I'm not much of a gambler, but I know many of you are! So, this year I will be helping out my friends who like to make wagers versus the spread. Here, I will try provide some insight on how the matchups within the game can work to your advantage when making a wager. Making good picks is all about good information. Week 2 of the NFL season was a big week for some key player injuries, so gauging picks and final scores will come down to key inury factors this week and the weeks to come. Injuries are a part of the game and that's why you should be considering who is in and out of the games to make sound wagers. Here is how I fared in Week 2 and my overall record to date:
*WEEK 2 - RESULTS*
Winner: 12-4
Winner w/ Spread: 6-8-2
Over/Under: 9-6-1
Trifecta: 2
Perfect Team Score Predictions: 3 (Arizona, Tampa Bay, Minnesota)
Perfect Game Score Predictions: 1 (Tampa Bay @ Minnesota)
___________
*2011 Overall Record*
Winner: 22-10 (.688)
Winner w/ Spread: 14-16-2 (.467)
Over/Under: 16-14-2 (.533)
Trifecta: 6
Perfect Team Score Predictions: 6
Perfect Game Score Predictions: 2
NOTE: The team with a negative number in parenthesis "(-3)" next to their name is the favorite to win the matchup and the number represents how many points the favorite has to score more than the underdog to count as a winning bet. The over/under for the game is represented by a number in parenthesis with the letters o and u "(o/u 46)". The number represents the amount of points you are wagering whether or not the two team's combined score will be in excess of or short of. Official betting lines courtesy of www.footballlocks.com
So, without further adieu, the picks and analysis for NFL game wagers: Week 3...
San Francisco @ Cincinnati(-2.5) (o/u 40.5)
Savant Spread Pick: San Francisco to win ~ 20-16
Over/Under Pick: Under
Result: San Francisco 13 Cincinnati 8 / Total Score 21 /
Winner: + Spread: + O/U: +
*Trifecta*
Key Injuries: [SF] FB Moran Norris(Out), WR Braylon Edwards(Out); [CIN] WR Jordan Shipley(Out)
The 49ers come into the matchup off their first loss of the season at home to the Cowboys in what was a highly competitive game that was supposed to be an easy win for Dallas. The Bengals are coming off of a 2-point heartbreaking loss to the Broncos in Denver. The 49ers looked surprisingly good for a team that played without their No. 1 and No. 2 WR's for almost the entire game and gave the high-powered Cowboys offense some problems that they weren't expected to. Cincinnati looked awful against a Broncos team that is set to win all of 4 or 5 games all season.
There is no question that the loss of Braylon Edwards will have an effect on the passing game for the 49ers but backup receivers picked up the slack last week and breakout player, Ted Ginn Jr. is itching for another big kick return and will factor more in the passing game this week. The running game will be effected by the loss of Moran Norris, but Frank Gore is more than capable of making big plays with little blocking. There is little positive to take from last week's loss to Denver except the exceptional play of rookie QB Andy Dalton. Cedric Benson's announced suspension that starts next week may prove to be a distraction as well. In the end, the 49er run defense, which is one of the best in the NFL will break down Benson and the running game and allow the secondary an extra man or two to keep A.J. Green, the only receiver of consequence for Cincy, in check down the field.
Buffalo vs. New England(-8) (o/u 53.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Buffalo with the points; New England to win ~ 35-28
Over/Under Pick: Over
Result: Buffalo 34 New England 31 / Total Score 65 /
Winner: - Spread: + O/U: +
Key Injuries: [BUF] WR Roscoe Parrish(Questionable), CB Terrence McGee(Questionable); [NE] TE Aaron Hernanez(Doubtful), TE Dan Gronkowski(Probable), DT Albert Haynesworth(Questionable), C Dan Koppen(Out for Season)
Buffalo comes off of a week 2 thrashing of the dismantled KC Chiefs and the Patriots come off a big week 2 win against the NFL's number one offense and defense from 2010 in the San Diego Chargers. There's no question that both of these teams can score lots of points, an unusual place for the Bills to find themselves in recent years. New England has shown the dominance on offense that everyone has gotten accustomed to over the last decade, but what most people are not noticing is that their secondary is very poor thus far in 2011.
This game will very likely play out as a major shootout between two very good offenses. Bills QB Ryan Fitzpatrick is coming of age and is finding his new favorite weapon, Steve Johnson at WR. Expect a big game from RB1 Fred Jackson also. Though they will put up points, they just won't be able to keep up with the scorching pace that the New England Patriots are putting up on offense against some very good NFL defenses in the last two weeks. I expect the Pats to keep a solid lead throughout, but look for a late score from the Bills to bring the game to within the 8 point spread.
Houston @ New Orleans(-4) (o/u 53)
Savant Spread Pick: New Orleans and the points to win ~ 32-24
Over/Under Pick: Over
Result: Houston 33 New Orleans 40 / Total Score 77 /
Winner: + Spread: + O/U: +
*Trifecta*
Key Injuries: [HOU] RB Arian Foster(Doubtful) LB DeMeco Ryans(Questionable) WR Kevin Walter(Questionable); [NO] WR Marques Colston(Out), CB Tracy Porter(Questionable), LB Jonathon Vilma(Questionable)
The Texans come into this week coming off of a big win over the sliding Miami Dolphins in Miami and the Saints are coming off of a beat-down of the Chicago Bears. The most important factor in this game will be the health of Arian Foster, which is majorly in doubt on this Friday morning. This outcome assumes he doesn't play on Sunday, which is expected.
Houston has had a nice season thus far on the offensive side of the ball, but they are yet to face a defense of the caliber of the New Orleans Saints, in the Superdome where that D plays it's best football. If we know anything about the Bears, it's that they give up sacks, but the Saints D was ferocious in its pursuit of Jay Cutler, racking up a number of sacks and knockdowns. They'll get after Matt Schaub in the 'Dome and get the Texan offense off schedule. Expect Andre Johnson to get his numbers, but Drew and new choice weapon Darren Sproles and Co. are going to light up the scoreboard. The Texans are 26th against the run. Pierre Thomas and Mark Ingram could also have very big days. Saints roll.
New York(N) @ Philadelphia(-8) (o/u 48.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Philadelphia and the points to win ~ 31-17
Over/Under Pick: Under
Result: New York(N) 29 Philadelphia 16 / Total Score 35 /
Winner: - Spread: - O/U: +
Key Injuries: [NYG] WR Prince Amukamara(Questionable), WR Mario Manningham(Questionable), WR Domenik Hixon(Out for Season), TE Kevin Boss(Questionable), Richard Seymour(Questionable); [PHI] QB Michael Vick(Questionable)
The Eagles come into this game off a tough loss to the Falcons in Atlanta where the Eagles played most of the game without a concussed Michael Vick. The Giants come off a Monday Night Football victory over the Rams where the score of the game was really no indication of just how poorly they played. Though the Giants took care of the Rams, it took three field goals by the Rams inside the 5 yard line and a fluke lateral play that was mishandled and returned for a defensive TD. For all intensive purposes, the Giants were outplayed by the Rams, behind Sam Bradford who had his first 300 yard game of his career.
The Eagles were the opposite of the Giants last week. They lost a game in which they outplayed their opponent in Atlanta, yet lost the game greatly due to the fact that they lost the league's most dynamic player, Michael Vick to a concussion in the game. His backup, Kafka, did a nice job, but it definitely cost them a win. The Eagles looked too good in their loss and the Giants looked too poor in their win to have any faith the Giants can pull off a win thsi week. Add that to the fact that they are decimated by a flurry of injuries to starters, including their WR2 Mario Manningham who has a concussion and Domenik Hixon, who tore his ACL last week. Osi Umenyiora is still unlikely to play as well. Eagles have too much firepower and the Giants don't have enough healthy bodies to stop it. Eagles win big.
Miami @ Cleveland(-2.5) (o/u 41)
Savant Spread Pick: Miami to win ~ 24-13
Over/Under Pick: Under
Result: Miami 17 Cleveland 16 / Total Score 33 /
Winner: - Spread: - O/U: +
Key Injuries: [MIA] Vontae Davis(Questionable); [CLE] None
Miami comes into this game off of a tough loss at home at the hands of the Houston Texans and Cleveland comes into the game coming off of a win over the hapless Colts in Indy. Miami is a difficult team to figure out as they exploded on offense against the Patriots in a loss and then laid down on offense against a very beatable Houston defense. Rookie RB Daniel Thomas now figures into the offense after his first career 100-yard rushing game last week and I expect him to be a factor in this game and the rest of the season. Miami QB Chad Henne has been a highly under-rated player this season mostly because of the Dolphins two losses in two games.
Cleveland is a team that has proven nothing at 1-1 with a win over a Colts team that will be lucky to win 4 games and a LOSS against the Broncos who will be lucky to win 4 games. There is little to say positive about this team at this point of the season. QB Colt McCoy is still a work in progress to becoming even a decent NFL QB and they still don't have any threats at wideout that scare any secondaries. Teams can key on RB1 Peyton Hillis because he is the only potent weapon they possess. Hillis alone can bowl through eight-man fronts, but not that effectively against the higher rated LBs in the league. Miami will have enough firepower to throttle Hillis and the Browns won't offer much more pop outside of a few big plays from TE Ben Watson. I see no reason the desperate Dolphins won't pull this one out against a Browns team that is inferior in talent.
Denver @ Tennessee(-6) (o/u 42.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Tennessee and the points to win ~ 24-13
Over/Under Pick: Under
Result: Denver 14 Tennessee 17 / Total Score 31 /
Winner: + Spread: - O/U: +
Key Injuries: [DEN] WR Eddie Royal(Out), WR Demaryius Thomas(Out), DE Elvis Dumervil(Out), CB Champ Bailey(Questionable), RB Knowshon Moreno(Questionable) None; [TEN] S Chris Hope(Questionable)
Denver enters this game off of an unexpected win versus the Browns at home and the Titans come in from a big upset win over the Ravens. The Broncos simply have too many key players hurt and banged up to compete with the Titans quick-strike offense and solid D. RB1 Chris Johnson and WR1 Kenny Britt have both proven over time that they are capable of taking a run or catch the distance on any given play. The Broncos are a team that have trouble defending against the big play. Chris Johnson should record his first 100 yard game. Hasselbeck will throw for 350+ yards. No reason to think this will be very competitive. Tennessee wins handily in this one.
Minnesota vs. Detroit(-3) (o/u 45)
Savant Spread Pick: Minnesota to win ~ 26-23
Over/Under Pick: Over
Result: Minnesota 23 Detroit 26 / Total Score 49 /
Winner: - Spread: push O/U: +
Jacksonville @ Carolina(-3.5) (o/u 43)
Savant Spread Pick: Carolina and the points to win ~ 31-10
Over/Under Pick: Under
Result: Jacksonville 10 Carolina 16 / Total Score 26 /
Winner: + Spread: + O/U: +
Kansas City @ San Diego(-14.5) (o/u 44.5)
Savant Spread Pick: San Diego and the points to win ~ 44-6
Over/Under Pick:Over
Result: Kansas City 17 San Diego 20 / Total Score 37 /
Winner: + Spread: - O/U: -
Oakland @ New York(A)(-3) (o/u 41)
Savant Spread Pick: Oakand to win ~ 16-13
Over/Under Pick: Under
Result: Oakland 34 New York(A) 24 / Total Score 58 /
Winner: + Spread: + O/U: -
St. Louis vs. Baltimore(-5) (o/u 42)
Savant Spread Pick: Baltimore and the points to win ~ 24-16
Over/Under Pick: Under
Result: St. Louis 7 Baltimore 37 / Total Score 44 /
Winner: + Spread: + O/U: -
Atlanta @ Tampa Bay(-1.5) (o/u 45.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Atlanta to win ~ 26-21
Over/Under Pick: Over
Result: Atlanta 13 Tampa Bay 16 / Total Score 29 /
Winner: - Spread: - O/U: -
Seattle vs. Arizona(-3.5) (o/u 43.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Seattle to win ~ 19-17
Over/Under Pick: Under
Result: Seattle 13 Arizona 10 / Total Score 23 /
Winner: + Spread: + O/U: +
*Trifecta*
Chicago vs. Green Bay(-4) (o/u 45.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Chicago to win ~ 13-10
Over/Under Pick: Under
Result: Chicago 17 Green Bay 27 / Total Score 44 /
Winner: - Spread: - O/U: +
Indianapolis vs. Pittsburgh(-10.5) (o/u 39.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Pittsburgh and the points to win ~ 32-3
Over/Under Pick: Under
Result: Indianapolis 20 Pittsburgh 23 / Total Score 43 /
Winner: + Spread: - O/U: -
Washington @ Dallas(-4.5) (o/u 45.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Washington to win ~ 17-16
Over/Under Pick: Under
Result: Washington 16 New England 18 / Total Score 34 /
Winner: - Spread: - O/U: +
I hope this guide proved to be helpful! Look out for my picks each and every week of the NFL
Showing posts with label Spread. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Spread. Show all posts
Sunday, September 25, 2011
Sunday, September 11, 2011
NFL 2011 - Betting Lines - Who to Pick Versus the Spread: Week 1
I'm not much of a gambler, but I know many of you are! So, this year I will be helping out my friends who like to make wagers versus the spread. Here, I will try provide some insight on how the matchups within the game can work to your advantage when making a wager. Making good picks is all about good information. So, without further adieu, the picks and analysis for wagers versus the spread for the NFL: Week 1...
*WEEK 1 - RESULTS UPDATE*
Winner: 10-6
Winner w/ Spread: 8-8
Over/Under: 7-8-1
Trifecta: 3
Perfect Score Predictions: 3 (Atlanta, St. Louis, Detroit)
Perfect Game Predictions: 1 (Atlanta v. St. Louis)
NOTE: The Green Bay/New Orleans game was played Thursday, September 8th so no pick or analysis will be given, but for the record, I had Green Bay winning by 7 and both teams scoring often so I took the over. Nice start, huh?
NOTE 2: The team with a negative number in parenthesis "(-3)" next to their name is the favorite to win the matchup and the number represents how many points the favorite has to score more than the underdog to count as a winning bet. The over/under for the game is represented by a number in parenthesis with the letters o and u "(o/u 46)". The number represents the amount of points you are wagering whether or not the two team's combined score will be in excess of or short of. Official betting lines courtesy of www.footballlocks.com
Pittsburgh @ Baltimore(-1.5) (o/u 36)
Savant Spread Pick: Pittsburgh to win ~ 16-14
Over/Under Pick: Under
Result: Baltimore 35 Pittsburgh 7 / Total Score 42 /
Winner: - Spread: - O/U: -
This game is always very physical as these teams have a downright hatred for one another. When these teams play, it's lights out collision-making on every play. These teams have hard hitters that hit their hardest when they play each other. Injury is always a high risk in these games because of intensified aggression of the rivalry. Both teams will have mental mistakes as the lockout prevented them from having much time to gel in a truncated off-season. Most of the familiar names of recent years are all still with their teams for this game as neither team did much in free-agency so you can expect a similar result to what has happened in years past in this one. These factors are why I'm taking the under at 36. These games typically end in 13-10 fashion, so under is a safe play.
This early in the season, great defenses usually get the better of good offenses. Because of this, and the Ravens star defensive players being just another year older in the twilight of their careers, the Steelers should win this game by at least a field goal.
Detroit @ Tampa Bay(-1) (o/u 42.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Detroit to win ~ 27-17
Over/Under Pick: Over
Result: Detroit 27 Tampa Bay 20 / Total Score 47 /
Winner: + Spread: + O/U: +
*Trifecta*
I know it's on the road and a long flight to Tampa from Michigan, but the Lions are a team ready to prove people wrong and they have the arsenal to do it. This Lions team is a whole other beast when it has it's signal caller, Matthew Stafford at the helm. This season, Stafford to Calvin Johnson will be one of the leagues best duos and they will score lots of points with their high-octane offense. The Bucs are a team that will take a step back this year. They were not as good as advertised last year. Four of their 10 wins in 2010 came in a sweep of the worst division in football, the NFC West.
Those preposterously large defensive lineman on the Lions(Suh and Fairley) are going to plug up running lanes and TB running back, LeGarrett Blount is an in-between the tackles runner. Lions should neutralize the running game and make the Bucs more one-dimensional. The Bucs will put up a couple of TD's; the Lions will put up even more TD's. This is why I took the Lions and the over. This isn't a close game to me.
Chicago vs. Atlanta(-2) (o/u 40.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Atlanta and the points to win ~ 24-13
Over/Under Pick: Under
Result: Chicago 30 Atlanta 12 / Total Score 42 /
Winner: - Spread: - O/U: -
This appears to be one of the easier picks of the week, as I see it. Atlanta has very real Super Bowl aspirations and the Bears will be lucky to finish third in their division this season. The Bears gave up the most sacks in the NFL last season. Their strange way of remedying this is to cut their only Pro-Bowl offensive lineman(C Olin Kruetz) and signed, nor drafted anyone worthwhile to replace him. So the worst O-line in football only got less talented and less experienced. Not only do you have that problem, but they had one of the worst receiving corps. in the NFL last year and they only signed Cowboy reject, Roy Williams who was cut by Dallas because he was way overpaid, so they are still bad in that area.
This pick isn't even as much about how good the Falcons are, and they will be very good, but more about how disappointing the Bears will be in 2011. Most games the Bears played in last year were very low scoring and I don't think even 28 points by the Falcons will be enough to help the bad Bears offense help the game total eclipse the 41 point mark so I'd say under is a safe bet.
Buffalo @ Kansas City(-5.5) (o/u 39.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Buffalo with the points; Kansas City to win ~ 21-14
Over/Under Pick: Under
Result: Buffalo 41 Kansas City 7 / Total Score 48 /
Winner: - Spread: + O/U: -
It wouldn't be surprising to me if Buffalo went right in to KC and beat them on their home-field, but it's because of that tremendous home-field advantage the Chiefs maintain, I've got them winning by just a field goal, if they win at all. KC QB Matt Cassell sustained a rib injury in the final preseason game a week ago and was questionable for the game so he will be less than 100%. Jamaal Charles will get his run of yards, but without a completely healthy Cassell and Dwaye Bowe disappearing for long stretches of the season last year, I can't have any confidence in the Chiefs offense.
The Bills have a serviceable QB in Ryan Fitzpatrick and emerging start WR Stevie Johnson along with two headed spear Rb committee; Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller. In the end, the Bills offense just does a little more than the Chiefs offense, but it might be a big home-field play that puts the Chiefs just over the Bills, but certainly by less than 6 points.
Indianapolis @ Houston(-9) (o/u 44)
Savant Spread Pick: Indianapolis with the points; Houston to win ~ 28-20
Over/Under Pick: Over
Result: Houston 34 Indianapolis 7 / Total Score 41 /
Winner: + Spread: - O/U: -
With this spread it is easy to see that gamblers are predicting gloom and doom for the Colts without Peyton Manning in the lineup. Though I happen to agree with them, I don't agree to that level of doom. The Colts will be below average without Peyton, but they could have a worse starter filling in than Kerry Collins. The team, even without Peyton, still has a ton of talent all over the offense. Collins just needs to delivery the ball and they can do the rest.
It won't be nearly enough to keep up with one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL in the Texans. Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson are going to have a field day against an average Colts secondary. The Texans should lead by more than the spread for most of the game, but will allow some meaningless points at the end when they have the game in hand and it will be just enough to both uncover the spread and make Indy a winning bet versus the spread and enough to get over the o/u hump and make the over a winning bet.
St. Louis vs. Philadelphia(-4) (o/u 44)
Savant Spread Pick: Philadelphia and the points to win ~ 31-13
Over/Under Pick: Over
Result: Philadelphia 31 St. Louis 13 *Perfect Prediction!* / Total Score 44 /
Winner: + Spread: + O/U: push
One of the greatest disadvantages a home team can ever have is when they play in a dome and they have relatively little team speed and they are playing a team with one of the NFL's fastest offenses. Philly's blazing-fast receivers, not to mention the speed of QB Michael Vick, will torch the Rams "no-name" defense on their home carpet. Sam Bradford is young and still struggles against a fast blitzing pass-rush, which the Eagles are known to be the best at in the league. This won't even be close. Take Philly and the over with great confidence.
Cincinnati @ Cleveland(-6.5) (o/u 35)
Savant Spread Pick: Cleveland and the points to win ~ 14-6
Over/Under Pick: Under
Result: Cleveland 27 Cleveland 17 / Total Score 44 /
Winner: - Spread: - O/U: -
This is the throw-away game of the week, but it's the throw-away game that is many times the hardest to bet on because you don't know what to expect. In this case, I think the decision is not too difficult. Nothing screams offensive impotence more than a rookie QB making his first career start. It almost typically ends with that team not scoring a TD the entire game no matter how good that team's running backs are(and the Bengals don't have much at RB).
Cleveland, sadly, is not in a much better position, however they have the QB with more experience(by 1 year) and the much more dominating RB, Madden '12 cover-boy Peyton Hillis. The Browns also have the clearly superior defense, actually a strong point on their team. I wouldn't be surprised if the Browns shut-out the Bengals, but for the sake of a turnover or two deep in their own territory, I think Bengals squeak out a couple of field goals and nothing more. This makes taking the under a very easy wager to me.
Tennessee @ Jacksonville(-1) (o/u 37)
Savant Spread Pick: Tennessee to win ~ 23-17
Over/Under Pick: Under
Result: Jacksonville 16 Tennessee 13 / Total Score 29 /
Winner: - Spread: - O/U: +
Career NFL journeyman, QB Luke McCown gets a very surprise start in week 1 for the Jaguars. The Jags inauspiciously fired their franchise QB, David Garrard, just a week before the regular season in what looked like a money saving move by the team. Though no one can quite understand this move, it does tangibly downgrade the whole offense. They still have elite RB Maurice Jones-Drew, but he will be faced with lots of eight man fronts with no threat of great QB play by McCown.
Tennessee, of course, still has all-world RB Chris Johnson who is capable of making the homerun breakout for a TD every time he touches the ball. The Titans can expect good, consistent play from new QB Matt Hasselbeck throwing to stud wideout Kenny Britt. The Jags will only score points based on the quality of play from Mo-Jo, which I expect to be high. Tennessee still wins easily. The Jags practically announced they were giving up on 2011 when they cut Garrard.
Washington v. New York(N)(-2.5) (o/u 39.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Washington to win 24-21
Over/Under Pick:Over
Result: Washington 28 New York(N) 14 / Total Score 42 /
Winner: + Spread: + O/U: +
*Trifecta *
Some games have an outside factor that can have a profound effect on he outcome of the game, like when the heavy underdog Saints routed the heavily favored Falcons in the New Orleans Super Dome reopening after hurricane Katrina. I think this game will have that factor. Emotions will be running very high as the two cities that were directly hit by the attacks of 9/11 play each other on the 10th anniversary of the tragedy.
Though the Giants are the more talented team, they have 6 defensive players already on season-ending injured reserve. But more importantly, that D.C. crowd is going to be outrageous as they are running high with emotion from the anniversary. Home crowd makes the difference in this one. I'm taking Washington and the over because of the Giants suspect defense and the emergence of new Redskins RB Tim Hightower looking real good in preseason. We know the Giants can and will score points on offense. The over here feels like a lock to me.
Carolina @ Arizona(-6.5) (o/u 37.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Arizona and the points to win ~ 27-3
Over/Under Pick: Under
Result: Arizona 28 Carolina 21 / Total Score 49 /
Winner: + Spread: + O/U: -
As was discussed about rookie QB's making their first NF start earlier, we have another for the Panthers in QB Cam Newton. He won the job fair and square in the preseason, but it was mostly because he had no competition to fight with for the job. Cam may be a good dual-threat QB someday, but it's not in his first NFL start. I want to call a shutout in this one, but alas Arizona will probably find a way to have at least one turnover in their territory giving the Panthers a chance to go 3 and out and kick a long field goal. This is a no-brainer, Cards and the under.
Seattle @ San Francisco(-5.5) (o/u 37.5)
Savant Spread Pick: San Francisco and the points to win ~ 21-10
Over/Under Pick: Under
Result: San Francisco 33 Seattle 17 / Total Score 50 /
Winner: + Spread: + O/U: -
San Francisco is no prize these days, but few teams have taken a plunge like the Seahawks. New QB Tavaris Jackson has looked atrocious in the preseason and newly acquired deep threat WR Sidney Rice will miss the game(shoulder). They also have injuries at offensive line.
The 49ers are coming in to the game with most everyone healthy and a new look offense under new coach Jim Harbaugh and their own deep threat WR acquisition, Braylon Edwards. The only player of any significance on the Seattle offense is their running back Marshawn Lynch, but the 49ers have the best middle LB in football, Patrick Willis, to stuff those running lanes. It's fair to say the 49ers will cover the spread, it's more a certainty they will combine for under 38 points.
Minnesota @ San Diego(-8.5) (o/u 42)
Savant Spread Pick: San Diego and the points to win ~ 34-13
Over/Under Pick: Over
Result: San Diego 24 Minnesota 17 / Total Score 41 /
Winner: + Spread: - O/U: -
One team last year had the #1 offense and the #1 defense in the NFL in 2010; it was the San Diego Chargers. A feat already rarely done, but nonetheless done with their greatest offensive weapon, TE Antonio Gates, and superstar WR Vincent Jackson missing most of the season! They now have both guys back and healthy and will only add to the arsenal that QB Philip Rivers has at his disposal.
Minnesota acquired veteran QB Donovan McNabb to fill their "Favre Void" and he's not a bad pickup, but it is not McNabb that will make the Vikings a sub-par team this year, it will be the defense. You can always count on all-world RB Adrian Peterson to show up on Sundays and dominate, but with an average receiving corps., the Vikings will be a run-oriented team. San Diego will prove to be way too much for them to handle and this should be a blowout.
Dallas @ New York(A)(-6.) (o/u 40.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Dallas with the points; New York to win ~ 21-16
Over/Under Pick: Under
Result: New York(A) 27 Dallas 24 / Total Score 51 /
Winner: + Spread: + O/U: +
*Trifecta*
The Jets are one tough cookie to beat at home and Dallas showed signs of improvement late last year, but have lost some players coming into this season, mostly because of salary cap casualties. Dallas has a pretty nice offense with QB Tony Romo, TE Jason Witten and stud WR's Miles Austin and Dez Bryant, but the Jets are a better defense, finishing ranked near the top in 2010.
Dallas has a starter in the secondary out for the game and this should give WR Santonio Homes some extra space to squeeze in some more yardage that will make the difference in the game. Dallas will be able to keep the running game of Shonn Green and LaDanian Tomlinson somewhat in-check, but I feel like they are going to get burned a few times for big chunks in the passing game. This is a tricky one, but my gut tells me to take Dallas with the points and take the under.
Miami vs. New England (-7) (o/u 45.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Miami with the points; New England to win ~ 26-20
Over/Under Pick: Over
Result: New England 38 Miami 24 / Total Score 62 /
Winner: + Spread: - O/U: +
The Patriots are a team that is finally showing some cracks in it's marbled "dynasty" this year. Acquiring misfits DT Albert Haynesworth and WR Chad Ochocinco looked to be a bit of a desperation move for a team that is not very good at the WR or DT positions. It appears that neither move is really panning out, too. When you have Tom Brady you always have a chance, no matter who you put out there, but Brady didn't win those Super Bowls on his own. This will be one of the worst supporting casts he has seen in a number of years.
It's rare to be a 7 point dog at home, but leave it to the Dolphins to manage this. After a failed attempt to trade for Kyle Orton, they are still stuck with QB Chad Henne. They took a downgrade at the RB position, letting go Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams to sign unproven every-down back, Reggie Bush and drafted rookie Daniel Thomas to back him up. Lucky for the Dolphins, they have possibly the best kicker in the NFL in Dan Carpenter. He can bail them out some when they stall near the 40 yard line and drop those long field goals he did many times last year. The Pats are good enough to win this game over the Dolphins, but they won't dominate them like they have in years past.
Oakland @ Denver(-3) (o/u 40.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Denver and the points to win ~ 24-20
Over/Under Pick: Over
Result: Oakland 23 Denver 20 / Total Score 43 /
Winner: - Spread: - O/U: +
The most under-rated QB in the NFL is a guy who threw for over 3,600 yards and 20 TD's last year. That QB is Denver's Kyle Orton. He's back with his favorite weapon, WR Brandon Lloyd who was one of the NFLs' top receivers. Denver is not going to be very good this year, but they can surely take advantage of an Oakland secondary that will be without Nnamdi Asomugha, whom they lost to the Eagles in the free-agent market. Oakland will be able to run the ball effectively against the Broncos porous defense, but the air attack with Kyle Orton will prevail and look for a two TD game from Willis McGahee for Denver. These teams have above average offenses and bad defenses, wager the over with confidence.
I hope this guide proved to be helpful! Look out for my picks each and every week of the NFL season.
*WEEK 1 - RESULTS UPDATE*
Winner: 10-6
Winner w/ Spread: 8-8
Over/Under: 7-8-1
Trifecta: 3
Perfect Score Predictions: 3 (Atlanta, St. Louis, Detroit)
Perfect Game Predictions: 1 (Atlanta v. St. Louis)
NOTE: The Green Bay/New Orleans game was played Thursday, September 8th so no pick or analysis will be given, but for the record, I had Green Bay winning by 7 and both teams scoring often so I took the over. Nice start, huh?
NOTE 2: The team with a negative number in parenthesis "(-3)" next to their name is the favorite to win the matchup and the number represents how many points the favorite has to score more than the underdog to count as a winning bet. The over/under for the game is represented by a number in parenthesis with the letters o and u "(o/u 46)". The number represents the amount of points you are wagering whether or not the two team's combined score will be in excess of or short of. Official betting lines courtesy of www.footballlocks.com
Pittsburgh @ Baltimore(-1.5) (o/u 36)
Savant Spread Pick: Pittsburgh to win ~ 16-14
Over/Under Pick: Under
Result: Baltimore 35 Pittsburgh 7 / Total Score 42 /
Winner: - Spread: - O/U: -
This game is always very physical as these teams have a downright hatred for one another. When these teams play, it's lights out collision-making on every play. These teams have hard hitters that hit their hardest when they play each other. Injury is always a high risk in these games because of intensified aggression of the rivalry. Both teams will have mental mistakes as the lockout prevented them from having much time to gel in a truncated off-season. Most of the familiar names of recent years are all still with their teams for this game as neither team did much in free-agency so you can expect a similar result to what has happened in years past in this one. These factors are why I'm taking the under at 36. These games typically end in 13-10 fashion, so under is a safe play.
This early in the season, great defenses usually get the better of good offenses. Because of this, and the Ravens star defensive players being just another year older in the twilight of their careers, the Steelers should win this game by at least a field goal.
Detroit @ Tampa Bay(-1) (o/u 42.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Detroit to win ~ 27-17
Over/Under Pick: Over
Result: Detroit 27 Tampa Bay 20 / Total Score 47 /
Winner: + Spread: + O/U: +
*Trifecta*
I know it's on the road and a long flight to Tampa from Michigan, but the Lions are a team ready to prove people wrong and they have the arsenal to do it. This Lions team is a whole other beast when it has it's signal caller, Matthew Stafford at the helm. This season, Stafford to Calvin Johnson will be one of the leagues best duos and they will score lots of points with their high-octane offense. The Bucs are a team that will take a step back this year. They were not as good as advertised last year. Four of their 10 wins in 2010 came in a sweep of the worst division in football, the NFC West.
Those preposterously large defensive lineman on the Lions(Suh and Fairley) are going to plug up running lanes and TB running back, LeGarrett Blount is an in-between the tackles runner. Lions should neutralize the running game and make the Bucs more one-dimensional. The Bucs will put up a couple of TD's; the Lions will put up even more TD's. This is why I took the Lions and the over. This isn't a close game to me.
Chicago vs. Atlanta(-2) (o/u 40.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Atlanta and the points to win ~ 24-13
Over/Under Pick: Under
Result: Chicago 30 Atlanta 12 / Total Score 42 /
Winner: - Spread: - O/U: -
This appears to be one of the easier picks of the week, as I see it. Atlanta has very real Super Bowl aspirations and the Bears will be lucky to finish third in their division this season. The Bears gave up the most sacks in the NFL last season. Their strange way of remedying this is to cut their only Pro-Bowl offensive lineman(C Olin Kruetz) and signed, nor drafted anyone worthwhile to replace him. So the worst O-line in football only got less talented and less experienced. Not only do you have that problem, but they had one of the worst receiving corps. in the NFL last year and they only signed Cowboy reject, Roy Williams who was cut by Dallas because he was way overpaid, so they are still bad in that area.
This pick isn't even as much about how good the Falcons are, and they will be very good, but more about how disappointing the Bears will be in 2011. Most games the Bears played in last year were very low scoring and I don't think even 28 points by the Falcons will be enough to help the bad Bears offense help the game total eclipse the 41 point mark so I'd say under is a safe bet.
Buffalo @ Kansas City(-5.5) (o/u 39.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Buffalo with the points; Kansas City to win ~ 21-14
Over/Under Pick: Under
Result: Buffalo 41 Kansas City 7 / Total Score 48 /
Winner: - Spread: + O/U: -
It wouldn't be surprising to me if Buffalo went right in to KC and beat them on their home-field, but it's because of that tremendous home-field advantage the Chiefs maintain, I've got them winning by just a field goal, if they win at all. KC QB Matt Cassell sustained a rib injury in the final preseason game a week ago and was questionable for the game so he will be less than 100%. Jamaal Charles will get his run of yards, but without a completely healthy Cassell and Dwaye Bowe disappearing for long stretches of the season last year, I can't have any confidence in the Chiefs offense.
The Bills have a serviceable QB in Ryan Fitzpatrick and emerging start WR Stevie Johnson along with two headed spear Rb committee; Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller. In the end, the Bills offense just does a little more than the Chiefs offense, but it might be a big home-field play that puts the Chiefs just over the Bills, but certainly by less than 6 points.
Indianapolis @ Houston(-9) (o/u 44)
Savant Spread Pick: Indianapolis with the points; Houston to win ~ 28-20
Over/Under Pick: Over
Result: Houston 34 Indianapolis 7 / Total Score 41 /
Winner: + Spread: - O/U: -
With this spread it is easy to see that gamblers are predicting gloom and doom for the Colts without Peyton Manning in the lineup. Though I happen to agree with them, I don't agree to that level of doom. The Colts will be below average without Peyton, but they could have a worse starter filling in than Kerry Collins. The team, even without Peyton, still has a ton of talent all over the offense. Collins just needs to delivery the ball and they can do the rest.
It won't be nearly enough to keep up with one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL in the Texans. Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson are going to have a field day against an average Colts secondary. The Texans should lead by more than the spread for most of the game, but will allow some meaningless points at the end when they have the game in hand and it will be just enough to both uncover the spread and make Indy a winning bet versus the spread and enough to get over the o/u hump and make the over a winning bet.
St. Louis vs. Philadelphia(-4) (o/u 44)
Savant Spread Pick: Philadelphia and the points to win ~ 31-13
Over/Under Pick: Over
Result: Philadelphia 31 St. Louis 13 *Perfect Prediction!* / Total Score 44 /
Winner: + Spread: + O/U: push
One of the greatest disadvantages a home team can ever have is when they play in a dome and they have relatively little team speed and they are playing a team with one of the NFL's fastest offenses. Philly's blazing-fast receivers, not to mention the speed of QB Michael Vick, will torch the Rams "no-name" defense on their home carpet. Sam Bradford is young and still struggles against a fast blitzing pass-rush, which the Eagles are known to be the best at in the league. This won't even be close. Take Philly and the over with great confidence.
Cincinnati @ Cleveland(-6.5) (o/u 35)
Savant Spread Pick: Cleveland and the points to win ~ 14-6
Over/Under Pick: Under
Result: Cleveland 27 Cleveland 17 / Total Score 44 /
Winner: - Spread: - O/U: -
This is the throw-away game of the week, but it's the throw-away game that is many times the hardest to bet on because you don't know what to expect. In this case, I think the decision is not too difficult. Nothing screams offensive impotence more than a rookie QB making his first career start. It almost typically ends with that team not scoring a TD the entire game no matter how good that team's running backs are(and the Bengals don't have much at RB).
Cleveland, sadly, is not in a much better position, however they have the QB with more experience(by 1 year) and the much more dominating RB, Madden '12 cover-boy Peyton Hillis. The Browns also have the clearly superior defense, actually a strong point on their team. I wouldn't be surprised if the Browns shut-out the Bengals, but for the sake of a turnover or two deep in their own territory, I think Bengals squeak out a couple of field goals and nothing more. This makes taking the under a very easy wager to me.
Tennessee @ Jacksonville(-1) (o/u 37)
Savant Spread Pick: Tennessee to win ~ 23-17
Over/Under Pick: Under
Result: Jacksonville 16 Tennessee 13 / Total Score 29 /
Winner: - Spread: - O/U: +
Career NFL journeyman, QB Luke McCown gets a very surprise start in week 1 for the Jaguars. The Jags inauspiciously fired their franchise QB, David Garrard, just a week before the regular season in what looked like a money saving move by the team. Though no one can quite understand this move, it does tangibly downgrade the whole offense. They still have elite RB Maurice Jones-Drew, but he will be faced with lots of eight man fronts with no threat of great QB play by McCown.
Tennessee, of course, still has all-world RB Chris Johnson who is capable of making the homerun breakout for a TD every time he touches the ball. The Titans can expect good, consistent play from new QB Matt Hasselbeck throwing to stud wideout Kenny Britt. The Jags will only score points based on the quality of play from Mo-Jo, which I expect to be high. Tennessee still wins easily. The Jags practically announced they were giving up on 2011 when they cut Garrard.
Washington v. New York(N)(-2.5) (o/u 39.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Washington to win 24-21
Over/Under Pick:Over
Result: Washington 28 New York(N) 14 / Total Score 42 /
Winner: + Spread: + O/U: +
*Trifecta *
Some games have an outside factor that can have a profound effect on he outcome of the game, like when the heavy underdog Saints routed the heavily favored Falcons in the New Orleans Super Dome reopening after hurricane Katrina. I think this game will have that factor. Emotions will be running very high as the two cities that were directly hit by the attacks of 9/11 play each other on the 10th anniversary of the tragedy.
Though the Giants are the more talented team, they have 6 defensive players already on season-ending injured reserve. But more importantly, that D.C. crowd is going to be outrageous as they are running high with emotion from the anniversary. Home crowd makes the difference in this one. I'm taking Washington and the over because of the Giants suspect defense and the emergence of new Redskins RB Tim Hightower looking real good in preseason. We know the Giants can and will score points on offense. The over here feels like a lock to me.
Carolina @ Arizona(-6.5) (o/u 37.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Arizona and the points to win ~ 27-3
Over/Under Pick: Under
Result: Arizona 28 Carolina 21 / Total Score 49 /
Winner: + Spread: + O/U: -
As was discussed about rookie QB's making their first NF start earlier, we have another for the Panthers in QB Cam Newton. He won the job fair and square in the preseason, but it was mostly because he had no competition to fight with for the job. Cam may be a good dual-threat QB someday, but it's not in his first NFL start. I want to call a shutout in this one, but alas Arizona will probably find a way to have at least one turnover in their territory giving the Panthers a chance to go 3 and out and kick a long field goal. This is a no-brainer, Cards and the under.
Seattle @ San Francisco(-5.5) (o/u 37.5)
Savant Spread Pick: San Francisco and the points to win ~ 21-10
Over/Under Pick: Under
Result: San Francisco 33 Seattle 17 / Total Score 50 /
Winner: + Spread: + O/U: -
San Francisco is no prize these days, but few teams have taken a plunge like the Seahawks. New QB Tavaris Jackson has looked atrocious in the preseason and newly acquired deep threat WR Sidney Rice will miss the game(shoulder). They also have injuries at offensive line.
The 49ers are coming in to the game with most everyone healthy and a new look offense under new coach Jim Harbaugh and their own deep threat WR acquisition, Braylon Edwards. The only player of any significance on the Seattle offense is their running back Marshawn Lynch, but the 49ers have the best middle LB in football, Patrick Willis, to stuff those running lanes. It's fair to say the 49ers will cover the spread, it's more a certainty they will combine for under 38 points.
Minnesota @ San Diego(-8.5) (o/u 42)
Savant Spread Pick: San Diego and the points to win ~ 34-13
Over/Under Pick: Over
Result: San Diego 24 Minnesota 17 / Total Score 41 /
Winner: + Spread: - O/U: -
One team last year had the #1 offense and the #1 defense in the NFL in 2010; it was the San Diego Chargers. A feat already rarely done, but nonetheless done with their greatest offensive weapon, TE Antonio Gates, and superstar WR Vincent Jackson missing most of the season! They now have both guys back and healthy and will only add to the arsenal that QB Philip Rivers has at his disposal.
Minnesota acquired veteran QB Donovan McNabb to fill their "Favre Void" and he's not a bad pickup, but it is not McNabb that will make the Vikings a sub-par team this year, it will be the defense. You can always count on all-world RB Adrian Peterson to show up on Sundays and dominate, but with an average receiving corps., the Vikings will be a run-oriented team. San Diego will prove to be way too much for them to handle and this should be a blowout.
Dallas @ New York(A)(-6.) (o/u 40.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Dallas with the points; New York to win ~ 21-16
Over/Under Pick: Under
Result: New York(A) 27 Dallas 24 / Total Score 51 /
Winner: + Spread: + O/U: +
*Trifecta*
The Jets are one tough cookie to beat at home and Dallas showed signs of improvement late last year, but have lost some players coming into this season, mostly because of salary cap casualties. Dallas has a pretty nice offense with QB Tony Romo, TE Jason Witten and stud WR's Miles Austin and Dez Bryant, but the Jets are a better defense, finishing ranked near the top in 2010.
Dallas has a starter in the secondary out for the game and this should give WR Santonio Homes some extra space to squeeze in some more yardage that will make the difference in the game. Dallas will be able to keep the running game of Shonn Green and LaDanian Tomlinson somewhat in-check, but I feel like they are going to get burned a few times for big chunks in the passing game. This is a tricky one, but my gut tells me to take Dallas with the points and take the under.
Miami vs. New England (-7) (o/u 45.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Miami with the points; New England to win ~ 26-20
Over/Under Pick: Over
Result: New England 38 Miami 24 / Total Score 62 /
Winner: + Spread: - O/U: +
The Patriots are a team that is finally showing some cracks in it's marbled "dynasty" this year. Acquiring misfits DT Albert Haynesworth and WR Chad Ochocinco looked to be a bit of a desperation move for a team that is not very good at the WR or DT positions. It appears that neither move is really panning out, too. When you have Tom Brady you always have a chance, no matter who you put out there, but Brady didn't win those Super Bowls on his own. This will be one of the worst supporting casts he has seen in a number of years.
It's rare to be a 7 point dog at home, but leave it to the Dolphins to manage this. After a failed attempt to trade for Kyle Orton, they are still stuck with QB Chad Henne. They took a downgrade at the RB position, letting go Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams to sign unproven every-down back, Reggie Bush and drafted rookie Daniel Thomas to back him up. Lucky for the Dolphins, they have possibly the best kicker in the NFL in Dan Carpenter. He can bail them out some when they stall near the 40 yard line and drop those long field goals he did many times last year. The Pats are good enough to win this game over the Dolphins, but they won't dominate them like they have in years past.
Oakland @ Denver(-3) (o/u 40.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Denver and the points to win ~ 24-20
Over/Under Pick: Over
Result: Oakland 23 Denver 20 / Total Score 43 /
Winner: - Spread: - O/U: +
The most under-rated QB in the NFL is a guy who threw for over 3,600 yards and 20 TD's last year. That QB is Denver's Kyle Orton. He's back with his favorite weapon, WR Brandon Lloyd who was one of the NFLs' top receivers. Denver is not going to be very good this year, but they can surely take advantage of an Oakland secondary that will be without Nnamdi Asomugha, whom they lost to the Eagles in the free-agent market. Oakland will be able to run the ball effectively against the Broncos porous defense, but the air attack with Kyle Orton will prevail and look for a two TD game from Willis McGahee for Denver. These teams have above average offenses and bad defenses, wager the over with confidence.
I hope this guide proved to be helpful! Look out for my picks each and every week of the NFL season.
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