Welcome to Part III of my 2014 NFL Divisional preview! I've covered the
AFC EAST and AFC NORTH but today, it's a preview and record predictions for the AFC SOUTH!
The AFC SOUTH is a division that since its inception in 2002 has been mostly dominated by the Indianapolis Colts. The Colts have won this division 8 out of the 12 years it has been in existence. This was largely due to one Peyton Manning who has already solidified himself as one of the greatest QB's of all time. With no more Peyton in this division after he was released by the Colts a couple of years ago, the division has been more wide open though still won last year by Peyton's successor, QB Andrew Luck, and the Colts once again. Reloaded and more experienced, the Colts look like a favorite again, but can they hang on and stave off the Texans, Titans and Jaguars? Read on to find out!
Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jacksonville Jaguars and Head Coach Gus Bradley have a lot of work to do over this year and the years to come to make this team a contender once again. In 2013, the Jaguars were one of the AFC's worst teams and they Jags haven't finished better than 29th in total offense in the last three years. This team has nowhere to go but up, but the climb up the NFL ladder, if it happens, will be a slow and arduous one.
The Jaguars are chock-full of deficiencies on both sides of the ball. So many, in fact, its hard to know where to begin trying to improve their roster. The Jags did make a few additions this off-season through the draft and in free agency, but no amount of drafting and free agent signing could pull this team from the doldrums in 2014.
After the failed experiment that was their #1 draft choice in 2011(10th overall), QB Blaine Gabbert, was finally discarded to the San Francisco 49ers for a 6th round pick, the Jags took another gamble on a 1st round QB, Blake Bortles of UCF, and thus far in the preseason it appears the Jags could have drafted a winner. Bortles has had a blistering preseason going 32 of 51 for 521 yards, 2 TD and 0 INT. The Jags have stated that their plan is to sit Bortles for the entire season to learn behind veteran QB Chad Henne, but with the way Bortles played, they may have no choice but to see what this rookie can do once the Jags fall hopelessly out of contention for the division.
Another welcome addition that should help sure up the defense was the signing of free agent DE Chris Clemons from the Super Bowl Champion Seattle Seahawks. He is one of the best DE in the league and really knows how to get after the QB. But, again, it fills a hole where there are so many more that need talented players.
On offense, we are going to get a look at RB Toby Gearhart as a full-time starter for the first time in his career. Gearhart, a Stanford product, has backed up All-World RB Adrian Peterson with the Minnesota Vikings since he was drafted a few years ago. He's shown signs of quality production when filling in for Peterson when Peterson has been injured, so he was a natural and inexpensive fit for the recently departed RB Maurice Jones-Drew, who took off for the Oakland Raiders this off-season. Gearhart could have a nice breakout season for him personally, but they don't have the surrounding talent to make his contributions turn into wins this year.
In Jacksonville, almost the entire roster is learning on the job whether it be because they are young and inexperienced or came from other teams where they were backups to other talented players. There's no reason to believe this team can fair much better than their 4-12 season of a year ago. Jags fans, you've got another forgettable year ahead of you, but there are reasons to be hopeful for an eventual turnaround with the young players they have going forward.
Savant Record Prediction: (4-12, 4th place)
Houston Texans
In 2013, the Houston Texans were the NFL's biggest disappointment by a long shot. Some sports pundits had this team making a Super Bowl appearance last year and with just 2 wins, they wound up with the worst record in the entire NFL. Enter Head Coach Bill O'Brien, a descendant of the Bill Belichick coaching tree, he was an offensive coordinator with the New England Patriots before coaching a year as the HC of Penn State University last year. The Texans are hoping he can bring some of that Patriot magic with him to Texas, and I believe he will... but not this year.
With that said, however, I do think this team will improve under his direction and the sheer fact that this team so woefully underachieved in 2013. They may not have actually been a Super Bowl contender last year, but with their current roster, they certainly are not a 2 win team either.
The two most important things that can result in on-the-field success for this team will be to keep All-Pro RB Arian Foster healthy and productive for a full season and the efficiency of newly acquired QB Ryan Fitzpatrick in this offense. Fitzpatrick was brought in after QB Matt Schaub was unceremoniously departed but you can't consider Fitzpatrick an upgrade considering the totality of his journeyman career in the NFL. Something to keep an eye on will be to see if Fitzpatrick can keep his job over the recently traded for QB Ryan Mallet, who has thrown only a handful of NFL passes backing up the legendary QB Tom Brady in New England. Mallet has a huge arm and the pedigree to succeed but just hasn't had a chance to show what he can do. It may not be long before Mallett is under center for the Texans considering HC Bill O'Brien's familiarity with him from his days as the Patriots' OC while Mallett was there.
Also important is the mental state of their All-World WR Andre Johnson, who has expressed serious interest in a trade from the team. Johnson has spent his entire career with the Texans and is tired of losing. He's had a very serious fall-out with the team after he expressed an urgency for them to pick-up a veteran quality QB to throw him the ball. When the team opted for Fitzpatrick, Johnson started demanding a trade or even sit out the entire season. It looks now as if Johnson will put his focus on playing, but this is something that could fester should the Texans get off to a bad start.
The most talked about acquisition for this team, however, is the team's #1 overall draft pick, LB Jadeveon Clowney, who has been called a "once-in-a-generation" type of player. He's already drawing comparisons to the most feared linebacker of all-time, LB Lawrence Taylor. With his presence opposite the defensive player of the year candidate, DE J.J. Watt and the return of ILB Brian Cushing from knee surgery on a torn LCL that caused him to miss most of last season, this pass rush could be highly formidable and keep opposing offenses from staying on the field too long.
There's no reason to believe that this team could possibly repeat as the worst in the NFL this year, in fact, I think they make a marked improvement, but it's only going to be enough to come up just short of a playoff berth. With some development from Mallett, because he is clearly a better future option than Fitzpatrick, this team could be in the playoff mix in 2015. Until then, expect a very average season from the Houston Texans.
Savant Record Prediction: (7-9, 3rd place)
Tennessee Titans
The Tennessee Titans were a team on the verge of a breakout season in 2013 until a season ending injury to starting QB Jake Locker derailed their hopes of being a playoff contender. Now, with Locker back healthy and a cast of players similar to the team fielded last year, they look to capture the playoff berth that almost was last year.
The most notable of losses from last year's roster was the departure of RB Chris Johnson, who just a few years ago eclipsed the improbable 2,000 yard rushing mark. After that year, he held out for a giant, 50+ million dollar contract, which he got and then began to steadily decline. The RB formerly known as CJ2K for his 2,000 yard feet, was hardly playing like CJ1K, as he barely passed the 1,000 yard rushing mark at a meager 3.9 yards per carry and 67 rushing yards per game. With his production diving and his contract bloating the books, Johnson was released and picked up by the New York Jets.
With the departure of Johnson, the team decided to draft an electrifying RB in the draft named Bishop Sankey from University of Washington. Sankey is competing with veteran RB Shonn Greene for the starting position and is expected to eventually take it over considering Greene's injury history. Sankey could be a real difference maker like Johnson was before him in Tennessee.
One of the more under-rated moves of the off-season was the signing of All-Pro left tackle Michael Oher. Yes, that Michael Oher, the subject from which the movie The Blind Side was based on. Despite his Hollywood story, Oher is one of the more dominant tackles in the NFL. The real issue that the Titans have had over the last two years has been keeping their rising star QB healthy. Oher will be an important cog in providing the protection that Jake Locker needs to play a full season and could prove incredibly critical to the team's success.
The Titans also poached key defensive players LB Wesley Woodyard from the Denver Broncos and LB Shaun Phillips of the San Diego Chargers, both with a history of quality linebacker play in the NFL. These two should help improve a defense that finished a sub-par 22nd in total defense last season. What also can't be underestimated is the signing of RB/PR Dexter McCluster from Kansas City. McCluster didn't do much in the Chiefs offensive scheme, but new Head Coach Ken Wisenhunt has a special role for a player like McCluster just as he did when he had RB Danny Woodhead, a similar but inferior player to McCluster, that excelled him to a 1,000 yard from scrimmage season in San Diego last year. That's not even to mention the contributions McCluster can add to the Titans' punt and kick return game.
The only real question mark for this team is at the cornerback position where star CB Alterraun Verner left a vacancy after signing a big deal with the Tampa Bay Bucs this off-season. No one they have on their current roster can fill those shoes, so this team took a bit of a hit in their pass defense, but overall this team has made improvements over last year.
Provided the key players mentioned, most notably Jake Locker, can stay healthy this year, this team will see gains from last year's season lost to injury. Their playoff hopes will ride on the performance of teams from other AFC divisions, but look for them to be on the cusp or possibly in the playoffs in 2014.
Savant Record Prediction: (9-7, 2nd place)
Indianapolis Colts
The Indianapolis Colts seek yet another division title in the AFC SOUTH in 2014 which would make them division champs 9 of 13 seasons since the AFC SOUTH inception in 2002. Most of those titles came under the management of Head Coach Tony Dungy and QB Peyton Manning, but its Head Coach Chuck Pagano and QB Andrew Luck who have began their own tradition of winning in Indianapolis these days.
The ascension of Andrew Luck continues year-by-year and he is expected to make huge gains in his third year as a starter. Luck is looking to make that leap into the elite QB discussion as he was knocking on the door of the lite club just last year in his 2nd season. I see no reason why Luck doesn't take a monumental leap this year and even contend for a league MVP in 2014.
Part of the reason for my belief in Luck's ascension is because of the nice receiving core he has to distribute the ball to. No one works harder in the off-season than legendary WR Reggie Wayne and even at his accelerated age, he shows no sign of slowing down in 2014. Add the always reliable Wayne to deep-threat WR T.Y. Hilton and the newly acquired WR Hakeem Nicks and that rounds out a nice trio. That doesn't even mention their two pass catching TE's Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen. With all of those good targets, this team is designed to air it out.
The only question mark on offense remains the production of RB Trent Richardson, who was a highly touted RB out of Alabama just a few years ago. Indy traded a 1st round pick to the Cleveland Browns to acquire him and he has yet been even close to worthy of that value. He just doesn't seem to have the horizontal cutting ability to be more than a plowing back, which will never net a back more than 3.5-4.0 yards per carry.
If the offensive line can be special this year and create some holes, Richardson has the power to do damage, but he has to get up to speed first and that takes him a few steps. If he can't produce, they'll be missing RB Donald Brown's contributions from last year Brown took his talents to San Diego in the off-season. Though Brown will be missed, don't dismiss the potential contributions of former RB stud, Ahmad Bradshaw, who missed almost all of last year with a neck injury. Even if this team can run the ball mildly effectively, it will be enough to create the space Luck and the receivers need to take big chunks of yards in the passing game.
The Colts will be without their leading sacker and All-Pro LB Robert Mathis for the first 4 games due to a PED suspension and their thin secondary is still looking like last year's squad who struggled against the pass, but this team can hang on during Mathis' absence and though they will give up big plays on defense, the offense will be so good, they will overcome those weaknesses.
No doubts about this one. The Colts will easily be your AFC SOUTH Champions with a potential 1st round bye in the playoffs as the #2 AFC seed and a potential date with Peyton Manning and the Broncos in the AFC Championship.
Savant Record Prediction: (12-4, 1st place)
Showing posts with label colts. Show all posts
Showing posts with label colts. Show all posts
Wednesday, September 3, 2014
Thursday, November 1, 2012
NFL Week 9: Win, Spread, Over/Under and Game Score Predictions
Welcome to another week of The Sports Savant NFL Picks, Week 9 Edition!
Last week presented itself to be quite a challenge as I was humbled coming off of a nearly perfect 12-1 Week 7 only to follow up with a very average 8-6 on my Week 8 picks. The silver lining was the continuation of my streak of having never picked below .500 on any week of picks since I started publishing every game pick of every week in 2011. The other good news was that I at least salvaged a .500 record against the spread, which is far more difficult to get right. It wasn't a winning week, but at least it was a break even week. I can't say the same for the over/under as I came up a game shy of .500 but I am still hot handed on the over/under picks on the year maintaining 55.6% accuracy. With my 77-41 record in picks to win in 2012, I still stand in 3rd place amongst ESPN's twelve man expert panel, with Chris Mortenson and Chris Wickersham still leading the charge at 82-36 and 83-35, respectively.
My week wrapped up with three trifectas and four strikeouts keeping my trifecta to strikeout ratio around 3 to 2 at 30-21. The goal is to have a 2 to 1 ratio for the year so I have work to do there. My seven trifecta week in Week 7 really helped the cause. I need another week like that one to get myself back near the goal, but the more likely solution will be to keep chipping away with a great second half of the season.
As challenging as last week was, this week may prove to be as challenging or more. As usual there was a lot of chalk in my picks, but I dared to take FOUR road underdogs this week(Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay, Dallas, Philadelphia) and a home dog(Cleveland). These games will be the biggest difference in a big week of picks or hovering around .500. I've got a good feeling about this week.
Before we look at my picks for Week 9, let's take a look at how last weeks picks shaped up and my overall records for the 2012 NFL season...
*WEEK 8 RESULTS*
Don't forget to visit therealsportssavant.blogspot.com to check my game picks or right here on lastwordonsports.com at The Sports Savant channel. And now for my Week 9, NFL picks...
Kansas City @ San Diego(-7.5) (o/u 41.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Kansas City with the points; San Diego to win ~ 23-16
Over/Under Pick: Under
Cincinnati v. Denver(-3.5) (o/u 47.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Denver and the points to win ~ 24-20 *LOCK*
Over/Under Pick: Under
Arizona @ Green Bay(-10.5) (o/u 43.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Green Bay and the points to win ~ 31-17
Over/Under Pick: Over
Indianapolis v. Miami(-2) (o/u 43)
Savant Spread Pick: Miami and the points to win ~ 20-17
Over/Under Pick: Under
Cleveland v. Baltimore(-3.5) (o/u 42.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Cleveland to win ~ 20-17
Over/Under Pick: Under
Buffalo @ Houston(-10) (o/u 47.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Houston and the points to win ~ 37-21 *LOCK*
Over/Under Pick: Over
Carolina @ Washington(-3) (o/u 46.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Washington and the points to win ~ 27-21
Over/Under Pick: Over
Jacksonville v. Detroit(-4) (o/u 44)
Savant Spread Pick: Detroit and the points to win ~ 28-17
Over/Under Pick: Under
Tennessee v. Chicago(-3.5) (o/u 43.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Chicago and the points to win ~ 24-20
Over/Under Pick: Over
Minnesota @ Seattle(-4.5) (o/u 38.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Seattle and the points to win ~ 23-16 *LOCK*
Over/Under Pick: Over
Tampa Bay @ Oakland(-1.5) (o/u 46.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Tampa Bay to win ~ 26-21
Over/Under Pick: Over
Pittsburgh @ New York(N)(-3) (o/u 47.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Pittsburgh to win ~ 27-24 *LOCK*
Over/Under Pick: Over
Dallas @ Atlanta(-4) (o/u 47.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Dallas to win ~ 28-27
Over/Under Pick: Over
Philadelphia @ New Orleans(-3) (o/u 51.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Philadelphia to win ~ 29-23
Over/Under Pick: Over
Last week presented itself to be quite a challenge as I was humbled coming off of a nearly perfect 12-1 Week 7 only to follow up with a very average 8-6 on my Week 8 picks. The silver lining was the continuation of my streak of having never picked below .500 on any week of picks since I started publishing every game pick of every week in 2011. The other good news was that I at least salvaged a .500 record against the spread, which is far more difficult to get right. It wasn't a winning week, but at least it was a break even week. I can't say the same for the over/under as I came up a game shy of .500 but I am still hot handed on the over/under picks on the year maintaining 55.6% accuracy. With my 77-41 record in picks to win in 2012, I still stand in 3rd place amongst ESPN's twelve man expert panel, with Chris Mortenson and Chris Wickersham still leading the charge at 82-36 and 83-35, respectively.
My week wrapped up with three trifectas and four strikeouts keeping my trifecta to strikeout ratio around 3 to 2 at 30-21. The goal is to have a 2 to 1 ratio for the year so I have work to do there. My seven trifecta week in Week 7 really helped the cause. I need another week like that one to get myself back near the goal, but the more likely solution will be to keep chipping away with a great second half of the season.
As challenging as last week was, this week may prove to be as challenging or more. As usual there was a lot of chalk in my picks, but I dared to take FOUR road underdogs this week(Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay, Dallas, Philadelphia) and a home dog(Cleveland). These games will be the biggest difference in a big week of picks or hovering around .500. I've got a good feeling about this week.
Before we look at my picks for Week 9, let's take a look at how last weeks picks shaped up and my overall records for the 2012 NFL season...
*WEEK 8 RESULTS*
Winner: 8-6
Winner w/ Spread: 7-7
Over/Under: 6-7-1
---------------------------------------------
Trifecta: 3
Strikeouts: 4
Perfect Team Score Predictions: 0
Perfect Game Score Predictions: 0
___________
*2012 Overall Record*
Winner: 77-41 (.652)
Winner w/ Spread: 56-59-3 (.487)
Over/Under: 64-50-4 (.556)
--------------------------------------------
Trifecta: 30
Trifecta: 30
Strikeouts:21
Perfect Team Score Predictions: 13 [Week 1]: New England [Week 2]: Indianapolis, San Francisco [Week 3]: Chicago, Washington, New York(A) [Week 4]: Cleveland, Philadelphia [Week 5]: Green Bay, Seattle, San Diego [Week 5]: St. Louis, Tampa Bay
Perfect Game Score Predictions: 0
NOTE:
The team with a negative number in parenthesis "(-3)" next to their
name is the favorite to win the matchup and the number represents how
many points the favorite has to score more than the underdog to count as
a winning bet. The over/under for the game is represented by a number
in parenthesis with the letters o and u "(o/u 46)". The number
represents the amount of points you are wagering whether or not the two
team's combined score will be in excess of or short of. Official betting lines courtesy of www.footballlocks.com
LOCKS: Games that have a "*LOCK*" logo next to the score are my spread lock picks of the week. I choose four games each week that I feel will be a lock to win the spread bet. If I have an underdog winning against a favorite and it is a *LOCK* pick, it means it is a lock that the favorite will not cover the spread, not a lock that the underdog wins the game.
LOCKS: Games that have a "*LOCK*" logo next to the score are my spread lock picks of the week. I choose four games each week that I feel will be a lock to win the spread bet. If I have an underdog winning against a favorite and it is a *LOCK* pick, it means it is a lock that the favorite will not cover the spread, not a lock that the underdog wins the game.
Don't forget to visit therealsportssavant.blogspot.com to check my game picks or right here on lastwordonsports.com at The Sports Savant channel. And now for my Week 9, NFL picks...
Kansas City @ San Diego(-7.5) (o/u 41.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Kansas City with the points; San Diego to win ~ 23-16
Over/Under Pick: Under
Cincinnati v. Denver(-3.5) (o/u 47.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Denver and the points to win ~ 24-20 *LOCK*
Over/Under Pick: Under
Arizona @ Green Bay(-10.5) (o/u 43.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Green Bay and the points to win ~ 31-17
Over/Under Pick: Over
Indianapolis v. Miami(-2) (o/u 43)
Savant Spread Pick: Miami and the points to win ~ 20-17
Over/Under Pick: Under
Cleveland v. Baltimore(-3.5) (o/u 42.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Cleveland to win ~ 20-17
Over/Under Pick: Under
Buffalo @ Houston(-10) (o/u 47.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Houston and the points to win ~ 37-21 *LOCK*
Over/Under Pick: Over
Carolina @ Washington(-3) (o/u 46.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Washington and the points to win ~ 27-21
Over/Under Pick: Over
Jacksonville v. Detroit(-4) (o/u 44)
Savant Spread Pick: Detroit and the points to win ~ 28-17
Over/Under Pick: Under
Tennessee v. Chicago(-3.5) (o/u 43.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Chicago and the points to win ~ 24-20
Over/Under Pick: Over
Minnesota @ Seattle(-4.5) (o/u 38.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Seattle and the points to win ~ 23-16 *LOCK*
Over/Under Pick: Over
Tampa Bay @ Oakland(-1.5) (o/u 46.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Tampa Bay to win ~ 26-21
Over/Under Pick: Over
Pittsburgh @ New York(N)(-3) (o/u 47.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Pittsburgh to win ~ 27-24 *LOCK*
Over/Under Pick: Over
Dallas @ Atlanta(-4) (o/u 47.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Dallas to win ~ 28-27
Over/Under Pick: Over
Philadelphia @ New Orleans(-3) (o/u 51.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Philadelphia to win ~ 29-23
Over/Under Pick: Over
Tuesday, September 25, 2012
NFL Week 3: Reaction and Analysis
It was an interesting week in the NFL Week 3, especially with the influence of the replacement officials and their sometimes stupefying calls and penalties. Here's a look at the games from Week 3 and some analysis of the teams moving forward....
New York Giants - 36 | Carolina Panthers - 7
This was the first shocking outcome of the NFL's 3rd week and it came on Thursday Night Football. Carolina, who was a 2.5 point favorite by the spread, completely no-showed for this game. The Giants were business as usual despite giving the bulk of their running work to a backup running back, Andre Brown, and being without their top wide receiver, Hakeem Nicks. The absence of these players made Carolina a popular pick to win the game, especially with how dangerous Cam Newton, Steve Smith and Brandon LaFell can be in the passing game against a Giants secondary that has shown it can be compared to some of the league's worst. The Giants' elite defensive line neutralized the Panthers' passing game by pressuring Cam all night and allowing that bad secondary to breath a sigh of relief. The Panthers defense was as bad as they've been advertised over the last season plus, but the expectation was that Cam and company would light up that secondary but they never got the opportunity to.
St. Louis Rams - 6 | Chicago Bears - 23
It was back to basics for Jay Cutler and the Bears after a bad offensive outing against Green Bay in Week 2. To combat their ongoing protection issues, the Bears changed up the game plan to give Jay Cutler more running back screens and roll-outs to use an aggressive pass rush against itself. These types of plays can assist a team with poor pass protection, but are higher risk and harder to be consistent with. This play selection was proven somewhat effective against a Rams pass defense that is much improved since acquiring former Titans CB Cortland Finnegan(who had an interception in this game). This style of play-calling won't be successful for teams that are prepared for it or have more speed at linebacker or a dominant defensive line, none of which St. Louis has. The Rams continued to give the Bears opportunities by not moving the ball the entire game and it was finally broken wide open with an interception return for a TD by Bears' defensive back, Major Wright late in the game. Little positive can be said for any aspect of the Rams' performance on offense or defense. They are looking like the doormat team they were a season ago.
Buffalo Bills - 24 | Cleveland Browns - 14
The Buffalo Bills are showing signs that their blowout loss against the Jets in Week 1 was just an anomoly. In that first game, Bills' QB Ryan Fitzpatrick threw 3 interceptions, but has posted 5 TDs and 0 interceptions in his last two games, including 3 this week versus the Browns. The Bills did suffer another big loss at running back this week when the NFL's leading rusher, RB C.J. Spiller went out in the 1st quarter with what looked like a seperated shoulder or potential broken clavicle. Already missing Fred Jackson with a sprained LCL in his left knee, this could have been a disaster for the Bills, but their third string running back, the former Dallas Cowboy, Tashard Choice filled in very respectably for the two injured backs rushing for over 90 yards. The Browns, though in three tough losses, are showing that they can compete in any given week. Rookie QB Brandon Weeden has matured very quickly and bounced back from his 4 interception day in Week 1 to post a 300 yard game and a quality start against the Bills. The Browns may surprise someone one week with a big upset.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 10 | Dallas Cowboys - 16
This was one of the more uninspiring wins for the Dallas Cowboys in recent memory, but considering they were coming off of a bad loss to Seattle where they were manhandled, any kind of win would be considered an improvement. The Dallas defense did their job to contain what is a pretty pedestrian offense lead by QB Josh Freeman, RB Doug Martin and WRs Vincent Jackson and Mike Williams. What's more worrisome for the Cowboys is we saw some poor play and decision making on the part of Tony Romo again. He didn't have a passing TD in this game and threw a bad interception that lead to the only Buccaneer TD. The Cowboys are going to have to see more production from their offense if they want to have even a chance to win the NFC East division, nonetheless, the Super Bowl they claim that they have a chance for this year. The Buccaneers look a bit more disciplined under new HC Greg Schiano, but they are still trying to overcome a lack of major talent at the skill positions. Vincent Jackson is making half of the impact they expect from him so far and Doug Martin has looked like a respectable RB, but this team is still a long way from being considered a contender in the NFC South.
Jacksonville Jaguars - 22 | Indianapolis Colts - 17
Little can be said for the future of either of these two teams. The game was pretty poorly played on both sides, but in the spirit of there having to be a winner, it was Jacksonville that was able to strike on an 80 yard TD with less than a minute left in the game to win it. The only reason the Jaguars were able to score at all was merely because of two enormously blown assignments on a 59 yard romp by MJD and the aforementioned 80 yard TD by Cecil Shorts. That 80 yard TD pass accounted for 52% of Blaine Gabbert's passing yards for the entire game. It was all MJD in this one, proving that the lockout has had and won't have any ill-effects on his game. Andrew Luck actually looked better than Gabbert in this one, but he was failed by their very accurate kicker, Adam Vinatieri, on a missed chip-shot FG that would have changed the progression of the game. These teams will still be fighting over last place in the AFC South at the end of the year.
New York Jets - 23 | Miami Dolphins - 20
In some cases, the winner of the game is not represented by the score. In thsi game, that is the case. Miami played so much better than the Jets, they should have won this game hands down. Some bac breaks and a missed FG by their usually very reliable kick, Dan Carpenter, was their demise. The Jets looked nothing short of atrocious on offense. If not for a very rookie mistake by the Dolphins QB Ryan Tannehill that lead to one of the easiest interception returns for a TD you'll see for the Jets, the Jets unequivocally lose this game. It was more a matter of the Dolphins' inability to help themselves on offense that lead to this Jets win than a Jets defensive performance. The biggest story to come out of the game though was the Jets' loss of All-Pro defensive back, Darrell Revis. He's arguably the MVP of the entire team on either side of the ball and his injury is massive blow to the Jets' already slim chances of seeing the playoffs. Opposing teams have accumulated a 78% completion rate and 5/0 TD:INT ratio when Revis is not on the field compared to only 56% and a 15:21 TD:INT ratio while he is in. On other note, Reggie Bush had a scare in the game leaving the game in the 2nd quarter with a bruised knee. It was first feared that he had structural damage to the knee, but after an MRI reports are he is ok and could play this Sunday.
San Francisco 49ers - 13 | Minnesota Vikings - 24
In the surprise game of the day, the Vikings found a way to win, not behind the legs of their All-Pro running back, but behind their inexperienced QB, Christian Ponder. Having the best game of his career, Ponder was poised and very accurate on almost all of his passes and was peppering his TE Kyle Rudolph all day including two TD receptions for Rudolph. Even more surprisingly, the Vikings much maligned defense played the best game we've seen from them in years. This very defense has made superstars out of sub-par QB's in the first two weeks of the season and suddenly flipped the switch when the 49ers came to town. In contradiction to the Vikings, the 49ers had one of their worst combined offensive and defensive games in the Jim Harbaugh era. The 49ers, who give up under 80 yards per game rushing under Harbaugh gave up 146 yards rushing albeit on a massive 41 rushing attempts. The 49ers also had very uncharacteristic turnovers by Frank Gore and Alex Smith. Smith's one interception was his first in 249 passes which was an ongoing 49ers record. The once seemingly weakness-free Niners have some questions to answer in their secondary if they are going to have championship aspirations. The Vikings, though posting an impressive win against one of the NFL's top teams can still expect to come up short of their very competitive division with the Bears, Packers and Lions to face, but this is a game no one had them winning this year.
Kansas City Chiefs - 27 | New Orleans Saints - 24
In what was the second biggest shocker of the day behind the 49ers loss to the Lions was the New Orleans Saints falling to 0-2 at home and 0-3 overall against the Kansas City Chiefs who people have been talking about as one of the weaker teams in the NFL. I don't personally believe the Chiefs are all as bad as people make them out to be, but they have no business going into the Mercedes-Benz Superdome and winning a game in New Orleans. The Saints were a perfect 8-0 at home last season and appeared unbeatable with their home advantage in recent years, but with this unbelievably bad defense the Saints have put together in 2012, in part hampered by the loss of linebackers Jonathon Vilma to suspension/injury and Scott Fujita to free agency, they can't seem to stop anything wearing an opposing jersey. We all know how talented and fast Chiefs RB Jamaal Charles is but anytime you give up 233 yards rushing to not just a team, but to one individual, that's about as bad a day as you can have on defense. There's no doubt that these losses are more about how bad the Saints are than their opponent's performance. The three teams that have beaten the Saints have recorded their only win of the season against New Orleans through Week 3 making their opponents 0-6 in other games. The Saints now join the Browns as the only 0-3 teams in the NFL. To make matters worse, only 3 of 118 teams have made the playoffs after starting the season 0-3 since the new playoff format adopted in 1990. This would indicate that the Saints playoff hopes are already hopeless.
Detroit Lions - 41 | Tennessee Titans - 44
In the highest scoring game of the year, the teams combined for 85 points, but accounted for an NFL record 46 of those points in the 4th quarter. This was a game that saw a cross-field lateral 60 yard punt return for a TD, a 105 yard kickoff return for a TD, a 71 yard TD reception and a 72 yard strip fumble return for TD, all by the Titans. The Lions amazingly scored a TD late, got an onside kick and then scored another TD on a Hail Mary heave that was tipped and caught by Tidus Young to tie it at the end of regulation. The two TDs happened in the last 18 game seconds. In overtime the Titans posted a FG and on the Lions possession came to a 4th down and 1 in the redzone and instead of attempting a game tying chip-shot FG, they ran a QB keeper which failed and ended the game. The Lions looked an absolute mess on special teams and defense giving up TDs in every way you can imagine. The Lions have no chance of snatching away the NFC North from Green Bay or Chicago looking this awful in those phases of the game. This team still has the lack of discipline they were criticized over last season and it seems HC Jim Schwartz is helpless to get his players to perform basic tasks of discipline to sure up these mental let-downs. The Titans mostly took advantage of a sloppy playing Lions team, so though 44 points looks nice, it is more a facade of potent offense. Three of the Titans TDs were scored by the defense or special teams. Lions QB Matthew Stafford did leave the game late in this one and is questionable to play next week with a strained calf.
Cincinnati Bengals - 38 | Washington Redskins - 31
This was a game that nearly added an early chapter to the young RGIII legacy. The Bengals began the game on the first play with a wildcat formation putting rookie WR Mohamed Sanu in at QB. Sanu took the snap and promptly hit A.J. Green in stride for a 73 yard TD pass. From there, the Bengals would rack up a 24-7 lead and would beat up on RGIII all day. Robert Griffin remained undeterred though and would come back to lead the Redskins on multiple scoring drives score 17 unanswered points to bring them back into the game. The Bengals would outlast the strong comeback from RGIII and the Redskins to survive by a TD. The biggest storyline was not just how amazing RGII continues to perform, even when faced with a big deficit, but also the play of sophomore QB Andy Dalton, who has been expected to take a big step building off of his successful rookie campaign last year. Dalton is looking every bit the prospect he was coming into his second year and more while RGIII just continues to show us what. What's going relatively unnoticed though is the emergence of unknown WR Andrew Hawkins who has quickly become the complementary receiver the Bengals have needed opposite A.J. Green. BenJarvus Green-Ellis has quietly posted solid numbers for them in the running game and the offense is clicking. It's their defense, which was supposed to be the strong suit of the Bengals that has failed them so far.
Philadelphia Eagles - 6 | Arizona Cardinals - 27
It just continues to look ugly for the Eagles. After being the first team to go 2-0 with 9 turnovers, the turnovers finally caught up with them. Michael Vick and the Eagles suffered 3 more turnovers and no semblance of offense against what has been an extraordinaraly underrated defense in the Cardinals. I was one of the few people that had Arizona to win this game, but even I couldn't have forseen this kind of a blowout. Kevin Kolb, QB for the Cardinals, continues to show why he was brought in via trade from the Eagles to be their starting QB in the absence of the previously named starter, John Skelton, who is still out with an ankle injury suffered last week. It will be interesting to see who gets to have the starting job when Skelton returns to health. As for the Eagles, they may be 2-1, but they have looked about as ugly as you can look in those games. The defense is about where we thought it would be and actually looked pretty good despite the 27 points allowed which was more the fault of the offense turning the ball over, one of which resulted in a returned TD. Vick is getting eviscerated at the QB position. He has been hit 56 times in 3 games, which has to be a record for QB hits in three games. If the Eagles want to have a chance at anything this year, they have got to get Vick protected and keep him healthy. Handing the ball off would be a good start in ensuring that, but HC Andy Reid is too stubborn. No one has passed on a higher percentage of plays than Reid in his coaching career.
Atlanta Falcons - 27 | San Diego Chargers - 3
The Atlanta Falcons continued to impress by flying out west to face the previously unbeaten Chargers and take a convincing win back to Atlanta. Matt Ryan is showing that he is on the cusp of becoming one of the league's next elite QBs with his 2012 season so far. The one worry for the Falcons was how abysmal their running game has been, but Michael Turner and Jacquizz Rodgers put that to bed, at least for this week, by combining for 112 yards rushing in the victory. Atlanta's defense seems to be unfazed by the loss of their All-Pro corner, Brent Grimes, who is now out for the season with a ruptured achilles by keeping Philip Rivers and the entire offense out of the endzone all game. It's back to the drawing board for the Chargers who didn't look overly impressive in their two wins before this game, but they have to be concerned with how they got served in their own house by an east coast team. The Falcons are one of the NFL's top five teams right now, but to get blown out in such dominant fashion is a real concern. I think they'll bounce back and make a run at the AFC West, but it appears that the Falcons already have a pretty nice path to winning their division now that New Orleans is 0-3, the Bucs aren't a threat and the Panthers were already having problems with their defense but now their offense is regressing. I think at this point Atlanta is already a clear favorite in a division we thought would be much more contested.
Houston Texans - 31 | Denver Broncos - 25
For a second straight week a late Peyton Manning comeback falls short for the Broncos. After getting out to a comfortable lead, the Texans were attempting to simply burn clock with just under 10:00 left in the game when RB Ben Tate fumbled the ball which lead to a Denver score. Another late score by Manning would bring them within 6 points but the comeback would end there. Peyton looks like he's still working out the wrinkles in this offense and isn't quite on point yet with this throws. He narrowly missed a couple of TD passes to Demaryius Thomas including one that was caught but Thomas didn't have the presence of mind to drag his second foot before going out of bounds thus getting the TD call reversed. Texans Qb Matt Shaub was on the money all day in every facet of the game. He finished his day with four TD passes including an two absolute bombs; a 60 yarder to Andre Johnson and 52 yard deep ball to Kevin Walter. Just when we thought the key to meutraslizing the Texans offense was to stop Arain Foster and the running game, Schaub and the Texans have shown that they can and will beat teams through the air as well. With one of the league's top rated defenses, there seems to be no more complete team in the NFL. The Broncos are very close to being a very good team. They are missing plays and throws by the smallest of margins. This feels like a team that may sturggle a little in the coming weeks, but could be a very dangerous team once the chemistry between Manning and his receivers is in full effect.
Pittsburgh Steelers - 31 | Oakland Raiders - 34
It's becoming painfully obvious that the Steelers are a shell of their former selves. A team known first for crushing defense and a 'ground and pound' mentality has neither of those elements working in the 2012 version of this team. Ben and the passing game is probably as good as they've ever been since Ben was drafted, but with the running game and defense taking steps back, the step forward that this offense has taken under new OC Todd Haley in the passing game still comes out to an aggregate negative. This defense is missing veteran leaders James Harrison and Troy Polamalu right now with injuries, but even when Polamalu has been healthy in the last year and Week 1 of this year, he has not looked like the All-Pro safety we are accustomed to. It looks like he may be on the decline and we don't know what the Steelers will get out of Harrison with his surgically repaired knee when he comes back. This was a very encouraging win for Oakland, however. Carson Palmer looks like he is finally getting comfortable in this offense after being acquired via trade in the middle of last season. If he can come to old form, when he was the #1 overall player selected in the draft and won a bunch of games for the Bengals, he and that massive running game behind the legs of world class speedster Darren McFadden could take them all the way to an AFC West title with no one stepping up as a favorite in that division yet. The Steelers are looking like a team that will be lucky to grab the final wildcard spot in the AFC. They are certainly capable of it, but I can't see them surpassing the Ravens with how good they have looked so far this year.
New England Patriots - 30 | Baltimore Ravens - 31
This rematch of last year's AFC Championship had a number of unique storylines. First, you had the Ravens young standout WR Torrey Smith playing emotionally inspired by the death of his younger brother who died in a motorcycle accident less than 24 hours before kickoff. He would turn that emotional inspiration into the biggest game of his life. Smith grabbed 6 balls for 127 yards and 2 TDs making him one of the biggest factors in this game for Baltimore. There were a number of questionable calls in the game, which actually lead to an NFL game record 13 penalties that resulted in first downs. In a game littered with yellow laundry, what stood out the most was how Joe Flacco has seemed to respond to his critics that say he is the weak link in this offense and that the team is to reliant on stud RB Ray Rice. Flacco is putting his doubters to rest by playing at a very high level and against some pretty good competition. The Patriots are left reeling after a second consecutive loss, but what really has them perturbed is the way the game ended. It appeared that the final field goal that won the game as time expired may have gone directly over the crossbar and not inside of it, which sent all of the Patriots players into a furor. So much so that HC Bill Belichick went rampaging after an official and even attempted to grab him by the arm as he was jogging off of the field. Belichick can expect a nice sized fine for that one. In all, the Patriots just don't have the glamour or intimidation they once possessed and it could be that this team, after a decade of rich success may finally be coming back to earth a bit. In this game, it looked like the Ravens who would be destined for an AFC Championship appearance in 2012 and not the Patriots.
Green Bay Packers - 12 | Seattle Seahawks - 14
There's no evaluating this game without first recognizing that the Packers were more blatantly robbed of this win than any game I've seen in over 15 years of watching the NFL. Amongst many bad calls around the NFL since the beginning of the season with the replacement refs, none have been as egregious as the Hail Mary interception thrown by Seattle's Russell Wilson that was ultimately ruled a TD based on what the refs saw as 'simultaneous possession' of the football. The reality is, the ball was first intercepted and after coming to the ground, Seattle's WR Golden Tate wrestled his arm into the cradled arms of the Packers' defender and gave the illusion that he had some kind of possession of the ball. To his credit, the scam worked and Seattle stole one from Green Bay on the backs of the replacement officials. Aside from that, this game looked very ugly for both teams. Seattle stunned Green Bay with 8 first half sacks, but then continued to get in their own way on offense with very little movement of the ball. It's a very rare thing to keep Aaron Rodgers to just 223 yards and 0 TD passes and still lose the game, which is what Seattle should have been up against if not for the blown call at the end. This reversal of fortunes could have huge playoff implications going forward. If the Packers somehow miss the playoffs by one game, they will know who to blame. Seattle looks like they could be an eventual playoff contender, but they are going to have to get Russell Wilson better at finding hot reads in blitz situations. Coming into the game, Wilson had a 78% completion rate when facing just four rushers. That percentage drops to under 50% when facing the blitz. Though this loss is alarming for the Packers, there's no need for panic at this juncture as other teams in the NFC North haven't shown any dominance or have began to pull away from the pack.
New York Giants - 36 | Carolina Panthers - 7
This was the first shocking outcome of the NFL's 3rd week and it came on Thursday Night Football. Carolina, who was a 2.5 point favorite by the spread, completely no-showed for this game. The Giants were business as usual despite giving the bulk of their running work to a backup running back, Andre Brown, and being without their top wide receiver, Hakeem Nicks. The absence of these players made Carolina a popular pick to win the game, especially with how dangerous Cam Newton, Steve Smith and Brandon LaFell can be in the passing game against a Giants secondary that has shown it can be compared to some of the league's worst. The Giants' elite defensive line neutralized the Panthers' passing game by pressuring Cam all night and allowing that bad secondary to breath a sigh of relief. The Panthers defense was as bad as they've been advertised over the last season plus, but the expectation was that Cam and company would light up that secondary but they never got the opportunity to.
St. Louis Rams - 6 | Chicago Bears - 23
It was back to basics for Jay Cutler and the Bears after a bad offensive outing against Green Bay in Week 2. To combat their ongoing protection issues, the Bears changed up the game plan to give Jay Cutler more running back screens and roll-outs to use an aggressive pass rush against itself. These types of plays can assist a team with poor pass protection, but are higher risk and harder to be consistent with. This play selection was proven somewhat effective against a Rams pass defense that is much improved since acquiring former Titans CB Cortland Finnegan(who had an interception in this game). This style of play-calling won't be successful for teams that are prepared for it or have more speed at linebacker or a dominant defensive line, none of which St. Louis has. The Rams continued to give the Bears opportunities by not moving the ball the entire game and it was finally broken wide open with an interception return for a TD by Bears' defensive back, Major Wright late in the game. Little positive can be said for any aspect of the Rams' performance on offense or defense. They are looking like the doormat team they were a season ago.
Buffalo Bills - 24 | Cleveland Browns - 14
The Buffalo Bills are showing signs that their blowout loss against the Jets in Week 1 was just an anomoly. In that first game, Bills' QB Ryan Fitzpatrick threw 3 interceptions, but has posted 5 TDs and 0 interceptions in his last two games, including 3 this week versus the Browns. The Bills did suffer another big loss at running back this week when the NFL's leading rusher, RB C.J. Spiller went out in the 1st quarter with what looked like a seperated shoulder or potential broken clavicle. Already missing Fred Jackson with a sprained LCL in his left knee, this could have been a disaster for the Bills, but their third string running back, the former Dallas Cowboy, Tashard Choice filled in very respectably for the two injured backs rushing for over 90 yards. The Browns, though in three tough losses, are showing that they can compete in any given week. Rookie QB Brandon Weeden has matured very quickly and bounced back from his 4 interception day in Week 1 to post a 300 yard game and a quality start against the Bills. The Browns may surprise someone one week with a big upset.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 10 | Dallas Cowboys - 16
This was one of the more uninspiring wins for the Dallas Cowboys in recent memory, but considering they were coming off of a bad loss to Seattle where they were manhandled, any kind of win would be considered an improvement. The Dallas defense did their job to contain what is a pretty pedestrian offense lead by QB Josh Freeman, RB Doug Martin and WRs Vincent Jackson and Mike Williams. What's more worrisome for the Cowboys is we saw some poor play and decision making on the part of Tony Romo again. He didn't have a passing TD in this game and threw a bad interception that lead to the only Buccaneer TD. The Cowboys are going to have to see more production from their offense if they want to have even a chance to win the NFC East division, nonetheless, the Super Bowl they claim that they have a chance for this year. The Buccaneers look a bit more disciplined under new HC Greg Schiano, but they are still trying to overcome a lack of major talent at the skill positions. Vincent Jackson is making half of the impact they expect from him so far and Doug Martin has looked like a respectable RB, but this team is still a long way from being considered a contender in the NFC South.
Jacksonville Jaguars - 22 | Indianapolis Colts - 17
Little can be said for the future of either of these two teams. The game was pretty poorly played on both sides, but in the spirit of there having to be a winner, it was Jacksonville that was able to strike on an 80 yard TD with less than a minute left in the game to win it. The only reason the Jaguars were able to score at all was merely because of two enormously blown assignments on a 59 yard romp by MJD and the aforementioned 80 yard TD by Cecil Shorts. That 80 yard TD pass accounted for 52% of Blaine Gabbert's passing yards for the entire game. It was all MJD in this one, proving that the lockout has had and won't have any ill-effects on his game. Andrew Luck actually looked better than Gabbert in this one, but he was failed by their very accurate kicker, Adam Vinatieri, on a missed chip-shot FG that would have changed the progression of the game. These teams will still be fighting over last place in the AFC South at the end of the year.
New York Jets - 23 | Miami Dolphins - 20
In some cases, the winner of the game is not represented by the score. In thsi game, that is the case. Miami played so much better than the Jets, they should have won this game hands down. Some bac breaks and a missed FG by their usually very reliable kick, Dan Carpenter, was their demise. The Jets looked nothing short of atrocious on offense. If not for a very rookie mistake by the Dolphins QB Ryan Tannehill that lead to one of the easiest interception returns for a TD you'll see for the Jets, the Jets unequivocally lose this game. It was more a matter of the Dolphins' inability to help themselves on offense that lead to this Jets win than a Jets defensive performance. The biggest story to come out of the game though was the Jets' loss of All-Pro defensive back, Darrell Revis. He's arguably the MVP of the entire team on either side of the ball and his injury is massive blow to the Jets' already slim chances of seeing the playoffs. Opposing teams have accumulated a 78% completion rate and 5/0 TD:INT ratio when Revis is not on the field compared to only 56% and a 15:21 TD:INT ratio while he is in. On other note, Reggie Bush had a scare in the game leaving the game in the 2nd quarter with a bruised knee. It was first feared that he had structural damage to the knee, but after an MRI reports are he is ok and could play this Sunday.
San Francisco 49ers - 13 | Minnesota Vikings - 24
In the surprise game of the day, the Vikings found a way to win, not behind the legs of their All-Pro running back, but behind their inexperienced QB, Christian Ponder. Having the best game of his career, Ponder was poised and very accurate on almost all of his passes and was peppering his TE Kyle Rudolph all day including two TD receptions for Rudolph. Even more surprisingly, the Vikings much maligned defense played the best game we've seen from them in years. This very defense has made superstars out of sub-par QB's in the first two weeks of the season and suddenly flipped the switch when the 49ers came to town. In contradiction to the Vikings, the 49ers had one of their worst combined offensive and defensive games in the Jim Harbaugh era. The 49ers, who give up under 80 yards per game rushing under Harbaugh gave up 146 yards rushing albeit on a massive 41 rushing attempts. The 49ers also had very uncharacteristic turnovers by Frank Gore and Alex Smith. Smith's one interception was his first in 249 passes which was an ongoing 49ers record. The once seemingly weakness-free Niners have some questions to answer in their secondary if they are going to have championship aspirations. The Vikings, though posting an impressive win against one of the NFL's top teams can still expect to come up short of their very competitive division with the Bears, Packers and Lions to face, but this is a game no one had them winning this year.
Kansas City Chiefs - 27 | New Orleans Saints - 24
In what was the second biggest shocker of the day behind the 49ers loss to the Lions was the New Orleans Saints falling to 0-2 at home and 0-3 overall against the Kansas City Chiefs who people have been talking about as one of the weaker teams in the NFL. I don't personally believe the Chiefs are all as bad as people make them out to be, but they have no business going into the Mercedes-Benz Superdome and winning a game in New Orleans. The Saints were a perfect 8-0 at home last season and appeared unbeatable with their home advantage in recent years, but with this unbelievably bad defense the Saints have put together in 2012, in part hampered by the loss of linebackers Jonathon Vilma to suspension/injury and Scott Fujita to free agency, they can't seem to stop anything wearing an opposing jersey. We all know how talented and fast Chiefs RB Jamaal Charles is but anytime you give up 233 yards rushing to not just a team, but to one individual, that's about as bad a day as you can have on defense. There's no doubt that these losses are more about how bad the Saints are than their opponent's performance. The three teams that have beaten the Saints have recorded their only win of the season against New Orleans through Week 3 making their opponents 0-6 in other games. The Saints now join the Browns as the only 0-3 teams in the NFL. To make matters worse, only 3 of 118 teams have made the playoffs after starting the season 0-3 since the new playoff format adopted in 1990. This would indicate that the Saints playoff hopes are already hopeless.
Detroit Lions - 41 | Tennessee Titans - 44
In the highest scoring game of the year, the teams combined for 85 points, but accounted for an NFL record 46 of those points in the 4th quarter. This was a game that saw a cross-field lateral 60 yard punt return for a TD, a 105 yard kickoff return for a TD, a 71 yard TD reception and a 72 yard strip fumble return for TD, all by the Titans. The Lions amazingly scored a TD late, got an onside kick and then scored another TD on a Hail Mary heave that was tipped and caught by Tidus Young to tie it at the end of regulation. The two TDs happened in the last 18 game seconds. In overtime the Titans posted a FG and on the Lions possession came to a 4th down and 1 in the redzone and instead of attempting a game tying chip-shot FG, they ran a QB keeper which failed and ended the game. The Lions looked an absolute mess on special teams and defense giving up TDs in every way you can imagine. The Lions have no chance of snatching away the NFC North from Green Bay or Chicago looking this awful in those phases of the game. This team still has the lack of discipline they were criticized over last season and it seems HC Jim Schwartz is helpless to get his players to perform basic tasks of discipline to sure up these mental let-downs. The Titans mostly took advantage of a sloppy playing Lions team, so though 44 points looks nice, it is more a facade of potent offense. Three of the Titans TDs were scored by the defense or special teams. Lions QB Matthew Stafford did leave the game late in this one and is questionable to play next week with a strained calf.
Cincinnati Bengals - 38 | Washington Redskins - 31
This was a game that nearly added an early chapter to the young RGIII legacy. The Bengals began the game on the first play with a wildcat formation putting rookie WR Mohamed Sanu in at QB. Sanu took the snap and promptly hit A.J. Green in stride for a 73 yard TD pass. From there, the Bengals would rack up a 24-7 lead and would beat up on RGIII all day. Robert Griffin remained undeterred though and would come back to lead the Redskins on multiple scoring drives score 17 unanswered points to bring them back into the game. The Bengals would outlast the strong comeback from RGIII and the Redskins to survive by a TD. The biggest storyline was not just how amazing RGII continues to perform, even when faced with a big deficit, but also the play of sophomore QB Andy Dalton, who has been expected to take a big step building off of his successful rookie campaign last year. Dalton is looking every bit the prospect he was coming into his second year and more while RGIII just continues to show us what. What's going relatively unnoticed though is the emergence of unknown WR Andrew Hawkins who has quickly become the complementary receiver the Bengals have needed opposite A.J. Green. BenJarvus Green-Ellis has quietly posted solid numbers for them in the running game and the offense is clicking. It's their defense, which was supposed to be the strong suit of the Bengals that has failed them so far.
Philadelphia Eagles - 6 | Arizona Cardinals - 27
It just continues to look ugly for the Eagles. After being the first team to go 2-0 with 9 turnovers, the turnovers finally caught up with them. Michael Vick and the Eagles suffered 3 more turnovers and no semblance of offense against what has been an extraordinaraly underrated defense in the Cardinals. I was one of the few people that had Arizona to win this game, but even I couldn't have forseen this kind of a blowout. Kevin Kolb, QB for the Cardinals, continues to show why he was brought in via trade from the Eagles to be their starting QB in the absence of the previously named starter, John Skelton, who is still out with an ankle injury suffered last week. It will be interesting to see who gets to have the starting job when Skelton returns to health. As for the Eagles, they may be 2-1, but they have looked about as ugly as you can look in those games. The defense is about where we thought it would be and actually looked pretty good despite the 27 points allowed which was more the fault of the offense turning the ball over, one of which resulted in a returned TD. Vick is getting eviscerated at the QB position. He has been hit 56 times in 3 games, which has to be a record for QB hits in three games. If the Eagles want to have a chance at anything this year, they have got to get Vick protected and keep him healthy. Handing the ball off would be a good start in ensuring that, but HC Andy Reid is too stubborn. No one has passed on a higher percentage of plays than Reid in his coaching career.
Atlanta Falcons - 27 | San Diego Chargers - 3
The Atlanta Falcons continued to impress by flying out west to face the previously unbeaten Chargers and take a convincing win back to Atlanta. Matt Ryan is showing that he is on the cusp of becoming one of the league's next elite QBs with his 2012 season so far. The one worry for the Falcons was how abysmal their running game has been, but Michael Turner and Jacquizz Rodgers put that to bed, at least for this week, by combining for 112 yards rushing in the victory. Atlanta's defense seems to be unfazed by the loss of their All-Pro corner, Brent Grimes, who is now out for the season with a ruptured achilles by keeping Philip Rivers and the entire offense out of the endzone all game. It's back to the drawing board for the Chargers who didn't look overly impressive in their two wins before this game, but they have to be concerned with how they got served in their own house by an east coast team. The Falcons are one of the NFL's top five teams right now, but to get blown out in such dominant fashion is a real concern. I think they'll bounce back and make a run at the AFC West, but it appears that the Falcons already have a pretty nice path to winning their division now that New Orleans is 0-3, the Bucs aren't a threat and the Panthers were already having problems with their defense but now their offense is regressing. I think at this point Atlanta is already a clear favorite in a division we thought would be much more contested.
Houston Texans - 31 | Denver Broncos - 25
For a second straight week a late Peyton Manning comeback falls short for the Broncos. After getting out to a comfortable lead, the Texans were attempting to simply burn clock with just under 10:00 left in the game when RB Ben Tate fumbled the ball which lead to a Denver score. Another late score by Manning would bring them within 6 points but the comeback would end there. Peyton looks like he's still working out the wrinkles in this offense and isn't quite on point yet with this throws. He narrowly missed a couple of TD passes to Demaryius Thomas including one that was caught but Thomas didn't have the presence of mind to drag his second foot before going out of bounds thus getting the TD call reversed. Texans Qb Matt Shaub was on the money all day in every facet of the game. He finished his day with four TD passes including an two absolute bombs; a 60 yarder to Andre Johnson and 52 yard deep ball to Kevin Walter. Just when we thought the key to meutraslizing the Texans offense was to stop Arain Foster and the running game, Schaub and the Texans have shown that they can and will beat teams through the air as well. With one of the league's top rated defenses, there seems to be no more complete team in the NFL. The Broncos are very close to being a very good team. They are missing plays and throws by the smallest of margins. This feels like a team that may sturggle a little in the coming weeks, but could be a very dangerous team once the chemistry between Manning and his receivers is in full effect.
Pittsburgh Steelers - 31 | Oakland Raiders - 34
It's becoming painfully obvious that the Steelers are a shell of their former selves. A team known first for crushing defense and a 'ground and pound' mentality has neither of those elements working in the 2012 version of this team. Ben and the passing game is probably as good as they've ever been since Ben was drafted, but with the running game and defense taking steps back, the step forward that this offense has taken under new OC Todd Haley in the passing game still comes out to an aggregate negative. This defense is missing veteran leaders James Harrison and Troy Polamalu right now with injuries, but even when Polamalu has been healthy in the last year and Week 1 of this year, he has not looked like the All-Pro safety we are accustomed to. It looks like he may be on the decline and we don't know what the Steelers will get out of Harrison with his surgically repaired knee when he comes back. This was a very encouraging win for Oakland, however. Carson Palmer looks like he is finally getting comfortable in this offense after being acquired via trade in the middle of last season. If he can come to old form, when he was the #1 overall player selected in the draft and won a bunch of games for the Bengals, he and that massive running game behind the legs of world class speedster Darren McFadden could take them all the way to an AFC West title with no one stepping up as a favorite in that division yet. The Steelers are looking like a team that will be lucky to grab the final wildcard spot in the AFC. They are certainly capable of it, but I can't see them surpassing the Ravens with how good they have looked so far this year.
New England Patriots - 30 | Baltimore Ravens - 31
This rematch of last year's AFC Championship had a number of unique storylines. First, you had the Ravens young standout WR Torrey Smith playing emotionally inspired by the death of his younger brother who died in a motorcycle accident less than 24 hours before kickoff. He would turn that emotional inspiration into the biggest game of his life. Smith grabbed 6 balls for 127 yards and 2 TDs making him one of the biggest factors in this game for Baltimore. There were a number of questionable calls in the game, which actually lead to an NFL game record 13 penalties that resulted in first downs. In a game littered with yellow laundry, what stood out the most was how Joe Flacco has seemed to respond to his critics that say he is the weak link in this offense and that the team is to reliant on stud RB Ray Rice. Flacco is putting his doubters to rest by playing at a very high level and against some pretty good competition. The Patriots are left reeling after a second consecutive loss, but what really has them perturbed is the way the game ended. It appeared that the final field goal that won the game as time expired may have gone directly over the crossbar and not inside of it, which sent all of the Patriots players into a furor. So much so that HC Bill Belichick went rampaging after an official and even attempted to grab him by the arm as he was jogging off of the field. Belichick can expect a nice sized fine for that one. In all, the Patriots just don't have the glamour or intimidation they once possessed and it could be that this team, after a decade of rich success may finally be coming back to earth a bit. In this game, it looked like the Ravens who would be destined for an AFC Championship appearance in 2012 and not the Patriots.
Green Bay Packers - 12 | Seattle Seahawks - 14
There's no evaluating this game without first recognizing that the Packers were more blatantly robbed of this win than any game I've seen in over 15 years of watching the NFL. Amongst many bad calls around the NFL since the beginning of the season with the replacement refs, none have been as egregious as the Hail Mary interception thrown by Seattle's Russell Wilson that was ultimately ruled a TD based on what the refs saw as 'simultaneous possession' of the football. The reality is, the ball was first intercepted and after coming to the ground, Seattle's WR Golden Tate wrestled his arm into the cradled arms of the Packers' defender and gave the illusion that he had some kind of possession of the ball. To his credit, the scam worked and Seattle stole one from Green Bay on the backs of the replacement officials. Aside from that, this game looked very ugly for both teams. Seattle stunned Green Bay with 8 first half sacks, but then continued to get in their own way on offense with very little movement of the ball. It's a very rare thing to keep Aaron Rodgers to just 223 yards and 0 TD passes and still lose the game, which is what Seattle should have been up against if not for the blown call at the end. This reversal of fortunes could have huge playoff implications going forward. If the Packers somehow miss the playoffs by one game, they will know who to blame. Seattle looks like they could be an eventual playoff contender, but they are going to have to get Russell Wilson better at finding hot reads in blitz situations. Coming into the game, Wilson had a 78% completion rate when facing just four rushers. That percentage drops to under 50% when facing the blitz. Though this loss is alarming for the Packers, there's no need for panic at this juncture as other teams in the NFC North haven't shown any dominance or have began to pull away from the pack.
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