Thursday, November 1, 2012

NFL Week 9: Win, Spread, Over/Under and Game Score Predictions

Welcome to another week of The Sports Savant NFL Picks, Week 9 Edition!

Last week presented itself to be quite a challenge as I was humbled coming off of a nearly perfect 12-1 Week 7 only to follow up with a very average 8-6 on my Week 8 picks.  The silver lining was the continuation of my streak of having never picked below .500 on any week of picks since I started publishing every game pick of every week in 2011.  The other good news was that I at least salvaged a .500 record against the spread, which is far more difficult to get right.  It wasn't a winning week, but at least it was a break even week.  I can't say the same for the over/under as I came up a game shy of .500 but I am still hot handed on the over/under picks on the year maintaining 55.6% accuracy.  With my 77-41 record in picks to win in 2012, I still stand in 3rd place amongst ESPN's twelve man expert panel, with Chris Mortenson and Chris Wickersham still leading the charge at 82-36 and 83-35, respectively.

My week wrapped up with three trifectas and four strikeouts keeping my trifecta to strikeout ratio around 3 to 2 at 30-21.  The goal is to have a 2 to 1 ratio for the year so I have work to do there.  My seven trifecta week in Week 7 really helped the cause.  I need another week like that one to get myself back near the goal, but the more likely solution will be to keep chipping away with a great second half of the season.

As challenging as last week was, this week may prove to be as challenging or more.  As usual there was a lot of chalk in my picks, but I dared to take FOUR road underdogs this week(Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay, Dallas, Philadelphia) and a home dog(Cleveland).  These games will be the biggest difference in a big week of picks or hovering around .500.  I've got a good feeling about this week.

Before we look at my picks for Week 9, let's take a look at how last weeks picks shaped up and my overall records for the 2012 NFL season...


Winner: 8-6  
Winner w/ Spread: 7-7
Over/Under: 6-7-1
Trifecta: 3
Strikeouts: 4
Perfect Team Score Predictions: 0
Perfect Game Score Predictions: 0

*2012 Overall Record*
Winner: 77-41 (.652)
Winner w/ Spread: 56-59-3 (.487)
Over/Under: 64-50-4 (.556)

Trifecta: 30
Perfect Team Score Predictions: 13   [Week 1]: New England  [Week 2]: Indianapolis, San Francisco [Week 3]: Chicago, Washington, New York(A)  [Week 4]: Cleveland, Philadelphia  [Week 5]: Green Bay, Seattle, San Diego  [Week 5]: St. Louis, Tampa Bay
Perfect Game Score Predictions: 0

NOTE: The team with a negative number in parenthesis "(-3)" next to their name is the favorite to win the matchup and the number represents how many points the favorite has to score more than the underdog to count as a winning bet.  The over/under for the game is represented by a number in parenthesis with the letters o and u "(o/u 46)".  The number represents the amount of points you are wagering whether or not the two team's combined score will be in excess of or short of.  Official betting lines courtesy of

LOCKS: Games that have a "*LOCK*" logo next to the score are my spread lock picks of the week.  I choose four games each week that I feel will be a lock to win the spread bet.  If I have an underdog winning against a favorite and it is a *LOCK* pick, it means it is a lock that the favorite will not cover the spread, not a lock that the underdog wins the game.

Don't forget to visit to check my game picks or right here on at The Sports Savant channel.  And now for my Week 9, NFL picks...

Kansas City @ San Diego(-7.5)  (o/u 41.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Kansas City with the points; San Diego to win ~ 23-16
Over/Under Pick: Under

Cincinnati v. Denver(-3.5)  (o/u 47.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Denver and the points to win ~ 24-20 *LOCK*
Over/Under Pick: Under

Arizona @ Green Bay(-10.5)  (o/u 43.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Green Bay and the points to win ~ 31-17
Over/Under Pick: Over

Indianapolis v. Miami(-2)  (o/u 43)
Savant Spread Pick: Miami and the points to win ~ 20-17
Over/Under Pick: Under

Cleveland v. Baltimore(-3.5)  (o/u 42.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Cleveland to win ~ 20-17
Over/Under Pick: Under

Buffalo @ Houston(-10)  (o/u 47.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Houston and the points to win ~ 37-21
Over/Under Pick: Over

Carolina @ Washington(-3)  (o/u 46.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Washington and the points to win ~ 27-21
Over/Under Pick: Over

Jacksonville v. Detroit(-4)  (o/u 44)
Savant Spread Pick: Detroit and the points to win ~ 28-17

Over/Under Pick: Under

Tennessee v. Chicago(-3.5)  (o/u 43.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Chicago and the points to win ~ 24-20
Over/Under Pick: Over

Minnesota @ Seattle(-4.5)  (o/u 38.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Seattle and the points to win ~ 23-16
Over/Under Pick: Over

Tampa Bay @ Oakland(-1.5)  (o/u 46.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Tampa Bay to win ~ 26-21
Over/Under Pick: Over

Pittsburgh @ New York(N)(-3)  (o/u 47.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Pittsburgh to win ~ 27-24
Over/Under Pick: Over

Dallas @ Atlanta(-4)  (o/u 47.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Dallas to win ~ 28-27
Over/Under Pick: Over

Philadelphia @ New Orleans(-3)  (o/u 51.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Philadelphia to win ~ 29-23
Over/Under Pick: Over

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