NFL Week 10: Win, Spread, Over/Under and Game Score Predictions

Welcome to another week of The Sports Savant NFL Picks, Week 10 Edition!


Week 9 was an interesting week of very close matchups.  So close, in fact, that I took a number of underdogs to win games; more than I can ever remember taking in a single week.  The thought going in was that I would either end up a genius at the end of Sunday's games or I would have a miserable week of picks.  It turned out niether were the case as I had an above average week with about half of my underdog predictions panning out.  Others were very close to working, including the biggest upset pick, Dallas winning over Atlanta in the Georgia Dome.  But Atlanta made a great 4th quarter comeback and spoiled that Savant revelation.

It's never a bad week when I come out above .500 with my spread picks and coming in at 8-6 was good a solid result for my friends who use my picks to gamble.  The over/under was below par, as it can often be as fickle as it is, but if you like to play with fire, my over/under picks still stand as some of the best against anyone this year in the aggregate of 2012.

The real nice surprise behind my Week 9 picks was the addition of four perfect team score predictions, but even more impressive is what was my third perfect game score in the last season and a half of NFL game prognostications.  For the first time in 2012, I nailed a perfect game score, the 31-17 final between Green bay and Arizona.  If you can get the right odds on picking a perfect game score, I would highly suggest playing some of my exact score picks.  I pick a perfect game score well above the expected probability.

Before we look at my picks for Week 10, let's take a look at how last weeks picks shaped up and my overall records for the 2012 NFL season...



*WEEK 9 RESULTS*

Winner: 9-5  

Winner w/ Spread: 8-6

Over/Under: 5-7-2

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Trifecta: 4

Strikeouts: 3

Perfect Team Score Predictions: 4 (Green Bay, Arizona, Miami, Tennessee)

Perfect Game Score Predictions: 1 (Arizona @ Green Bay)

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*2012 Overall Record*

Winner: 86-46 (.652)

Winner w/ Spread: 64-65-3 (.496)

Over/Under: 69-57-6 (.543)

--------------------------------------------

Trifecta: 34

Strikeouts: 24

Perfect Team Score Predictions: 17   [Week 1]: New England  [Week 2]: Indianapolis, San Francisco [Week 3]: Chicago, Washington, New York(A)  [Week 4]: Cleveland, Philadelphia  [Week 5]: Green Bay, Seattle, San Diego  [Week 7]: St. Louis, Tampa Bay  [Week 9]: Miami, Tennessee, Green Bay, Arizona

Perfect Game Score Predictions: 1   [Week 9]: Arizona @ Green Bay

NOTE: The team with a negative number in parenthesis "(-3)" next to their name is the favorite to win the matchup and the number represents how many points the favorite has to score more than the underdog to count as a winning bet.  The over/under for the game is represented by a number in parenthesis with the letters o and u "(o/u 46)".  The number represents the amount of points you are wagering whether or not the two team's combined score will be in excess of or short of.  Official betting lines courtesy of www.footballlocks.com

LOCKS: Games that have a "*LOCK*" logo next to the score are my spread lock picks of the week.  I choose four games each week that I feel will be a lock to win the spread bet.  If I have an underdog winning against a favorite and it is a *LOCK* pick, it means it is a lock that the favorite will not cover the spread, not a lock that the underdog wins the game.

Don't forget to visit therealsportssavant.blogspot.com to check my game picks or right here on lastwordonsports.com at The Sports Savant channel.  And now for my Week 10, NFL picks...

Jacksonville v. Indianapolis(-3.5)  (o/u 42.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Jacksonville to win ~ 21-17
Over/Under Pick: Under

Buffalo @ New England(-11)  (o/u 52)
Savant Spread Pick: New England and the points to win ~ 42-23 *LOCK*
Over/Under Pick: Over

Cincinnati @ New York(N)(-4)  (o/u 48.5)
Savant Spread Pick: New York(N) and the points to win ~ 26-20
Over/Under Pick: Under

San Diego @ Tampa Bay(-3)  (o/u 47.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Tampa Bay and the points to win ~ 27-23
Over/Under Pick: Over

Carolina v. Denver(-4)  (o/u 47)
Savant Spread Pick: Denver and the points to win ~ 29-21
Over/Under Pick: Over

Tennessee @ Miami(-6)  (o/u 44)
Savant Spread Pick: Tennessee with the points; Miami to win ~ 26-21
Over/Under Pick: Over

Oakland @ Baltimore(-7.5)  (o/u 46)
Savant Spread Pick: Baltimore and the points to win ~ 26-17
Over/Under Pick: Under

New Orleans v. Atlanta(-2.5)  (o/u 53.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Atlanta and the points to win ~ 30-24
Over/Under Pick: Over

Minnesota v. Detroit(-2.5)  (o/u 47)
Savant Spread Pick: Detroit and the points to win ~ 31-21
Over/Under Pick: Over

New York(A) @ Seattle(-6)  (o/u 38.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Seattle and the points to win ~ 19-10 *LOCK*
Over/Under Pick: Under

Philadelphia v. Dallas(-1.5)  (o/u 44.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Dallas and the points to win ~ 23-20
Over/Under Pick: Under

St. Louis @ San Francisco(-11.5)  (o/u 38.5)
Savant Spread Pick: San Francisco and the points to win ~ 29-10 *LOCK*
Over/Under Pick: Over

Houston @ Chicago(-1)  (o/u 41)
Savant Spread Pick: Houston to win ~ 19-17
Over/Under Pick: Under

Kansas City @ Pittsburgh(-12.5)  (o/u 42)
Savant Spread Pick: Pittsburgh and the points to win ~ 31-16 *LOCK*
Over/Under Pick: Over

NFL Week 9: Win, Spread, Over/Under and Game Score Predictions

Welcome to another week of The Sports Savant NFL Picks, Week 9 Edition!


Last week presented itself to be quite a challenge as I was humbled coming off of a nearly perfect 12-1 Week 7 only to follow up with a very average 8-6 on my Week 8 picks.  The silver lining was the continuation of my streak of having never picked below .500 on any week of picks since I started publishing every game pick of every week in 2011.  The other good news was that I at least salvaged a .500 record against the spread, which is far more difficult to get right.  It wasn't a winning week, but at least it was a break even week.  I can't say the same for the over/under as I came up a game shy of .500 but I am still hot handed on the over/under picks on the year maintaining 55.6% accuracy.  With my 77-41 record in picks to win in 2012, I still stand in 3rd place amongst ESPN's twelve man expert panel, with Chris Mortenson and Chris Wickersham still leading the charge at 82-36 and 83-35, respectively.

My week wrapped up with three trifectas and four strikeouts keeping my trifecta to strikeout ratio around 3 to 2 at 30-21.  The goal is to have a 2 to 1 ratio for the year so I have work to do there.  My seven trifecta week in Week 7 really helped the cause.  I need another week like that one to get myself back near the goal, but the more likely solution will be to keep chipping away with a great second half of the season.

As challenging as last week was, this week may prove to be as challenging or more.  As usual there was a lot of chalk in my picks, but I dared to take FOUR road underdogs this week(Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay, Dallas, Philadelphia) and a home dog(Cleveland).  These games will be the biggest difference in a big week of picks or hovering around .500.  I've got a good feeling about this week.

Before we look at my picks for Week 9, let's take a look at how last weeks picks shaped up and my overall records for the 2012 NFL season...



*WEEK 8 RESULTS*

Winner: 8-6  

Winner w/ Spread: 7-7

Over/Under: 6-7-1

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Trifecta: 3

Strikeouts: 4

Perfect Team Score Predictions: 0

Perfect Game Score Predictions: 0

___________

*2012 Overall Record*

Winner: 77-41 (.652)

Winner w/ Spread: 56-59-3 (.487)

Over/Under: 64-50-4 (.556)

--------------------------------------------

Trifecta: 30

Strikeouts:21

Perfect Team Score Predictions: 13   [Week 1]: New England  [Week 2]: Indianapolis, San Francisco [Week 3]: Chicago, Washington, New York(A)  [Week 4]: Cleveland, Philadelphia  [Week 5]: Green Bay, Seattle, San Diego  [Week 5]: St. Louis, Tampa Bay

Perfect Game Score Predictions: 0

NOTE: The team with a negative number in parenthesis "(-3)" next to their name is the favorite to win the matchup and the number represents how many points the favorite has to score more than the underdog to count as a winning bet.  The over/under for the game is represented by a number in parenthesis with the letters o and u "(o/u 46)".  The number represents the amount of points you are wagering whether or not the two team's combined score will be in excess of or short of.  Official betting lines courtesy of www.footballlocks.com

LOCKS: Games that have a "*LOCK*" logo next to the score are my spread lock picks of the week.  I choose four games each week that I feel will be a lock to win the spread bet.  If I have an underdog winning against a favorite and it is a *LOCK* pick, it means it is a lock that the favorite will not cover the spread, not a lock that the underdog wins the game.

Don't forget to visit therealsportssavant.blogspot.com to check my game picks or right here on lastwordonsports.com at The Sports Savant channel.  And now for my Week 9, NFL picks...

Kansas City @ San Diego(-7.5)  (o/u 41.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Kansas City with the points; San Diego to win ~ 23-16
Over/Under Pick: Under

Cincinnati v. Denver(-3.5)  (o/u 47.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Denver and the points to win ~ 24-20 *LOCK*
Over/Under Pick: Under

Arizona @ Green Bay(-10.5)  (o/u 43.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Green Bay and the points to win ~ 31-17
Over/Under Pick: Over

Indianapolis v. Miami(-2)  (o/u 43)
Savant Spread Pick: Miami and the points to win ~ 20-17
Over/Under Pick: Under

Cleveland v. Baltimore(-3.5)  (o/u 42.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Cleveland to win ~ 20-17
Over/Under Pick: Under

Buffalo @ Houston(-10)  (o/u 47.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Houston and the points to win ~ 37-21 *LOCK*
Over/Under Pick: Over

Carolina @ Washington(-3)  (o/u 46.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Washington and the points to win ~ 27-21
Over/Under Pick: Over

Jacksonville v. Detroit(-4)  (o/u 44)
Savant Spread Pick: Detroit and the points to win ~ 28-17
Over/Under Pick: Under

Tennessee v. Chicago(-3.5)  (o/u 43.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Chicago and the points to win ~ 24-20
Over/Under Pick: Over

Minnesota @ Seattle(-4.5)  (o/u 38.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Seattle and the points to win ~ 23-16 *LOCK*
Over/Under Pick: Over

Tampa Bay @ Oakland(-1.5)  (o/u 46.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Tampa Bay to win ~ 26-21
Over/Under Pick: Over

Pittsburgh @ New York(N)(-3)  (o/u 47.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Pittsburgh to win ~ 27-24 *LOCK*
Over/Under Pick: Over

Dallas @ Atlanta(-4)  (o/u 47.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Dallas to win ~ 28-27
Over/Under Pick: Over

Philadelphia @ New Orleans(-3)  (o/u 51.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Philadelphia to win ~ 29-23
Over/Under Pick: Over

NFL Week 8: Win, Spread, Over/Under and Game Score Predictions

Welcome to another week of The Sports Savant NFL Picks, Week 8 Edition!

A Cincinnati loss to Pittsburgh.  That's how close I was to every prognosticators dream; the perfect week.  Heading into Sunday night's battle between the Bengals and Steelers last week, I was perfect, 11-0 in my week's NFL picks for Week 7.  Only once in the 24 regular season weeks I have kept an official record of weekly NFL picks had I even only had one loss in a week, a 15-1 record in Week 14 of the 2011 season on a full slate of NFL games.  In that week, I had already suffered the sole blemish by the end of the 4:30 games; a 19-21 loss by the 49ers to the Cardinals.  This time I was still undefeated going into the night game.  The Bengals had control of the game early and I was primed for an undefeated run, but the Steelers came back and blew the dream.  By Monday morning I had suffered my first loss.

I ended up correctly picking the Monday Night Football game winner and settled with a 12-1 record for Week 7 and improved my already robust winning percentage 66.3%.  Some would argue that the 15-1 record from last year is more impressive than a 13-0 record considering their were six teams on bye for Week 7 that didn't have to be picked and no teams on bye in Week 14 last year when I reached the 15 win mark.  That may be true, but any prognosticator would tell you that there is something special about escaping a week of NFL picks without a blemish whether it is in a week of teams on bye or a full slate.  I'm still seeking that elusive perfect week, but as close I have come in just a season in a half, I am bound to hit it.  Maybe it will be this week!

In this week's NFL picks, I have only one underdog covering the spread in a loss(Jacksonville) and I also have four dogs to win their respective games outright(Miami, Washington, Oakland and New Orleans).  I went mostly chalk and picked out the games that looked prime for an upset last week and nailed nearly every one of them.  I am using a similar formula this week and we'll see what kind of results it brings me.

On the season, with last week's explosion of winners, I was also on absolute fire in my spread and over/under picks finishing Week 7 with a 9-3-1 mark against the spread and 9-4 mark picking the over/under.  These marks lead to a personal record of seven trifectas in a single week, a feat that may never again go matched it's is so unbelievably rare.  This blazing week brought me back to nearly even for the year on my spread picks(48.5%) after my brutal stretch of bad spread picks during the NFL Referee lockout when everything was so unpredictable.  My over/under picks have been scorching all year long though and half way through the season I have a 57.7% success rate on the over/under, a rate of success that only the most expert of prognosticators reaches for a full season.

Before we look at my picks for Week 8, let's take a look at how last weeks picks shaped up and my overall records for the 2012 NFL season...



*WEEK 7 RESULTS*

Winner: 12-1   :-D

Winner w/ Spread: 9-3-1  :-D

Over/Under: 9-4 :-D

---------------------------------------------

Trifecta: 7 (New Record!)

Strikeouts: 0

Perfect Team Score Predictions: 2 (St. Louis, Tampa Bay)

Perfect Game Score Predictions: 0

___________

*2012 Overall Record*

Winner: 69-35 (.663)

Winner w/ Spread: 49-52-3 (.485)

Over/Under: 58-43-3 (.574)

--------------------------------------------

Trifecta: 27

Strikeouts:17

Perfect Team Score Predictions: 13   [Week 1]: New England  [Week 2]: Indianapolis, San Francisco [Week 3]: Chicago, Washington, New York(A)  [Week 4]: Cleveland, Philadelphia  [Week 5]: Green Bay, Seattle, San Diego  [Week 5]: St. Louis, Tampa Bay

Perfect Game Score Predictions: 0

NOTE: The team with a negative number in parenthesis "(-3)" next to their name is the favorite to win the matchup and the number represents how many points the favorite has to score more than the underdog to count as a winning bet.  The over/under for the game is represented by a number in parenthesis with the letters o and u "(o/u 46)".  The number represents the amount of points you are wagering whether or not the two team's combined score will be in excess of or short of.  Official betting lines courtesy of www.footballlocks.com

LOCKS: Games that have a "*LOCK*" logo next to the score are my spread lock picks of the week.  I choose four games each week that I feel will be a lock to win the spread bet.  If I have an underdog winning against a favorite and it is a *LOCK* pick, it means it is a lock that the favorite will not cover the spread, not a lock that the underdog wins the game.

Don't forget to visit therealsportssavant.blogspot.com to check my game picks or right here on lastwordonsports.com at The Sports Savant channel.  And now for my Week 8, NFL picks...

Tampa Bay @ Minnesota(-5.5)  (o/u 43)
Savant Spread Pick: Minnesota and the points to win ~ 23-17
Over/Under Pick: Under

St. Louis v. New England(-7)  (o/u 47)
Savant Spread Pick: New England and the points to win ~ 26-16
Over/Under Pick: Under

Indianapolis @ Tennessee(-3.5)  (o/u 47)
Savant Spread Pick: Tennessee and the points to win ~ 27-23
Over/Under Pick: Over

Jacksonville @ Green Bay(-15)  (o/u 43.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Jacksonville with the points; Green Bay to win ~ 27-13
Over/Under Pick: Under

Cleveland v. San Diego(-3)  (o/u 43.5)
Savant Spread Pick: San Diego and the points to win ~ 20-16
Over/Under Pick: Under

Atlanta @ Philadelphia(-3)  (o/u 43.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Philadelphia and the points to win ~ 26-23
Over/Under Pick: Over

Seattle @ Detroit(-2.5)  (o/u 42.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Detroit and the points to win ~ 24-16
Over/Under Pick: Under

Miami @ New York(A)(-2.5)  (o/u 40)
Savant Spread Pick: Miami to win ~ 21-17
Over/Under Pick: Under 

Carolina @ Chicago(-7.5)  (o/u 43)
Savant Spread Pick: Chicago and the points to win ~ 28-20
Over/Under Pick: Over

Washington @ Pittsburgh(-4.5)  (o/u 46)
Savant Spread Pick: Washington to win ~ 29-27
Over/Under Pick: Over

Oakland @ Kansas City(-1.5)  (o/u 42)
Savant Spread Pick: Oakland to win ~ 20-17
Over/Under Pick: Under

Dallas v. New York(N)(-2)  (o/u 46.5)
Savant Spread Pick: New York and the points to win ~ 27-19
Over/Under Pick: Under

New Orleans @ Denver(-6)  (o/u 55)
Savant Spread Pick: New Orleans to win ~ 31-28
Over/Under Pick: Over

Arizona v. San Francisco(-7)  (o/u 38)
Savant Spread Pick: San Francisco and the points to win ~ 23-12
Over/Under Pick: Under