NFL 2011 - Betting Lines - Picks To Win, Versus the Spread and the Over/Under: Week 7

The top stories for week 7 are the new backup turned starting QB's that will take the field for four teams and a couple of last minute trades that happened hours before the NFL's trade deadline that passed this past Tuesday at 4:00PM. QB's John Beck, Christian Ponder, Tim Tebow and apparently even Carson Palmer will be making starts this NFL weekend.  These new QB starts will make week 7 highly unpredictable, but we'll do our best to tread the facts and match-ups that may make the difference.  But before we do that, let's take a look at how I did last week and my overall season results...

*WEEK 6 - RESULTS*

Winner: 10-3   :-D

Winner w/ Spread: 6-6-1   :-/

Over/Under: 4-9   :-(

---------------------------------------------

Trifecta: 3

Strikeouts: 2

Perfect Team Score Predictions: 1 (Atlanta, Oakland)

Perfect Game Score Predictions: 0

___________

*2011 Overall Record*

Winner: 61-29 (.678)

Winner w/ Spread: 42-44-4 (.488)

Over/Under: 41-47-2 (.466)

--------------------------------------------
Trifecta: 15

Strikeouts: 8

Perfect Team Score Predictions: 6   [Week 1]: Atlanta, St. Louis, Detroit  [Week 2]: Arizona, Tampa Bay, Minnesota  [Week 4]: San Diego  [Week 5]: Jacksonville, Denver  [Week 6]: Atlanta, Oakland

Perfect Game Score Predictions: 2   [Week 1]:Atlanta @ St. Louis  [Week 2]: Tampa Bay @ Minnesota

NOTE: The team with a negative number in parenthesis "(-3)" next to their name is the favorite to win the matchup and the number represents how many points the favorite has to score more than the underdog to count as a winning bet.  The over/under for the game is represented by a number in parenthesis with the letters o and u "(o/u 46)".  The number represents the amount of points you are wagering whether or not the two team's combined score will be in excess of or short of.  Official betting lines courtesy of www.footballlocks.com

Here are the picks and analysis for NFL game wagers: Week 7...


Tampa Bay vs. Chicago (-1)  (o/u 43.5)

Savant Spread Pick: Chicago and the points to win ~ 24-17
Over/Under Pick: Under

Result: Tampa Bay 18  Chicago 24 / Total Score 42 /
Winner: +  Spread: +  O/U:+
*Trifecta*
*Perfect Team Score*
 

This is the annual NFL game that happens in the mid-season that is scheduled to be played in London, England.  The NFL has been doing this for a few years now and the only thing to determine from these games is that nothing is remotely predictable.  Each game that has been played there has had an unusual outcome by some rare or unusual circumstance.  Playing several time-zones eastward has to have an effect on the players in the game.  I believe a serious case of jet-lag will have a much greater effect on the offenses than the defenses and will keep the game relatively low-scoring, enough to keep it below the points line.

In an attempt to make sense of what will happen, I can say that though RB2 Earnest Graham is an ample backup to RB1 LeGarrette Blount, but doesn't have the same explosiveness that Blount has that will be needed to have an effective rushing attack against a very good Bears front eight.  I expect QB Josh Freeman will have a solid effort throwing for 250+, but it will be the red-zone that will be a bear for the Bucs.  The Bears O-line had it's first great showing in a long time and protected QB Jay Cutler better than they have in a long time.  It seems the line is gelling and in effect, Cutler is making less mistakes and throwing less interceptions(No picks in back-to-back games for only 4th time in career).  You always have WR/PR/KR Devin Hester ready to break a homerun play at any moment and it may make the difference in this game.

Washington @ Carolina(-2.5)  (o/u 43)

Savant Spread Pick: Carolina and the points to win ~ 27-19
Over/Under Pick: Over

Result: Washington 20  Carolina 33 / Total Score 53 /
Winner: +  Spread: +  O/U: +
*Trifecta*

After a four interception performance against Philadelphia last week, it's out with QB Rex Grossman and QB John Beck has been officially been given the keys to the offense.  Beck is 0-4 in his career as a starter, though bare in mind that was for the 1-15 Miami Dolphins of a few years ago.  He has since been a career backup and now is his chance to take ownership of an NFL starting job.

Though the Redskins rely more on their running game behind RB Tim Hightower and RB Ryan Torain at the helm, too much ineffectiveness at the QB position with John Beck will cause the offense to hick-up on occasion. The upstart Panthers under the leadership of rookie QB Cam Newton has been one of the surprises of the NFL this year.  Their record doesn't not reflect it, but they have been highly competitive against powerhouse teams losing in close games to Green Bay and New Orleans.

Because of the high level that Cam Newton has the Panthers playing, I think one of their big offensive days goes for a win for once this year, especially with that Panthers home crowd backing them.  I expect that the Redskins running game, combined with the Panther offense putting up points week-to-week, they should push over the points line.

New York(A) vs. San Diego(-2)  (o/u 43.5)

Savant Spread Pick: San Diego and the points to win ~ 24-17
Over/Under Pick: Under

Result: New York(A) 27  San Diego 21 / Total Score 48 /
Winner: -  Spread: -  O/U: -
*Strikeout*

The Jet's Rex Ryan found himself in some hot water in the media this week when during a media conference call he was asked what would have happened if he had gotten the job as the head coach in San Diego when he was considered for the job before Norv Turner eventually supplanted Marty Schottenheimer.  Rex said he thought they would have won rings if he had gotten the job, which in some effect was a diss to Turner for not having won a ring with the team and was a slight at his own players since they haven't won a ring with him in New York.

Small things like this can be extra motivating factors to get a team better prepared to play against their opponents playing the "disrespect card".  Regardless, the Jets look awful even in a dominating win over the Miami Dolphins in one of the least memorable Monday Night Football games I've ever seen.  The Jets rank second to last in rushing, which is head-scratching considering that their offense is built to succeed running the ball.  Their defense is holding up their end of the deal and continue to shut down WR's of every level and I expect they'll keep San Diego WR1 Vincent Jackson and WR2 Malcolm Floyd in check covered by CB1 Darrell Revis and CB2 Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie

The Jets average run defense will be suspect in trying to contain RB's Mike Tolbert and Ryan Mathews, both of whom I expect to combine for 150 total yards and a couple of scores.  Remember, before the Dolphins fell apart against the Jets last week, they dominated them 180 yards to 10 in the first quarter.  When the Jets look bad, they can look really bad. I just don't see this year turning out remotely as successful as the previous two years for the Jets and I think the Chargers are on an upswing from last year.  With as atrocious as the Jets offense can be and as good as their pass defense is, I don't see a way this game makes it over the point line.

Seattle @ Cleveland(-3)  (o/u 41.5)

Savant Spread Pick: Cleveland and the points to win ~ 23-17
Over/Under Pick: Under

Result: Seattle 3  Cleveland 6 / Total Score 9 /
Winner: +  Spread: push  O/U: +

There isn't much to say about this game and if I were to tell you I had a strong feeling on how this one will play out, it'd be a lie.  Seattle is a confusing team because we all know the old adage that west coast teams don't do well in east coast games at 1:00PM and they proved that theory right by going to Pittsburgh and getting spanked 24-3, but just a couple of weeks later, they went back to the east coast for another 1:00PM game and they beat the Giants in New York; a game that they were heavy underdogs in.  The combination of QB Tavaris Jackson and WR Sidney Rice in a reunion of their Minnesota playing days, just hasn't worked out at all.  RB Marshawn Lynch has picked up the pace for the Seahawks in the last two weeks finding the end-zone in both games, but their is no passing game to speak of thus far in 2011.

Cleveland has been a mystery because they have been without their star player, RB1 Peyton Hillis for most of the season thus far.  The Madden cover boy has lived up to the "Madden Curse" hype by missing games in strange ways, including strep throat keeping him out a couple of weeks.  The loss of Hillis has left the running game in tatters and a very inexperienced QB Colt McCoy is having to throw the ball 50 and 60 times as a sophomore QB half way through his second season.  That's been a recipe for losing.  One bright spot for the team is the emergence of WR Greg Little who has proven himself as a reliable possession receiver.

It's only the fact that Seattle has shown that it is capable of being one of the bottom five teams in the NFL and that they are having to travel to Cleveland for a 1:00PM game that gives the edge to Cleveland for me, but don't expect anything about this game to be pretty.  May be a defensive TD or two in this one, but with these bad offenses, I see the Browns making just a couple more big plays in the end. Inept offense means they'll stay under the points line.

Houston @ Tennessee(-3)  (o/u 44.5)

Savant Spread Pick: Houston to win ~ 26-20
Over/Under Pick: Over

Result: Houston 41  Tennessee 7 / Total Score 48 /
Winner: +  Spread: +  O/U: +
*Trifecta*

Houston is a team that has been battling injuries to key players all season.  Their RB1 Arian Foster who lead the NFL in rushing years and TD's last year, missed the first couple of games with a bad hamstring and no sooner than he could get healthy and contribute to the offense, their other major offensive weapon, WR1 Andre Johnson, went down with a hamstring and he is set to miss his third straight game this week.  Despite the injury problems that Houston has sustained, they have managed to put together a competitive game in every game but last week versus the Ravens.

Tennessee has been flying below expectations this year, especially in their rushing attack.No one would have ever guessed that the Titans would be dead last in rushing at this point in the season when they have had a healthy RB1 Chris Johnson for every game.  Johnson, amazingly only has one 100 yard effort in six games this season; a far cry from when he set the NFL record for yards from scrimmage back in 2009.  New QB1 Matt Hasselbeck has done a great job filling in this year for the departed QB1 Vince Young.

Despite Tennessee playing efficiently in the passing game so far, with their rushing attack leaving them asking more questions than providing answers and the Texans, who have the depth to make due without one of the game's most dynamic receivers, should spell out a Houston win.  Look for a potential contribution on offense from newly acquired Derrick Mason whom they signed to help fortify their WR team in Andre Johnson's absence.  The Titans and Texans will make just enough plays in the passing and rushing game to edge the over on the points line.

Denver @ Miami(-1)  (o/u 42)

Savant Spread Pick: Denver to win ~ 20-13
Over/Under Pick: Under

Result: Denver 18  Miami 15 / Total Score 33 /
Winner: +  Spread: +  O/U: +
*Trifecta*

We have finally reached the point of the season we all knew was inevitable for the Denver Broncos; it's Tebow time.  QB2 Tim Tebow is now QB1 Tim Tebow with a move that looks like it will be permanent.  The social pressure to put in the sophomore QB finally made the Broncos succumb to replacing QB Kyle Orton with the young backup.  Though he really did little to actually earn the starting job from Orton, he does have a dynamic that is unusual for a QB in his power running ability.  He's a great QB for the red-zone with his threat to run, but between the 20's will be an issue as he is only a 50% career passer through 3.5 games dating back to last year.  

What can be said about Miami that hasn't already been said?  They are awful.  They are in a dead heat with the Colts for the chance to get the #1 pick in the 2012 draft(and thus getting dream prospect QB Andrew Luck).  RB1 Reggie Bush has been the failed experiment that I knew he would be when I first heard he was being dealt the the Dolphins.  They have one of the most talented WR's in the game in WR1 Brandon Marshall, but there is little he can do when they don't have a real starting QB to get him the ball.  The Dolphins are still moving forward with QB Matt Moore and it looks like it will continue to stay ugly for them.

If Denver is going to win any games this year, it will be this one and with Tebow and the 2008 University of Florida Gator college football team being celebrated at the game, it will be a de-facto home game with thousands of Tebow supporters in the stands.  The energy and excitement of Tebow in what will feel like a home will be enough to give them the edge in this one, but I wouldn't look for this to be the beginning of a winning streak for the Broncos, but they get by the Dolphins on Sunday.  Both of these teams are stuggling a lot on offense and believe it or not, the Dolphins are just a year removed from having a top 5 defense and they can play some D from time to time.  I don't see them even getting a whiff of the over on the points line.  Go under.

Atlanta @ Detroit(-3.5)  (o/u 47.5)

Savant Spread Pick: Atlanta with the points; Detroit to win ~ 31-28
Over/Under Pick: Over

Result: Atlanta 23  Detroit 16 / Total Score 39 /
Winner: -  Spread: +  O/U: -

It appears Atlanta has gotten back on track to be being the NFC powerhouse everyone expected them to be coming into 2011 off of last year's breakout.  Atlanta has mostly failed to live up to expectations but a 31-17 beating of the Panthers, who have surprised people with how well they have played, may have given them the confidence they were lacking.  Detroit comes in off of their first loss of the year to the 49ers but looked very good in defeat.  They lost RB1 Jahvid Best to a concussion for this game, but I expect RB2 Maurice Morris to fill in well in his absence.

Detroit has quickly become the hardest team to play at home with that rabid crowd causing about 6 false start penalties a game for the opponent each game they play in Detroit.  It's an under-rated stat because a false start penalty can really get an offense off schedule and cause punts instead of first downs.  Aside from that, the Lions matchup as well as the Falcons at each position and have the mostly unstoppable WR1 Calvin Johnson.  I fully expect the Falcons and RB1 Michael Turner to run the ball effectively as Frank Gore did for the 49ers last week against the Lions, but Ryan and the passing offense will not be enough to compensate for the quickstrike offense of the Detroit Lions.  Johnson will get back to scoring TD's.  Look for him to have at least two in this game.  There are just too many offensive weapons on the field for this game to end up under the points line.

Kansas City @ Oakland(-6)  (o/u 42)

Savant Spread Pick: Kansas City with the points; Oakland to win ~ 26-20
Over/Under Pick: Over

Result: Kansas City 28  Oakland 0 / Total Score 28 /
Winner: -  Spread: +  O/U: -

This is another one of those games this week that will be difficult to determine the outcome in because there is a major decision at QB that will not be made until game-day.  Newly acquired QB Carson Palmer was set to start all week, but it appears that may have just been a diversion to confuse the Chiefs and make them prepare for the QB that isn't actually starting.  It was odd that they were even considering starting Carson Palmer considering he just walked in the door a few days ago, but it seemed reasonable when your only other option at QB is the horrible QB2 Kyle Boller since QB1 Jason Campbell went down with a broken collarbone.

Kansas City is still mostly in shambles, but the rise of unknown RB Jackie battle has them clicking a bit on offense.  As bad as they have been, we tend to forget that they still have QB1 Matt Cassel, WR1 Dwayne Bowe and RB slasher Dexter McCluster.  This team can do some things on offense.

In the end though, the Raiders and the leading rushing attack in the NFL lead by RB's Darren McFadden and Michael Bush will prove to be too much for the Chiefs.  I would pick the Raiders and the points if Palmer was starting at QB, but I'm certain that Boller will have at least one turnover that will turn into points which could very well be the difference in the spread.  This is a game that looks like it should finish in the under, but I'm taking the over.  Call it more of a hunch than anything.  You have to go against conventional thought when you make picks sometimes.  This is one of those times.

Arizona vs. Pittsburgh(-4)  (o/u 43)

Savant Spread Pick: Arizona to win ~ 21-20
Over/Under Pick: Under

Result: Arizona 20  Pittsburgh 33 / Total Score 53 /
Winner: -  Spread: -  O/U: -
*Strikeout*

This pick looks a bit crazy to start, but I have good reason for this upset.  Pittsburgh looked very discouraging against the lowly Jags last week in a game they won but not nearly in the fashion you would expect them to.  Though the defense held the Jags to 13 points, it doesn't say much considering they were facing a rookie QB and a team with no real WR1.  Arizona is coming off of a bye week so they will be fully rested and have had an extra week to prepare for this game which gives them an added advantage.

People tend to forget that head coach Ken Wisenhunt was a Steelers offensive coordinator for three years including a Super Bowl season in 2005.  He knows that personnel as well as anyone including QB Ben Roethlisberger whom he coached.  Add all of that on top of the fact that this game is a bit personal for some of the Cardinal players who were on the Super Bowl team that lost to Pittsburgh a couple of years ago and will want revenge.  Put all of that on top of the fact that the game is in Arizona, the Cardinals still have elite WR Larry Fitzgerald who can break out a homerun play at any time and the Steelers defense being suspect with LB James Harrison out and S Troy Polamalu dinged with a concussion last week, it all makes for a recipe for the Cardinals to squeak one out by just a point or two.

This game has lots of big play potential with two major deep threats in Fitz and WR1 Mike Wallace for the Steelers.  Even RB1 Beanie Wells is making a mark and is actually leading the NFL in yards per carry.  There will be plenty of offense but with the ineptitude that both offenses have shown from time to time will keep them under the points line.

St. Louis @ Dallas(-13)  (o/u 43.5)

Savant Spread Pick: St. Louis with the points; Dallas to win ~ 24-13
Over/Under Pick: Under

Result: St. Louis 7  Dallas 34 / Total Score 41 /
Winner: +  Spread: -  O/U: +

This is only the second largest spread of the week(IND @ NO) but I don't trust the Cowboys with a spread this large no matter who in the NFL they are playing.  Dallas is a team that tends to be overconfident, especially against teams that are far inferior in talent.  They have another tendency to play down to their competition even when they win.  Don't forget about the fact that RB1 for Dallas, Felix Jones, is out for a few weeks with an injury and the starter for the game will be RB2 Tashard Choice with help from RB3 Demarco Murray.  Neither of these running backs pose much of a threat to any NFL defense and frankly neither does Jones even when he is healthy.

We also can't forget that the Cowboys still have Tony Romo who is just as likely to throw it straight into the hands of an opposing player as he is to put it in stride to WR1 Miles Austin.  The Cowboys will win pretty easily as the Rams will likely start backup QB A.J. Feeley as QB1 Sam Bradford heals a bad ankle he sustained last week.  I'll just never trust Dallas with a spread that large until they can prove to me they can be a consistent team.  With Feeley at the helm for St. Louis and Dallas' potential inability to run the football at all, the game will be less offensive and the score should stay under the points line.

Minnesota @ Green Bay(-9)  (o/u 46.5)

Savant Spread Pick: Green Bay and the points to win ~ 35-13
Over/Under Pick: Over

Result: Minnesota 27  Green Bay 33 / Total Score 60 /
Winner: +  Spread: -  O/U: +

There is very little to say about this game.  Green Bay is an absolute terror on both sides of the ball and the Vikings will be throwing rookie QB Christian Ponder into the fire for his first start replacing the ineffective Donavon McNabb.  It's a tough break for Ponder to make his first start against the defending Super Bowl Champs and I think Ponder will be a nice QB in the NFL but not on this day.  The Pack will eat his lunch and they have too many offensive weapons for Minnesota to keep after on defense.  Green Bay wins running away and they may peak the points line with their own score so take the over with confidence.


Indianapolis @ New Orleans(-14)  (o/u 48)

Savant Spread Pick: New Orleans and the points to win ~ 31-14
Over/Under Pick: Under

Result: Indianapolis 7  New Orleans 62 / Total Score 69 /
Winner: +  Spread: +  O/U: -

There's little to know about this game to come to this relative conclusion.  We all know just how explosive the Saints can be, especially at home and we all know that Peyton Manning is still out and QB Curtis Painter is trying to learn how to be an NFL QB on the job still.  RB1 Joseph Addai is a surprise to possibly start this week coming off an injury, but it won't be nearly enough.  QB Drew Brees and his myriad of weapons, paired with an under-rated defense, will take of to an early lead and will coast through the second half to a win.  It's because of the thought that the Saints will take their foot off of the gas later in the game when they are up by a bunch and the ineffectiveness of the Colts that will keep the score under the points line.  This is not what the NFL had in mind when they scheduled this game.


Jacksonville vs. Baltimore(-8)  (o/u 48)

Savant Spread Pick: Baltimore and the points to win ~ 28-10
Over/Under Pick: Under

Result: Jacksonville 12  Baltimore 7 / Total Score 19 /
Winner: -  Spread: -  O/U: +

If the Sunday night nationally televised game was not enough of a yawner, I present the Monday night matchup.  This game should be nothing short of a slaughtering.  Baltimore has an incredible defense; one of the best in the NFL.  Additionally, they have the one of the best RB1's in the NFL in Ray Rice.  Jaguars QB Blaine Gabbert will be a deer in the headlights against the toughest defense he has yet to face in his very short career.  We all know what kind of elite RB Maurice Jones-Drew is, but no running back can carry the kind of load that has been asked of him.  He is constantly running into 8, even 9 man fronts because no defense has to respect the pass with a rookie QB and no threat at WR.  MJD will get his yards, but will be the only bright spot in what will be an otherwise bad day for the Jags.  The Jags will be so bad, in fact, that will keep the total score under the points line.

Those are the picks for Week 7.  Good luck!

NFL 2011 - Betting Lines - Picks To Win, Versus the Spread and the Over/Under: Week 6

Week 5 was our first week without a full slate of games, but was unpredictable, nonetheless.  Some teams that had been struggling on offense finally put some good scoring games together, to the gambler's dismay.  It was honestly surprising that I managed to get one more over/under pick than I missed but it was a tribute to picking the over on most of the games.  San Diego finally covered a spread, Philadelphia continues to crush my picks as I would have them 5-0 with my picks this year and they are 1-4.  Seattle scored more points in their win AT the Giants than they may have scored all season and Carolina continues to ruin my spread picks in games they are involved in.  But that's why you take notes and start to use the trends of the games to help make good picks in the future.

Here is how I fared on my picks for Week 5 and my 2011 NFL Season overall record:

*WEEK 5 - RESULTS*

Winner: 8-5   :-)

Winner w/ Spread: 6-7   :-/

Over/Under: 7-6   :-)

---------------------------------------------

Trifecta: 2

Strikeouts: 2

Perfect Team Score Predictions: 2 (Jacksonville, Denver)

Perfect Game Score Predictions: 0

___________

*2011 Overall Record*

Winner: 51-26 (.662)

Winner w/ Spread: 36-38-3 (.493)

Over/Under: 37-38-2 (.493)

--------------------------------------------
Trifecta: 12

Strikeouts: 6

Perfect Team Score Predictions: 6   [Week 1]: Atlanta, St. Louis, Detroit  [Week 2]: Arizona, Tampa Bay, Minnesota  [Week 4]: San Diego  [Week 5]: Jacksonville, Denver

Perfect Game Score Predictions: 2   [Week 1]:Atlanta @ St. Louis  [Week 2]: Tampa Bay @ Minnesota

NOTE: The team with a negative number in parenthesis "(-3)" next to their name is the favorite to win the matchup and the number represents how many points the favorite has to score more than the underdog to count as a winning bet.  The over/under for the game is represented by a number in parenthesis with the letters o and u "(o/u 46)".  The number represents the amount of points you are wagering whether or not the two team's combined score will be in excess of or short of.  Official betting lines courtesy of www.footballlocks.com

Here are the picks and analysis for NFL game wagers: Week 6...

St. Louis @ Green Bay(-14.5)  (o/u 47.5)

Savant Spread Pick: Green Bay and the points to win ~ 44-17
Over/Under Pick: Over

Result: St. Louis 3  Green Bay 24 / Total Score 27 /
Winner: +  Spread: +  O/U: -

Green Bay had a small lull on offense in the first half of last week's game against the Falcons and were shut out for two quarters.  They got it back together quickly though and put up 25 in the second half while shutting out their opponent, the Falcons, at home.  St. Louis continued to look like a lost team going into their bye week, which they come into this game after.  Steven Jackson should finally be completely healed from that quad injury he experienced on his first rush of the season against the Eagles.  Sam Bradford has regressed in his sophomore season thus far at QB for the Rams.  The Rams will look better than they have without a healthy Jackson earlier in the year, but it won't be this week.  The Packers will simply be too much.  They will take an early lead and force the Rams and Bradford to pass the ball on most downs, which isn't their strength on offense.  Green Bay's explosive offense should be enough to supplement the few points St. Louis scores to top the over.

Jacksonville @ Pittsburgh(-12)  (o/u 40)

Savant Spread Pick: Pittsburgh and the points to win ~ 32-20
Over/Under Pick: Over

Result: Jacksonville 13  Pittsburgh 17 / Total Score 30 /
Winner: +  Spread: -  O/U: -

Pittsburgh proved last week that Big Ben and the aerial attack is in high gear with their 38-17 thrashing of the Titans.  Ben's 5 TD passed showed that his injured foot is not slowing him down.  Of course, it's never been his feet that make him a good QB.  Jacksonville looked mostly bad in a bad loss to the Bengals at home.  MJD is trying to do it all on his own while Blaine Gabbert learns QB on the job.  It's still a work in progress that's far from getting it together in Jacksonville.  Pittsburgh should handle them easy at Heinz Field.  Ben will continue a solid passing attack and MJD will have his moments in the game against a Steelers D that is still not as good as we are accustomed to that'll push the over in this one.

Washington vs. Philadelphia(-1.5)  (o/u 47)

Savant Spread Pick:  Washington with the points; Philadelphia to win ~ 28-27

Over/Under Pick: Over

Result: Washington 13  Philadelphia 20 / Total Score 33 /
Winner: +  Spread: -  O/U: -

Philadelphia is still on their skid with a loss to the upstart Bills last week and the Redskins are coming in off their bye week.Philadelphia has continued to disappoint people who believed in how good they would be with their frenzy of free agent additions this short off-season.  Mental mistakes and Vick being knocked out of the game continue to be the problem.  They have personally burned me as I have picked them every week to win and they are 1-4, but with an incredible sense of urgency, I believe they got it done against the Redskins... barely.  It's not often I'll take a different win/spread bet that is this close, but I really feel like the Eagles are going to squeak this one out by a point.  The Redskins rushing attack, which is highly ranked this year, will tear up the Eagles rush defense, which hasn't stopped anyone yet this year.  Vick and the high octane offense will simply outscore them so look for the over in this game.

San Francisco @ Detroit(-4)  (o/u 46.5)

Savant Spread Pick: San Francisco to win ~ 24-21
Over/Under Pick: Under

Result: San Francisco 25  Detroit 19 / Total Score 44 /
Winner: +  Spread: +  O/U: +
*Trifecta*

San Francisco comes off of a blistering win over the Bucs, 48-3 and look like they are starting to fully click on offense like they haven't in a decade.  Detroit comes off of a big win against the Bears on a Monday night football game last week.  Most are taking Detroit in this game and for good reason; they are undefeated to this point.  However, The 49ers are a single play against the Cowboys from being undefeated themselves.  In addition, the Lions have a short week this week coming off of the Monday night game which is also a slight disadvantage.  It's one less day to heal and one less day to prepare for their opponent, the 49ers.  Last week Detroit scored the only points in their game on very long plays and never really established a drive.  Their offensive line is not very good, despite their record and the 49ers great D-line should take advantage of it.  It will be a more defensive game than people expect, but the 49ers will find a way and defense will keep this game in the under.

Carolina @ Atlanta(-4)  (o/u 51)

Savant Spread Pick: Atlanta and the points to win ~ 31-24
Over/Under Pick: Over

Result: Carolina 17  Atlanta 31 / Total Score 48 /
Winner: +  Spread: +  O/U: -
*Perfect Team Score*

Carolina continues to surprise the nation by coming up short but highly competitive in their games so far with QB Cam Newton at the helm.  If they can get their running attack on par with their passing game, they can be an above .500 team.  They've given some very good teams a real scare with their quick-strike offense.  Atlanta hasn't quite looked like the team that went to the playoffs last year, but they are playing some quality football most of the time.  Because Carolina has come up so close in the last couple of games, the spread is too close.  Cam and the Panthers are due for a let down versus a very good team and the Falcons are still one of the NFL's top 10 best teams.  Their will be plenty of offense between these two teams and the over is almost certain.

Indianapolis @ Cincinnati(-7)  (o/u 41)

Savant Spread Pick: Indianapolis with the points; Cincinnati to win ~ 20-14
Over/Under Pick: Under

Result: Indianapolis 17  Cincinnati 27 / Total Score 44 /
Winner: +  Spread: +  O/U: -

Neither of these teams have looked good in most games this year.  Indy has a competitive game against the Steelers under their belt and Cincy has a win against Buffalo as the feather in their cap, but nothing else either of these teams have done this year is impressive.  Both have first time starters at QB and average defenses.  This will be a true war of attrition and the winner will be more determined on who doesn't make the big mistake than who plays the best.

Buffalo @ New York(N)(-3)  (o/u 50)

Savant Spread Pick: Buffalo to win ~ 31-26
Over/Under Pick: Over

Result: Buffalo 24  New York(N) 27 / Total Score 51 /
Winner: -  Spread: push  O/U: +

How the Giants can be a favorite in this game is beyond me.  We are talking about a Giants team that lost to the terrible Seattle Seahawks AT HOME last week.  Now they face one of the NFL's hottest teams and they are a favorite?  This line is just begging to take the Bills to win.  The Bills have one of the best offenses in football and has the most turnovers in the NFL on defense.  That's bad news for the interception prone Eli Manning.  The Giants will be doing plenty of scoring with their offense but the defense will not be able to stop QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, Freddy Jackson and that vaunted offense.  There is no question they will reach the over in this game.

Houston @ Baltimore(-8)  (o/u 44.5)

Savant Spread Pick: Houston with the points; Baltimore to win ~ 28-21
Over/Under Pick: Over

Result: Houston 14  Baltimore 29 / Total Score 43 /
Winner: +  Spread: -  O/U:-

Houston comes into this game off of the heartbreaking loss against the Raiders who were inspired by the passing of their owner, just the night before the game.  It seemed no one could beat the Raiders on that day.  Despite not having one of the NFL's biggest weapons, WR Andre Johnson, they still managed to move the ball on occasion and the help of new addition, WR Derrick Mason, in this past week's trade with the Jets, they could see some more production in the intermediate while Johnson recovers from his hamstring injury.  It wont be enough to stop the vaunted Baltimore defense though.  It was announced earlier this week that sack-master, DE Mario Williams, will be out the rest of the season with a torn pectoral muscle.  He was the most important person on that Houston defense.  Without him, they won't be nearly as effective as they have been in the pass rushing game which will give Joe Flacco the time he needs to throw the ball down field for big gains and third down conversions.  RB Ray Rice will show up big, if not real big when the Ravens have a lead late and need to kill clock.  It will be a close call on the over/under, but I think a Ravens defensive turnover for a TD or set up a short field will help push the over.

Cleveland @ Oakland(-6.5)  (o/u 44.5)

Savant Spread Pick: Oakland and the points to win ~ 24-10
Over/Under Pick: Under

Result: Cleveland 17  Oakland 24 / Total Score 41 /
Winner: +  Spread: +  O/U: +
*Trifecta*
*Perfect Team Score* 

Oakland is looking to cap off last week's emotional win on the road with an even more emotional win on the road since the passing of their long-time owner, Al Davis, on Saturday night before last week's game.  It's a fitting game for the Raiders to honor their late owner at home because the extra juice they'll be feeling in this game to honor the man who wrote their paychecks, will be not just enough to beat the sub-par Browns, it will be enough to blow them out and win big in memory of Al Davis.  Aside from the emotional factor, RB Darren McFadden is still the league's leading rusher and the Browns are a bit of a mess since the drama of the Peyton Hillis contract negotiations started getting sour in the media. I don't see any way the Browns can make this close considering all of the factors in favor of Oakland and what the Browns have going against them.  The under looks good here because the Oakland D will play inspired and the Browns offense is pretty stagnant.

Dallas @ New England(-7)  (o/u 55.5)

Savant Spread Pick: New England and the points to win ~ 38-28
Over/Under Pick: Over

Result: Dallas 16  New England 20 / Total Score 36 /
Winner: +  Spread: -  O/U: -

If there is one thing we know about New England, it's that they don't lose at home and they score more than 30 every game.  The Dallas Cowboys get WR1 Miles Austin back from a hamstring injury this week which will give the offense a boost, but unfortunately for the Cowboys, he doesn't improve their defense.  The Patriots should have no problem dissecting a Dallas team that inferior offenses have played like a fiddle at times this season.  Their is also the almost certainty that the good Tony Romo will turn into bad Tony Romo and make a huge mistake at a crucial point in the game that will give New England a definitive edge to win the game, just like he did against the Jets and just like he did against the Lions.  New England will win handly and with two offenses like these, in combination with these two defenses which are medicore at best, there is no option other than to pick the over in this one.

Tampa Bay @ New Orleans(-4.5)  (o/u 49.5)

Savant Spread Pick: New Orleans and the points to win ~ 34-17
Over/Under Pick: Over 

Result: Tampa Bay 26  New Orleans 20 / Total Score 46 /
Winner: -  Spread: -  O/U: -
*Strikeout*

It's tough sledding for a Tampa Bay team that just traveled to San Francisco last week to receive an absolute stomping at the hands of the 49ers and then they have to come back and travel to New Orleans to face an even better Saints team that is even higher powered on offense.  Tampa's QB Josh Freeman is regressing much like QB Sam Bradford, both in their second year as starters.  Freeman already has the same number of interceptions through week 5 as he did all season in 2010.  New Orleans does nothing but get the job done lately.  Whatever way they have to win the game, they have been doing it.  Drew Brees has over 350 yards passing in each of his last three games and it should continue in this game.  Also look for RB Michael Turner to gouge the Bucs like RB Frank Gore did to them last week.  A big showing on offense by the Saints should post the over when combined with whatever the Bucs manage to put up on Sunday.

Minnesota @ Chicago(-3)  (o/u 41.5)

Savant Spread Pick: Minnesota to win ~ 21-20
Over/Under Pick: Under

Result: Minnesota 10  Chicago 33 / Total Score 43 /
Winner: -  Spread: -  O/U: -
*Strikeout*

Minnesota came out to another roaring lead in last week's game and then almost gave it up again in the second half.  Minnesota is a hard team to gauge because their first half results are that of a 13-3 type team and their second half results are that of a typical 3-13 team.  We still don't know what this team is or what it is really capable of either in a good or bad direction.  With that, I am guessing we will see the good Minnesota, especially in the first half, against Chicago.  Still with no real WR threats, RB Matt Forte still trying to be everything on offense for them and Jay Cutler unable to get even 2.5 seconds to throw the ball on every down, look for DE Jared Allen to make a living in that Bear backfield and harass Cutler all night. The Bears will play from behind and make a late run to come up just short of a win.  RB Adrian Peterson will be the most important player in the game and will be able to extend a few drives on the ground, late to run out clock on the Bears.  The over/under will be a squeaker, but I don't think these teams will have enough in them to get over the 42 points hump together.

Miami @ New York(A)(-7)  (o/u 42.5)

Savant Spread Pick: New York and the points to win ~ 19-10
Over/Under Pick: Under

Result: Miami 6  New York(A) 24 / Total Score 30 /
Winner: +  Spread: +  O/U:+
*Trifecta*

This isn't the Monday night football experience most thought it would be for this game when the schedule was released.  Both have taken a fall from grace this year.  In the Jets case from a Super Bowl contender to average and for the Dolphins, from average to in the NFL poorhouse.  The only significance this game will hold for Miami will be whether or not they lose this game to keep their Andrew Luck sweepstakes alive and the Jets are more desperate for a win than perhaps even the Eagles.  The Jets at home in this situation is simply too much for the Dolphins to face and win this game, but I don't see the Jets offense, that has looked atrociously bad in the last couple of weeks, getting it all figured out in a week.  They have too much to improve on to leap into high scoring figures.  They will struggle, but not as much as the Dolphins, who are starting now their 16th QB since Dan Marino retired in 1999.  Jets find a way, but it won't be pretty.  The under should happen with two offenses that have shown little scoring prowess thus far in 2011.  

 Thanks for checking out my picks and good luck in Sunday's games!

NFL 2011 - Betting Lines - Picks To Win, Versus the Spread and the Over/Under: Week 5

Leave it to the NFL to have what turned out to be an odd week.  No sport has greater parity than football.  I somehow managed to have 3 strikeouts out of the only 4 teams I lost on the head-to-head picks yet I had two trifectas out of the only 3 over/under picks I got right. I couldn't have tried to get 13 over/under picks wrong and done it successfully, yet somehow I managed to do it actually trying to guess the over/under correctly.  Nonetheless, I was pleased to finish a game over .500 in the spread to bring me a hair from even on the season and double digit wins on head-to-head picks is always the expectation, to which I finished a couple of games over as well.  Here is how I fared in Week 4 and my overall 2011 record to date:



*WEEK 4 - RESULTS*
Winner: 12-4   :-D
Winner w/ Spread: 9-7   :-)
Over/Under: 3-13   :-(
---------------------------------------------
Trifecta: 2
Strikeouts: 3
Perfect Team Score Predictions: 1 (San Diego)
Perfect Game Score Predictions: 0
 
___________




*2011 Overall Record*
Winner: 43-21 (.672)
Winner w/ Spread: 30-31-3 (.492)
Over/Under: 30-32-2 (.484)
--------------------------------------------
Trifecta: 10
Strikeouts: 4
Perfect Team Score Predictions: 6   [Week 1]: Atlanta, St. Louis, Detroit [Week 2]: Arizona, Tampa Bay, Minnesota [Week 4]: San Diego
Perfect Game Score Predictions: 2   [Week 1]:Atlanta @ St. Louis  [Week 2]: Tampa Bay @ Minnesota




NOTE: The team with a negative number in parenthesis "(-3)" next to their name is the favorite to win the matchup and the number represents how many points the favorite has to score more than the underdog to count as a winning bet.  The over/under for the game is represented by a number in parenthesis with the letters o and u "(o/u 46)".  The number represents the amount of points you are wagering whether or not the two team's combined score will be in excess of or short of.  Official betting lines courtesy of www.footballlocks.com


Here are the picks and analysis for NFL game wagers: Week 5...




Kansas City @ Indianapolis(-2.5)  (o/u 38.5)

Savant Spread Pick: Kansas City to win ~ 22-14
Over/Under Pick: Under


Result: Kansas City 28  Indianapolis 24 / Total Score 52 /
Winner: +  Spread: +  O/U: -


Kansas City finally came alive last week and produced some offense.  Matt Cassel and Dwayne Bowe are finally on the same page and they seem to be much improved after a woeful first quarter of the season.  The Colts may have put up a couple of touchdowns against the Bucs, but the points are deceiving because both touchdowns came on short passing plays that turned into long scores.  They did little to move the ball all game long.  The story won't be much different with Curtis Painter still at the helm this week against a KC defense that isn't as bad as they've looked early.

 
Arizona @ Minnesota(-3)  (o/u 45.5)

Savant Spread Pick: Arizona to win ~ 24-21
Over/Under Pick: Under


Result: Arizona 10  Minnesota 34 / Total Score 44 /
Winner: -  Spread: -  O/U: +


Arizona had a handle on the Giants last week and fell apart in the end to give the game up, but that's the Giants and this is the 0-4 Vikings.  Minnesota really showed how bad they are in their loss to previously winless Kansas City last week.  McNabb looks worse than even I imagned he would and I was one of the few that were being somewhat optimistic about him coming in with the Vikins in 2012.  They still have the beast, Adrian Peterson, but he can only do so much by himself and he doesn't play defense.  Kevin Kolb is starting to get on target with Laryy Fitzgerald and Beanie Wells showed signs of dominance last week in the running game.  It will be just enough to get by the Vikings in Minnesota.

 
Buffalo vs. Philadelphia(-3)  (o/u 50)

Savant Spread Pick: Philadelphia to win ~ 31-24
Over/Under Pick: Over


Result: Buffalo 31  New Orleans 24 / Total Score 55 /
Winner: -  Spread: -  O/U: +


Buffalo came back to earth a bit after a let down versus the mediocre Bengals a week removed from beating the mighty Patriots.  Between Buffalo's downtrend and the desperation the Eagles will be playing in hopes to keep their NFC East division title hopes alive, they will have the extra edge needed to make a few more plays.  We all know what Michael Vick and his bunch of weapons can do on offense and the Bills defense has been overlooked by the success of the offense.  They have gotten the team in to big holes and the offense can't always bail them out.  This should be a shootout.




Oakland @ Houston(-6)  (o/u 48.5)


Savant Spread Pick: Oakland with the points; Houston to win ~ 31-27
Over/Under Pick: Over


Result: Oakland 25  Houston 20 / Total Score 45 /
Winner: -  Spread: +  O/U: -


Oakland had a surprisingly poor performance on offense last week at home against a Patriots team that has been getting torched by average NFL offenses, which was especially surprising with Darren McFadden and the NFL's top rushing offense.  Oakland is proving again that it struggles with teams outside of the division.  I think this trend continues again in Houston.  Houston did lose all-world WR Andre Johnson to a hamstring injury and won't play for two weeks, but WR2 Jacoby Jobes will be able to fill in well enough for the Raiders to respect the pass and give Arian Foster those cut-back lanes he loves to use when he breaks long touchdown runs.McFadden will get his yards, but Houston will outscore them.


Carolina vs. New Orleans(-6.5)  (o/u 51.5)


Savant Spread Pick: New Orleans and the points to win ~ 41-23
Over/Under Pick: Over


Result: Carolina 27  New Orleans 30 / Total Score 57 /
Winner: +  Spread: -  O/U: +


Carolina proved it can move the ball on a good defense when they came up a bit short against the Bears.  They're undoing was on special teams when they allowed two huge run-backs by Devin Hester.New Orleans continues to click like the well oiled machine we remember of the past few years.  Darren Sproles is looking like the free agent pickup of the year for this team, not just filling in for the departed Reggie Bush, but actually outperforming him on offense and in the return game.  New Orleans took care of the Jags by 13 in the road, but it was a game they were clearly going through the motions after they secured a win and they could have poured it on heavier in the end.  Cam Newton has been sensational thus far into the season and I expect at least a 300 yard effort from him, but it won't be nearly enough to compensate for that New Orleans offense that will rev it up against a weak Carolina D.

 
Cincinnati @ Jacksonville(-2)  (o/u 37)

Savant Spread Pick: Jacksonville and the points to win ~ 20-17
Over/Under Pick: Under


Result: Cincinnati 30  Jacksonville 20 / Total Score 33 /
Winner: -  Spread: -  O/U: -
*Strikeout*


Cincinnati looked above average in a surprise win over the Bills, but the performance was more about a Buffalo letdown than it was about the Bengals coming out ahead.  The Bengals rode a home crowd to victory against Buffalo, but have to travel to Jacksonville this week.  The Jags' Blaine Gabbert is showing early signs of being an NFL level QB and they have the always dangerous Maurice Jones-Drew to carry much of the load.  The Jags have a much under-rated defense that can hold down Cedric Benson and the rush offense of the Bengals enough to keep them out of the end-zone most of the game.


Tennessee @ Pittsburgh(-3)  (o/u 39.5)

Savant Spread Pick: Tennessee with the points; Pittsburgh to win ~ 21-20
Over/Under Pick: Over


Result: Tennessee 17  Pittsburgh 38 / Total Score 55 /
Winner: +  Spread: -  O/U: +


There are a lot of signs that would point to Tennessee having the upper-hand in this game between James Harrison's injury helping Chris Johnson and that O-line produce a 100 yard day and Big Ben's sprained foot slowing him down or even Rashard Mendenhall's hamstring that may keep him out.  Ignore them all.  The Steelers will find a way to win this game, likely from a couple of Mike Wallace homeruns balls and a breakout run by the, faster than Mendenhall, RB Isaac Redman.  The Steelers will feed off of a frenzied home crowd and find a way to squeak out the win at home.


Seattle @ New York(N)(-9.5)  (o/u 43.5)

Savant Spread Pick: New York and the points to win ~ 28-12
Over/Under Pick: Under


Result: Seattle 36  New York 25 / Total Score 61 /
Winner: -  Spread: -  O/U: -
*Strikeout*


Seattle has been an absolute travesty since the first day of the season when they got blown out by San Francisco and shutout the next week by Pittsburgh.  New York has picked up the pace from what was looking like a bad start to 2011.  They had a nice comeback win against the Rams last week.  Surprise WR Victor Cruz has stepped into the spotlight for the injured Domenick Hixon, who is now on IR.  Bad teams on the west coast are especially bad when they have to travel to the east coast to play a good east coast team.  This game is the surest of any this week.




Tampa Bay @ San Francisco(-3)  (o/u 41.5)

Savant Spread Pick: San Francisco and the points to win ~ 24-20
Over/Under Pick: Over


Result: Tampa Bay 3  San Francisco 48 / Total Score 51 /
Winner: +  Spread: +  O/U: +
*Trifecta*  


San Francisco had one of the beswt comebacks of the season last week against the heavily favored Eagles and Tampa had an ugly win over a pretty bad Colts team on Monday night football.  The 49ers run defense has been one of the best in the NFL and should keep LeGarrett Blount and the Bucs running game in check most of the game.  They'll have to beat the 49ers with Josh Freeman and the passing game.  The Bucs showed on Monday night that their secondary is susceptible to the big play and they don't have much of an answer for San Francisco TE Vernon Davis either.  Bucs are coming off of a short week after playing on Monday and have to travel a long way to San Francisco.


New York(A) @ New England(-8.5)  (o/u 49)

Savant Spread Pick: New York with the points; New England to win ~ 31-24
Over/Under Pick: Over


Result: New York(A) 21  New England 30 / Total Score 51 /
Winner: +  Spread: -  O/U: +


New England made a defensive statement last week when they mostly shut down the league's leading rushing attack from the Oakland Raiders.  The Jets were an atrocity last week against the Ravens.  They couldn't do anything against that defense.  New England's defense is much more pourous than the stout D of Baltimore, but no defense can seem to hold down Tom Brady and the Pats offense.  Sanchez and the Jets offense will have a nice day, but the Pats have a big day on offense every week.  The 8.5 point spread is generous.  There's no question that this game will play out closer than that.




Denver vs. San Diego(-4)  (o/u 45.5)

Savant Spread Pick: San Diego and the points to win ~ 31-24
Over/Under Pick: Over


Result: Denver 24  San Diego 29 / Total Score 33 /
Winner: +  Spread: +  O/U: +
*Trifecta*


The Chargers are far too talented to continue to be held down the way they have been this season.  They have been winning games, but not by the margins they have been expecting against some inferior teams.  They have had a hard time covering the spread, but I think they do it this week against a Denver team that is beyond the worst teams they have faced this year.  Denver usually plays tough at home, but San Diego is just too good, especially with the emergence of Ryan Mathews and a healthy Malcom Floyd and Vincent Jackson.  Denver will only win 3 or 4 games this year and this is just not one of them.
 


Atlanta vs. Green Bay(-6)  (o/u 53)

Savant Spread Pick: Green Bay and the points to win ~ 37-27
Over/Under Pick: Over


Result: Atlanta 14  Green Bay 25 / Total Score 39 /
Winner: +  Spread: +  O/U: -


No team is hotter than Green bay coming off of their 49 point shalacking of the Broncos at home.  The offense is clicking in every way.  They managed to put up those 49 points without even using arguably their greatest offensive weapon in Jermichael Finley.  Atlanta has been playing on a level lower than most expected.  Nothing about them is a glaring weakness but they are simply not making plays when they need them the most.  Michael Turner still looks like the same beast of a RB we've always known, but Matt Ryan hasn't been that sharp, Julio Jones hasn't had the impact most expected after the Falcons traded up to draft him this year and Roddy White very uncharacteristically leads the NFL in dropped balls.  In addition, the Falcons defense has been less than outstanding which is a real problem when facing the offensive juggernaut, Packers.  Atlanta hardly ever loses at home, but this will be an exception.



Chicago @ Detroit(-5)  (o/u 47.5)

Savant Spread Pick: Detroit and the points to win ~ 31-17  
Over/Under Pick: Over


Result: Chicago 13  Detroit 24 / Total Score 37 /
Winner: +  Spread: +  O/U: -  



This is the first time a Monday Night Football game has been played in Detroit in recent memory and the fans will be as much of a factor as any crowd can be in an NFL game.  The energy the Lions will be playing with and the motivation they will have in this game to prove to the NFL that they are a team to be reckoned with.  Add that to their dangerous offense with Calvin Johnson and Matthew Stafford and the best defensive line in football to stop the Bears' only weapon, RB Matt Forte.  Jay Cutler will be sacked at least 5 times in this game with their terrible offensive line and the stout D of thr Lions.  Look for rookie DT Nick Fairley, who has not yet played because of a foot injury, to make an impact in his first NFL start on Monday.



I hope this guide proved to be helpful!  Look out for my NFL picks each and every week!