Tuesday, August 28, 2012

NFL 2012 - Savant Prediction Recap of the 2011 NFL Season

We're back to that time of year, where America is winding down from a long, fun and hot summer.  The kids are enrolled back in school, ready to start the next level of their education.  College campuses become abuzz with the arrival of incoming freshman to returning seniors ready to start the new school year in fall semester classes.  In this Olympic year, we've seen the games of the thirtieth Olympiad come and go and the USA perform in dominating fashion.  The boys of summer in Major League Baseball are coming down the final stretch of their season and playoff pictures are getting clearer each day.  The coming of these events in the calendar year coincide with the most exciting and important of them all... it marks the birth of a new NFL season!

With a new NFL season comes a new and exciting year in picking the games here at The Sports Savant Sports Blog!  Last year was an amazing year for my Sports Savant NFL predictions.  Here are some of the highlights of my record setting predictions last year...
  •  In 2012, my final overall record from Week 1 through the Super Bowl, picking each game, was 180 - 87 which is a win percentage of 67.4%.  This record bested each and every one of ESPN's "expert" panel that consisted of ESPN NFL analysts Eric Allen, Mike Golic, Merril Hoge, Ron Jaworski, Chris Mortenson, Adam Schefter, Mark Schlereth, and Chris Wickersham.  Mark Schlereth finished with the best record of those experts and with just 176 wins, four games short of my 2012 record.  This record of 180 - 87 also bested any documented season long individual game predictions online from any panel of experts or amateurs. (If there was better I could not find it in many hours of searching).

  •  My prediction record of 180 - 87 also exceeded the computer simulation based system, Accuscore, which performed 10,000 computer generated simulations of each game to analyze tendencies in varying conditions to predict a winner.  

  • My picks also outperformed the ESPN based fantasy football game "Pigskin Pick'em" which was a collection of thousands of NFL game picks by game players assembled into a collective vote for the winner of each game.

  • I had 10+ wins picking the winner in 10 of 17 weeks and scored 12 or more wins in five of those 10 weeks of ten or more wins.  I also had a nearly perfect week when I went 15 - 1 in Week 14.

  • My record for predictions against the spread was 132 - 126 - 9 good for a win percentage of 51.2% which means if you used my predictions to bet on the spread for every single game last year, you made money. :-) 

  •  I correctly predicted the winner, the winner versus the spread and the over/under(Trifecta) in 59 of 267 NFL games last season (22.1%) while getting all three wrong in a game prediction(Strikeout) just 33 times (12.4%).

  • In 2012, I predicted a team's exact score(Perfect Team Score) 35 times in 267 NFL games (13.1%) and guessed the exact score of both teams(Perfect Game Score) in a game 3 times (1.1%).  Guessing a team's score in a given week has about a 50 to 1 probability (2%) and guessing a perfect game score has about a 500 to 1 probability (0.2%).

  •  My predictions got better and sharper in NFL Playoffs.  I finished a combined 12 - 8 (60%)  including 6 - 4 against the spread through the playoffs and Super Bowl.  It was capped by a 3 - 1(to win) and 4-0(spread) record in the Divisional Round and includes predicting the winner, winner against the spread and the over/under(Trifecta) correctly for Super Bowl 46.  I also scored a Trifecta Super Bowl Prediction in 2011 making this the second year in a row I've scored the Trifecta in the NFL's biggest game.

After a Super Bowl Prediction that looked of divine intervention in 2011 where I missed a Perfect Game Score by one point,  I didn't think it could get any better in 2012.  Here is how my Super Bowl 45 predictions from 2011 turned out...

Super Bowl 45 Winner and Final Score Prediction
Prediction: Green Bay Packers - 31  Pittsburgh Steelers - 24
-->Result:  Green Bay Packers - 31  Pittsburgh Steelers - 25

Super Bowl 45 MVP Prediction
Prediction: Aaron Rodgers wins MVP
-->Result:  Aaron Rodgers wins MVP

Super Bowl 45 Quarterback Statistics - Aaron Rodgers
Prediction: 29/38(76.3%)  312 yards  3 TD  1 INT
-->Result:  24/39(61.5%)  304 yards  3 TD  0 INT

Super Bowl 45 Quarterback Statistics - Ben Roethlisberger
Prediction: 16/26(61.5%)  189 yards  1 TD  2 INT
-->Result:  25/40(62.5%)  263 yards  2 TD  2 INT


Since I did so well on predicting the game score and individual statistics of the QB's in the 2011 game, I took on a prediction for last year's Super Bowl score and more individual player predictions and I couldn't have imagined I would have come out so accurately on them.  Here were my Super Bowl Predictions and the results in 2012...

Super Bowl 45 Winner and Final Score Prediction
Prediction: New York Giants 27  New England Patriots 21
-->ResultNew York Giants 21  New England Patriots 17

New England Patriots
: Tom Brady - 28/42(66.7%)  282 yards  2 TD's  1 INT  1 Fumble
-->Result: Tom Brady - 27/41(65.9%)  276 yards  2 TD's  1 INT  No Fumbles

: BenJarvus Green-Ellis - 12 carries  68 yards/rushing 1 TD  2 receptions  14 yards/receiving
-->Result: BenJarvus Green-Ellis - 10 carries  44 yards/rushing 0 TD  2 receptions  15 yards/receiving

: Aaron Hernandez - 5 receptions  58 yards  1 TD
-->Result: Aaron Hernandez - 8 receptions  67 yards  1 TD

: Wes Welker - 8 receptions  96 yards
-->Result: Wes Welker - 7 receptions  60 yards

: Rob Gronkowski - 4 receptions  21 yards
-->Result: Rob Gronkowski - 2 receptions  26 yards

: Deion Branch - 3 receptions  16 yards  1 TD
-->Result: Deion Branch - 3 receptions  45 yards  0 TD

New York Giants

: Eli Manning - 23/34(67.6%)  337 yards  2 TD's  0 INT
-->Result: Eli Manning - 30/40(75.0%)  296 yards  1 TD  0 INT

: Ahmad Bradshaw - 19 carries  92 yards/rushing 1 TD  4 receptions  54 yards/receiving
-->Result: Ahmad Bradshaw - 17 carries  72 yards/rushing 1 TD  2 receptions  19 yards/receiving

Prediction: Brandon Jacobs - 6 carries  31 yards/rushing

-->Result: Brandon Jacobs - 9 carries  37 yards/rushing

: Hakeem Nicks - 5 receptions  114 yards  1 TD
-->Result: Hakeem Nicks - 10 receptions  109 yards  0 TD

: Victor Cruz - 8 receptions 124 yards  1 TD
-->Result: Victor Cruz - 4 receptions 25 yards  1 TD

: Mario Manningham - 3 receptions  28 yards
-->Result: Mario Manningham - 5 receptions  73 yards

: Jake Ballard - 4 receptions  39 yards
-->Result: Jake Ballard - 2 receptions  10 yards

With detailed predictions like these going so well, I'm looking to carry that momentum into the 2012 season!  It's been seven months since the Super Bowl was played and won by the New York Giants and many of us who are fans of the game turned our attention to baseball, the NBA, NHL or a variety of things in life we do when we are not consumed with the NFL season.  As we all know though, the NFL is a year-round business with many of the important things happening in those months between the Super Bowl and the first week of the regular season the following NFL year.  I cover the NFL and the business of the NFL year round to stay on top of how teams are improving themselves through cuts, signings, coaching changes and draft picks.  This is just the first of many NFL posts to come on The Sports Savant Sports Blog!  Look out for my AFC and NFC Division and Team Predictions post in the coming days.  Welcome back to NFL football and The Sports Savant Sports Blog!

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