NFL 2012 - Betting Lines - Picks To Win, Versus the Spread and the Over/Under: Week 2

Welcome Back to The Sports Savant's Weekly NFL Picks!

What a surprising week we had in Week 1 of the NFL season.  Many teams performed much better than we expected and many teams also fell well short of expectations.  Because of the erratic nature of Week 1 in the 2012 NFL season, my picks from last week were quite marginal, but many picks were wrong by the experts this past week based on these unusual outcomes.

We had a rookie QB score 40 team points in his debut, the most in NFL history, and against the Saints in the Superdome of all places(RGIII).  We had a team that scored the fewest points in the preseason score the most points in Week 1(Jets, 48 points).  We had a team that defeated an opponent on the road for the first time since 1990(49ers over Packers) and we had last year's worst rush defense put up the best rushing defensive effort in the NFL in Week 1 versus one of the best rushing teams from 2011(Bucs over Panthers).  Already the NFL has been full of surprises!  Nevertheless, it's back to the picking board for Week 2.  But before we look at the Week 2 picks, lets look at a recap of my Week 1 picks...

*WEEK 1 RESULTS*

Winner: 9-7   :-/

Winner w/ Spread: 6-10  :-(

Over/Under: 7-8-1 :-/

---------------------------------------------

Trifecta: 2

Strikeouts: 5

Perfect Team Score Predictions: 1 (New England)

Perfect Game Score Predictions: 0

___________

*2012 Overall Record*

Winner: 9-7 (.562)

Winner w/ Spread: 6-10 (.375)

Over/Under: 7-8-1 (.467)

--------------------------------------------


Trifecta: 2

Strikeouts: 5

Perfect Team Score Predictions: 1   [Week 1]: New England

Perfect Game Score Predictions: 0

NOTE: The team with a negative number in parenthesis "(-3)" next to their name is the favorite to win the matchup and the number represents how many points the favorite has to score more than the underdog to count as a winning bet.  The over/under for the game is represented by a number in parenthesis with the letters o and u "(o/u 46)".  The number represents the amount of points you are wagering whether or not the two team's combined score will be in excess of or short of.  Official betting lines courtesy of www.footballlocks.com

Don't forget to check therealsportssavant.blogspot.com every week to check my game picks and the results of my picks from the previous week!  And now your Sports Savant, Week 2 NFL picks...

Chicago @ Green Bay(-4.5)  (o/u 51)
Savant Spread Pick: Green Bay and the points to win ~ 34-24
Over/Under Pick: Over
---
Result: Chicago 10  Green Bay 23 / Total Points 33 /
Winner: +  Spread: +  O/U: -

Tampa Bay @ New York(N)(-7)  (o/u 44)
Savant Spread Pick: New York(N) and the points to win ~ 31-20
Over/Under Pick: Over
---
Result: Tampa Bay 34  New York(N) 41 / Total Points 75 /
Winner: +  Spread: push  O/U: +

Arizona @ New England(-13.5)  (o/u 48.5)
Savant Spread Pick: New England and the points to win ~ 38-16
Over/Under Pick: Over
---
Result: Arizona 20  New England 18 / Total Points 38 /
Winner: -  Spread: -  O/U: -
*Strikeout*

Indianapolis v. Minnesota(-3)  (o/u 45.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Minnesota and the points to win ~ 27-23
Over/Under Pick: Over
---
Result: Indianapolis 23  Minnesota 20 / Total Points 43 /
Winner: -  Spread: -  O/U: -
*Strikeout*

Carolina v. New Orleans(-2.5)  (o/u 51.5)
Savant Spread Pick: New Orleans and the points to win ~ 31-28
Over/Under Pick: Over
---
Result: Carolina 35  New Orleans 27 / Total Points 62 /
Winner: -  Spread: -  O/U: +

Kansas City @ Buffalo(-3)  (o/u 45)
Savant Spread Pick: Kansas City to win ~ 27-20
Over/Under Pick: Over
---
Result: Kansas City 17  Buffalo 35 / Total Points 52 /
Winner: -  Spread: -  O/U: +

Baltimore @ Philadelphia(-2.5)  (o/u 46.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Philadelphia and the points to win ~ 20-17
Over/Under Pick: Under
---
Result: Baltimore 23  Philadelphia 24 / Total Points 47 /
Winner: +  Spread: -  O/U: -

Miami v. Oakland(-2.5)  (o/u 39)
Savant Spread Pick: Miami to win ~ 17-14
Over/Under Pick: Under
---
Result: Miami 35  Oakland 13 / Total Points 48 /
Winner: +  Spread: +  O/U: -

Cleveland @ Cincinnati(-7)  (o/u 39)
Savant Spread Pick: Cincinnati and the points to win ~ 24-10
Over/Under Pick: Under
---
Result: Cleveland 27  Cincinnati 34 / Total Points 61 /
Winner: +  Spread: push  O/U: -

Jacksonville v. Houston(-7)  (o/u 41)
Savant Spread Pick: Jacksonville with the points; Houston to win ~ 17-14
Over/Under Pick: Under
---
Result: Jacksonville 7  Houston 27 / Total Points 34 /
Winner: +  Spread: -  O/U: +

Seattle v. Dallas(-3)  (o/u 42.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Dallas and the points to win ~ 21-17
Over/Under Pick: Under
---
Result: Seattle 27  Dallas 7 / Total Points 34 /
Winner: -  Spread: -  O/U: +

St. Louis v. Washington(-3.5)  (o/u 44)
Savant Spread Pick: St. Louis to win ~ 24-21
Over/Under Pick: Over
---
Result: St. Louis 31  Washington 28 / Total Points 59 /
Winner: +  Spread: +  O/U: +
*Trifecta*

New York(A) @ Pittsburgh(-5)  (o/u 42)
Savant Spread Pick: Pittsburgh and the points to win ~ 24-14
Over/Under Pick: Under
---
Result: New York(A) 10  Pittsburgh 27 / Total Points 37 /
Winner: +  Spread: +  O/U: +
*Trifecta*

Tennessee @ San Diego(-6.5)  (o/u 43)
Savant Spread Pick: San Diego and the points to win ~ 27-17
Over/Under Pick: Over
---
Result: Tennessee 10  San Diego 38 / Total Points 48 /
Winner: +  Spread: +  O/U: +
*Trifecta*

Detroit @ San Francisco(-7)  (o/u 46)
Savant Spread Pick: San Francisco and the points to win ~ 27-16
Over/Under Pick: Under
---
Result: Detroit 19  San Francisco 27 / Total Points 46 /
Winner: +  Spread: +  O/U: push

Denver @ Atlanta(-3)  (o/u 44)
Savant Spread Pick: Atlanta and the points to win ~ 31-27
Over/Under Pick: Over
 ---
Result: Denver 21  Atlanta 27 / Total Points 48 /
Winner: +  Spread: +  O/U: -

NFL 2012 - Betting Lines - Picks To Win, Versus the Spread and the Over/Under: Week 1

Welcome Back to The Sports Savant's Weekly NFL Picks!

The 2012 NFL season is upon us and with the return of regular season football means the return of the Sports Savant's NFL game predictions!  The New York Giants and Dallas Cowboys kicked off the 2012 season at MetLife Stadium on Wednesday where the Cowboys took home the victory in a highly contested competition.  The Cowboys left me reeling with a strikeout of my picks on the game, but it's just one game and there are a full slate of games to get it turned around!  Last year I achieved a cool 180 - 87 record, good for the best record on picking "to win" in the country last season.  Could I possibly do better?  It'd be an almost impossible feat, but it's worth trying!  As I did last year, I will be keeping a public record and statistical breakdown of my selections each week.  Without further adieu, here are my first NFL game picks of the 2012 season!

NOTE: The team with a negative number in parenthesis "(-3)" next to their name is the favorite to win the matchup and the number represents how many points the favorite has to score more than the underdog to count as a winning bet with the points spread.  The over/under for the game is represented by a number in parenthesis with the letters o and u "(o/u 46)".  The number represents the amount of points you are wagering whether or not the two team's combined score will be in excess of or short of.  Official betting lines courtesy of www.footballlocks.com

Dallas @ New York(N)(-3.5)  (o/u 45.5)
Savant Spread Pick: New York(N) and the points to win ~ 31-21
Over/Under Pick: Over
 ---
Result: Dallas 24  New York(N) 17 / Total Points 41 /
Winner: -  Spread: -  O/U: -
*Strikeout*

Indianapolis @ Chicago(-3.5)  (o/u 45.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Chicago and the points to win ~ 31-17
Over/Under Pick: Over
 ---
Result: Indianapolis 21  Chicago 41 / Total Points 62 /
Winner: +  Spread: +  O/U: +
*Trifecta*

Cleveland v. Philadelphia(-9)  (o/u 43)
Savant Spread Pick: Philadelphia and the points to win ~ 27-13
Over/Under Pick: Under
 ---
Result: Cleveland 16  Philadelphia 17 / Total Points 33 /
Winner: +  Spread: -  O/U: +

Buffalo @ New York(A)(-3)  (o/u 38.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Buffalo to win ~ 21-13
Over/Under Pick: Under
 ---
Result: Buffalo 28  New York(A) 48 / Total Points 76 /
Winner: -  Spread: -  O/U: -
*Strikeout*

Washington @ New Orleans(-7.5)  (o/u 50)
Savant Spread Pick: New Orleans and the points to win ~ 34-17
Over/Under Pick: Under
 ---
Result: Washington 40  New Orleans 32 / Total Points 72 /
Winner: -  Spread: -  O/U: -
*Strikeout*

Tennessee v. New England(-5.5)  (o/u 47)
Savant Spread Pick: New England and the points to win ~ 34-20
Over/Under Pick: Over
 ---
Result: Tennessee 13  New England 34 / Total Points 47 /
Winner: +  Spread: +  O/U: push

Jacksonville @ Minnesota(-3.5)  (o/u 39.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Minnesota and the points to win ~ 21-17
Over/Under Pick: Under
 ---
Result: Jacksonville 23  Minnesota 26 / Total Points 49 /
Winner: +  Spread: -  O/U: -

Miami @ Houston(-12)  (o/u 42.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Houston and the points to win ~ 31-9
Over/Under Pick: Under
 ---
Result: Miami 10  Houston 30 / Total Points 40 /
Winner: +  Spread: +  O/U: +
*Trifecta*

 

St. Louis @ Detroit(-7.5)  (o/u 45.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Detroit and the points to win ~ 38-13
Over/Under Pick: Over
 ---
Result: St. Louis 23  Detroit 27 / Total Points 50 /
Winner: +  Spread: -  O/U: +

Kansas City v. Atlanta(-3.5)  (o/u 43.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Kansas City to win ~ 21-20
Over/Under Pick: Under
 ---
Result: Kansas City 24  Atlanta 40 / Total Points 64 /
Winner: -  Spread: -  O/U: -
*Strikeout*

San Francisco @ Green Bay(-5)  (o/u 46.5)
Savant Spread Pick: San Francisco with the points; Green Bay to win ~ 27-24
Over/Under Pick: Over
 ---
Result: San Francisco 30  Green Bay 22 / Total Points 52 /
Winner: -  Spread: +  O/U: +

Tampa Bay v. Carolina(-2.5)  (o/u 47)
Savant Spread Pick: Carolina and the points to win ~ 31-20
Over/Under Pick: Over
 ---
Result: Tampa Bay 16  Carolina 10 / Total Points 26 /
Winner: -  Spread: -  O/U: -
*Strikeout*

Arizona v. Seattle(-2.5)  (o/u 40.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Seattle and the points to win ~ 28-13
Over/Under Pick: Under
 ---
Result: Arizona 20  Seattle 16 / Total Points 36 /
Winner: -  Spread: -  O/U: +

Pittsburgh @ Denver(-1.5)  (o/u 44.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Denver and the points to win ~ 20-17
Over/Under Pick: Under
 ---
Result: Pittsburgh 19  Denver 31 / Total Points 50 /
Winner: +  Spread: +  O/U: -

Cincinnati @ Baltimore(-6)  (o/u 41.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Cincinnati with the points; Baltimore to win ~ 24-20
Over/Under Pick: Over
 ---
Result: Cincinnati 13  Baltimore 44 / Total Points 57 /
Winner: +  Spread: -  O/U: +

San Diego @ Oakland(-1)  (o/u 46.5)
Savant Spread Pick: San Diego to win ~ 31-21
Over/Under Pick : Over
 ---
Result: San Diego 22  Oakland 14 / Total Points 41 /
Winner: +  Spread: +  O/U: -

NFL 2012 - Savant Prediction Recap of the 2011 NFL Season

We're back to that time of year, where America is winding down from a long, fun and hot summer.  The kids are enrolled back in school, ready to start the next level of their education.  College campuses become abuzz with the arrival of incoming freshman to returning seniors ready to start the new school year in fall semester classes.  In this Olympic year, we've seen the games of the thirtieth Olympiad come and go and the USA perform in dominating fashion.  The boys of summer in Major League Baseball are coming down the final stretch of their season and playoff pictures are getting clearer each day.  The coming of these events in the calendar year coincide with the most exciting and important of them all... it marks the birth of a new NFL season!


With a new NFL season comes a new and exciting year in picking the games here at The Sports Savant Sports Blog!  Last year was an amazing year for my Sports Savant NFL predictions.  Here are some of the highlights of my record setting predictions last year...
 

•  In 2012, my final overall record from Week 1 through the Super Bowl, picking each game, was 180 - 87 which is a win percentage of 67.4%.  This record bested each and every one of ESPN's "expert" panel that consisted of ESPN NFL analysts Eric Allen, Mike Golic, Merril Hoge, Ron Jaworski, Chris Mortenson, Adam Schefter, Mark Schlereth, and Chris Wickersham.  Mark Schlereth finished with the best record of those experts and with just 176 wins, four games short of my 2012 record.  This record of 180 - 87 also bested any documented season long individual game predictions online from any panel of experts or amateurs. (If there was better I could not find it in many hours of searching).

•  My prediction record of 180 - 87 also exceeded the computer simulation based system, Accuscore, which performed 10,000 computer generated simulations of each game to analyze tendencies in varying conditions to predict a winner.  

• My picks also outperformed the ESPN based fantasy football game "Pigskin Pick'em" which was a collection of thousands of NFL game picks by game players assembled into a collective vote for the winner of each game.

• I had 10+ wins picking the winner in 10 of 17 weeks and scored 12 or more wins in five of those 10 weeks of ten or more wins.  I also had a nearly perfect week when I went 15 - 1 in Week 14.

• My record for predictions against the spread was 132 - 126 - 9 good for a win percentage of 51.2% which means if you used my predictions to bet on the spread for every single game last year, you made money. :-) 

•  I correctly predicted the winner, the winner versus the spread and the over/under(Trifecta) in 59 of 267 NFL games last season (22.1%) while getting all three wrong in a game prediction(Strikeout) just 33 times (12.4%).

• In 2012, I predicted a team's exact score(Perfect Team Score) 35 times in 267 NFL games (13.1%) and guessed the exact score of both teams(Perfect Game Score) in a game 3 times (1.1%).  Guessing a team's score in a given week has about a 50 to 1 probability (2%) and guessing a perfect game score has about a 500 to 1 probability (0.2%).

•  My predictions got better and sharper in NFL Playoffs.  I finished a combined 12 - 8 (60%)  including 6 - 4 against the spread through the playoffs and Super Bowl.  It was capped by a 3 - 1(to win) and 4-0(spread) record in the Divisional Round and includes predicting the winner, winner against the spread and the over/under(Trifecta) correctly for Super Bowl 46.  I also scored a Trifecta Super Bowl Prediction in 2011 making this the second year in a row I've scored the Trifecta in the NFL's biggest game.

After a Super Bowl Prediction that looked of divine intervention in 2011 where I missed a Perfect Game Score by one point,  I didn't think it could get any better in 2012.  Here is how my Super Bowl 45 predictions from 2011 turned out...

Super Bowl 45 Winner and Final Score Prediction

Prediction: Green Bay Packers - 31  Pittsburgh Steelers - 24

-->Result:  Green Bay Packers - 31  Pittsburgh Steelers - 25

Super Bowl 45 MVP Prediction

Prediction: Aaron Rodgers wins MVP

-->Result:  Aaron Rodgers wins MVP

Super Bowl 45 Quarterback Statistics - Aaron Rodgers

Prediction: 29/38(76.3%)  312 yards  3 TD  1 INT

-->Result:  24/39(61.5%)  304 yards  3 TD  0 INT

Super Bowl 45 Quarterback Statistics - Ben Roethlisberger

Prediction: 16/26(61.5%)  189 yards  1 TD  2 INT

-->Result:  25/40(62.5%)  263 yards  2 TD  2 INT

 

Since I did so well on predicting the game score and individual statistics of the QB's in the 2011 game, I took on a prediction for last year's Super Bowl score and more individual player predictions and I couldn't have imagined I would have come out so accurately on them.  Here were my Super Bowl Predictions and the results in 2012...

Super Bowl 45 Winner and Final Score Prediction

Prediction: New York Giants 27  New England Patriots 21

-->Result:  New York Giants 21  New England Patriots 17

New England Patriots
Prediction : Tom Brady - 28/42(66.7%)  282 yards  2 TD's  1 INT  1 Fumble
-->Result: Tom Brady - 27/41(65.9%)  276 yards  2 TD's  1 INT  No Fumbles

Prediction : BenJarvus Green-Ellis - 12 carries  68 yards/rushing 1 TD  2 receptions  14 yards/receiving
-->Result: BenJarvus Green-Ellis - 10 carries  44 yards/rushing 0 TD  2 receptions  15 yards/receiving

Prediction : Aaron Hernandez - 5 receptions  58 yards  1 TD
-->Result: Aaron Hernandez - 8 receptions  67 yards  1 TD

Prediction : Wes Welker - 8 receptions  96 yards
-->Result: Wes Welker - 7 receptions  60 yards

Prediction : Rob Gronkowski - 4 receptions  21 yards
-->Result: Rob Gronkowski - 2 receptions  26 yards

Prediction : Deion Branch - 3 receptions  16 yards  1 TD
-->Result: Deion Branch - 3 receptions  45 yards  0 TD


New York Giants
Prediction : Eli Manning - 23/34(67.6%)  337 yards  2 TD's  0 INT
-->Result: Eli Manning - 30/40(75.0%)  296 yards  1 TD  0 INT

Prediction : Ahmad Bradshaw - 19 carries  92 yards/rushing 1 TD  4 receptions  54 yards/receiving
-->Result: Ahmad Bradshaw - 17 carries  72 yards/rushing 1 TD  2 receptions  19 yards/receiving

Prediction: Brandon Jacobs - 6 carries  31 yards/rushing
-->Result: Brandon Jacobs - 9 carries  37 yards/rushing

Prediction : Hakeem Nicks - 5 receptions  114 yards  1 TD
-->Result: Hakeem Nicks - 10 receptions  109 yards  0 TD

Prediction : Victor Cruz - 8 receptions 124 yards  1 TD
-->Result: Victor Cruz - 4 receptions 25 yards  1 TD

Prediction : Mario Manningham - 3 receptions  28 yards
-->Result: Mario Manningham - 5 receptions  73 yards

Prediction : Jake Ballard - 4 receptions  39 yards
-->Result: Jake Ballard - 2 receptions  10 yards





With detailed predictions like these going so well, I'm looking to carry that momentum into the 2012 season!  It's been seven months since the Super Bowl was played and won by the New York Giants and many of us who are fans of the game turned our attention to baseball, the NBA, NHL or a variety of things in life we do when we are not consumed with the NFL season.  As we all know though, the NFL is a year-round business with many of the important things happening in those months between the Super Bowl and the first week of the regular season the following NFL year.  I cover the NFL and the business of the NFL year round to stay on top of how teams are improving themselves through cuts, signings, coaching changes and draft picks.  This is just the first of many NFL posts to come on The Sports Savant Sports Blog!  Look out for my AFC and NFC Division and Team Predictions post in the coming days.  Welcome back to NFL football and The Sports Savant Sports Blog!