Thursday, October 25, 2012

NFL Week 8: Win, Spread, Over/Under and Game Score Predictions

Welcome to another week of The Sports Savant NFL Picks, Week 8 Edition!

A Cincinnati loss to Pittsburgh.  That's how close I was to every prognosticators dream; the perfect week.  Heading into Sunday night's battle between the Bengals and Steelers last week, I was perfect, 11-0 in my week's NFL picks for Week 7.  Only once in the 24 regular season weeks I have kept an official record of weekly NFL picks had I even only had one loss in a week, a 15-1 record in Week 14 of the 2011 season on a full slate of NFL games.  In that week, I had already suffered the sole blemish by the end of the 4:30 games; a 19-21 loss by the 49ers to the Cardinals.  This time I was still undefeated going into the night game.  The Bengals had control of the game early and I was primed for an undefeated run, but the Steelers came back and blew the dream.  By Monday morning I had suffered my first loss.

I ended up correctly picking the Monday Night Football game winner and settled with a 12-1 record for Week 7 and improved my already robust winning percentage 66.3%.  Some would argue that the 15-1 record from last year is more impressive than a 13-0 record considering their were six teams on bye for Week 7 that didn't have to be picked and no teams on bye in Week 14 last year when I reached the 15 win mark.  That may be true, but any prognosticator would tell you that there is something special about escaping a week of NFL picks without a blemish whether it is in a week of teams on bye or a full slate.  I'm still seeking that elusive perfect week, but as close I have come in just a season in a half, I am bound to hit it.  Maybe it will be this week!

In this week's NFL picks, I have only one underdog covering the spread in a loss(Jacksonville) and I also have four dogs to win their respective games outright(Miami, Washington, Oakland and New Orleans).  I went mostly chalk and picked out the games that looked prime for an upset last week and nailed nearly every one of them.  I am using a similar formula this week and we'll see what kind of results it brings me.

On the season, with last week's explosion of winners, I was also on absolute fire in my spread and over/under picks finishing Week 7 with a 9-3-1 mark against the spread and 9-4 mark picking the over/under.  These marks lead to a personal record of seven trifectas in a single week, a feat that may never again go matched it's is so unbelievably rare.  This blazing week brought me back to nearly even for the year on my spread picks(48.5%) after my brutal stretch of bad spread picks during the NFL Referee lockout when everything was so unpredictable.  My over/under picks have been scorching all year long though and half way through the season I have a 57.7% success rate on the over/under, a rate of success that only the most expert of prognosticators reaches for a full season.

Before we look at my picks for Week 8, let's take a look at how last weeks picks shaped up and my overall records for the 2012 NFL season...


Winner: 12-1   :-D
Winner w/ Spread: 9-3-1  :-D
Over/Under: 9-4 :-D
Trifecta: 7 (New Record!)
Strikeouts: 0
Perfect Team Score Predictions: 2 (St. Louis, Tampa Bay)
Perfect Game Score Predictions: 0

*2012 Overall Record*
Winner: 69-35 (.663)
Winner w/ Spread: 49-52-3 (.485)
Over/Under: 58-43-3 (.574)

Trifecta: 27
Perfect Team Score Predictions: 13   [Week 1]: New England  [Week 2]: Indianapolis, San Francisco [Week 3]: Chicago, Washington, New York(A)  [Week 4]: Cleveland, Philadelphia  [Week 5]: Green Bay, Seattle, San Diego  [Week 5]: St. Louis, Tampa Bay
Perfect Game Score Predictions: 0

NOTE: The team with a negative number in parenthesis "(-3)" next to their name is the favorite to win the matchup and the number represents how many points the favorite has to score more than the underdog to count as a winning bet.  The over/under for the game is represented by a number in parenthesis with the letters o and u "(o/u 46)".  The number represents the amount of points you are wagering whether or not the two team's combined score will be in excess of or short of.  Official betting lines courtesy of

LOCKS: Games that have a "*LOCK*" logo next to the score are my spread lock picks of the week.  I choose four games each week that I feel will be a lock to win the spread bet.  If I have an underdog winning against a favorite and it is a *LOCK* pick, it means it is a lock that the favorite will not cover the spread, not a lock that the underdog wins the game.

Don't forget to visit to check my game picks or right here on at The Sports Savant channel.  And now for my Week 8, NFL picks...

Tampa Bay @ Minnesota(-5.5)  (o/u 43)
Savant Spread Pick: Minnesota and the points to win ~ 23-17
Over/Under Pick: Under

St. Louis v. New England(-7)  (o/u 47)
Savant Spread Pick: New England and the points to win ~ 26-16
Over/Under Pick: Under

Indianapolis @ Tennessee(-3.5)  (o/u 47)
Savant Spread Pick: Tennessee and the points to win ~ 27-23
Over/Under Pick: Over

Jacksonville @ Green Bay(-15)  (o/u 43.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Jacksonville with the points; Green Bay to win ~ 27-13
Over/Under Pick: Under

Cleveland v. San Diego(-3)  (o/u 43.5)
Savant Spread Pick: San Diego and the points to win ~ 20-16
Over/Under Pick: Under

Atlanta @ Philadelphia(-3)  (o/u 43.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Philadelphia and the points to win ~ 26-23
Over/Under Pick: Over

Seattle @ Detroit(-2.5)  (o/u 42.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Detroit and the points to win ~ 24-16
Over/Under Pick: Under

Miami @ New York(A)(-2.5)  (o/u 40)
Savant Spread Pick: Miami to win ~ 21-17
Over/Under Pick: Under

Carolina @ Chicago(-7.5)  (o/u 43)
Savant Spread Pick: Chicago and the points to win ~ 28-20
Over/Under Pick: Over

Washington @ Pittsburgh(-4.5)  (o/u 46)
Savant Spread Pick: Washington to win ~ 29-27
Over/Under Pick: Over

Oakland @ Kansas City(-1.5)  (o/u 42)
Savant Spread Pick: Oakland to win ~ 20-17
Over/Under Pick: Under

Dallas v. New York(N)(-2)  (o/u 46.5)
Savant Spread Pick: New York and the points to win ~ 27-19
Over/Under Pick: Under

New Orleans @ Denver(-6)  (o/u 55)
Savant Spread Pick: New Orleans to win ~ 31-28
Over/Under Pick: Over

Arizona v. San Francisco(-7)  (o/u 38)
Savant Spread Pick: San Francisco and the points to win ~ 23-12
Over/Under Pick: Under

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