NFL 2012 - Betting Lines - Picks To Win, Versus the Spread and the Over/Under: Week 1

Welcome Back to The Sports Savant's Weekly NFL Picks!

The 2012 NFL season is upon us and with the return of regular season football means the return of the Sports Savant's NFL game predictions!  The New York Giants and Dallas Cowboys kicked off the 2012 season at MetLife Stadium on Wednesday where the Cowboys took home the victory in a highly contested competition.  The Cowboys left me reeling with a strikeout of my picks on the game, but it's just one game and there are a full slate of games to get it turned around!  Last year I achieved a cool 180 - 87 record, good for the best record on picking "to win" in the country last season.  Could I possibly do better?  It'd be an almost impossible feat, but it's worth trying!  As I did last year, I will be keeping a public record and statistical breakdown of my selections each week.  Without further adieu, here are my first NFL game picks of the 2012 season!

NOTE: The team with a negative number in parenthesis "(-3)" next to their name is the favorite to win the matchup and the number represents how many points the favorite has to score more than the underdog to count as a winning bet with the points spread.  The over/under for the game is represented by a number in parenthesis with the letters o and u "(o/u 46)".  The number represents the amount of points you are wagering whether or not the two team's combined score will be in excess of or short of.  Official betting lines courtesy of www.footballlocks.com

Dallas @ New York(N)(-3.5)  (o/u 45.5)
Savant Spread Pick: New York(N) and the points to win ~ 31-21
Over/Under Pick: Over
 ---
Result: Dallas 24  New York(N) 17 / Total Points 41 /
Winner: -  Spread: -  O/U: -
*Strikeout*

Indianapolis @ Chicago(-3.5)  (o/u 45.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Chicago and the points to win ~ 31-17
Over/Under Pick: Over
 ---
Result: Indianapolis 21  Chicago 41 / Total Points 62 /
Winner: +  Spread: +  O/U: +
*Trifecta*

Cleveland v. Philadelphia(-9)  (o/u 43)
Savant Spread Pick: Philadelphia and the points to win ~ 27-13
Over/Under Pick: Under
 ---
Result: Cleveland 16  Philadelphia 17 / Total Points 33 /
Winner: +  Spread: -  O/U: +

Buffalo @ New York(A)(-3)  (o/u 38.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Buffalo to win ~ 21-13
Over/Under Pick: Under
 ---
Result: Buffalo 28  New York(A) 48 / Total Points 76 /
Winner: -  Spread: -  O/U: -
*Strikeout*

Washington @ New Orleans(-7.5)  (o/u 50)
Savant Spread Pick: New Orleans and the points to win ~ 34-17
Over/Under Pick: Under
 ---
Result: Washington 40  New Orleans 32 / Total Points 72 /
Winner: -  Spread: -  O/U: -
*Strikeout*

Tennessee v. New England(-5.5)  (o/u 47)
Savant Spread Pick: New England and the points to win ~ 34-20
Over/Under Pick: Over
 ---
Result: Tennessee 13  New England 34 / Total Points 47 /
Winner: +  Spread: +  O/U: push

Jacksonville @ Minnesota(-3.5)  (o/u 39.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Minnesota and the points to win ~ 21-17
Over/Under Pick: Under
 ---
Result: Jacksonville 23  Minnesota 26 / Total Points 49 /
Winner: +  Spread: -  O/U: -

Miami @ Houston(-12)  (o/u 42.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Houston and the points to win ~ 31-9
Over/Under Pick: Under
 ---
Result: Miami 10  Houston 30 / Total Points 40 /
Winner: +  Spread: +  O/U: +
*Trifecta*

 

St. Louis @ Detroit(-7.5)  (o/u 45.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Detroit and the points to win ~ 38-13
Over/Under Pick: Over
 ---
Result: St. Louis 23  Detroit 27 / Total Points 50 /
Winner: +  Spread: -  O/U: +

Kansas City v. Atlanta(-3.5)  (o/u 43.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Kansas City to win ~ 21-20
Over/Under Pick: Under
 ---
Result: Kansas City 24  Atlanta 40 / Total Points 64 /
Winner: -  Spread: -  O/U: -
*Strikeout*

San Francisco @ Green Bay(-5)  (o/u 46.5)
Savant Spread Pick: San Francisco with the points; Green Bay to win ~ 27-24
Over/Under Pick: Over
 ---
Result: San Francisco 30  Green Bay 22 / Total Points 52 /
Winner: -  Spread: +  O/U: +

Tampa Bay v. Carolina(-2.5)  (o/u 47)
Savant Spread Pick: Carolina and the points to win ~ 31-20
Over/Under Pick: Over
 ---
Result: Tampa Bay 16  Carolina 10 / Total Points 26 /
Winner: -  Spread: -  O/U: -
*Strikeout*

Arizona v. Seattle(-2.5)  (o/u 40.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Seattle and the points to win ~ 28-13
Over/Under Pick: Under
 ---
Result: Arizona 20  Seattle 16 / Total Points 36 /
Winner: -  Spread: -  O/U: +

Pittsburgh @ Denver(-1.5)  (o/u 44.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Denver and the points to win ~ 20-17
Over/Under Pick: Under
 ---
Result: Pittsburgh 19  Denver 31 / Total Points 50 /
Winner: +  Spread: +  O/U: -

Cincinnati @ Baltimore(-6)  (o/u 41.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Cincinnati with the points; Baltimore to win ~ 24-20
Over/Under Pick: Over
 ---
Result: Cincinnati 13  Baltimore 44 / Total Points 57 /
Winner: +  Spread: -  O/U: +

San Diego @ Oakland(-1)  (o/u 46.5)
Savant Spread Pick: San Diego to win ~ 31-21
Over/Under Pick : Over
 ---
Result: San Diego 22  Oakland 14 / Total Points 41 /
Winner: +  Spread: +  O/U: -

NFL 2012 - Savant Prediction Recap of the 2011 NFL Season

We're back to that time of year, where America is winding down from a long, fun and hot summer.  The kids are enrolled back in school, ready to start the next level of their education.  College campuses become abuzz with the arrival of incoming freshman to returning seniors ready to start the new school year in fall semester classes.  In this Olympic year, we've seen the games of the thirtieth Olympiad come and go and the USA perform in dominating fashion.  The boys of summer in Major League Baseball are coming down the final stretch of their season and playoff pictures are getting clearer each day.  The coming of these events in the calendar year coincide with the most exciting and important of them all... it marks the birth of a new NFL season!


With a new NFL season comes a new and exciting year in picking the games here at The Sports Savant Sports Blog!  Last year was an amazing year for my Sports Savant NFL predictions.  Here are some of the highlights of my record setting predictions last year...
 

•  In 2012, my final overall record from Week 1 through the Super Bowl, picking each game, was 180 - 87 which is a win percentage of 67.4%.  This record bested each and every one of ESPN's "expert" panel that consisted of ESPN NFL analysts Eric Allen, Mike Golic, Merril Hoge, Ron Jaworski, Chris Mortenson, Adam Schefter, Mark Schlereth, and Chris Wickersham.  Mark Schlereth finished with the best record of those experts and with just 176 wins, four games short of my 2012 record.  This record of 180 - 87 also bested any documented season long individual game predictions online from any panel of experts or amateurs. (If there was better I could not find it in many hours of searching).

•  My prediction record of 180 - 87 also exceeded the computer simulation based system, Accuscore, which performed 10,000 computer generated simulations of each game to analyze tendencies in varying conditions to predict a winner.  

• My picks also outperformed the ESPN based fantasy football game "Pigskin Pick'em" which was a collection of thousands of NFL game picks by game players assembled into a collective vote for the winner of each game.

• I had 10+ wins picking the winner in 10 of 17 weeks and scored 12 or more wins in five of those 10 weeks of ten or more wins.  I also had a nearly perfect week when I went 15 - 1 in Week 14.

• My record for predictions against the spread was 132 - 126 - 9 good for a win percentage of 51.2% which means if you used my predictions to bet on the spread for every single game last year, you made money. :-) 

•  I correctly predicted the winner, the winner versus the spread and the over/under(Trifecta) in 59 of 267 NFL games last season (22.1%) while getting all three wrong in a game prediction(Strikeout) just 33 times (12.4%).

• In 2012, I predicted a team's exact score(Perfect Team Score) 35 times in 267 NFL games (13.1%) and guessed the exact score of both teams(Perfect Game Score) in a game 3 times (1.1%).  Guessing a team's score in a given week has about a 50 to 1 probability (2%) and guessing a perfect game score has about a 500 to 1 probability (0.2%).

•  My predictions got better and sharper in NFL Playoffs.  I finished a combined 12 - 8 (60%)  including 6 - 4 against the spread through the playoffs and Super Bowl.  It was capped by a 3 - 1(to win) and 4-0(spread) record in the Divisional Round and includes predicting the winner, winner against the spread and the over/under(Trifecta) correctly for Super Bowl 46.  I also scored a Trifecta Super Bowl Prediction in 2011 making this the second year in a row I've scored the Trifecta in the NFL's biggest game.

After a Super Bowl Prediction that looked of divine intervention in 2011 where I missed a Perfect Game Score by one point,  I didn't think it could get any better in 2012.  Here is how my Super Bowl 45 predictions from 2011 turned out...

Super Bowl 45 Winner and Final Score Prediction

Prediction: Green Bay Packers - 31  Pittsburgh Steelers - 24

-->Result:  Green Bay Packers - 31  Pittsburgh Steelers - 25

Super Bowl 45 MVP Prediction

Prediction: Aaron Rodgers wins MVP

-->Result:  Aaron Rodgers wins MVP

Super Bowl 45 Quarterback Statistics - Aaron Rodgers

Prediction: 29/38(76.3%)  312 yards  3 TD  1 INT

-->Result:  24/39(61.5%)  304 yards  3 TD  0 INT

Super Bowl 45 Quarterback Statistics - Ben Roethlisberger

Prediction: 16/26(61.5%)  189 yards  1 TD  2 INT

-->Result:  25/40(62.5%)  263 yards  2 TD  2 INT

 

Since I did so well on predicting the game score and individual statistics of the QB's in the 2011 game, I took on a prediction for last year's Super Bowl score and more individual player predictions and I couldn't have imagined I would have come out so accurately on them.  Here were my Super Bowl Predictions and the results in 2012...

Super Bowl 45 Winner and Final Score Prediction

Prediction: New York Giants 27  New England Patriots 21

-->Result:  New York Giants 21  New England Patriots 17

New England Patriots
Prediction : Tom Brady - 28/42(66.7%)  282 yards  2 TD's  1 INT  1 Fumble
-->Result: Tom Brady - 27/41(65.9%)  276 yards  2 TD's  1 INT  No Fumbles

Prediction : BenJarvus Green-Ellis - 12 carries  68 yards/rushing 1 TD  2 receptions  14 yards/receiving
-->Result: BenJarvus Green-Ellis - 10 carries  44 yards/rushing 0 TD  2 receptions  15 yards/receiving

Prediction : Aaron Hernandez - 5 receptions  58 yards  1 TD
-->Result: Aaron Hernandez - 8 receptions  67 yards  1 TD

Prediction : Wes Welker - 8 receptions  96 yards
-->Result: Wes Welker - 7 receptions  60 yards

Prediction : Rob Gronkowski - 4 receptions  21 yards
-->Result: Rob Gronkowski - 2 receptions  26 yards

Prediction : Deion Branch - 3 receptions  16 yards  1 TD
-->Result: Deion Branch - 3 receptions  45 yards  0 TD


New York Giants
Prediction : Eli Manning - 23/34(67.6%)  337 yards  2 TD's  0 INT
-->Result: Eli Manning - 30/40(75.0%)  296 yards  1 TD  0 INT

Prediction : Ahmad Bradshaw - 19 carries  92 yards/rushing 1 TD  4 receptions  54 yards/receiving
-->Result: Ahmad Bradshaw - 17 carries  72 yards/rushing 1 TD  2 receptions  19 yards/receiving

Prediction: Brandon Jacobs - 6 carries  31 yards/rushing
-->Result: Brandon Jacobs - 9 carries  37 yards/rushing

Prediction : Hakeem Nicks - 5 receptions  114 yards  1 TD
-->Result: Hakeem Nicks - 10 receptions  109 yards  0 TD

Prediction : Victor Cruz - 8 receptions 124 yards  1 TD
-->Result: Victor Cruz - 4 receptions 25 yards  1 TD

Prediction : Mario Manningham - 3 receptions  28 yards
-->Result: Mario Manningham - 5 receptions  73 yards

Prediction : Jake Ballard - 4 receptions  39 yards
-->Result: Jake Ballard - 2 receptions  10 yards





With detailed predictions like these going so well, I'm looking to carry that momentum into the 2012 season!  It's been seven months since the Super Bowl was played and won by the New York Giants and many of us who are fans of the game turned our attention to baseball, the NBA, NHL or a variety of things in life we do when we are not consumed with the NFL season.  As we all know though, the NFL is a year-round business with many of the important things happening in those months between the Super Bowl and the first week of the regular season the following NFL year.  I cover the NFL and the business of the NFL year round to stay on top of how teams are improving themselves through cuts, signings, coaching changes and draft picks.  This is just the first of many NFL posts to come on The Sports Savant Sports Blog!  Look out for my AFC and NFC Division and Team Predictions post in the coming days.  Welcome back to NFL football and The Sports Savant Sports Blog!

NFL 2011 - Betting Lines - Picks To Win, Versus the Spread and the Over/Under: Super Bowl

It's that time of year again; time for the 46th edition of the NFL Super Bowl!  It's been a year to remember with so many different fun and interesting storylines.  In the end, we end up with a rematch of Super Bowl 42 with the New England Patriots facing the Giants of New York.  If you didn't catch my Super Bowl prediction last year, it was one of the best in America including a detailed game score and individual QB statistics that I hit nearly dead on as I guess the game score of each team off by only a single point and nearly perfectly guessed the statistics of each team's QB.  Here is what my Super Bowl prediction looked like last year and the results:

Super Bowl 45 Winner and Final Score Prediction

Prediction: Green Bay Packers - 31  Pittsburgh Steelers - 24

Outcome:  Green Bay Packers - 31  Pittsburgh Steelers - 25

Super Bowl 45 MVP Prediction

Prediction: Aaron Rodgers wins MVP

Outcome:  Aaron Rodgers wins MVP

Super Bowl 45 Quarterback Statistics - Aaron Rodgers

Prediction: 29/38(76.3%)  312 yards  3 TD  1 INT

Outcome:  24/39(61.5%)  304 yards  3 TD  0 INT

Super Bowl 45 Quarterback Statistics - Ben Roethlisberger

Prediction: 16/26(61.5%)  189 yards  1 TD  2 INT

Outcome:  25/40(62.5%)  263 yards  2 TD  2 INT

As you can see, it doesn't get any better than those predictions on last year's big game.  I will attempt to do that once again this year.  And now for my Super Bowl analysis and predictions!

Super Bowl 46, Analysis:
There's no question that this is one of the closest matchups we've seen in the Super Bowl in years.  It will be a game of strengths versus weaknesses as the Giants have one of the more potent pass offenses in the NFL right now versus the first defense in NFL history to finish dead last in pass defense and second to last in total defense, to ever make a Super Bowl, in the Patriots.


The Patriots have QB Tom Brady at the helm and anyone who has paid any attention to the NFL in the last decade knows what he is capable of in the Bill Belichick offense of New England.  Though they are potent on offense, they lack a couple of very important pieces that will ultimately cost them in this game.  First, is their lack of a deep threat WR.  The Patriots have no one on the offense who is very fast and can make a secondary have to play deep and let the underneath coverage stay soft for those post routes and deep ins.  Because of this lack of a speed receiver, the Giants secondary, which is the most suspect unit on the team, will be able to cheat up towards the line of scrimmage without that deep threat to account for.  This will make passing much more difficult for Brady because it will clog up those short and intermediate routes that he loves to hit on 3rd downs.  Add to that the unknown status of their second biggest offensive weapon, TE Rob Gronkowski, who scored 17 TD's, an NFL record for a TE in a season, hobbled by what looked to be a very badly sprained left ankle in the championship game two weeks ago.  Having Gronk, at likely much less than 100%, is a big blow to the sustainability of the Patriot offense.


The second problem the Patriots face is the lack of a real running game.  They have made due with a make-shift backfield all year between BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Danny Woodhead, probably better than any other team could have considering the football IQ of Bill Belichick.  Green-Ellis is a solid back, but not someone you have to stack the line to stop.  This will give the Giants the opportunity to drop back linebackers into coverage instead of needing them to crash down on blitzes to stop an elite running back that commands 8 or 9 men in the defensive box.  This will make throwing lanes get even tighter for Brady, already at the disadvantage of having the Giants secondary playing up because of that lack of a Patriots deep threat. Having no deep threat and a mediocre backfield will allow the Giants defense to play within their strengths and slow down the Brady led offense.


Conversely for the Giants, they hold a distinct advantage in this game in the matchup between the Giants trio of excellent receivers versus the Patriots' all-time worst pass defense in NFL history in terms of yards allowed per game average.  The Patriots lack any form of formidable pass rush which will give Eli Manning and those receivers; Nicks, Cruz and Manningham, lots of time to absolutely torch that very bad secondary.  A secondary so bad, mind you, that Patriots bench WR Julian Edelman checks in at defensive back regularly.  After watching what the Giants were capable of against the 49ers top 5 ranked defense in the NFC Championship, it would seem that the Patriots atrocious defense would not stand a chance of limiting the Giants offense.  Because the Patriots are so bad on pass defense, they may give extra help to the secondary by running a lot of zone-cover 3 looks from the Nickel package to plug up passing lanes.  If the Pats give secondary help though, it will break open some very wide rushing lanes for the very talented RB Ahmad Bradshaw and bulldozer RB Brandon Jacobs.  The Patriots D will be scrambling to give help both to the secondary and rush defense and as long as the Giants can recognize these looks by the Patriots, they will be able to take advantage of whichever end of the defense is not getting the help it needs to make successful plays.


So in the end, it will be the lack of Patriots defense against those skill position players of the Giants and a lack of any major offensive fire power against the Giants defense that will cost them this game.  When you look at those matchup advantages for the Giants and additionally throw in their most feared pass rush in the NFL, this game seems like an easy pick.  It will take some very serious Brady and Belichick magic to win this one but I just don't see it happening.  Something else to keep in mind going into this game is that the Patriots did not win a single game against a team with a winning record the entire year until they won their conference championship over the Ravens, but they looked awful in doing so and had to rely on a Lee Evans dropped TD catch late in the game to advance.  All of this considered, my final pick of the 2011 NFL Season is as follows:



New York(N) vs. New England(-3)  (o/u 53.5)
Savant Spread Pick: New York(N) to win ~ 27-21
Over/Under Pick: Under




Here are my individual statistical predictions for key players on each team:




New England Patriots
Tom Brady - 28/42(66.7%)  282 yards  2 TD's  1 INT  1 Fumble
BenJarvus Green-Ellis - 12 carries  68 yards/rushing 1 TD  2 receptions  14 yards/receiving
Aaron Hernandez - 5 receptions  58 yards  1 TD
Wes Welker - 8 receptions  96 yards
Rob Gronkowski - 4 receptions  21 yards
Deion Branch - 3 receptions  16 yards  1 TD


New York Giants
Eli Manning - 23/34(67.6%)  337 yards  2 TD's  0 INT
Ahmad Bradshaw - 19 carries  92 yards/rushing 1 TD  4 receptions  54 yards/receiving
Brandon Jacobs - 6 carries  31 yards/rushing
Hakeem Nicks - 5 receptions  114 yards  1 TD
Victor Cruz - 8 receptions 124 yards  1 TD
Mario Manningham - 3 receptions  28 yards
Jake Ballard - 4 receptions  39 yards


A big thanks to all who followed my picks this season.  Thanks for joining me on what was an extremely successful year making game picks.  Look for continued blog posts throughout the year on other sports topics and of course, next season when I will be picking all of the NFL games in the 2012 season!

NFL 2011 - Betting Lines - Picks To Win, Versus the Spread and the Over/Under: Conference Championship Playoffs

It's turning out to be an exciting final round of the playoffs before this season's Super Bowl!  And, in true Sports Savant fashion, my picks are getting more accurate as the importance of the games being played grows in intensity.  Not only did I finish with a perfect 4-0 record against the spread and 3-1 to win, but I picked my third Perfect Game Score of the season and my first since Week 2 of the 2011 NFL Season when I chose the Ravens to beat the Texans 20-13 in the Divisional Round of the playoffs.  The only pick I got wrong "to win" was the Giants, but I was one of the few people to even take them with the points so it was a very big upset.  According to my picks this weekend, we are going to have a Patriots vs. 49ers Super Bowl in Indianapolis this February.  Before we get to those picks, lets take a look at the rundown on my picks last week and overall this season...


*DIVISIONAL ROUND PLAYOFFS - RESULTS*

Winner: 3-1   :-)

Winner w/ Spread: 4-0  :-D

Over/Under: 1-3 :-(

---------------------------------------------

Trifecta: 1

Strikeouts: 0

Perfect Team Score Predictions: 2 (Baltimore, Houston)

Perfect Game Score Predictions: 1 (Houston @ Baltimore)

___________

*2011 Overall Record*

Winner: 178-86 (.674)

Winner w/ Spread: 130-125-9 (.510)

Over/Under: 127-131-5 (.492)

--------------------------------------------


Trifecta: 58

Strikeouts: 33

Perfect Team Score Predictions: 35   [Week 1]: Atlanta, St. Louis, Detroit  [Week 2]: Arizona, Tampa Bay, Minnesota  [Week 4]: San Diego  [Week 5]: Jacksonville, Denver  [Week 6]: Atlanta, Oakland  [Week 7]: Chicago  [Week 8]: Houston, Carolina, Denver, Cleveland  [Week 9]: Oakland, Tennessee  [Week 10]: Miami  [Week 11]: Oakland  [Week 12]: Tampa Bay, Chicago, Seattle  [Week 13]: Buffalo, Washington, Houston, New England  [Week 14]: Houston, Carolina  [Week 15]: Dallas, New York(A)  [Week 16]: Green Bay  [Week 17]: Jacksonville  [Divisional Playoffs]: Baltimore, Houston

Perfect Game Score Predictions: 3   [Week 1] Atlanta @ St. Louis  [Week 2]: Tampa Bay @ Minnesota  [Divisional Playoffs]: Houston @ Baltimore

NOTE: The team with a negative number in parenthesis "(-3)" next to their name is the favorite to win the matchup and the number represents how many points the favorite has to score more than the underdog to count as a winning bet.  The over/under for the game is represented by a number in parenthesis with the letters o and u "(o/u 46)".  The number represents the amount of points you are wagering whether or not the two team's combined score will be in excess of or short of.  Official betting lines courtesy of www.footballlocks.com

My picks for the Conference Championship Round Playoffs...



Baltimore @ New England(-7)  (o/u 50)
Savant Spread Pick: Baltimore with the points; New England to win ~ 26-20
Over/Under Pick: Under

It's plain and simple in this matchup; Do you trust Brady and the Pats sub-par defense to hold up or is it Flacco and the Ravens high ranked defense to slow Brady and that high octane offense down?  Based on recent performance, their is more reason to believe in the Pats than the Ravens playing at New England.  The Ravens defense had three interceptions last week, continuing their "ball-hawk" reputation but numbers are deceiving.  Those interceptions were all very easy pick-offs thrown by an inexperienced third string rookie QB in T.J. Yates, a far cry from the likes of Tom Brady.  The Patriot mystique will roll into the Super Bowl behind 2 TD passes and 317 yards on 37 attempts from Brady while Flacco will put up 260 yards and 1 TD passes on 22 attempts in the loss.  Other player predictions: Ray Rice: 92 yards rushing, 32 receiving 1 TD, Rob Gronkowski: 7 catches 106 yards 1 TD



New York(N) @San Francisco(-2.5)  (o/u 42)
Savant Spread Pick: San Francisco and the points to win ~ 23-17
Over/Under Pick: Under

With most of America on the Giants bandwagon after their playoff stunner versus the Packers, the 49ers are playing the disrespect card all the way to the Super Bowl.  They have thrived on being the underdogs all season(and don't be fooled by the spread. It's just Vegas' way of hedging the risk on everyone taking the Giants bet).  Nobody plays more physical than the 49ers on defense, a team who knocked out 6 running backs this season including last week's crushing concussion Donte' Whitner laid on Pierre Thomas that caused a fumble on the goal line.  The Giants will make a few big plays but keeping a consistent drive will be difficult against the NFL's top rated defense.  Eli Manning will throw for over 300 yards on 41 attempts and 2 TD passes, but the Giants running game will be stifled with my expectation that the Bradshaw/Jacobs combo will gain just 67 rushing yards.  Alex Smith will throw it more than you think likely tossing it 26 times for 267 yards and a TD.  The 49ers running back combo Gore/Hunter will combine for 136 yards rushing and a TD for Gore.  Other player predictions: Hakeem Nicks 7 catches 118 yards 1 TD, Victor Cruz: 4 catches 67 yards, Frank Gore: 94 yards rushing, 18 receiving 1 TD, Vernon Davis: 10 catches 121 yards 1 TD

NFL 2011 - Betting Lines - Picks To Win, Versus the Spread and the Over/Under: Divisional Playoffs

It was a wild and unpredictable week in the Wildcard Round of the NFL playoffs last week.  At least half of people picked the Giants to win against the Falcons, but no one could have predicted they would shut them out offensively.  And, absolutely no one with any pro football acumen gave the Broncos any chance of beating the Steelers last week, but the Steelers made fatal mistakes on defense that led to the miracle upset.  Because of this, my picks last week were just 2-2, but anomalies like those are not common so I imagine I will be back on track with this week's picks.  Before we look at those, lets take a look at how I did last week and my overall record for the 2011 NFL season, including last week's games...


*WILDCARD PLAYOFFS - RESULTS*

Winner: 2-2   :-/

Winner w/ Spread: 1-3  :-(

Over/Under: 2-2 :-/

---------------------------------------------

Trifecta: 0

Strikeouts: 1

Perfect Team Score Predictions: 0

Perfect Game Score Predictions: 0

___________

*2011 Overall Record*

Winner: 175-85 (.673)

Winner w/ Spread: 126-125-9 (.502)

Over/Under: 126-128-5 (.496)

--------------------------------------------


Trifecta: 57

Strikeouts: 33

Perfect Team Score Predictions: 33   [Week 1]: Atlanta, St. Louis, Detroit  [Week 2]: Arizona, Tampa Bay, Minnesota  [Week 4]: San Diego  [Week 5]: Jacksonville, Denver  [Week 6]: Atlanta, Oakland  [Week 7]: Chicago  [Week 8]: Houston, Carolina, Denver, Cleveland  [Week 9]: Oakland, Tennessee  [Week 10]: Miami  [Week 11]: Oakland  [Week 12]: Tampa Bay, Chicago, Seattle  [Week 13]: Buffalo, Washington, Houston, New England  [Week 14]: Houston, Carolina  [Week 15]: Dallas, New York(A)  [Week 16]: Green Bay  [Week 17]: Jacksonville

Perfect Game Score Predictions: 2   [Week 1] Atlanta @ St. Louis  [Week 2]: Tampa Bay @ Minnesota

NOTE: The team with a negative number in parenthesis "(-3)" next to their name is the favorite to win the matchup and the number represents how many points the favorite has to score more than the underdog to count as a winning bet.  The over/under for the game is represented by a number in parenthesis with the letters o and u "(o/u 46)".  The number represents the amount of points you are wagering whether or not the two team's combined score will be in excess of or short of.  Official betting lines courtesy of www.footballlocks.com

My picks for the Divisional Round Playoffs...


San Francisco vs. New Orleans(-3.5)  (o/u 47)
Savant Spread Pick: San Francisco to win ~ 23-21
Over/Under Pick: Under


San Francisco is the only home underdog in the playoffs this week, but that's not stopping me from picking the defense that can best match-up against the Saints high powered offense.  What makes the Saints offense so dynamic is their ability to use their rushing offense, 6th in the NFL, to setup their high flying aerial attack.  The 49ers were #1 in the league against the run and will make the Saints offense more one-dimensional.  In addition, the Saints were a perfect 8-0 at home this year, but were only 5-3 on the road including losses to two of the most atrocious teams in the NFL, the Tampa Bay Bucs and the St. Louis Rams.  The 49ers run game behind Frank Gore will burn clock and limit the number of possessions the Saints will get and the 49ers big time special teams that include the league's top kick returner, Ted Ginn and the now single season record holder for field goals in a season in 2011, David Akers will play a big part in the 49ers upset of the Saints at home.






Denver @ New England(-13.5)  (o/u 50.5)
Savant Spread Pick: New England and the points to win ~ 31-17
Over/Under Pick: Under


Denver came off of a miracle win against the Steelers last week, but it had more to do with  a terrible defensive game plan by the Steelers than it did with what the Broncos offense did.  The Broncos threw for 316 yards on just 10 completions which is a damnation of the defense they faced.  The Steelers respected the Broncos ability to pass the ball so little that they played in a Cover 0(no deep safeties) most of the game and this allowed Bronco receivers to get behind the defense for a few very long pass completions that made the difference in the game.  New England will not be so brazenly aggressive and maintain a more conservative game plan.  Expect Bill Belichick to create a new gameplan that will differ greatly from their win earlier this year against the Broncos where the Broncos rushed for 164 yards in the first quarter against them.  The New England Tight Ends will also be a nightmare for the Broncos to cover.






Houston @ Baltimore(-7.5)  (o/u 36)
Savant Spread Pick: Houston with the points; Baltimore to win ~ 20-13
Over/Under Pick: Under


Houston has come a long way behind 3rd string QB, T.J Yates in the last quarter of the regular season and last week's playoff win against the Bengals, but this week is where the Cinderella story ends.  The Ravens defense is notorious for taking advantage of inexperienced QB's and the Ravens are a perfect 8-0 at home with wins against a number of high ranked opponents.  Few teams in the NFL perform at a higher level at home than the Ravens.  The Houston rushing attack should put up numbers but I see them settling for Red Zone field goals instead of touchdowns on a couple of drives that will be the difference.  The Houston defense is one of the top in the NFL, but the Ravens rushing game behind elite RB Ray Rice will be too much for them to handle in the end.  It will be mostly a defensive struggle, but I trust the Ravens offense to break through more than I can trust the Texans offense, especially behind a 3rd string QB.






New York(N) @ Green Bay(-7.5)  (o/u 53)
Savant Spread Pick: New York with the points; Green Bay to win ~ 28-23
Over/Under Pick: Under


This will be more of a game than people expect.  The one thing that can bring any high powered passing offense to a halt is an outstanding pass rush and no team has a more dominant pass rushing front four than the Giants.  The game is in Green Bay where temperatures are expected to be very low and the Giants are a team that is better built to play in those conditions with their power running game than the Green Bay Packers who pass the ball a majority of the time.  The biggest difference will be the fact that the Packers have the worst rated pass defense in the NFL and that will give Eli and the offense opportunities to score, but the Packers are a hard team to keep up with when it comes to scoring points.  The Giants will push the Packers to the brink in a tightly contested game, but it will be the Packers who will make one or two more big throws with the NFL's league MVP, Aaron Rodgers, making the throws.

NFL 2011 - Betting Lines - Picks To Win, Versus the Spread and the Over/Under: Wild Card Playoffs

Here we are, the first round of the NFL playoffs!  To say that my picks for the regular season were successful would be a gross understatement!  Finishing with 173 wins is 6 wins better than the most accurate NFL expert on ESPN this year(Mark Schlereth; 167).  It's also more accurate than the NFL experts on Showtime, CBS, Fox, HBO and any other media outlet in the country.  If anyone did any better, I would love to see it(and the proof)!  I couldn't have imagined that in my first year of picking all of the games of the season that I would have more success than every known NFL expert in America.  I fell just 0.4% of my impossible goal of 68% accuracy on my picks to win.  Hey, you have to set your goals high.  I almost doubled my 32 Strikeouts with 57 Trifectas and at least I came out slightly ahead on my picks with the spread and just missed 50% in the Over/Under, but it's hard to be much higher than that when picking 256 games in a year.  Now is the time when the games really count.  Let's see how I fare on my picks in the NFL playoffs!

*WEEK 17 - RESULTS*

Winner: 13-3   :-D

Winner w/ Spread: 7-8-1  :-/

Over/Under: 7-9 :-/

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Trifecta: 4

Strikeouts: 0

Perfect Team Score Predictions: 1 (Jacksonville)

Perfect Game Score Predictions: 0

___________

*2011 Overall Record*

Winner: 173-83 (.676)

Winner w/ Spread: 125-122-9 (.506)

Over/Under: 124-126-5 (.496)

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Trifecta: 57

Strikeouts: 32

Perfect Team Score Predictions: 33   [Week 1]: Atlanta, St. Louis, Detroit  [Week 2]: Arizona, Tampa Bay, Minnesota  [Week 4]: San Diego  [Week 5]: Jacksonville, Denver  [Week 6]: Atlanta, Oakland  [Week 7]: Chicago  [Week 8]: Houston, Carolina, Denver, Cleveland  [Week 9]: Oakland, Tennessee  [Week 10]: Miami  [Week 11]: Oakland  [Week 12]: Tampa Bay, Chicago, Seattle  [Week 13]: Buffalo, Washington, Houston, New England  [Week 14]: Houston, Carolina  [Week 15]: Dallas, New York(A)  [Week 16]: Green Bay  [Week 17]: Jacksonville

Perfect Game Score Predictions: 2   [Week 1] Atlanta @ St. Louis  [Week 2]: Tampa Bay @ Minnesota

NOTE: The team with a negative number in parenthesis "(-3)" next to their name is the favorite to win the matchup and the number represents how many points the favorite has to score more than the underdog to count as a winning bet.  The over/under for the game is represented by a number in parenthesis with the letters o and u "(o/u 46)".  The number represents the amount of points you are wagering whether or not the two team's combined score will be in excess of or short of.  Official betting lines courtesy of www.footballlocks.com

My picks for the Wild Card Round Playoffs...


Cincinnati @ Houston(-4)  (o/u 38)
Savant Spread Pick: Houston and the points to win ~ 20-13
Over/Under Pick: Under

First ever playoff game between two rookie QB's.  Cincinnati is good at all phases of the game but they don't do anything excellent.  Texans are a top ranked defense and have one of the most dynamic running games in the NFL.  Arian Foster may rush for over 150 yards and 2 touchdowns and should be the difference in the game for Houston.  Houston's defense will keep Andy Dalton, A.J. Green and Cedric Benson in check.

Detroit @ New Orleans(-10.5)  (o/u 59)
Savant Spread Pick: Detroit with the points; New Orleans to win ~ 38-29
Over/Under Pick: Over

First time two playoff QB's will face each other combining for over 10,000 yards passing in the regular season.  The team that plays even decent defense will be the winner in this match.  New Orleans undefeated at home and highest scoring average at home in the NFL in 2011.  New Orleans blitz crazed defense will create sacks/turnovers and Lions have not beaten a team with a winning record this season.

Atlanta @ New York(N)(-3)  (o/u 47.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Atlanta to win ~ 24-20
Over/Under Pick: Under

Atlanta is playing hot right now and are fully healthy.  They will use their strong rushing attack to keep the Giants elite pass rushers in check and can burn the Giants secondary with speedsters Julio Jones and Roddy White.  Falcons veteran secondary should be able to handle the passing attack of the Giants and I expect a turnover or two from Eli Manning.

Denver vs. Pittsburgh(-8.5)  (o/u 34)
Savant Spread Pick: Pittsburgh and the points to win ~13-0
Over/Under Pick: Under

Denver didn't earn a single point last week(their 3 points came from a Chiefs turnover in their own territory where they promptly went 3 and FG).  The Steelers defense is even better than the Chiefs and it would be a stretch to suggest that Denver will even score a point.  Steelers are banged up on offense but it won't matter.  Bronco offense will be so bad that the Steelers can score 3 points and have a good chance to win.

Good luck this week!