Thursday, October 4, 2012

NFL Week 5: Win, Spread and Over/Under Predictions

Welcome to another week of The Sports Savant NFL Picks, Week 5 Edition!

With the return of the real referees, the games in Week 4 we're a little easier to predict.  The replacement refs were adding an unknown element to every pick and causing a lot of perfectly good prediction analysis look bad with their sometimes erroneous penalty calls and ball spotting blunders.  The Savant is back to form though going 10-5 in last week's games to win.  The spread still has much to be improved but there is still a lot of time left in the year to get it turned around.  It can be no coincidence also that last week I had four trifectas to two strikeouts where in the replacement ref games I was striking out at a rate I am not accustomed too, but everyone was for that matter with how unpredictable games were with the backup refs at the helm.

So with that comes NFL Week 5.  I'm looking to get back on track with the spread and continue my dominance in picking the winner and also continue a nice Over/Under record going forward.  Before we look at my Week 5 picks, lets take a look at my Week 4 results...


Winner: 10-5   :-)
Winner w/ Spread: 6-9  :-(
Over/Under: 9-6 :-)
Trifecta: 4
Strikeouts: 2
Perfect Team Score Predictions: 2 (Cleveland, Philadelphia)
Perfect Game Score Predictions: 0

*2012 Overall Record*
Winner: 38-25 (.603)
Winner w/ Spread: 25-36-2 (.410)
Over/Under: 31-30-2 (.508)

Trifecta: 11
Strikeouts: 14
Perfect Team Score Predictions: 8   [Week 1]: New England  [Week 2]: Indianapolis, San Francisco [Week 3]: Chicago, Washington, New York(A)  [Week 4]: Cleveland, Philadelphia
Perfect Game Score Predictions: 0

NOTE: The team with a negative number in parenthesis "(-3)" next to their name is the favorite to win the matchup and the number represents how many points the favorite has to score more than the underdog to count as a winning bet.  The over/under for the game is represented by a number in parenthesis with the letters o and u "(o/u 46)".  The number represents the amount of points you are wagering whether or not the two team's combined score will be in excess of or short of.  Official betting lines courtesy of

LOCKS: Games that have a "*LOCK*" logo next to the score are my spread lock picks of the week.  These are the games I feel strongest about the outcome of the game versus the spread.

Don't forget to check every week to check my game picks and check the previous week's picks for individual game pick results!  And now I present my Week 3, Sports Savant, NFL picks...

St. Louis v. Arizona(-2)  (o/u 39.5)
Savant Spread Pick: St. Louis to win ~ 19-16
Over/Under Pick: Under

Washington v. Atlanta(-3)  (o/u 51)
Savant Spread Pick: Atlanta and the points to win ~ 31-24
Over/Under Pick: Over

Philadelphia @ Pittsburgh(-3.5)  (o/u 43)
Savant Spread Pick: Philadelphia to win ~ 20-17
Over/Under Pick: Under

Indianapolis v. Green Bay(-7)  (o/u 48)
Savant Spread Pick: Green Bay and the points to win ~ 27-16 *LOCK*
Over/Under Pick: Under

Cleveland @ New York(N)(-8.5)  (o/u 44)
Savant Spread Pick: Cleveland with the points; New York(N) to win ~ 23-17
Over/Under Pick: Under

Tennessee @ Minnesota(-5.5)  (o/u 44)
Savant Spread Pick: Minnesota and the points to win ~ 23-17
Over/Under Pick: Under

Miami @ Cincinnati(-3)  (o/u 45)
Savant Spread Pick: Miami to win ~ 19-17
Over/Under Pick: Under

Kansas City v. Baltimore(-6.5)  (o/u 46.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Baltimore and the points to win ~ 27-20 *LOCK*
Over/Under Pick: Over

Seattle @ Carolina(-3)  (o/u 43.5)
Savant Spread PickSeattle to win ~ 16-14
Over/Under Pick: Under

Jacksonville v. Chicago(-5.5)  (o/u 41)
Savant Spread Pick: Chicago and the points to win ~ 24-13 *LOCK*
Over/Under Pick: Under

Denver @ New England(-6.5)  (o/u 52)
Savant Spread PickDenver with the points; New England to win ~ 27-20
Over/Under Pick: Under

Buffalo @ San Francisco(-9.5)  (o/u 45)
Savant Spread Pick: San Francisco and the points to win ~ 34-20 *LOCK*
Over/Under Pick: Over

San Diego @ New Orleans(-3.5)  (o/u 53)
Savant Spread Pick: New Orleans and the points to win ~ 29-24
Over/Under Pick: Over

New York(A) v. Houston(-8)  (o/u 41)
Savant Spread Pick: Houston and the points to win ~ 27-16
Over/Under Pick: Under

1 comment:

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