With as unpredictable a game as NFL football is, this is a day I knew would eventually come. When the winning play happened on Monday Night Football and the Eagles had bested the Colts, it was official; my streak of picking all of the NFL games each week, to win at a .500 cut or better had ended. My 7-9 finish in last week's games was my first time picking a week under .500, to win(no spread), since I started this blog in 2011 and picked every game of the season in 2011, 2012 and into 2014. It was a streak of 36 regular season weeks, snapped. :-/
As fun as streaks are, they are only streaks and it's the aggregate of a season that truly measures a prognosticator's predicting skills. The season is undoubtedly a marathon, not a sprint, and there is plenty of time to make up the difference by Week 17. On a more positive note, my Over/Under was hitting often this week and my 10-6 clip brought my season total back up to .500 in that category. Going into Week 3, I'm right where I want to be to achieve a .620/.540/.520 in the Win, Spread and Over/Under categories for the season.
After a gory Week 2 of action that saw many star players get tabled with injuries, the research into picking the games is going to get more intense. Backup players filling star player roles is the theme of Week 3 from RB Mike Asiata relieving RB Adrian Peterson(Inactive) in Minnesota, RB Lamar Miller relieving RB Knowshon Moreno(Broken Elbow) in Miami, RB Donald Brown to replace RB Ryan Matthews in San Diego(MCL Sprain), RB Khiry Robinson in relief for RB Mark Ingram(Broken Hand) in New Orleans and QB Kirk Cousins in relief of QB RGIII(Dislocated Ankle) in Washington. New offensive weapons are also emerging in the NFL like WR Kelvin Benjamin of Carolina, TE Travis Kelce in Kansas City and RB Le'veon Bell in Pittsburgh. The NFL is always a fluid league with situations changing and this season is no different.
Below is my overall record for picking games to win, against the spread and the over/under including trifecta predictions, strikeouts and my perfect team score and perfect game score predictions for the 2014 season.
*WEEK 2 RESULTS*
Winner: 7-9
Winner w/ Spread: 5-11
Over/Under: 10-6
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Trifecta: 3
Strikeouts: 3
Perfect Team Score Predictions: 1 (Green Bay)
Perfect Game Score Predictions: 0
*2014 Overall Record*
Winner: 19-13-0 (.593)
Winner w/ Spread: 16-16-0 (.500)
Over/Under: 16-16-0 (.500)
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Trifecta: 5
Trifecta: 5
Strikeouts: 4
Perfect Team Score Predictions: 2 [Week 1]: New Orleans, Cincinnati [Week 2]: Green Bay
Perfect Game Score Predictions: 0
NOTE: The team with a negative number in parenthesis "(-3)" next to their name is the favorite to win the matchup and the number represents how many points the favorite has to score more than the underdog to count as a winning bet. The over/under for the game is represented by a number in parenthesis with the letters o and u "(o/u 46)". The number represents the amount of points you are wagering whether or not the two team's combined score will be in excess of or short of. Official betting lines courtesy of www.footballlocks.com
Here are the picks for Week 3...
Tampa Bay @ Atlanta(-6.5) (o/u 45)
Savant Spread Pick: Atlanta and the points to win ~ 30-17
Over/Under Pick: Over
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Result: Tampa Bay 14 - Atlanta 56 / Total Points 70 /
Winner: + Spread: + O/U: +
Trifecta
San Diego @ Buffalo(-2.5) (o/u 45.5)
Savant Spread Pick: San Diego to win ~ 23-17
Over/Under Pick: Under
--
Result: San Diego 22 - Buffalo 10 / Total Points 32 /
Winner: + Spread: + O/U: +
Trifecta
St. Louis v. Dallas(-1) (o/u 44.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Dallas and the points to win ~ 27-20
Over/Under Pick: Over
--
Result: St. Louis 31 - Dallas 34 / Total Points 65 /
Winner: + Spread: + O/U: +
Trifecta
Washington @ Philadelphia(-6) (o/u 50)
Savant Spread Pick: Philadelphia and the points to win ~ 24-16
Over/Under Pick: Under
--
Result: Washington 34 - Philadelphia 37 / Total Points 71 /
Winner: + Spread: - O/U: -
New York(N) v. Houston(-2) (o/u 41.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Houston and the points to win ~ 32-13
Over/Under Pick: Over
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Result: New York(N) 30 - Houston 17 / Total Points 47 /
Winner: - Spread: - O/U: +
Minnesota @ New Orleans(-10) (o/u 49.5)
Savant Spread Pick: New Orleans and the points to win ~ 36-20
Over/Under Pick: Over
--
Result: Minnesota 9 - New Orleans 20 / Total Points 29 /
Winner: + Spread: + O/U: -
Tennessee @ Cincinnati(-7) (o/u 42.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Tennessee with the points; Cincinnati to win ~ 27-23
Over/Under Pick: Over
--
Result: Tennessee 7 - Cincinnati 33 / Total Points 40 /
Winner: + Spread: - O/U: -
Cleveland v. Baltimore(-1.5) (o/u 41.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Baltimore and the points to win ~ 26-23
Over/Under Pick: Over
--
Result: Cleveland 21 - Baltimore 23 / Total Points 44 /
Winner: + Spread: + O/U: +
Trifecta
Green Bay @ Detroit(-2.5) (o/u 53)
Savant Spread Pick: Green Bay to win ~ 32-27
Over/Under Pick: Over
--
Result: Green Bay 7 - Detroit 19 / Total Points 26 /
Winner: - Spread: - O/U: -
Strikeout
Jacksonville v. Indianapolis(-7) (o/u 45.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Indianapolis and the points to win ~ 32-20
Over/Under Pick: Over
--
Result: Jacksonville 17 - Indianapolis 44 / Total Points 61 /
Winner: + Spread: + O/U: +
Trifecta
Oakland @ New England(-14) (o/u 46.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Oakland with the points; New England to win ~ 27-14
Over/Under Pick: Under
--
Result: Oakland 9 - New England 16 / Total Points 25 /
Winner: + Spread: + O/U: +
Trifecta
Arizona v. San Francisco(-3) (o/u 42)
Savant Spread Pick: San Francisco and the points to win ~ 20-14
Over/Under Pick: Under
--
Result: Arizona 23 - San Fransisco 14 / Total Points 37 /
Winner: - Spread: - O/U: +
Denver @ Seattle(-5) (o/u 48.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Seattle and the points to win ~ 26-20
Over/Under Pick: Under
--
Result: Kansas City 20 - Denver 26 / Total Points 46 /
Winner: + Spread: + O/U: +
Trifecta
Perfect Game Score
Kansas City @ Miami(-4) (o/u 42)
Savant Spread Pick: Miami and the points to win ~ 23-17
Over/Under Pick: Under
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Result: Kansas City 34 - Miami 15 / Total Points 49 /
Winner: - Spread: - O/U: -
Strikeout
Pittsburgh @ Carolina(-3) (o/u 41.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Carolina and the points to win ~ 21-17
Over/Under Pick: Under
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Result: Pittsburgh 37 - Carolina 19 / Total Points 56 /
Winner: - Spread: - O/U: -
Strikeout
Chicago @ New York(A)(-3) (o/u 45.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Chicago to win ~ 27-17
Over/Under Pick: Under
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Result: Chicago 27 - New York(A) 19 / Total Points 46 /
Winner: + Spread: + O/U: -
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