Friday, January 6, 2012

NFL 2011 - Betting Lines - Picks To Win, Versus the Spread and the Over/Under: Wild Card Playoffs

Here we are, the first round of the NFL playoffs!  To say that my picks for the regular season were successful would be a gross understatement!  Finishing with 173 wins is 6 wins better than the most accurate NFL expert on ESPN this year(Mark Schlereth; 167).  It's also more accurate than the NFL experts on Showtime, CBS, Fox, HBO and any other media outlet in the country.  If anyone did any better, I would love to see it(and the proof)!  I couldn't have imagined that in my first year of picking all of the games of the season that I would have more success than every known NFL expert in America.  I fell just 0.4% of my impossible goal of 68% accuracy on my picks to win.  Hey, you have to set your goals high.  I almost doubled my 32 Strikeouts with 57 Trifectas and at least I came out slightly ahead on my picks with the spread and just missed 50% in the Over/Under, but it's hard to be much higher than that when picking 256 games in a year.  Now is the time when the games really count.  Let's see how I fare on my picks in the NFL playoffs!

Winner: 13-3   :-D
Winner w/ Spread: 7-8-1  :-/
Over/Under: 7-9 :-/
Trifecta: 4
Strikeouts: 0
Perfect Team Score Predictions: 1 (Jacksonville)
Perfect Game Score Predictions: 0


*2011 Overall Record*
Winner: 173-83 (.676)
Winner w/ Spread: 125-122-9 (.506)
Over/Under: 124-126-5 (.496)
Trifecta: 57
Strikeouts: 32
Perfect Team Score Predictions: 33   [Week 1]: Atlanta, St. Louis, Detroit  [Week 2]: Arizona, Tampa Bay, Minnesota  [Week 4]: San Diego  [Week 5]: Jacksonville, Denver  [Week 6]: Atlanta, Oakland  [Week 7]: Chicago  [Week 8]: Houston, Carolina, Denver, Cleveland  [Week 9]: Oakland, Tennessee  [Week 10]: Miami  [Week 11]: Oakland  [Week 12]: Tampa Bay, Chicago, Seattle  [Week 13]: Buffalo, Washington, Houston, New England  [Week 14]: Houston, Carolina  [Week 15]: Dallas, New York(A)  [Week 16]: Green Bay  [Week 17]: Jacksonville
Perfect Game Score Predictions: 2   [Week 1] Atlanta @ St. Louis  [Week 2]: Tampa Bay @ Minnesota

NOTE: The team with a negative number in parenthesis "(-3)" next to their name is the favorite to win the matchup and the number represents how many points the favorite has to score more than the underdog to count as a winning bet.  The over/under for the game is represented by a number in parenthesis with the letters o and u "(o/u 46)".  The number represents the amount of points you are wagering whether or not the two team's combined score will be in excess of or short of.  Official betting lines courtesy of

My picks for the Wild Card Round Playoffs...

Cincinnati @ Houston(-4)  (o/u 38)
Savant Spread Pick: Houston and the points to win ~ 20-13
Over/Under Pick: Under

First ever playoff game between two rookie QB's.  Cincinnati is good at all phases of the game but they don't do anything excellent.  Texans are a top ranked defense and have one of the most dynamic running games in the NFL.  Arian Foster may rush for over 150 yards and 2 touchdowns and should be the difference in the game for Houston.  Houston's defense will keep Andy Dalton, A.J. Green and Cedric Benson in check.

Detroit @ New Orleans(-10.5)  (o/u 59)
Savant Spread Pick: Detroit with the points; New Orleans to win ~ 38-29
Over/Under Pick: Over

First time two playoff QB's will face each other combining for over 10,000 yards passing in the regular season.  The team that plays even decent defense will be the winner in this match.  New Orleans undefeated at home and highest scoring average at home in the NFL in 2011.  New Orleans blitz crazed defense will create sacks/turnovers and Lions have not beaten a team with a winning record this season.

Atlanta @ New York(N)(-3)  (o/u 47.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Atlanta to win ~ 24-20
Over/Under Pick: Under

Atlanta is playing hot right now and are fully healthy.  They will use their strong rushing attack to keep the Giants elite pass rushers in check and can burn the Giants secondary with speedsters Julio Jones and Roddy White.  Falcons veteran secondary should be able to handle the passing attack of the Giants and I expect a turnover or two from Eli Manning.

Denver vs. Pittsburgh(-8.5)  (o/u 34)
Savant Spread Pick: Pittsburgh and the points to win ~13-0
Over/Under Pick: Under

Denver didn't earn a single point last week(their 3 points came from a Chiefs turnover in their own territory where they promptly went 3 and FG).  The Steelers defense is even better than the Chiefs and it would be a stretch to suggest that Denver will even score a point.  Steelers are banged up on offense but it won't matter.  Bronco offense will be so bad that the Steelers can score 3 points and have a good chance to win.

Good luck this week!

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