Tuesday, February 8, 2011

I Made the Best Super Bowl Prediction You've Ever Seen ;-)

Just like any NFL expert or analyst, I did my share of research going into Sunday's Super Bowl between the Packers and Steelers.  I'm usually pretty good at analyzing the games from week to week, picking winners against the spread and I do my share of fantasy football and such, though I am not a gambler.  I make a Super Bowl pick each year and I have historically been right about the winner, but like most, the exact score has been an elusive guess.  This year, I didn't simply guess the winner and score, but I also put down a guess on the MVP and QB statistics on the game.  I felt confident in my predictions, but as eerily close as I would come to being spot-on surprised me.  I made my prediction at 6:06PM on Sunday, Feb 6, about 30 minutes before kickoff.  I posted it on my facebook status:

As you can see from this screen shot, this is a facebook status update from my personal page, showing my prediction of a Packers win 31-24 at 6:07PM on the day of the game.(see circled in picture).  Also listed are my MVP and QB statistical predictions.  Let's take a look at the predictions versus the outcome:

Super Bowl Winner and Final Score Prediction
Prediction: Green Bay Packers - 31  Pittsburgh Steelers - 24
Outcome:  Green Bay Packers - 31  Pittsburgh Steelers - 25

Super Bowl MVP Prediction
Prediction: Aaron Rodgers wins MVP
Outcome:  Aaron Rodgers wins MVP

Super Bowl Quarterback Statistics - Aaron Rodgers
Prediction: 29/38(76.3%)  312 yards  3 TD  1 INT
Outcome:  24/39(61.5%)  304 yards  3 TD  0 INT

Super Bowl Quarterback Statistics - Ben Roethlisberger
Prediction: 16/26(61.5%)  189 yards  1 TD  2 INT
Outcome:  25/40(62.5%)  263 yards  2 TD  2 INT

Now I'm not claiming to be the first to guess the Super Bowl within a point of it's actual score or even that it's never been guessed on the nose by someone, somewhere, but I'm sure it's rarely been done.  The score actually would have been on the money had the Steelers kicked a standard extra point on their final touchdown instead of going for two.  It's not just the Super Bowl guess that I had within a single point that I was surprised to see but even more surprising was the accuracy of my QB statistical predictions which are so much harder to predict with such accuracy.  I admit, my Rothlisberger prediction was not so spot-on, but no one would have guessed that a run-first offense would produce 40 pass attempts.  Even the Steelers would tell you if they knew they were going to pass the ball 40 times that it would only be if they were playing from far behind most of the game.  In a game that the Steelers would be close in, Ben will have less than 30 pass attempts and running back Rashard Mendenall will have more than 20 carries(he had 14).  Even though the number of completions and attempts were off on my Roethlisberger prediction, I did have his completion percentage about as close as you could hope to predict being off by just one percent.

The Rodgers picks could not have been any closer.  They should have been even closer when you consider that the Packers' receivers had five very easy dropped passes.  If they reign in those dropped passes, Rodgers goes 29/39.  My guess was 29/38.  I had Roethlisberger and Rodger's TD's and INT's very close as well.  I had them off by one in a category and spot-on in the other, guessing Rodgers would have an INT when he had none and I sold Ben a TD short, but had the TD and INT guessed correctly for one and the other.

Each and every year that the Super Bowl is played, I will always have a prediction of the score, the MVP and the QB statistics, but it will be no surprise if I never get all three this close in a single Super Bowl again.  Then again, I may get it even closer.  I am the Sports Savant after all. ;-)

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