Sunday, September 25, 2011

NFL 2011 - Betting Lines - Picks To Win, Versus the Spread and the Over/Under: Week 3

I'm not much of a gambler, but I know many of you are!  So, this year I will be helping out my friends who like to make wagers versus the spread.  Here, I will try provide some insight on how the matchups within the game can work to your advantage when making a wager.  Making good picks is all about good information.  Week 2 of the NFL season was a big week for some key player injuries, so gauging picks and final scores will come down to key inury factors this week and the weeks to come.  Injuries are a part of the game and that's why you should be considering who is in and out of the games to make sound wagers.  Here is how I fared in Week 2 and my overall record to date:


Winner: 12-4
Winner w/ Spread: 6-8-2
Over/Under: 9-6-1

Trifecta: 2

Perfect Team Score Predictions: 3  (Arizona, Tampa Bay, Minnesota)
Perfect Game Score Predictions: 1  (Tampa Bay @ Minnesota)

*2011 Overall Record*

Winner: 22-10 (.688)
Winner w/ Spread: 14-16-2 (.467)
Over/Under: 16-14-2 (.533)

Trifecta: 6

Perfect Team Score Predictions: 6
Perfect Game Score Predictions: 2

NOTE: The team with a negative number in parenthesis "(-3)" next to their name is the favorite to win the matchup and the number represents how many points the favorite has to score more than the underdog to count as a winning bet.  The over/under for the game is represented by a number in parenthesis with the letters o and u "(o/u 46)".  The number represents the amount of points you are wagering whether or not the two team's combined score will be in excess of or short of.  Official betting lines courtesy of

So, without further adieu, the picks and analysis for NFL game wagers: Week 3...

San Francisco @ Cincinnati(-2.5)  (o/u 40.5)

Savant Spread Pick: San Francisco to win ~ 20-16

Over/Under Pick: Under

Result: San Francisco 13  Cincinnati 8 / Total Score 21 /
Winner: +  Spread: +  O/U: + 


Key Injuries: [SF] FB Moran Norris(Out), WR Braylon Edwards(Out); [CIN] WR Jordan Shipley(Out)

The 49ers come into the matchup off their first loss of the season at home to the Cowboys in what was a highly competitive game that was supposed to be an easy win for Dallas.  The Bengals are coming off of a 2-point heartbreaking loss to the Broncos in Denver.  The 49ers looked surprisingly good for a team that played without their No. 1 and No. 2 WR's for almost the entire game and gave the high-powered Cowboys offense some problems that they weren't expected to.  Cincinnati looked awful against a Broncos team that is set to win all of 4 or 5 games all season.

There is no question that the loss of Braylon Edwards will have an effect on the passing game for the 49ers but backup receivers picked up the slack last week and breakout player, Ted Ginn Jr. is itching for another big kick return and will factor more in the passing game this week.  The running game will be effected by the loss of Moran Norris, but Frank Gore is more than capable of making big plays with little blocking.  There is little positive to take from last week's loss to Denver except the exceptional play of rookie QB Andy Dalton.  Cedric Benson's announced suspension that starts next week may prove to be a distraction as well.  In the end, the 49er run defense, which is one of the best in the NFL will break down Benson and the running game and allow the secondary an extra man or two to keep A.J. Green, the only receiver of consequence for Cincy, in check down the field.

Buffalo vs. New England(-8)  (o/u 53.5)

Savant Spread Pick: Buffalo with the points; New England to win ~ 35-28

Over/Under Pick: Over

Result: Buffalo 34  New England 31 / Total Score 65 /
Winner: -  Spread: +  O/U: +


Key Injuries: [BUF] WR Roscoe Parrish(Questionable), CB Terrence McGee(Questionable); [NE] TE Aaron Hernanez(Doubtful), TE Dan Gronkowski(Probable), DT Albert Haynesworth(Questionable), C Dan Koppen(Out for Season)

Buffalo comes off of a week 2 thrashing of the dismantled KC Chiefs and the Patriots come off a big week 2 win against the NFL's number one offense and defense from 2010 in the San Diego Chargers.  There's no question that both of these teams can score lots of points, an unusual place for the Bills to find themselves in recent years.  New England has shown the dominance on offense that everyone has gotten accustomed to over the last decade, but what most people are not noticing is that their secondary is very poor thus far in 2011.

This game will very likely play out as a major shootout between two very good offenses.  Bills QB Ryan Fitzpatrick is coming of age and is finding his new favorite weapon, Steve Johnson at WR.  Expect a big game from RB1 Fred Jackson also.  Though they will put up points, they just won't be able to keep up with the scorching pace that the New England Patriots are putting up on offense against some very good NFL defenses in the last two weeks.  I expect the Pats to keep a solid lead throughout, but look for a late score from the Bills to bring the game to within the 8 point spread.

Houston @ New Orleans(-4)  (o/u 53)

Savant Spread Pick: New Orleans and the points to win ~ 32-24

Over/Under Pick: Over

Result: Houston 33  New Orleans 40 / Total Score 77 /
Winner: +  Spread: +  O/U: +


Key Injuries:  [HOU] RB Arian Foster(Doubtful) LB DeMeco Ryans(Questionable) WR Kevin Walter(Questionable); [NO] WR Marques Colston(Out), CB Tracy Porter(Questionable), LB Jonathon Vilma(Questionable)

The Texans come into this week coming off of a big win over the sliding Miami Dolphins in Miami and the Saints are coming off of a beat-down of the Chicago Bears.  The most important factor in this game will be the health of Arian Foster, which is majorly in doubt on this Friday morning.  This outcome assumes he doesn't play on Sunday, which is expected.

Houston has had a nice season thus far on the offensive side of the ball, but they are yet to face a defense of the caliber of the New Orleans Saints, in the Superdome where that D plays it's best football. If we know anything about the Bears, it's that they give up sacks, but the Saints D was ferocious in its pursuit of Jay Cutler, racking up a number of sacks and knockdowns.  They'll get after Matt Schaub in the 'Dome and get the Texan offense off schedule.  Expect Andre Johnson to get his numbers, but Drew and new choice weapon Darren Sproles and Co. are going to light up the scoreboard.  The Texans are 26th against the run.  Pierre Thomas and Mark Ingram could also have very big days.  Saints roll.

New York(N) @ Philadelphia(-8)  (o/u 48.5)

Savant Spread Pick: Philadelphia and the points to win ~ 31-17

Over/Under Pick: Under

Result: New York(N) 29  Philadelphia 16 / Total Score 35 /
Winner: -  Spread: -  O/U: +

Key Injuries: [NYG] WR Prince Amukamara(Questionable), WR Mario Manningham(Questionable), WR Domenik Hixon(Out for Season), TE Kevin Boss(Questionable), Richard Seymour(Questionable); [PHI] QB Michael Vick(Questionable)

The Eagles come into this game off a tough loss to the Falcons in Atlanta where the Eagles played most of the game without a concussed Michael Vick.  The Giants come off a Monday Night Football victory over the Rams where the score of the game was really no indication of just how poorly they played.  Though the Giants took care of the Rams, it took three field goals by the Rams inside the 5 yard line and a fluke lateral play that was mishandled and returned for a defensive TD.  For all intensive purposes, the Giants were outplayed by the Rams, behind Sam Bradford who had his first 300 yard game of his career.

The Eagles were the opposite of the Giants last week.  They lost a game in which they outplayed their opponent in Atlanta, yet lost the game greatly due to the fact that they lost the league's most dynamic player, Michael Vick to a concussion in the game.  His backup, Kafka, did a nice job, but it definitely cost them a win.  The Eagles looked too good in their loss and the Giants looked too poor in their win to have any faith the Giants can pull off a win thsi week.  Add that to the fact that they are decimated by a flurry of injuries to starters, including their WR2 Mario Manningham who has a concussion and Domenik Hixon, who tore his ACL last week.  Osi Umenyiora is still unlikely to play as well.  Eagles have too much firepower and the Giants don't have enough healthy bodies to stop it.  Eagles win big.

 Miami @ Cleveland(-2.5)  (o/u 41)

Savant Spread Pick: Miami to win ~ 24-13

Over/Under Pick: Under 

Result: Miami 17  Cleveland 16 / Total Score 33 /
Winner: -  Spread: -  O/U: +

Key Injuries: [MIA] Vontae Davis(Questionable); [CLE] None

Miami comes into this game off of a tough loss at home at the hands of the Houston Texans and Cleveland comes into the game coming off of a win over the hapless Colts in Indy.  Miami is a difficult team to figure out as they exploded on offense against the Patriots in a loss and then laid down on offense against a very beatable Houston defense.  Rookie RB Daniel Thomas now figures into the offense after his first career 100-yard rushing game last week and I expect him to be a factor in this game and the rest of the season.  Miami QB Chad Henne has been a highly under-rated player this season mostly because of the Dolphins two losses in two games.

Cleveland is a team that has proven nothing at 1-1 with a win over a Colts team that will be lucky to win 4 games and a LOSS against the Broncos who will be lucky to win 4 games.  There is little to say positive about this team at this point of the season.  QB Colt McCoy is still a work in progress to becoming even a decent NFL QB and they still don't have any threats at wideout that scare any secondaries.  Teams can key on RB1 Peyton Hillis because he is the only potent weapon they possess.  Hillis alone can bowl through eight-man fronts, but not that effectively against the higher rated LBs in the league.  Miami will have enough firepower to throttle Hillis and the Browns won't offer much more pop outside of a few big plays from TE Ben Watson.  I see no reason the desperate Dolphins won't pull this one out against a Browns team that is inferior in talent.


Denver @ Tennessee(-6)  (o/u 42.5)

Savant Spread Pick: Tennessee and the points to win ~ 24-13

Over/Under Pick: Under 

Result: Denver 14  Tennessee 17 / Total Score 31 /
Winner: +  Spread: -  O/U: +

Key Injuries: [DEN] WR Eddie Royal(Out), WR Demaryius Thomas(Out), DE Elvis Dumervil(Out), CB Champ Bailey(Questionable), RB Knowshon Moreno(Questionable) None; [TEN] S Chris Hope(Questionable)

Denver enters this game off of an unexpected win versus the Browns at home and the Titans come in from a big upset win over the Ravens.  The Broncos simply have too many key players hurt and banged up to compete with the Titans quick-strike offense and solid D.  RB1 Chris Johnson and WR1 Kenny Britt have both proven over time that they are capable of taking a run or catch the distance on any given play.  The Broncos are a team that have trouble defending against the big play.  Chris Johnson should record his first 100 yard game.  Hasselbeck will throw for 350+ yards.  No reason to think this will be very competitive.  Tennessee wins handily in this one.

Minnesota vs. Detroit(-3)  (o/u 45)

Savant Spread Pick: Minnesota to win ~ 26-23

Over/Under Pick: Over

Result: Minnesota 23  Detroit 26 / Total Score 49 /
Winner: -  Spread: push  O/U: +

Jacksonville @ Carolina(-3.5)  (o/u 43)

Savant Spread Pick: Carolina and the points to win ~ 31-10

Over/Under Pick: Under

Result: Jacksonville 10  Carolina 16 / Total Score 26 /
Winner: +  Spread: +  O/U: +


Kansas City @ San Diego(-14.5)  (o/u 44.5)

Savant Spread Pick: San Diego and the points to win ~ 44-6

Over/Under Pick:Over 

Result: Kansas City 17  San Diego 20 / Total Score 37 /
Winner: +  Spread: -  O/U: -


Oakland @ New York(A)(-3)  (o/u 41)

Savant Spread Pick: Oakand to win ~ 16-13

Over/Under Pick: Under

Result: Oakland 34  New York(A) 24 / Total Score 58 /
Winner: +  Spread: +  O/U: -

St. Louis vs. Baltimore(-5)  (o/u 42)

Savant Spread Pick: Baltimore and the points to win ~ 24-16

Over/Under Pick: Under

Result: St. Louis 7  Baltimore 37 / Total Score 44 /
Winner: +  Spread: +  O/U: -


Atlanta @ Tampa Bay(-1.5)  (o/u 45.5)

Savant Spread Pick: Atlanta to win ~ 26-21

Over/Under Pick: Over 

Result: Atlanta 13  Tampa Bay 16 / Total Score 29 /
Winner: -  Spread: -  O/U: -


Seattle vs. Arizona(-3.5)  (o/u 43.5)

Savant Spread Pick: Seattle to win ~ 19-17

Over/Under Pick: Under

Result: Seattle 13  Arizona 10 / Total Score 23 /
Winner: +  Spread: +  O/U:


Chicago vs. Green Bay(-4)  (o/u 45.5)

Savant Spread Pick: Chicago to win ~ 13-10

Over/Under Pick: Under 

Result: Chicago 17  Green Bay 27 / Total Score 44 /
Winner: -  Spread: -  O/U: +


Indianapolis vs. Pittsburgh(-10.5)  (o/u 39.5)

Savant Spread Pick: Pittsburgh and the points to win ~ 32-3

Over/Under Pick: Under

Result: Indianapolis 20  Pittsburgh 23 / Total Score 43 /
Winner: +  Spread: -  O/U: -

Washington @ Dallas(-4.5)  (o/u 45.5)

Savant Spread Pick: Washington to win ~ 17-16

Over/Under Pick: Under

Result: Washington 16  New England 18 / Total Score 34 /
Winner: -  Spread: -  O/U: +


I hope this guide proved to be helpful!  Look out for my picks each and every week of the NFL

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