Thursday, November 24, 2011

NFL 2011 - Betting Lines - Picks To Win, Versus the Spread and the Over/Under: Week 12

Winner: 8-6   :-/
Winner w/ Spread: 3-9-2   :-(
Over/Under: 8-5-1   :-)
Trifecta: 3
Strikeouts: 2
Perfect Team Score Predictions: 1 (Oakland)
Perfect Game Score Predictions: 0


*2011 Overall Record*
Winner: 104-56 (.650)
Winner w/ Spread: 74-79-7 (.483)
Over/Under: 78-79-3 (.497)
Trifecta: 33
Strikeouts: 21
Perfect Team Score Predictions: 20   [Week 1]: Atlanta, St. Louis, Detroit  [Week 2]: Arizona, Tampa Bay, Minnesota  [Week 4]: San Diego  [Week 5]: Jacksonville, Denver  [Week 6]: Atlanta, Oakland  [Week 7]: Chicago  [Week 8]: Houston, Carolina, Denver, Cleveland  [Week 9]: Oakland, Tennessee  [Week 10]: Miami  [Week 11]: Oakland
Perfect Game Score Predictions: 2   [Week 1]:Atlanta @ St. Louis  [Week 2]: Tampa Bay @ Minnesota

NOTE: The team with a negative number in parenthesis "(-3)" next to their name is the favorite to win the matchup and the number represents how many points the favorite has to score more than the underdog to count as a winning bet.  The over/under for the game is represented by a number in parenthesis with the letters o and u "(o/u 46)".  The number represents the amount of points you are wagering whether or not the two team's combined score will be in excess of or short of.  Official betting lines courtesy of

My picks for Week 12...

Detroit vs. Green Bay(-6.5)  (o/u 56)
Savant Spread Pick: Detroit with the points; Green Bay to win ~ 31-27
Over/Under Pick: Over

Result: Detroit 15  Green Bay 27 / Total Score 42 /
Winner: +  Spread: -  O/U: -

Miami @ Dallas(-7)  (o/u 45)
Savant Spread Pick: Miami with the points; Dallas to win ~ 19-13
Over/Under Pick: Under

Result: Miami 19  Dallas 20 / Total Score 39 /
Winner: +  Spread: +  O/U: +

San Francisco @ Baltimore(-3.5)  (o/u 40)
Savant Spread Pick: San Francisco to win ~ 16-13
Over/Under Pick: Under

Result: San Francisco 6  Baltimore 16 / Total Score 22 /
Winner: -  Spread: -  O/U: +

Arizona @ St. Louis(-2.5)  (o/u 39.5)
Savant Spread Pick: St. Louis and the points to win ~ 19-16
Over/Under Pick: Under

St. Louis is strong at home(beat New Orleans) and they have Bradford and Jackson back healthy.  Arizona is still being quarterbacked by John Skelton while Kevin Kolb heals and Beanie Wells has a knee injury that will limit him.  Home team is usually a good bet when both teams are this bad.

Buffalo @ New York(A)(-9.5)  (o/u 42)
Savant Spread Pick: New York(A) and the points to win ~ 23-10
Over/Under Pick: Under

Buffalo MVP Fred Jackson is out for the year with a broken fibula as of last week.  Buffalo was already on a downhill slide and the Jackson blow makes it worse and continue.  Jets have little offense but field position created by their D and Buffalo lack of offense will give Jets offense easy scoring chances.

Cleveland @ Cincinnati(-7)  (o/u 37.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Cleveland to win ~ 16-14
Over/Under Pick: Under

Divisional games are the most unpredictable and this game is no different.  Peyton Hillis is making his return after several weeks out with various problems(Madden curse) but will be back and says he's 100%.  Colt McCoy is not great but very under-rated and so is the pass defense which is one of the best in the NFL.  Cincinnati may have a down game after a deflating loss to the Ravens last week and could get caught looking ahead in the schedule to future games against the Steelers and Ravens.  There are too many factors that point to an upset here.

Jacksonville vs. Houston(-6.5)  (o/u 37)
Savant Spread Pick: Houston and the points to win ~ 24-17
Over/Under Pick: Over

Matt Leinart makes his Texans debut after Schaub goes down for the year at QB.  That offense is predicated on zone running and short boot-keep passes to the backside, something that Leinart shouldn't have any problem doing.  He can't get the ball down the field any better than Tim Tebow, which is a problem for the return of Andre Johnson.  JAX QB Blaine Gabbert is still far from serviceable.  He's got the worst QB rating in the NFL making it hard for Jones-Drew to run between the tackles against defenses who put 8 in the box because they don't have to respect the pass.

Indianapolis vs. Carolina(-3.5)  (o/u 45)
Savant Spread Pick: Indianapolis to win ~20-19
Over/Under Pick: Under

Indianapolis is not going to go winless this year and this will be the game they snap the losing streak.  Carolina has not been very good at most facets of the game this year and the Colts have some good players that can expose those weaknesses.  Their strength has been their defense and that is what they will need to beat Cam Newton.  Looks like Joseph Addai will be playing for the first time in a few weeks so his return could be impactful.

Tampa Bay @ Tennessee(-3)  (o/u 43)
Savant Spread Pick: Tennessee and the points to win ~ 21-17
Over/Under Pick: Under

Tennessee has not looked spectacular in any games this year since Kenny Britt went down for the season, but they should win this game purely on the fact that Tampa Bay is just not as good as everyone thought they would be.  They have stars at the skill positions, but the line has been bad and Josh Freeman throws too many interceptions. Chris Johnson may have a nice game in this one; one of few this year if it happens.

Minnesota @ Atlanta(-9.5)  (o/u 44)
Savant Spread Pick: Atlanta and the points to win ~ 34-17
Over/Under Pick: Over

Atlanta has a couple of the most dangerous deep threats in the NFL going against a secondary that was bad with an All-Pro safety and now he's gone for the year which leaves you with an atrocious secondary.  Roddy White and Julio Jones might go nuts in this one.  Expect a big day from Matt Ryan and a few Atlanta forced turnovers against rookie QB Christian Ponder.

Chicago @ Oakland(-4)  (o/u 41.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Chicago to win ~20-16
Over/Under Pick: Under

I know Oakland is the favorite, but simply put:  Oakland lost to a Tim Tebow lead offense a couple weeks ago.  If they can lose to Tebow and an offense that has almost no star power, they can certainly be taken down by a team that has crazy skill at a number of positions between WR/PR/KR Devin Hester and RB Matt Forte.  Caleb Haney will get the start at QB and he is a pretty good QB that hasn't had much chance to play behind Jay Cutler.  People just keep disrespecting Chicago with the spread and they continue to win.

Washington @ Seattle(-3.5)  (o/u 37)
Savant Spread Pick: Seattle and the points to win ~ 17-13
Over/Under Pick: Under

Both of these teams have been very bad in some games, but Seattle has looked better in some games than Washington has looked even once this year.  Seattle beat the Ravens a couple of weeks ago at home, where they have one of the best home-field advantages in the NFL.  The game is in Seattle this week and how you can put any trust into Rex Grossman and the impotent Redskin offense is a wonder.

Philadelphia vs. New England(-3.5)  (o/u 49.5)
Savant Spread Pick: New England and the points to win ~ 29-24
Over/Under Pick: Over

Its' a key injury in this that makes NE an easy pick.  It appears All-Pro corner, Nnamdi Asomugha may miss the game leaving Wes Welker and the Patriot offense machine run through Tom Brady to get crazy on Philly in the passing game.  Even corner Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie is questionable for the game leaving the Eagles thin in the secondary; a terrible thing to be down at going against the NFL's best passing offense.  Vince Young could put up some points against the Patriot's last ranked pass defense but it shouldn't be enough to overcome the losses in their secondary against Brady.

Denver @ San Diego(-6)  (o/u 41)
Savant Spread Pick: San Diego and the points to win ~ 28-10
Over/Under Pick: Under

This Tebow experiment has to come crashing down at some point.  It's been riding so high from the miraculous comebacks, it is doomed for failure at a major level very soon.  People forget the Chargers had the league's #1 defense last season and not much has changed since last season for them.  It has been their offensive woes that have caused them to lose games.  Their is no reason this defense shouldn't be able to eat up the very simple spread offense Denver is using.  Philip Rivers should have one of his better games of the year against a mediocre secondary.

Kansas City vs. Pittsburgh(-10.5)  (o/u 40)
Savant Spread Pick: Pittsburgh and the points to win ~ 27-6
Over/Under Pick: Under

Not much to say here.  Tyler Palko still the QB for KC right now while they get newly acquired Kyle Orton up to speed on the offense this week.  Pittsburgh comes in well rested off of a bye week.  I'd be surprised if KC scores a TD.

New York(N) @ New Orleans(-7)  (o/u 50.5)
Savant Spread Pick: New Orleans and the points to win ~ 29-15
Over/Under Pick: Under 

The Giants have really shown how bad they are at running the ball with last weeks failure against even only 4 man rushes.  The O-line has done a very poor job at run blocking.  Eli can put something together in the passing game, but he relies on their defense to hold teams to under 24 points to win.  New Orleans should fairly easily be able to hang more than that on this Giants defense that has been up and down which will be too much for Eli's passing game to overcome.

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