Sunday, October 16, 2011

NFL 2011 - Betting Lines - Picks To Win, Versus the Spread and the Over/Under: Week 6

Week 5 was our first week without a full slate of games, but was unpredictable, nonetheless.  Some teams that had been struggling on offense finally put some good scoring games together, to the gambler's dismay.  It was honestly surprising that I managed to get one more over/under pick than I missed but it was a tribute to picking the over on most of the games.  San Diego finally covered a spread, Philadelphia continues to crush my picks as I would have them 5-0 with my picks this year and they are 1-4.  Seattle scored more points in their win AT the Giants than they may have scored all season and Carolina continues to ruin my spread picks in games they are involved in.  But that's why you take notes and start to use the trends of the games to help make good picks in the future.

Here is how I fared on my picks for Week 5 and my 2011 NFL Season overall record:

Winner: 8-5   :-)
Winner w/ Spread: 6-7   :-/
Over/Under: 7-6   :-)
Trifecta: 2
Strikeouts: 2
Perfect Team Score Predictions: 2 (Jacksonville, Denver)
Perfect Game Score Predictions: 0


*2011 Overall Record*
Winner: 51-26 (.662)
Winner w/ Spread: 36-38-3 (.493)
Over/Under: 37-38-2 (.493)
Trifecta: 12
Strikeouts: 6
Perfect Team Score Predictions: 6   [Week 1]: Atlanta, St. Louis, Detroit  [Week 2]: Arizona, Tampa Bay, Minnesota  [Week 4]: San Diego  [Week 5]: Jacksonville, Denver
Perfect Game Score Predictions: 2   [Week 1]:Atlanta @ St. Louis  [Week 2]: Tampa Bay @ Minnesota

NOTE: The team with a negative number in parenthesis "(-3)" next to their name is the favorite to win the matchup and the number represents how many points the favorite has to score more than the underdog to count as a winning bet.  The over/under for the game is represented by a number in parenthesis with the letters o and u "(o/u 46)".  The number represents the amount of points you are wagering whether or not the two team's combined score will be in excess of or short of.  Official betting lines courtesy of

Here are the picks and analysis for NFL game wagers: Week 6...

St. Louis @ Green Bay(-14.5)  (o/u 47.5)

Savant Spread Pick: Green Bay and the points to win ~ 44-17
Over/Under Pick: Over

Result: St. Louis 3  Green Bay 24 / Total Score 27 /
Winner: +  Spread: +  O/U: -

Green Bay had a small lull on offense in the first half of last week's game against the Falcons and were shut out for two quarters.  They got it back together quickly though and put up 25 in the second half while shutting out their opponent, the Falcons, at home.  St. Louis continued to look like a lost team going into their bye week, which they come into this game after.  Steven Jackson should finally be completely healed from that quad injury he experienced on his first rush of the season against the Eagles.  Sam Bradford has regressed in his sophomore season thus far at QB for the Rams.  The Rams will look better than they have without a healthy Jackson earlier in the year, but it won't be this week.  The Packers will simply be too much.  They will take an early lead and force the Rams and Bradford to pass the ball on most downs, which isn't their strength on offense.  Green Bay's explosive offense should be enough to supplement the few points St. Louis scores to top the over.

Jacksonville @ Pittsburgh(-12)  (o/u 40)

Savant Spread Pick: Pittsburgh and the points to win ~ 32-20
Over/Under Pick: Over

Result: Jacksonville 13  Pittsburgh 17 / Total Score 30 /
Winner: +  Spread: -  O/U: -

Pittsburgh proved last week that Big Ben and the aerial attack is in high gear with their 38-17 thrashing of the Titans.  Ben's 5 TD passed showed that his injured foot is not slowing him down.  Of course, it's never been his feet that make him a good QB.  Jacksonville looked mostly bad in a bad loss to the Bengals at home.  MJD is trying to do it all on his own while Blaine Gabbert learns QB on the job.  It's still a work in progress that's far from getting it together in Jacksonville.  Pittsburgh should handle them easy at Heinz Field.  Ben will continue a solid passing attack and MJD will have his moments in the game against a Steelers D that is still not as good as we are accustomed to that'll push the over in this one.

Washington vs. Philadelphia(-1.5)  (o/u 47)

Savant Spread Pick:  Washington with the points; 
Philadelphia to win ~ 28-27
Over/Under Pick: Over

Result: Washington 13  Philadelphia 20 / Total Score 33 /
Winner: +  Spread: -  O/U: -

Philadelphia is still on their skid with a loss to the upstart Bills last week and the Redskins are coming in off their bye week.Philadelphia has continued to disappoint people who believed in how good they would be with their frenzy of free agent additions this short off-season.  Mental mistakes and Vick being knocked out of the game continue to be the problem.  They have personally burned me as I have picked them every week to win and they are 1-4, but with an incredible sense of urgency, I believe they got it done against the Redskins... barely.  It's not often I'll take a different win/spread bet that is this close, but I really feel like the Eagles are going to squeak this one out by a point.  The Redskins rushing attack, which is highly ranked this year, will tear up the Eagles rush defense, which hasn't stopped anyone yet this year.  Vick and the high octane offense will simply outscore them so look for the over in this game.

San Francisco @ Detroit(-4)  (o/u 46.5)

Savant Spread Pick: San Francisco to win ~ 24-21
Over/Under Pick: Under

Result: San Francisco 25  Detroit 19 / Total Score 44 /
Winner: +  Spread: +  O/U: +


San Francisco comes off of a blistering win over the Bucs, 48-3 and look like they are starting to fully click on offense like they haven't in a decade.  Detroit comes off of a big win against the Bears on a Monday night football game last week.  Most are taking Detroit in this game and for good reason; they are undefeated to this point.  However, The 49ers are a single play against the Cowboys from being undefeated themselves.  In addition, the Lions have a short week this week coming off of the Monday night game which is also a slight disadvantage.  It's one less day to heal and one less day to prepare for their opponent, the 49ers.  Last week Detroit scored the only points in their game on very long plays and never really established a drive.  Their offensive line is not very good, despite their record and the 49ers great D-line should take advantage of it.  It will be a more defensive game than people expect, but the 49ers will find a way and defense will keep this game in the under.

Carolina @ Atlanta(-4)  (o/u 51)

Savant Spread Pick: Atlanta and the points to win ~ 31-24
Over/Under Pick: Over

Result: Carolina 17  Atlanta 31 / Total Score 48 /
Winner: +  Spread: +  O/U: -

*Perfect Team Score*

Carolina continues to surprise the nation by coming up short but highly competitive in their games so far with QB Cam Newton at the helm.  If they can get their running attack on par with their passing game, they can be an above .500 team.  They've given some very good teams a real scare with their quick-strike offense.  Atlanta hasn't quite looked like the team that went to the playoffs last year, but they are playing some quality football most of the time.  Because Carolina has come up so close in the last couple of games, the spread is too close.  Cam and the Panthers are due for a let down versus a very good team and the Falcons are still one of the NFL's top 10 best teams.  Their will be plenty of offense between these two teams and the over is almost certain.

Indianapolis @ Cincinnati(-7)  (o/u 41)

Savant Spread Pick: Indianapolis with the points; Cincinnati to win ~ 20-14
Over/Under Pick: Under

Result: Indianapolis 17  Cincinnati 27 / Total Score 44 /
Winner: +  Spread: +  O/U: -

Neither of these teams have looked good in most games this year.  Indy has a competitive game against the Steelers under their belt and Cincy has a win against Buffalo as the feather in their cap, but nothing else either of these teams have done this year is impressive.  Both have first time starters at QB and average defenses.  This will be a true war of attrition and the winner will be more determined on who doesn't make the big mistake than who plays the best.

Buffalo @ New York(N)(-3)  (o/u 50)

Savant Spread Pick: Buffalo to win ~ 31-26
Over/Under Pick: Over

Result: Buffalo 24  New York(N) 27 / Total Score 51 /
Winner: -  Spread: push  O/U: +

How the Giants can be a favorite in this game is beyond me.  We are talking about a Giants team that lost to the terrible Seattle Seahawks AT HOME last week.  Now they face one of the NFL's hottest teams and they are a favorite?  This line is just begging to take the Bills to win.  The Bills have one of the best offenses in football and has the most turnovers in the NFL on defense.  That's bad news for the interception prone Eli Manning.  The Giants will be doing plenty of scoring with their offense but the defense will not be able to stop QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, Freddy Jackson and that vaunted offense.  There is no question they will reach the over in this game.

Houston @ Baltimore(-8)  (o/u 44.5)

Savant Spread Pick: Houston with the points; Baltimore to win ~ 28-21
Over/Under Pick: Over

Result: Houston 14  Baltimore 29 / Total Score 43 /
Winner: +  Spread: -  O/U:-

Houston comes into this game off of the heartbreaking loss against the Raiders who were inspired by the passing of their owner, just the night before the game.  It seemed no one could beat the Raiders on that day.  Despite not having one of the NFL's biggest weapons, WR Andre Johnson, they still managed to move the ball on occasion and the help of new addition, WR Derrick Mason, in this past week's trade with the Jets, they could see some more production in the intermediate while Johnson recovers from his hamstring injury.  It wont be enough to stop the vaunted Baltimore defense though.  It was announced earlier this week that sack-master, DE Mario Williams, will be out the rest of the season with a torn pectoral muscle.  He was the most important person on that Houston defense.  Without him, they won't be nearly as effective as they have been in the pass rushing game which will give Joe Flacco the time he needs to throw the ball down field for big gains and third down conversions.  RB Ray Rice will show up big, if not real big when the Ravens have a lead late and need to kill clock.  It will be a close call on the over/under, but I think a Ravens defensive turnover for a TD or set up a short field will help push the over.

Cleveland @ Oakland(-6.5)  (o/u 44.5)

Savant Spread Pick: Oakland and the points to win ~ 24-10
Over/Under Pick: Under

Result: Cleveland 17  Oakland 24 / Total Score 41 /
Winner: +  Spread: +  O/U: +

*Perfect Team Score* 

Oakland is looking to cap off last week's emotional win on the road with an even more emotional win on the road since the passing of their long-time owner, Al Davis, on Saturday night before last week's game.  It's a fitting game for the Raiders to honor their late owner at home because the extra juice they'll be feeling in this game to honor the man who wrote their paychecks, will be not just enough to beat the sub-par Browns, it will be enough to blow them out and win big in memory of Al Davis.  Aside from the emotional factor, RB Darren McFadden is still the league's leading rusher and the Browns are a bit of a mess since the drama of the Peyton Hillis contract negotiations started getting sour in the media. I don't see any way the Browns can make this close considering all of the factors in favor of Oakland and what the Browns have going against them.  The under looks good here because the Oakland D will play inspired and the Browns offense is pretty stagnant.

Dallas @ New England(-7)  (o/u 55.5)

Savant Spread Pick: New England and the points to win ~ 38-28
Over/Under Pick: Over

Result: Dallas 16  New England 20 / Total Score 36 /
Winner: +  Spread: -  O/U: -

If there is one thing we know about New England, it's that they don't lose at home and they score more than 30 every game.  The Dallas Cowboys get WR1 Miles Austin back from a hamstring injury this week which will give the offense a boost, but unfortunately for the Cowboys, he doesn't improve their defense.  The Patriots should have no problem dissecting a Dallas team that inferior offenses have played like a fiddle at times this season.  Their is also the almost certainty that the good Tony Romo will turn into bad Tony Romo and make a huge mistake at a crucial point in the game that will give New England a definitive edge to win the game, just like he did against the Jets and just like he did against the Lions.  New England will win handly and with two offenses like these, in combination with these two defenses which are medicore at best, there is no option other than to pick the over in this one.

Tampa Bay @ New Orleans(-4.5)  (o/u 49.5)

Savant Spread Pick: New Orleans and the points to win ~ 34-17
Over/Under Pick: Over

Result: Tampa Bay 26  New Orleans 20 / Total Score 46 /
Winner: -  Spread: -  O/U: -


It's tough sledding for a Tampa Bay team that just traveled to San Francisco last week to receive an absolute stomping at the hands of the 49ers and then they have to come back and travel to New Orleans to face an even better Saints team that is even higher powered on offense.  Tampa's QB Josh Freeman is regressing much like QB Sam Bradford, both in their second year as starters.  Freeman already has the same number of interceptions through week 5 as he did all season in 2010.  New Orleans does nothing but get the job done lately.  Whatever way they have to win the game, they have been doing it.  Drew Brees has over 350 yards passing in each of his last three games and it should continue in this game.  Also look for RB Michael Turner to gouge the Bucs like RB Frank Gore did to them last week.  A big showing on offense by the Saints should post the over when combined with whatever the Bucs manage to put up on Sunday.

Minnesota @ Chicago(-3)  (o/u 41.5)

Savant Spread Pick: Minnesota to win ~ 21-20
Over/Under Pick: Under

Result: Minnesota 10  Chicago 33 / Total Score 43 /
Winner: -  Spread: -  O/U: -


Minnesota came out to another roaring lead in last week's game and then almost gave it up again in the second half.  Minnesota is a hard team to gauge because their first half results are that of a 13-3 type team and their second half results are that of a typical 3-13 team.  We still don't know what this team is or what it is really capable of either in a good or bad direction.  With that, I am guessing we will see the good Minnesota, especially in the first half, against Chicago.  Still with no real WR threats, RB Matt Forte still trying to be everything on offense for them and Jay Cutler unable to get even 2.5 seconds to throw the ball on every down, look for DE Jared Allen to make a living in that Bear backfield and harass Cutler all night. The Bears will play from behind and make a late run to come up just short of a win.  RB Adrian Peterson will be the most important player in the game and will be able to extend a few drives on the ground, late to run out clock on the Bears.  The over/under will be a squeaker, but I don't think these teams will have enough in them to get over the 42 points hump together.

Miami @ New York(A)(-7)  (o/u 42.5)

Savant Spread Pick: New York and the points to win ~ 19-10
Over/Under Pick: Under

Result: Miami 6  New York(A) 24 / Total Score 30 /
Winner: +  Spread: +  O/U:+


This isn't the Monday night football experience most thought it would be for this game when the schedule was released.  Both have taken a fall from grace this year.  In the Jets case from a Super Bowl contender to average and for the Dolphins, from average to in the NFL poorhouse.  The only significance this game will hold for Miami will be whether or not they lose this game to keep their Andrew Luck sweepstakes alive and the Jets are more desperate for a win than perhaps even the Eagles.  The Jets at home in this situation is simply too much for the Dolphins to face and win this game, but I don't see the Jets offense, that has looked atrociously bad in the last couple of weeks, getting it all figured out in a week.  They have too much to improve on to leap into high scoring figures.  They will struggle, but not as much as the Dolphins, who are starting now their 16th QB since Dan Marino retired in 1999.  Jets find a way, but it won't be pretty.  The under should happen with two offenses that have shown little scoring prowess thus far in 2011.  

 Thanks for checking out my picks and good luck in Sunday's games!

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