NFL Week 6: Win, Spread and Over/Under Predictions

Welcome to another week of The Sports Savant NFL Picks, Week 6 Edition!

After a sluggish first few weeks(thanks mostly to the unpredictability of the replacement referee debacle), the Sports Savant has been heating up on NFL picks each week and was absolutely on fire in Week 5!  I finished with an amazing 12 wins, 9 wins against the spread, and 8 wins(plus a tie) in 14 games this week. If you made your wagers based on my predictions, you made a substantial amount of money.  Add to those totals six trifectas to one strikeout and three perfect team scores, it was a NFL week of picks to remember.

This week presents its challenges and tough matchups, but now that I've got my mojo going, I'm feeling another big week of picks.  I'm going against the grain this week by picking four underdogs to win(Cleveland, Indianapolis, Minnesota, Seattle) and I even have a couple of favorites not covering the spread in wins(Miami, San Francisco).

Before we look at my picks for Week 6, lets take a look at my record last week and my overall record for NFL picks in 2012... 


*WEEK 5 RESULTS*

Winner: 12-2   :-)

Winner w/ Spread: 9-5  :-)

Over/Under: 8-5-1 :-)

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Trifecta: 6

Strikeouts: 1

Perfect Team Score Predictions: 3 (Green Bay, Seattle, San Diego)

Perfect Game Score Predictions: 0

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*2012 Overall Record*

Winner: 50-27 (.649)

Winner w/ Spread: 34-41-2 (.453)

Over/Under: 39-35-3 (.527)

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Trifecta: 17

Strikeouts: 15

Perfect Team Score Predictions: 11   [Week 1]: New England  [Week 2]: Indianapolis, San Francisco [Week 3]: Chicago, Washington, New York(A)  [Week 4]: Cleveland, Philadelphia  [Week 5]: Green Bay, Seattle, San Diego

Perfect Game Score Predictions: 0

NOTE: The team with a negative number in parenthesis "(-3)" next to their name is the favorite to win the matchup and the number represents how many points the favorite has to score more than the underdog to count as a winning bet.  The over/under for the game is represented by a number in parenthesis with the letters o and u "(o/u 46)".  The number represents the amount of points you are wagering whether or not the two team's combined score will be in excess of or short of.  Official betting lines courtesy of www.footballlocks.com

LOCKS: Games that have a "*LOCK*" logo next to the score are my spread lock picks of the week.  I choose four games each week that I feel will be a lock to win the spread bet.  If I have an underdog winning against a favorite and it is a *LOCK* pick, it means it is a lock that the favorite will not cover the spread, not a lock that the underdog wins the game.

Don't forget to visit therealsportssavant.blogspot.com every week to check my game picks and check the previous week's picks for individual game pick results!  And now I present my Week 6, Sports Savant, NFL picks...

Tennessee v. Pittsburgh(-6.5)  (o/u 44)
Savant Spread Pick: Pittsburgh and the points to win ~ 34-13
Over/Under Pick: Over

Cleveland v. Cincinnati(-2)  (o/u 43)
Savant Spread Pick: Cleveland to win ~ 20-17
Over/Under Pick: Under

Indianapolis @ New York(A)(-3.5)  (o/u 43.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Indianapolis to win ~ 23-17
Over/Under Pick: Under

Kansas City @ Tampa Bay(-4)  (o/u 40)
Savant Spread Pick: Tampa Bay and the points to win ~ 27-20 
Over/Under Pick: Over

Oakland @ Atlanta(-9)  (o/u 48.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Atlanta and the points to win ~ 31-17 *LOCK*
Over/Under Pick: Under

Dallas @ Baltimore(-3.5)  (o/u 44.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Baltimore and the points to win ~ 26-20 *LOCK*
Over/Under Pick: Over

Detroit @ Philadelphia(-3.5)  (o/u 47.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Philadelphia and the points to win ~ 24-20
Over/Under Pick: Over

St. Louis @ Miami(-4.5)  (o/u 38)
Savant Spread Pick: St. Louis and the points; Miami to win ~ 16-13
Over/Under Pick: Under

Seattle v. New England(-3.5)  (o/u 43.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Seattle to win ~ 21-20
Over/Under Pick: Under

Buffalo @ Arizona(-4)  (o/u 43.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Arizona and the points to win ~ 27-20 *LOCK*
Over/Under Pick: Over

Minnesota @ Washington(-2)  (o/u 44)
Savant Spread Pick: Minnesota to win ~ 31-28
Over/Under Pick: Over

New York(N) v. San Francisco(-6.5)  (o/u 45.5)
Savant Spread Pick: New York(N) with the points; San Francisco to win ~ 23-17
Over/Under Pick: Under

Green Bay @ Houston(-3.5)  (o/u 47.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Houston and the points to win ~ 29-24
Over/Under Pick: Over

Denver @ San Diego(Pick)  (o/u 49)
Savant Spread Pick: Denver to win ~ 31-23
Over/Under Pick: Over *LOCK*

NFL Week 5: Win, Spread and Over/Under Predictions

Welcome to another week of The Sports Savant NFL Picks, Week 5 Edition!

With the return of the real referees, the games in Week 4 we're a little easier to predict.  The replacement refs were adding an unknown element to every pick and causing a lot of perfectly good prediction analysis look bad with their sometimes erroneous penalty calls and ball spotting blunders.  The Savant is back to form though going 10-5 in last week's games to win.  The spread still has much to be improved but there is still a lot of time left in the year to get it turned around.  It can be no coincidence also that last week I had four trifectas to two strikeouts where in the replacement ref games I was striking out at a rate I am not accustomed too, but everyone was for that matter with how unpredictable games were with the backup refs at the helm.

So with that comes NFL Week 5.  I'm looking to get back on track with the spread and continue my dominance in picking the winner and also continue a nice Over/Under record going forward.  Before we look at my Week 5 picks, lets take a look at my Week 4 results...


*WEEK 4 RESULTS*

Winner: 10-5   :-)

Winner w/ Spread: 6-9  :-(

Over/Under: 9-6 :-)

---------------------------------------------

Trifecta: 4

Strikeouts: 2

Perfect Team Score Predictions: 2 (Cleveland, Philadelphia)

Perfect Game Score Predictions: 0

___________

*2012 Overall Record*

Winner: 38-25 (.603)

Winner w/ Spread: 25-36-2 (.410)

Over/Under: 31-30-2 (.508)

--------------------------------------------

Trifecta: 11

Strikeouts: 14

Perfect Team Score Predictions: 8   [Week 1]: New England  [Week 2]: Indianapolis, San Francisco [Week 3]: Chicago, Washington, New York(A)  [Week 4]: Cleveland, Philadelphia

Perfect Game Score Predictions: 0

NOTE: The team with a negative number in parenthesis "(-3)" next to their name is the favorite to win the matchup and the number represents how many points the favorite has to score more than the underdog to count as a winning bet.  The over/under for the game is represented by a number in parenthesis with the letters o and u "(o/u 46)".  The number represents the amount of points you are wagering whether or not the two team's combined score will be in excess of or short of.  Official betting lines courtesy of www.footballlocks.com

LOCKS: Games that have a "*LOCK*" logo next to the score are my spread lock picks of the week.  These are the games I feel strongest about the outcome of the game versus the spread.

Don't forget to check therealsportssavant.blogspot.com every week to check my game picks and check the previous week's picks for individual game pick results!  And now I present my Week 3, Sports Savant, NFL picks...

St. Louis v. Arizona(-2)  (o/u 39.5)
Savant Spread Pick: St. Louis to win ~ 19-16
Over/Under Pick: Under

Washington v. Atlanta(-3)  (o/u 51)
Savant Spread Pick: Atlanta and the points to win ~ 31-24
Over/Under Pick: Over

Philadelphia @ Pittsburgh(-3.5)  (o/u 43)
Savant Spread Pick: Philadelphia to win ~ 20-17
Over/Under Pick: Under

Indianapolis v. Green Bay(-7)  (o/u 48)
Savant Spread Pick: Green Bay and the points to win ~ 27-16 *LOCK*
Over/Under Pick: Under

Cleveland @ New York(N)(-8.5)  (o/u 44)
Savant Spread Pick: Cleveland with the points; New York(N) to win ~ 23-17
Over/Under Pick: Under

Tennessee @ Minnesota(-5.5)  (o/u 44)
Savant Spread Pick: Minnesota and the points to win ~ 23-17
Over/Under Pick: Under

Miami @ Cincinnati(-3)  (o/u 45)
Savant Spread Pick: Miami to win ~ 19-17
Over/Under Pick: Under

Kansas City v. Baltimore(-6.5)  (o/u 46.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Baltimore and the points to win ~ 27-20 *LOCK*
Over/Under Pick: Over

Seattle @ Carolina(-3)  (o/u 43.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Seattle to win ~ 16-14
Over/Under Pick: Under

Jacksonville v. Chicago(-5.5)  (o/u 41)
Savant Spread Pick: Chicago and the points to win ~ 24-13 *LOCK*
Over/Under Pick: Under

Denver @ New England(-6.5)  (o/u 52)
Savant Spread Pick: Denver with the points; New England to win ~ 27-20
Over/Under Pick: Under

Buffalo @ San Francisco(-9.5)  (o/u 45)
Savant Spread Pick: San Francisco and the points to win ~ 34-20 *LOCK*
Over/Under Pick: Over

San Diego @ New Orleans(-3.5)  (o/u 53)
Savant Spread Pick: New Orleans and the points to win ~ 29-24
Over/Under Pick: Over

New York(A) v. Houston(-8)  (o/u 41)
Savant Spread Pick: Houston and the points to win ~ 27-16
Over/Under Pick: Under

NFL 2011 - Betting Lines - Picks To Win, Versus the Spread and the Over/Under: Super Bowl

It's that time of year again; time for the 46th edition of the NFL Super Bowl!  It's been a year to remember with so many different fun and interesting storylines.  In the end, we end up with a rematch of Super Bowl 42 with the New England Patriots facing the Giants of New York.  If you didn't catch my Super Bowl prediction last year, it was one of the best in America including a detailed game score and individual QB statistics that I hit nearly dead on as I guess the game score of each team off by only a single point and nearly perfectly guessed the statistics of each team's QB.  Here is what my Super Bowl prediction looked like last year and the results:

Super Bowl 45 Winner and Final Score Prediction

Prediction: Green Bay Packers - 31  Pittsburgh Steelers - 24

Outcome:  Green Bay Packers - 31  Pittsburgh Steelers - 25

Super Bowl 45 MVP Prediction

Prediction: Aaron Rodgers wins MVP

Outcome:  Aaron Rodgers wins MVP

Super Bowl 45 Quarterback Statistics - Aaron Rodgers

Prediction: 29/38(76.3%)  312 yards  3 TD  1 INT

Outcome:  24/39(61.5%)  304 yards  3 TD  0 INT

Super Bowl 45 Quarterback Statistics - Ben Roethlisberger

Prediction: 16/26(61.5%)  189 yards  1 TD  2 INT

Outcome:  25/40(62.5%)  263 yards  2 TD  2 INT

As you can see, it doesn't get any better than those predictions on last year's big game.  I will attempt to do that once again this year.  And now for my Super Bowl analysis and predictions!

Super Bowl 46, Analysis:
There's no question that this is one of the closest matchups we've seen in the Super Bowl in years.  It will be a game of strengths versus weaknesses as the Giants have one of the more potent pass offenses in the NFL right now versus the first defense in NFL history to finish dead last in pass defense and second to last in total defense, to ever make a Super Bowl, in the Patriots.


The Patriots have QB Tom Brady at the helm and anyone who has paid any attention to the NFL in the last decade knows what he is capable of in the Bill Belichick offense of New England.  Though they are potent on offense, they lack a couple of very important pieces that will ultimately cost them in this game.  First, is their lack of a deep threat WR.  The Patriots have no one on the offense who is very fast and can make a secondary have to play deep and let the underneath coverage stay soft for those post routes and deep ins.  Because of this lack of a speed receiver, the Giants secondary, which is the most suspect unit on the team, will be able to cheat up towards the line of scrimmage without that deep threat to account for.  This will make passing much more difficult for Brady because it will clog up those short and intermediate routes that he loves to hit on 3rd downs.  Add to that the unknown status of their second biggest offensive weapon, TE Rob Gronkowski, who scored 17 TD's, an NFL record for a TE in a season, hobbled by what looked to be a very badly sprained left ankle in the championship game two weeks ago.  Having Gronk, at likely much less than 100%, is a big blow to the sustainability of the Patriot offense.


The second problem the Patriots face is the lack of a real running game.  They have made due with a make-shift backfield all year between BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Danny Woodhead, probably better than any other team could have considering the football IQ of Bill Belichick.  Green-Ellis is a solid back, but not someone you have to stack the line to stop.  This will give the Giants the opportunity to drop back linebackers into coverage instead of needing them to crash down on blitzes to stop an elite running back that commands 8 or 9 men in the defensive box.  This will make throwing lanes get even tighter for Brady, already at the disadvantage of having the Giants secondary playing up because of that lack of a Patriots deep threat. Having no deep threat and a mediocre backfield will allow the Giants defense to play within their strengths and slow down the Brady led offense.


Conversely for the Giants, they hold a distinct advantage in this game in the matchup between the Giants trio of excellent receivers versus the Patriots' all-time worst pass defense in NFL history in terms of yards allowed per game average.  The Patriots lack any form of formidable pass rush which will give Eli Manning and those receivers; Nicks, Cruz and Manningham, lots of time to absolutely torch that very bad secondary.  A secondary so bad, mind you, that Patriots bench WR Julian Edelman checks in at defensive back regularly.  After watching what the Giants were capable of against the 49ers top 5 ranked defense in the NFC Championship, it would seem that the Patriots atrocious defense would not stand a chance of limiting the Giants offense.  Because the Patriots are so bad on pass defense, they may give extra help to the secondary by running a lot of zone-cover 3 looks from the Nickel package to plug up passing lanes.  If the Pats give secondary help though, it will break open some very wide rushing lanes for the very talented RB Ahmad Bradshaw and bulldozer RB Brandon Jacobs.  The Patriots D will be scrambling to give help both to the secondary and rush defense and as long as the Giants can recognize these looks by the Patriots, they will be able to take advantage of whichever end of the defense is not getting the help it needs to make successful plays.


So in the end, it will be the lack of Patriots defense against those skill position players of the Giants and a lack of any major offensive fire power against the Giants defense that will cost them this game.  When you look at those matchup advantages for the Giants and additionally throw in their most feared pass rush in the NFL, this game seems like an easy pick.  It will take some very serious Brady and Belichick magic to win this one but I just don't see it happening.  Something else to keep in mind going into this game is that the Patriots did not win a single game against a team with a winning record the entire year until they won their conference championship over the Ravens, but they looked awful in doing so and had to rely on a Lee Evans dropped TD catch late in the game to advance.  All of this considered, my final pick of the 2011 NFL Season is as follows:



New York(N) vs. New England(-3)  (o/u 53.5)
Savant Spread Pick: New York(N) to win ~ 27-21
Over/Under Pick: Under




Here are my individual statistical predictions for key players on each team:




New England Patriots
Tom Brady - 28/42(66.7%)  282 yards  2 TD's  1 INT  1 Fumble
BenJarvus Green-Ellis - 12 carries  68 yards/rushing 1 TD  2 receptions  14 yards/receiving
Aaron Hernandez - 5 receptions  58 yards  1 TD
Wes Welker - 8 receptions  96 yards
Rob Gronkowski - 4 receptions  21 yards
Deion Branch - 3 receptions  16 yards  1 TD


New York Giants
Eli Manning - 23/34(67.6%)  337 yards  2 TD's  0 INT
Ahmad Bradshaw - 19 carries  92 yards/rushing 1 TD  4 receptions  54 yards/receiving
Brandon Jacobs - 6 carries  31 yards/rushing
Hakeem Nicks - 5 receptions  114 yards  1 TD
Victor Cruz - 8 receptions 124 yards  1 TD
Mario Manningham - 3 receptions  28 yards
Jake Ballard - 4 receptions  39 yards


A big thanks to all who followed my picks this season.  Thanks for joining me on what was an extremely successful year making game picks.  Look for continued blog posts throughout the year on other sports topics and of course, next season when I will be picking all of the NFL games in the 2012 season!

NFL 2011 - Betting Lines - Picks To Win, Versus the Spread and the Over/Under: Conference Championship Playoffs

It's turning out to be an exciting final round of the playoffs before this season's Super Bowl!  And, in true Sports Savant fashion, my picks are getting more accurate as the importance of the games being played grows in intensity.  Not only did I finish with a perfect 4-0 record against the spread and 3-1 to win, but I picked my third Perfect Game Score of the season and my first since Week 2 of the 2011 NFL Season when I chose the Ravens to beat the Texans 20-13 in the Divisional Round of the playoffs.  The only pick I got wrong "to win" was the Giants, but I was one of the few people to even take them with the points so it was a very big upset.  According to my picks this weekend, we are going to have a Patriots vs. 49ers Super Bowl in Indianapolis this February.  Before we get to those picks, lets take a look at the rundown on my picks last week and overall this season...


*DIVISIONAL ROUND PLAYOFFS - RESULTS*

Winner: 3-1   :-)

Winner w/ Spread: 4-0  :-D

Over/Under: 1-3 :-(

---------------------------------------------

Trifecta: 1

Strikeouts: 0

Perfect Team Score Predictions: 2 (Baltimore, Houston)

Perfect Game Score Predictions: 1 (Houston @ Baltimore)

___________

*2011 Overall Record*

Winner: 178-86 (.674)

Winner w/ Spread: 130-125-9 (.510)

Over/Under: 127-131-5 (.492)

--------------------------------------------


Trifecta: 58

Strikeouts: 33

Perfect Team Score Predictions: 35   [Week 1]: Atlanta, St. Louis, Detroit  [Week 2]: Arizona, Tampa Bay, Minnesota  [Week 4]: San Diego  [Week 5]: Jacksonville, Denver  [Week 6]: Atlanta, Oakland  [Week 7]: Chicago  [Week 8]: Houston, Carolina, Denver, Cleveland  [Week 9]: Oakland, Tennessee  [Week 10]: Miami  [Week 11]: Oakland  [Week 12]: Tampa Bay, Chicago, Seattle  [Week 13]: Buffalo, Washington, Houston, New England  [Week 14]: Houston, Carolina  [Week 15]: Dallas, New York(A)  [Week 16]: Green Bay  [Week 17]: Jacksonville  [Divisional Playoffs]: Baltimore, Houston

Perfect Game Score Predictions: 3   [Week 1] Atlanta @ St. Louis  [Week 2]: Tampa Bay @ Minnesota  [Divisional Playoffs]: Houston @ Baltimore

NOTE: The team with a negative number in parenthesis "(-3)" next to their name is the favorite to win the matchup and the number represents how many points the favorite has to score more than the underdog to count as a winning bet.  The over/under for the game is represented by a number in parenthesis with the letters o and u "(o/u 46)".  The number represents the amount of points you are wagering whether or not the two team's combined score will be in excess of or short of.  Official betting lines courtesy of www.footballlocks.com

My picks for the Conference Championship Round Playoffs...



Baltimore @ New England(-7)  (o/u 50)
Savant Spread Pick: Baltimore with the points; New England to win ~ 26-20
Over/Under Pick: Under

It's plain and simple in this matchup; Do you trust Brady and the Pats sub-par defense to hold up or is it Flacco and the Ravens high ranked defense to slow Brady and that high octane offense down?  Based on recent performance, their is more reason to believe in the Pats than the Ravens playing at New England.  The Ravens defense had three interceptions last week, continuing their "ball-hawk" reputation but numbers are deceiving.  Those interceptions were all very easy pick-offs thrown by an inexperienced third string rookie QB in T.J. Yates, a far cry from the likes of Tom Brady.  The Patriot mystique will roll into the Super Bowl behind 2 TD passes and 317 yards on 37 attempts from Brady while Flacco will put up 260 yards and 1 TD passes on 22 attempts in the loss.  Other player predictions: Ray Rice: 92 yards rushing, 32 receiving 1 TD, Rob Gronkowski: 7 catches 106 yards 1 TD



New York(N) @San Francisco(-2.5)  (o/u 42)
Savant Spread Pick: San Francisco and the points to win ~ 23-17
Over/Under Pick: Under

With most of America on the Giants bandwagon after their playoff stunner versus the Packers, the 49ers are playing the disrespect card all the way to the Super Bowl.  They have thrived on being the underdogs all season(and don't be fooled by the spread. It's just Vegas' way of hedging the risk on everyone taking the Giants bet).  Nobody plays more physical than the 49ers on defense, a team who knocked out 6 running backs this season including last week's crushing concussion Donte' Whitner laid on Pierre Thomas that caused a fumble on the goal line.  The Giants will make a few big plays but keeping a consistent drive will be difficult against the NFL's top rated defense.  Eli Manning will throw for over 300 yards on 41 attempts and 2 TD passes, but the Giants running game will be stifled with my expectation that the Bradshaw/Jacobs combo will gain just 67 rushing yards.  Alex Smith will throw it more than you think likely tossing it 26 times for 267 yards and a TD.  The 49ers running back combo Gore/Hunter will combine for 136 yards rushing and a TD for Gore.  Other player predictions: Hakeem Nicks 7 catches 118 yards 1 TD, Victor Cruz: 4 catches 67 yards, Frank Gore: 94 yards rushing, 18 receiving 1 TD, Vernon Davis: 10 catches 121 yards 1 TD