Thursday, October 18, 2012

NFL Week 7: Win, Spread, Over/Under and Game Score Predictions

Welcome to another week of The Sports Savant NFL Picks, Week 7 Edition!

In Week 6 of the NFL, I took some risks and some paid off, but a few expected winners took a dive making last week one of the tougher weeks in the NFL to prognosticate.  In a gutsy call, I actually had the Seahawks defeating the Patriots in my picks, just one of a very few that predicted them to win, which was a stellar pick victory.  On the flip side, teams like Minnesota, Philadelphia, Arizona and Houston, all of which I picked to win and were favored in their games, all lost, sending the Savant's record for Week 6 to a sub-par 7-7.  At 6-8, the Savant spread picks came out on the short end as well, but in stunning fashion, I have excelled at the Over/Under this year going 10-4 this week to improve my overall Over/Under record to a robust 55.7% accuracy through 7 weeks.

The most important news of these records is that I have continued my streak of 24 consecutive regular season weeks finishing with a record .500 or better "to win".  It's rare that I ever finish at exactly .500 for a week, but in the past it has always come the week before a solid week of picks.

This week is the smallest menu of games all season with six teams on bye.  Even with a small menu, the Sports Savant trudges on with yet another week of NFL picks!  I mostly went chalk as I expect most favorites to cover their respective point spreads, but I did take two underdogs to win(Tennessee, Cincinnati) and two underdogs to beat the spread in a loss(Seattle, Detroit). Before we take a look at my Week 7 picks, lets check out my pick results from Week 6 and for the 2012 season...


Winner: 7-7   :-/
Winner w/ Spread: 6-8  :-(
Over/Under: 10-4 :-)
Trifecta: 3
Strikeouts: 2
Perfect Team Score Predictions: 0
Perfect Game Score Predictions: 0

*2012 Overall Record*
Winner: 57-34 (.626)
Winner w/ Spread: 40-49-2 (.449)
Over/Under: 49-39-3 (.557)

Trifecta: 20
Perfect Team Score Predictions: 11   [Week 1]: New England  [Week 2]: Indianapolis, San Francisco [Week 3]: Chicago, Washington, New York(A)  [Week 4]: Cleveland, Philadelphia  [Week 5]: Green Bay, Seattle, San Diego
Perfect Game Score Predictions: 0

NOTE: The team with a negative number in parenthesis "(-3)" next to their name is the favorite to win the matchup and the number represents how many points the favorite has to score more than the underdog to count as a winning bet.  The over/under for the game is represented by a number in parenthesis with the letters o and u "(o/u 46)".  The number represents the amount of points you are wagering whether or not the two team's combined score will be in excess of or short of.  Official betting lines courtesy of

LOCKS: Games that have a "*LOCK*" logo next to the score are my spread lock picks of the week.  I choose four games each week that I feel will be a lock to win the spread bet.  If I have an underdog winning against a favorite and it is a *LOCK* pick, it means it is a lock that the favorite will not cover the spread, not a lock that the underdog wins the game.

Don't forget to visit every week to check my game picks and check the previous week's picks for individual game pick results!  And now I present my Week 7, Sports Savant, NFL picks...

Seattle @ San Francisco(-8)  (o/u 37.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Seattle with the points; San Francisco to win ~ 20-13
Over/Under Pick: Under 

 Tennessee @ Buffalo(-3.5)  (o/u 46.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Tennessee to win ~ 31-29
Over/Under Pick: Over

Arizona @ Minnesota(-6.5)  (o/u 40.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Minnesota and the points to win ~ 20-13
Over/Under Pick: Under

 Cleveland @ Indianapolis(-3)  (o/u 45.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Indianapolis and the points to win ~ 24-16
Over/Under Pick: Under

Baltimore @ Houston(-6.5)  (o/u 48.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Houston and the points to win ~ 26-17
Over/Under Pick: Under

St. Louis v. Green Bay(-5.5)  (o/u 45.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Green Bay and the points to win ~ 27-20 *LOCK*
Over/Under Pick: Over

Carolina v. Dallas(-2.5)  (o/u 45.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Dallas and the points to win ~ 24-17
Over/Under Pick: Under

Washington @ New York(N)(-6)  (o/u 51)
Savant Spread Pick: New York and the points to win ~ 31-24 *LOCK*
Over/Under Pick: Over

Tampa Bay v. New Orleans(-2.5)  (o/u 49.5)
Savant Spread Pick: New Orleans and the points to win ~ 31-28
Over/Under Pick: Over

New York(A) @ New England(-10.5)  (o/u 47.5)
Savant Spread Pick: New England and the points to win ~ 34-13 *LOCK*
Over/Under Pick: Under

Jacksonville @ Oakland(-4)  (o/u 44)
Savant Spread Pick: Oakland and the points to win ~ 24-13 *LOCK*
Over/Under Pick: Under

Cincinnati v. Pittsburgh(-1)  (o/u 44.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Cincinnati to win ~ 23-21
Over/Under Pick: Under

Detroit @ Chicago(-6.5)  (o/u 44)
Savant Spread Pick: Detroit with the points; Chicago to win ~ 27-23
Over/Under Pick: Over


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