: + Spread: + O/U: +
*Trifecta*
The Jets are one tough cookie to beat at home and Dallas showed signs of improvement late last year, but have lost some players coming into this season, mostly because of salary cap casualties. Dallas has a pretty nice offense with QB Tony Romo, TE Jason Witten and stud WR's Miles Austin and Dez Bryant, but the Jets are a better defense, finishing ranked near the top in 2010.
Dallas has a starter in the secondary out for the game and this should give WR Santonio Homes some extra space to squeeze in some more yardage that will make the difference in the game. Dallas will be able to keep the running game of Shonn Green and LaDanian Tomlinson somewhat in-check, but I feel like they are going to get burned a few times for big chunks in the passing game. This is a tricky one, but my gut tells me to take Dallas with the points and take the under.
Miami vs. New England (-7) (o/u 45.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Miami with the points; New England to win ~ 26-20
Over/Under Pick: Over
Result: New England 38 Miami 24 / Total Score 62 /
Winner: + Spread: - O/U: +
The Patriots are a team that is finally showing some cracks in it's marbled "dynasty" this year. Acquiring misfits DT Albert Haynesworth and WR Chad Ochocinco looked to be a bit of a desperation move for a team that is not very good at the WR or DT positions. It appears that neither move is really panning out, too. When you have Tom Brady you always have a chance, no matter who you put out there, but Brady didn't win those Super Bowls on his own. This will be one of the worst supporting casts he has seen in a number of years.
It's rare to be a 7 point dog at home, but leave it to the Dolphins to manage this. After a failed attempt to trade for Kyle Orton, they are still stuck with QB Chad Henne. They took a downgrade at the RB position, letting go Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams to sign unproven every-down back, Reggie Bush and drafted rookie Daniel Thomas to back him up. Lucky for the Dolphins, they have possibly the best kicker in the NFL in Dan Carpenter. He can bail them out some when they stall near the 40 yard line and drop those long field goals he did many times last year. The Pats are good enough to win this game over the Dolphins, but they won't dominate them like they have in years past.
Oakland @ Denver(-3) (o/u 40.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Denver and the points to win ~ 24-20
Over/Under Pick: Over
Result: Oakland 23 Denver 20 / Total Score 43 /
Winner: - Spread: - O/U: +
The most under-rated QB in the NFL is a guy who threw for over 3,600 yards and 20 TD's last year. That QB is Denver's Kyle Orton. He's back with his favorite weapon, WR Brandon Lloyd who was one of the NFLs' top receivers. Denver is not going to be very good this year, but they can surely take advantage of an Oakland secondary that will be without Nnamdi Asomugha, whom they lost to the Eagles in the free-agent market. Oakland will be able to run the ball effectively against the Broncos porous defense, but the air attack with Kyle Orton will prevail and look for a two TD game from Willis McGahee for Denver. These teams have above average offenses and bad defenses, wager the over with confidence.
I hope this guide proved to be helpful! Look out for my picks each and every week of the NFL season.
NFL 2011 - NFC Divisional Predictions and Analysis
It's back. Another year of NFL football is among us and if Thursday night's barn-burner between the last two Super Bowl winners, the Packers and Saints, is any indication of the excitement we can expect in 2011, it's going to be a season for the ages.
Like most admiring fans of the NFL, I watched intently through the summer while the NFLPA and NFL butted heads about who should get more of the ridiculous profit pie that the NFL creates hoping that we would just have football on time this year. As I predicted though, the season started in plenty of time for teams to make moves and get teams acclimated to playing together, albeit in an extremely truncated fashion.
But now that football is back and the first full slate of Sunday games is just hours away, it is time for yours truly, The Sports Savant, to make this season's NFL predictions for you to enjoy and hopefully follow. The predictions will consist of each division's winners, what their record will be and how they will place in each division. So without further adieu, here are the predictions you can count on. We'll start with the division that is home to the 2010 Super Bowl Champs, the NFC North.
NFC NORTH 2011 Standings:
1.Packers (12-4)
2.Lions (9-7)
3.Bears (8-8)
4.Vikings (5-11)
NFC NORTH 2011 Analysis:
1. Green Bay Packers
There's no question that the Packers have what it takes to dominate this division considering that they made and won the Super Bowl in 2010 without key starting running back Ryan Grant for the entire season and elite receiving tight end, Jermichael Finley. Both have returned to the roster in 2011 in addition to the core nucleus of QB Aaron Rodgers, WR1 Greg Jennings, WR2 Donald Driver, RB2 James Starks and WR3 Jordy Nelson to make them even stronger for a repeat title run. Don't forget about that defense either, which is one of the best in football. The Packers have one of the most ferocious 3-4 defenses in the NFL anchored in the middle by B.J. Raji at nose tackle, Clay Matthews and A.J. Hawk playing the inside linebacker positions and shut-down pro-bowl cornerback Charles Woodson. This team should handle division foes with ease and will only stumble a handful of times against elite competition outside of the division.
2. Detroit Lions
It may be to your astonishment that I have the Detroit Lions wrapping up the NFC NORTH in 2nd place. Yes, THOSE Detroit Lions. But before you dismiss them, hear this out... With the addition of Nick Fairley, the dominating defensive tackle out of Auburn's 2010 national title team, in the 2011 NFL draft's first round, the Lions may have the best defensive line in football when posted next to reigning 2010 defensive rookie of the year, Ndamukong Suh. They will be very difficult to gain any yards on the ground against and opposing quarterbacks will have to feel very rushed with these two behemoths chasing them down. Offensively, they look pretty dangerous. Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson have proven that they are a duo that is to be reckoned with when Stafford is healthy and I believe this is Stafford's year to make all 16 starts considering he had never missed a game at any level before he played in the NFL. Jahvid Best is a serviceable running back with quick moves and breakout ability and they have a pretty good back-up RB in Jerome Harrison. They also have a nice WR2 in Nate Burleson who had a nice season in 2010 despite catching passes from Shaun Hill half of the year. They will be up and down in 2011, but in the end, they wind up with nine wins and a tie-break for 2nd place in the division over the Chicago Bears.
3. Chicago Bears
The Bears are a real mystery this year; especially in the front office. A big part of the Bears lack of success last year had to do with their pieced together offensive line that could never seem to play as one cohesive unit and give QB Jay Cutler the protection he needed. They very easily lead the NFL in sacks allowed and allowing sacks is the best way to get your offense off schedule and wind up punting, which they did a lot of in 2010. This very brief off-season, the Bears GM had a pressing need to find better talent to play offensive line if the Bears had any chance to succeed this year, so hwo does he decide to improve the line? He cuts the Bears only pro-bowler and best offensive lineman, C Olin Kreutz and then signs no one of significance to fill in the line. So, the Bears biggest problem last year has only gotten worse after the best guy on that unit was sent packing to save money. It was the Bears who won this division in 2010, people forget and they somehow managed it with Jay Cutler lying on his back more than anyone in the NFL. Speed demon WR/PR Devin Hester, talented running back Matt Forte and of course, that staunch Bears D lead once again by MLB Brian Urlacher will keep them in games and even win them a few, but in the end, I don't see this as a team that will win any more games than they lose.
4. Minnesota Vikings
This is a team that looks much better on paper than they will be on the field. It's hard to imagine a team that has quite possibly the most dominating RB1 in the NFL, Adrian Peterson, the crafty and consistent veteran QB Donovan McNabb and lightning-fast WR1 Percy Harvin to have a five win season, but when you look at it, those guys, as good as they will be, are not enough to win games for this team with little else surrounding them. Bernard Berrian is an average WR2, but niether he nor Harvin have the deep-ball capability that puts fear in the heart of a defense. Look for a lot of eight-man fronts lining up opposite that Viking offense to focus on stopping Peterson. The Viking defense looked unusually shaky last year and no major improvements to either side of the ball were made this year going into the season. All-the-while, the Lions and Packers took strides to getting better between the draft, free-agent pickups and returning, healthy players. This is a team that simply needs more talent to compete in this tough division.
NFC SOUTH 2011 Standings:
1.Atlanta Falcons (13-3)
2.New Orleans Saints (12-4)
3.Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-7)
4.Carolina Panthers (3-13)
NFC SOUTH 2011 Analysis:
1. Atlanta Falcons
This was the surprise elite team in 2010 and the Atlanta Falcons have shown that they are here to stay in 2011 and improve on what was an overachieving year in 2010. The team has all the key players from last year's successful season coming back and look for signal caller, QB Matt Ryan, to step it up another level this year. The only weakness in the Falcon offense last year was their inability to find a good 2nd WR option behind elite WR1 Roddy White. The Falcons drafted just the man to fill the void, speedy WR2 Julio Jones. Jones and White will be a WR duo that will be very hard to cover and when defenses are busy concentrating on the WR combo, RB1 Michael Turner and highly versatile RB2 Jason Snelling will be eating up yards on the ground. This offense will prove next to impossible to stop, especially at home where they are almost perfect in the last two seasons. The defense is still stout with stars DE John Abraham, DT Justin Babineaux and S Dunta Robinson returning from last year. The Saints will give them a good fight, but the Falcons prevail as division champs once again in 2011.
2. New Orleans Saints
Having the hindsight of Thursday's game against the Green Bay Packers, the Saints appear to be exactly what I thought they would be; a high-powered, explosive offense with a defense that is still questionable against elite offenses. The way the Saints were exposed by the Packers gave us light into just how average this defense can be at times. QB Drew Brees will find plenty of targets and gaudy offensive statistics in true Drew Brees fashion once again in 2011. With his greatness and a host of very good receivers to throw to every Sunday, the passing game will put up top NFl numbers again in 2011. Also, the addition of little-big man, RB3/PR Darren Sproles, the return of shifty veteran RB1 Pierre Thomas and newly drafted Heisman winner out of Alabama, RB2 Mark Ingram, the Saints will also be a top 10 team in team rushing. This offense will just have to outscore their opponents, especially against elite competition. It's a recipe for 2nd place in their division and though they will make the playoffs as a wild card, will face a tough playoff opponent on the road like they did in 2010 when they lost in the first round to the dreadful Seattle Seahawks.
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
No team in the NFL has more talent under the age of 25 than the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. QB Josh Freeman is on the fast track to elite status, RB1 LeGarrett Blount wasn't even drafted last year out of college but showed the NFL what it was missing in the second half of last year by running all over the competition. Good hands receivers WR2 Arrelious Benn and star WR1 Mike Williams will lead the way for the passing game and even TE Kellen Winslow will see his fair share of catches as the Bucs will do well on offense. However, the only recognizable names on defense are LB Geno Hayes, pro-bowl CB1 Aqib Talib and CB2 Ronde Barber. The rest of the defense has mediocre ability and honestly, it would seem that Ronde Barber may be past his days as a quality corner. This team surprised everyone by winning 10 games last year, but 4 of their wins came against the inferior NFC WEST, whom they will only play one of this year(49ers). Considering a much more difficult schedule for this relatively inexperienced team, the Buccaneers will take a small step back this year and finish with a respectable nine wins which will be good for 3rd in their division but not worthy of a playoff game.
4. Carolina Panthers
There is very little one can say that is positive about the Panthers current state of affairs. They are being lead by their #1 overall draft pick in 2011, QB Cam Newton which is a scary and certainly unproductive season in the future. The last few #1 overall QB's selected in the draft that were thrown to the wolves in week 1 of their rookie season didn't fair very well at all in their first year as the team's rookie starter. One was David Carr, who would go on to set the single season record for sacks allowed, two years in a row. Another was some guy named Peyton Manning and his team went 3-13 in his rookie campaign. Aside from the rookie, Newton, the team does have one of the game's very good RB1's in DeAngelo Williams, who missed much of last year with a foot injury and the artist formerly known as RB2 Jonathon Stewart, who all but disappeared in Williams' absence last year. They still have the strong and reliable WR1 Steve Smith but beyond him this team has no talent depth at any other position. It's going to be a painful year for the Panthers, who also, by the way, have the NFL's most difficult schedule based on 2010 records, but it's all a part of the rebuilding process that is going on their under first time head coach and defensive mastermind, Ron Rivera.
NFC EAST 2011 Standings
1.Philadelphia Eagles (11-5)
2.Dallas Cowboys (9-7)
3.New York Giants (8-8)
4.Washington Redskins (6-10)
NFC EAST 2011 Analysis
1. Philadelphia Eagles
Though this isn't quite the "Dream Team" that Vince Young pronounced in the off-season, it is a team with incredible talent at almost all of the skill positions on offense and defense. It starts with the most dynamic athlete in the NFL, QB Michael Vick, who has the pocket presence to scan the field and make precise throws and can also run with the fastest of defensive players. Add him to a backfield that features great hands RB1 LeSean McCoy and RB2 Ronnie Brown who was newly acquired from the Miami Dolphins and you have three studs leading the offensive charge. Vick will have a plethora of targets in the lightning fast WR1 DeSean Jackson, WR2 Jeremy Maclin and even WR3 Jason Avant and TE Brent Celek will be put into the mix on offense. No team has more capable pass catchers than the Eagles. The offense is stacked, but it's the defense that may be even more impressive. Lead by superstar cornerback and former Oakland Raider, CB1 Nnamdi Asomugha who will counterpart star corners CB2 Asante Samuel and CB3/NB Dominique-Rodgers Cromartie. Not to be forgotten is that dominating defensive line that features pass rushers DE Justin Babin, NT Cullen Jenkins and DE Trent Cole. This team will have a much better record against out-of division/conference foes than against the NFC East only because the teams are so familiar with each other and the rivalries are so intense, strange things happen in those games. The only Achilles heel of this team will be its ability to stay healthy. I predict that either Michael Vick or another important piece of the offense may miss a couple of games because they have players that are prone to injury. Injury will be the only thing stopping this team from achieving the ultimate goal, a Super Bowl berth.
2. Dallas Cowboys
After an abysmal season in 2010 where expectations went from a Super Bowl berth in their home stadium to wondering if this team would finish with the leagues worst record, the Cowboys look to refresh that Cowboy swagger under their first full season under Head Coach, Jason Garrett. QB Tony Romo, who missed much of last season after a broken collarbone, is looking as sharp as he ever has. RB1 Felix Jones who was the backup to Marion Barber last year looks like a sleeper for a real breakout season as the team's starter. Another young standout WR2 Dez Bryant had a great rookie campaign in 2010 and also is primed to breakout in his sophomore season alongside well respected and talented WR1 Miles Austin. With TE Jason Witten also there to catch lots of passes, this offense should have no problem moving the ball. The defense is still anchored by All-Pro pass rusher, OLB DeMarcus Ware and should provide formidable defense last year; a real problem for the Cowboys in 2010. Though this looks like a team that has the talent to go far, I feel like they are still a year away from putting together a solid playoff run. This is still a team that makes too many mental mistakes at the wrong times and it will take them this year to get those issues pacthed up. You may even see them being more dominant in the later weeks, but I feel like this team gets off to a slow start.
3. New York Giants
This is a team that has the pedigree to achieve great things on offense, but it's the defense that is highly suspect. They still have a solid QB in Eli Manning and brilliant talent at the RB and WR positions with RB1 Ahmad Bradshaw and RB2 Brandon Jacobs and stars WR1 Hakeem Nicks and WR2 Mario Manningham. Even Kevin Boss is a serviceable TE, but when you look at all of the pre-season injuries that they have had to major defensive parts, they will struggle to keep the opposing offense off of the field. All-Pro DE Osi Umenyiora is unhappy with his contract and is also out for an indefinite amount of time, also premier DT Justin Tuck has injury issues. Six defensive players on the Giants have had season ending injuries which will affect their ability to stop opposing offenses. This is a team that will struggle to win eight games.
4. Washington Redskins
This is a team that should run the ball well behind a Mike Shanahan coached offensive line and Shanahan's patented zone run blocking scheme that has worked for decades no matter who is at running back. The biggest problem with this team, and it's a big problem to have, is that they don't have one decent QB to start. The entire preseason, Shanahan has mulled over which poison is least lethal, QB Rex Grossman or unproven starter QB John Beck. For now, Shanahan has gone with Grossman, but that could change at any moment. Free agent pick-up, RB1 Tim Hightower was a nice addition and he should pick up some nice gains on offense, but they won't be able to move the ball with either Grossman or Beck at the helm. Pass catchers WR1 Santana Moss and TE Chris Cooley will provide some relief for the mediocre QB play, but it won't be enough to get this team out of the NFC East cellar. On defense, they have the always incomparable, DeAngelo Hall, who set an NFL record last season with four interceptions in a single game, but he is only one of eleven guys on that field and it just won't be enough to beat anyone of significance. I see them winning one big division game, but that will be the highlight of their season.
NFC WEST 2011 Standings
1.San Francisco 49ers (9-7)
2.St. Louis Rams (8-8)
3.Arizona Cardinals (7-9)
4.Seattle Seahawks (4-12)
NFC WEST 2011 Analysis
1. San Francisco 49ers
In the land of the blind, the man with one eye rules. This thought can very well apply to the NFC West this year which is looking to shape up as the worst division in all of football once again in 2011. In 2011 though, I see the 49ers as being the "man with one eye" in this division. The team has a fresh start with rookie head coach and former NFL pro QB, Jim Harbaugh which should bode well for the development of QB Alex Smith. Smith has had an unprecedented 8 offensive coordinators in 7 years. This is his last chance in San Fran to make a name for himself. The addition of WR1 Braylon Edwards was a key pickup for this team that lacked in explosive passing plays in 2010. WR2 Michael Crabtree looks to improve upon his good sophomore season last year and, of course, the beast, Frank Gore will again be in the backfield, giving this offense the opportunity to break a TD run at any time. The defense took a hit with the loss of Aubrayo Franklin at NT and Takeo Spikes at ILB, but they have capable replacements on the D-Line and LB positions. Aside from the losses on D, the 49ers still have the best MLB in football, Patrick Willis. There aren't many reasons for the 49ers to win this division, but there are even fewer reasons why they should lose it.
2. St. Louis Rams
After a fine rookie season in 2010, sophomore QB Sam Bradford looks to improve on his rookie record setting season. I expect an improvement in Bradford's play, but there is only so much he can do with the very few tools he is provided catching the ball. WR1 Brandon Gibson is a nice deep threat, but is very one-dimensional. WR2 Mike Sims-Walker was picked up from Jacksonville, but the Rams needed a bigger splash in free agency than a guy who has had a couple of average seasons. Their lack of speed at the skill positions will be their biggest weakness on offense, but you can count on RB1 stud, Stephen Jackson, to create some additional offense on his own. The defense has serviceable defensive players DE Chris Long and MLB James Laurinaitus, but the rest of the starting defense could walk in a room with their name on their shirt and you still wouldn't know who they are.
3. Arizona Cardinals
The Cards made the biggest QB splash in the off-season of any team, trading for and signing highly touted QB Kevin Kolb who was backing up Michael Vick in Philly last year. Kolb looks like a nice fit to make a great QB/WR combo with the leagues most elite receiver, WR1 Larry Fitzgerald. They also improved at the TE position, signing former pro-bowler Todd Heap to be an outlet for Kolb. Aside from these three, the rest of the team has little skill or recognition. The WR2 is a second year player that had 24 catches last year, Andre Roberts. They lost their best running back to free agency leaving fumble-machine RB1 Beanie Wells to handle the brunt of the carries after he lost his job to Tim Hightower half-way through last season. The defense still has All-Pro Safety Adrian Wilson, who will make throwing deep on this team difficult and they have the veteran leadership of former Steeler LB, Joey Porter. They also have the quality play of DE Darnell Dockett giving them at least one formidable player on every level of the defense, but like the offense, once you get past those names, it's a bunch of unrecognizable players. This team would surely finish last in almost any division if they were not in the NFC West.
4. Seattle Seahawks
There are very few things you can point to on this team that are positive. The team lost it's veteran QB Matt Hasselbeck to the Titans and replaced him with the awful QB Tavaris Jackson. Returning to catch passes this year is star receiver WR1 Mike Williams who had a breakout season last year, but that was catching passes from Hasselbeck. They added coveted free agent WR2 Sidney Rice to the roster, but he is already going to miss the first game with a shoulder injury. "Beast Mode" returns this year with the powerful RB1 Marshawn Lynch, but with little happening in the passing game, defenses will surely load the box on Lynch, giving him little room to run. The only name worth mentioning on this defense is CB1 Marcus Trufant, who is actually a very skilled player at his position, but 99 out of 100 NFL fans couldn't tell you one thing about the other 10 starters on defense. This is a really bad team and possibly one of the worst in 2011. A year removed from winning the division last year, the Seahawks don't have a prayer at a division repeat.
Like most admiring fans of the NFL, I watched intently through the summer while the NFLPA and NFL butted heads about who should get more of the ridiculous profit pie that the NFL creates hoping that we would just have football on time this year. As I predicted though, the season started in plenty of time for teams to make moves and get teams acclimated to playing together, albeit in an extremely truncated fashion.
But now that football is back and the first full slate of Sunday games is just hours away, it is time for yours truly, The Sports Savant, to make this season's NFL predictions for you to enjoy and hopefully follow. The predictions will consist of each division's winners, what their record will be and how they will place in each division. So without further adieu, here are the predictions you can count on. We'll start with the division that is home to the 2010 Super Bowl Champs, the NFC North.
NFC NORTH 2011 Standings:
1.Packers (12-4)
2.Lions (9-7)
3.Bears (8-8)
4.Vikings (5-11)
NFC NORTH 2011 Analysis:
1. Green Bay Packers
There's no question that the Packers have what it takes to dominate this division considering that they made and won the Super Bowl in 2010 without key starting running back Ryan Grant for the entire season and elite receiving tight end, Jermichael Finley. Both have returned to the roster in 2011 in addition to the core nucleus of QB Aaron Rodgers, WR1 Greg Jennings, WR2 Donald Driver, RB2 James Starks and WR3 Jordy Nelson to make them even stronger for a repeat title run. Don't forget about that defense either, which is one of the best in football. The Packers have one of the most ferocious 3-4 defenses in the NFL anchored in the middle by B.J. Raji at nose tackle, Clay Matthews and A.J. Hawk playing the inside linebacker positions and shut-down pro-bowl cornerback Charles Woodson. This team should handle division foes with ease and will only stumble a handful of times against elite competition outside of the division.
2. Detroit Lions
It may be to your astonishment that I have the Detroit Lions wrapping up the NFC NORTH in 2nd place. Yes, THOSE Detroit Lions. But before you dismiss them, hear this out... With the addition of Nick Fairley, the dominating defensive tackle out of Auburn's 2010 national title team, in the 2011 NFL draft's first round, the Lions may have the best defensive line in football when posted next to reigning 2010 defensive rookie of the year, Ndamukong Suh. They will be very difficult to gain any yards on the ground against and opposing quarterbacks will have to feel very rushed with these two behemoths chasing them down. Offensively, they look pretty dangerous. Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson have proven that they are a duo that is to be reckoned with when Stafford is healthy and I believe this is Stafford's year to make all 16 starts considering he had never missed a game at any level before he played in the NFL. Jahvid Best is a serviceable running back with quick moves and breakout ability and they have a pretty good back-up RB in Jerome Harrison. They also have a nice WR2 in Nate Burleson who had a nice season in 2010 despite catching passes from Shaun Hill half of the year. They will be up and down in 2011, but in the end, they wind up with nine wins and a tie-break for 2nd place in the division over the Chicago Bears.
3. Chicago Bears
The Bears are a real mystery this year; especially in the front office. A big part of the Bears lack of success last year had to do with their pieced together offensive line that could never seem to play as one cohesive unit and give QB Jay Cutler the protection he needed. They very easily lead the NFL in sacks allowed and allowing sacks is the best way to get your offense off schedule and wind up punting, which they did a lot of in 2010. This very brief off-season, the Bears GM had a pressing need to find better talent to play offensive line if the Bears had any chance to succeed this year, so hwo does he decide to improve the line? He cuts the Bears only pro-bowler and best offensive lineman, C Olin Kreutz and then signs no one of significance to fill in the line. So, the Bears biggest problem last year has only gotten worse after the best guy on that unit was sent packing to save money. It was the Bears who won this division in 2010, people forget and they somehow managed it with Jay Cutler lying on his back more than anyone in the NFL. Speed demon WR/PR Devin Hester, talented running back Matt Forte and of course, that staunch Bears D lead once again by MLB Brian Urlacher will keep them in games and even win them a few, but in the end, I don't see this as a team that will win any more games than they lose.
4. Minnesota Vikings
This is a team that looks much better on paper than they will be on the field. It's hard to imagine a team that has quite possibly the most dominating RB1 in the NFL, Adrian Peterson, the crafty and consistent veteran QB Donovan McNabb and lightning-fast WR1 Percy Harvin to have a five win season, but when you look at it, those guys, as good as they will be, are not enough to win games for this team with little else surrounding them. Bernard Berrian is an average WR2, but niether he nor Harvin have the deep-ball capability that puts fear in the heart of a defense. Look for a lot of eight-man fronts lining up opposite that Viking offense to focus on stopping Peterson. The Viking defense looked unusually shaky last year and no major improvements to either side of the ball were made this year going into the season. All-the-while, the Lions and Packers took strides to getting better between the draft, free-agent pickups and returning, healthy players. This is a team that simply needs more talent to compete in this tough division.
NFC SOUTH 2011 Standings:
1.Atlanta Falcons (13-3)
2.New Orleans Saints (12-4)
3.Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-7)
4.Carolina Panthers (3-13)
NFC SOUTH 2011 Analysis:
1. Atlanta Falcons
This was the surprise elite team in 2010 and the Atlanta Falcons have shown that they are here to stay in 2011 and improve on what was an overachieving year in 2010. The team has all the key players from last year's successful season coming back and look for signal caller, QB Matt Ryan, to step it up another level this year. The only weakness in the Falcon offense last year was their inability to find a good 2nd WR option behind elite WR1 Roddy White. The Falcons drafted just the man to fill the void, speedy WR2 Julio Jones. Jones and White will be a WR duo that will be very hard to cover and when defenses are busy concentrating on the WR combo, RB1 Michael Turner and highly versatile RB2 Jason Snelling will be eating up yards on the ground. This offense will prove next to impossible to stop, especially at home where they are almost perfect in the last two seasons. The defense is still stout with stars DE John Abraham, DT Justin Babineaux and S Dunta Robinson returning from last year. The Saints will give them a good fight, but the Falcons prevail as division champs once again in 2011.
2. New Orleans Saints
Having the hindsight of Thursday's game against the Green Bay Packers, the Saints appear to be exactly what I thought they would be; a high-powered, explosive offense with a defense that is still questionable against elite offenses. The way the Saints were exposed by the Packers gave us light into just how average this defense can be at times. QB Drew Brees will find plenty of targets and gaudy offensive statistics in true Drew Brees fashion once again in 2011. With his greatness and a host of very good receivers to throw to every Sunday, the passing game will put up top NFl numbers again in 2011. Also, the addition of little-big man, RB3/PR Darren Sproles, the return of shifty veteran RB1 Pierre Thomas and newly drafted Heisman winner out of Alabama, RB2 Mark Ingram, the Saints will also be a top 10 team in team rushing. This offense will just have to outscore their opponents, especially against elite competition. It's a recipe for 2nd place in their division and though they will make the playoffs as a wild card, will face a tough playoff opponent on the road like they did in 2010 when they lost in the first round to the dreadful Seattle Seahawks.
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
No team in the NFL has more talent under the age of 25 than the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. QB Josh Freeman is on the fast track to elite status, RB1 LeGarrett Blount wasn't even drafted last year out of college but showed the NFL what it was missing in the second half of last year by running all over the competition. Good hands receivers WR2 Arrelious Benn and star WR1 Mike Williams will lead the way for the passing game and even TE Kellen Winslow will see his fair share of catches as the Bucs will do well on offense. However, the only recognizable names on defense are LB Geno Hayes, pro-bowl CB1 Aqib Talib and CB2 Ronde Barber. The rest of the defense has mediocre ability and honestly, it would seem that Ronde Barber may be past his days as a quality corner. This team surprised everyone by winning 10 games last year, but 4 of their wins came against the inferior NFC WEST, whom they will only play one of this year(49ers). Considering a much more difficult schedule for this relatively inexperienced team, the Buccaneers will take a small step back this year and finish with a respectable nine wins which will be good for 3rd in their division but not worthy of a playoff game.
4. Carolina Panthers
There is very little one can say that is positive about the Panthers current state of affairs. They are being lead by their #1 overall draft pick in 2011, QB Cam Newton which is a scary and certainly unproductive season in the future. The last few #1 overall QB's selected in the draft that were thrown to the wolves in week 1 of their rookie season didn't fair very well at all in their first year as the team's rookie starter. One was David Carr, who would go on to set the single season record for sacks allowed, two years in a row. Another was some guy named Peyton Manning and his team went 3-13 in his rookie campaign. Aside from the rookie, Newton, the team does have one of the game's very good RB1's in DeAngelo Williams, who missed much of last year with a foot injury and the artist formerly known as RB2 Jonathon Stewart, who all but disappeared in Williams' absence last year. They still have the strong and reliable WR1 Steve Smith but beyond him this team has no talent depth at any other position. It's going to be a painful year for the Panthers, who also, by the way, have the NFL's most difficult schedule based on 2010 records, but it's all a part of the rebuilding process that is going on their under first time head coach and defensive mastermind, Ron Rivera.
NFC EAST 2011 Standings
1.Philadelphia Eagles (11-5)
2.Dallas Cowboys (9-7)
3.New York Giants (8-8)
4.Washington Redskins (6-10)
NFC EAST 2011 Analysis
1. Philadelphia Eagles
Though this isn't quite the "Dream Team" that Vince Young pronounced in the off-season, it is a team with incredible talent at almost all of the skill positions on offense and defense. It starts with the most dynamic athlete in the NFL, QB Michael Vick, who has the pocket presence to scan the field and make precise throws and can also run with the fastest of defensive players. Add him to a backfield that features great hands RB1 LeSean McCoy and RB2 Ronnie Brown who was newly acquired from the Miami Dolphins and you have three studs leading the offensive charge. Vick will have a plethora of targets in the lightning fast WR1 DeSean Jackson, WR2 Jeremy Maclin and even WR3 Jason Avant and TE Brent Celek will be put into the mix on offense. No team has more capable pass catchers than the Eagles. The offense is stacked, but it's the defense that may be even more impressive. Lead by superstar cornerback and former Oakland Raider, CB1 Nnamdi Asomugha who will counterpart star corners CB2 Asante Samuel and CB3/NB Dominique-Rodgers Cromartie. Not to be forgotten is that dominating defensive line that features pass rushers DE Justin Babin, NT Cullen Jenkins and DE Trent Cole. This team will have a much better record against out-of division/conference foes than against the NFC East only because the teams are so familiar with each other and the rivalries are so intense, strange things happen in those games. The only Achilles heel of this team will be its ability to stay healthy. I predict that either Michael Vick or another important piece of the offense may miss a couple of games because they have players that are prone to injury. Injury will be the only thing stopping this team from achieving the ultimate goal, a Super Bowl berth.
2. Dallas Cowboys
After an abysmal season in 2010 where expectations went from a Super Bowl berth in their home stadium to wondering if this team would finish with the leagues worst record, the Cowboys look to refresh that Cowboy swagger under their first full season under Head Coach, Jason Garrett. QB Tony Romo, who missed much of last season after a broken collarbone, is looking as sharp as he ever has. RB1 Felix Jones who was the backup to Marion Barber last year looks like a sleeper for a real breakout season as the team's starter. Another young standout WR2 Dez Bryant had a great rookie campaign in 2010 and also is primed to breakout in his sophomore season alongside well respected and talented WR1 Miles Austin. With TE Jason Witten also there to catch lots of passes, this offense should have no problem moving the ball. The defense is still anchored by All-Pro pass rusher, OLB DeMarcus Ware and should provide formidable defense last year; a real problem for the Cowboys in 2010. Though this looks like a team that has the talent to go far, I feel like they are still a year away from putting together a solid playoff run. This is still a team that makes too many mental mistakes at the wrong times and it will take them this year to get those issues pacthed up. You may even see them being more dominant in the later weeks, but I feel like this team gets off to a slow start.
3. New York Giants
This is a team that has the pedigree to achieve great things on offense, but it's the defense that is highly suspect. They still have a solid QB in Eli Manning and brilliant talent at the RB and WR positions with RB1 Ahmad Bradshaw and RB2 Brandon Jacobs and stars WR1 Hakeem Nicks and WR2 Mario Manningham. Even Kevin Boss is a serviceable TE, but when you look at all of the pre-season injuries that they have had to major defensive parts, they will struggle to keep the opposing offense off of the field. All-Pro DE Osi Umenyiora is unhappy with his contract and is also out for an indefinite amount of time, also premier DT Justin Tuck has injury issues. Six defensive players on the Giants have had season ending injuries which will affect their ability to stop opposing offenses. This is a team that will struggle to win eight games.
4. Washington Redskins
This is a team that should run the ball well behind a Mike Shanahan coached offensive line and Shanahan's patented zone run blocking scheme that has worked for decades no matter who is at running back. The biggest problem with this team, and it's a big problem to have, is that they don't have one decent QB to start. The entire preseason, Shanahan has mulled over which poison is least lethal, QB Rex Grossman or unproven starter QB John Beck. For now, Shanahan has gone with Grossman, but that could change at any moment. Free agent pick-up, RB1 Tim Hightower was a nice addition and he should pick up some nice gains on offense, but they won't be able to move the ball with either Grossman or Beck at the helm. Pass catchers WR1 Santana Moss and TE Chris Cooley will provide some relief for the mediocre QB play, but it won't be enough to get this team out of the NFC East cellar. On defense, they have the always incomparable, DeAngelo Hall, who set an NFL record last season with four interceptions in a single game, but he is only one of eleven guys on that field and it just won't be enough to beat anyone of significance. I see them winning one big division game, but that will be the highlight of their season.
NFC WEST 2011 Standings
1.San Francisco 49ers (9-7)
2.St. Louis Rams (8-8)
3.Arizona Cardinals (7-9)
4.Seattle Seahawks (4-12)
NFC WEST 2011 Analysis
1. San Francisco 49ers
In the land of the blind, the man with one eye rules. This thought can very well apply to the NFC West this year which is looking to shape up as the worst division in all of football once again in 2011. In 2011 though, I see the 49ers as being the "man with one eye" in this division. The team has a fresh start with rookie head coach and former NFL pro QB, Jim Harbaugh which should bode well for the development of QB Alex Smith. Smith has had an unprecedented 8 offensive coordinators in 7 years. This is his last chance in San Fran to make a name for himself. The addition of WR1 Braylon Edwards was a key pickup for this team that lacked in explosive passing plays in 2010. WR2 Michael Crabtree looks to improve upon his good sophomore season last year and, of course, the beast, Frank Gore will again be in the backfield, giving this offense the opportunity to break a TD run at any time. The defense took a hit with the loss of Aubrayo Franklin at NT and Takeo Spikes at ILB, but they have capable replacements on the D-Line and LB positions. Aside from the losses on D, the 49ers still have the best MLB in football, Patrick Willis. There aren't many reasons for the 49ers to win this division, but there are even fewer reasons why they should lose it.
2. St. Louis Rams
After a fine rookie season in 2010, sophomore QB Sam Bradford looks to improve on his rookie record setting season. I expect an improvement in Bradford's play, but there is only so much he can do with the very few tools he is provided catching the ball. WR1 Brandon Gibson is a nice deep threat, but is very one-dimensional. WR2 Mike Sims-Walker was picked up from Jacksonville, but the Rams needed a bigger splash in free agency than a guy who has had a couple of average seasons. Their lack of speed at the skill positions will be their biggest weakness on offense, but you can count on RB1 stud, Stephen Jackson, to create some additional offense on his own. The defense has serviceable defensive players DE Chris Long and MLB James Laurinaitus, but the rest of the starting defense could walk in a room with their name on their shirt and you still wouldn't know who they are.
3. Arizona Cardinals
The Cards made the biggest QB splash in the off-season of any team, trading for and signing highly touted QB Kevin Kolb who was backing up Michael Vick in Philly last year. Kolb looks like a nice fit to make a great QB/WR combo with the leagues most elite receiver, WR1 Larry Fitzgerald. They also improved at the TE position, signing former pro-bowler Todd Heap to be an outlet for Kolb. Aside from these three, the rest of the team has little skill or recognition. The WR2 is a second year player that had 24 catches last year, Andre Roberts. They lost their best running back to free agency leaving fumble-machine RB1 Beanie Wells to handle the brunt of the carries after he lost his job to Tim Hightower half-way through last season. The defense still has All-Pro Safety Adrian Wilson, who will make throwing deep on this team difficult and they have the veteran leadership of former Steeler LB, Joey Porter. They also have the quality play of DE Darnell Dockett giving them at least one formidable player on every level of the defense, but like the offense, once you get past those names, it's a bunch of unrecognizable players. This team would surely finish last in almost any division if they were not in the NFC West.
4. Seattle Seahawks
There are very few things you can point to on this team that are positive. The team lost it's veteran QB Matt Hasselbeck to the Titans and replaced him with the awful QB Tavaris Jackson. Returning to catch passes this year is star receiver WR1 Mike Williams who had a breakout season last year, but that was catching passes from Hasselbeck. They added coveted free agent WR2 Sidney Rice to the roster, but he is already going to miss the first game with a shoulder injury. "Beast Mode" returns this year with the powerful RB1 Marshawn Lynch, but with little happening in the passing game, defenses will surely load the box on Lynch, giving him little room to run. The only name worth mentioning on this defense is CB1 Marcus Trufant, who is actually a very skilled player at his position, but 99 out of 100 NFL fans couldn't tell you one thing about the other 10 starters on defense. This is a really bad team and possibly one of the worst in 2011. A year removed from winning the division last year, the Seahawks don't have a prayer at a division repeat.
Wednesday, February 2, 2011
FSU Seminoles, Jimbo Fisher Haul In Top Ranked Recruiting Class
Today, February 2, 2011 was "national signing day" for hundreds of aspiring prep football athletes that are realizing their dream of playing collegiate football. The idea behind the day is for top high school football talents to sign a letter of intent to the university they plan on attending and playing football for this coming fall. How this day has become somewhat of a media event is disturbing to me because it gives national recognition to very young men who have not accomplished anything yet. In fact, the undue attention can ruin young players who are too young to realize that they really haven't done anything worth national attention and has in many cases created an unjust ego in them and hurting their psychological edge coming into their newly chosen school. It has given past players the feeling that all they have to do is show up and universities will start chiseling statutes of them upon arrival. Despite the circus that is the media coverage of high school kids deciding what colleges they will attend, the result of this day is important.
Each year, throughout the high school football season in the fall, hundreds of prep analysts rate recruits on specific skills for their respective positions. Players are given two types of grades. One of them is a star-rating system. Players can be one star and up to 5 star talents, with five being the highest. They are also given grades on a scale of 1-100, with 100 being the highest. Players having a rating of 85 or higher are considered 5 star talents, 79 - 84 are considered 4 star and so on down the line. Universities rely on scouting departments and independent high school player evaluation companies, ESPNU being the largest of the many that do so, to determine who they should spend their time recruiting to play for their program.
Once the players have chosen their schools and made the committment, it's high school prep experts that crunch the number of high star and top rated recruits to create a collective grade on how that university's recruiting class ranks amongst all schools across the country. Simply put, the more high star and top recruits you land, the higher the grade you will be given by prep football analysts.
Now that the dust has settled on the 2011 signing day class of football players ready to take their talents to the collegiate level and the expert opinions are in, it has been announced that it is The Florida State University that has been named the 2011 top recruiting class in the U.S. Link: FSU brings in #1 recruiting class in 2011
FSU was able to nail down the #1 class by getting commitments from a nation leading 16 recruits that had a player ranking of 80 or above lead by the signing of a very rare talent, safety Karlos Williams out of Davenport, FL who is ranked nationally by ESPNU as the #1 safety in all of high school football and ranked #5 overall regardless of position. He was FSU's one and only 5 star recruit, but a huge one to land that put FSU's class at the top. FSU also lead the nation in 4 star recruits signed with a staggering 17, several more than any other school in the country. Twelve of those 4 star players are ESPNU 150 recruits(denoting they are on a list of the top 150 overall high school players), also leading the nation. For a full list and in-depth evaluation of their class, go to this link: Florida State Seminoles Recruit Class of 2011
When asked for an evaluation of FSU's recruiting class, ESPN college football expert, Kirk Herbstreit told ESPN that FSU did "an amazing job" and added that Seminole fans "have a lot to be excited about in the future and the Seminoles will be a national championship contender in 2011".
I, personally, will curb my enthusiasm being a graduate of Florida State University and will temper my excitement for what may be in the future of FSU football. Many football people call the NFL's Washington Redskins the "preseason champions" each year because they go out every season and land the best talent available. They haven't even won their division since 1999. That's just a lesson to be learned about acquiring all the best talent and what results it may yield. You can put a collection of the best talent on the field but if it can't play together as a team and it is not coached appropriately, it will just lead to expectations grossly not met.
If anyone can make a team out of great talent it is current FSU head coach, Jimbo Fisher. He has a history of winning everywhere he has been, including a ten win season at FSU in his first year as head coach and FSU's first ten win season since 2003. With this fresh group of high level high school talent coming in, FSU could be looking at a streak of 10+ win seasons in the immediate future and likely a BCS bowl game or National Championship game very soon.
Each year, throughout the high school football season in the fall, hundreds of prep analysts rate recruits on specific skills for their respective positions. Players are given two types of grades. One of them is a star-rating system. Players can be one star and up to 5 star talents, with five being the highest. They are also given grades on a scale of 1-100, with 100 being the highest. Players having a rating of 85 or higher are considered 5 star talents, 79 - 84 are considered 4 star and so on down the line. Universities rely on scouting departments and independent high school player evaluation companies, ESPNU being the largest of the many that do so, to determine who they should spend their time recruiting to play for their program.
Once the players have chosen their schools and made the committment, it's high school prep experts that crunch the number of high star and top rated recruits to create a collective grade on how that university's recruiting class ranks amongst all schools across the country. Simply put, the more high star and top recruits you land, the higher the grade you will be given by prep football analysts.
Now that the dust has settled on the 2011 signing day class of football players ready to take their talents to the collegiate level and the expert opinions are in, it has been announced that it is The Florida State University that has been named the 2011 top recruiting class in the U.S. Link: FSU brings in #1 recruiting class in 2011
FSU was able to nail down the #1 class by getting commitments from a nation leading 16 recruits that had a player ranking of 80 or above lead by the signing of a very rare talent, safety Karlos Williams out of Davenport, FL who is ranked nationally by ESPNU as the #1 safety in all of high school football and ranked #5 overall regardless of position. He was FSU's one and only 5 star recruit, but a huge one to land that put FSU's class at the top. FSU also lead the nation in 4 star recruits signed with a staggering 17, several more than any other school in the country. Twelve of those 4 star players are ESPNU 150 recruits(denoting they are on a list of the top 150 overall high school players), also leading the nation. For a full list and in-depth evaluation of their class, go to this link: Florida State Seminoles Recruit Class of 2011
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| Florida State's top recruit, Karlos Williams should help bolster a Seminole secondary that has been burned by the deep pass much of the last few years |
When asked for an evaluation of FSU's recruiting class, ESPN college football expert, Kirk Herbstreit told ESPN that FSU did "an amazing job" and added that Seminole fans "have a lot to be excited about in the future and the Seminoles will be a national championship contender in 2011".
I, personally, will curb my enthusiasm being a graduate of Florida State University and will temper my excitement for what may be in the future of FSU football. Many football people call the NFL's Washington Redskins the "preseason champions" each year because they go out every season and land the best talent available. They haven't even won their division since 1999. That's just a lesson to be learned about acquiring all the best talent and what results it may yield. You can put a collection of the best talent on the field but if it can't play together as a team and it is not coached appropriately, it will just lead to expectations grossly not met.
If anyone can make a team out of great talent it is current FSU head coach, Jimbo Fisher. He has a history of winning everywhere he has been, including a ten win season at FSU in his first year as head coach and FSU's first ten win season since 2003. With this fresh group of high level high school talent coming in, FSU could be looking at a streak of 10+ win seasons in the immediate future and likely a BCS bowl game or National Championship game very soon.
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