Thursday, October 25, 2012

NFL Week 8: Win, Spread, Over/Under and Game Score Predictions

Welcome to another week of The Sports Savant NFL Picks, Week 8 Edition!

A Cincinnati loss to Pittsburgh.  That's how close I was to every prognosticators dream; the perfect week.  Heading into Sunday night's battle between the Bengals and Steelers last week, I was perfect, 11-0 in my week's NFL picks for Week 7.  Only once in the 24 regular season weeks I have kept an official record of weekly NFL picks had I even only had one loss in a week, a 15-1 record in Week 14 of the 2011 season on a full slate of NFL games.  In that week, I had already suffered the sole blemish by the end of the 4:30 games; a 19-21 loss by the 49ers to the Cardinals.  This time I was still undefeated going into the night game.  The Bengals had control of the game early and I was primed for an undefeated run, but the Steelers came back and blew the dream.  By Monday morning I had suffered my first loss.

I ended up correctly picking the Monday Night Football game winner and settled with a 12-1 record for Week 7 and improved my already robust winning percentage 66.3%.  Some would argue that the 15-1 record from last year is more impressive than a 13-0 record considering their were six teams on bye for Week 7 that didn't have to be picked and no teams on bye in Week 14 last year when I reached the 15 win mark.  That may be true, but any prognosticator would tell you that there is something special about escaping a week of NFL picks without a blemish whether it is in a week of teams on bye or a full slate.  I'm still seeking that elusive perfect week, but as close I have come in just a season in a half, I am bound to hit it.  Maybe it will be this week!


In this week's NFL picks, I have only one underdog covering the spread in a loss(Jacksonville) and I also have four dogs to win their respective games outright(Miami, Washington, Oakland and New Orleans).  I went mostly chalk and picked out the games that looked prime for an upset last week and nailed nearly every one of them.  I am using a similar formula this week and we'll see what kind of results it brings me.


On the season, with last week's explosion of winners, I was also on absolute fire in my spread and over/under picks finishing Week 7 with a 9-3-1 mark against the spread and 9-4 mark picking the over/under.  These marks lead to a personal record of seven trifectas in a single week, a feat that may never again go matched it's is so unbelievably rare.  This blazing week brought me back to nearly even for the year on my spread picks(48.5%) after my brutal stretch of bad spread picks during the NFL Referee lockout when everything was so unpredictable.  My over/under picks have been scorching all year long though and half way through the season I have a 57.7% success rate on the over/under, a rate of success that only the most expert of prognosticators reaches for a full season.


Before we look at my picks for Week 8, let's take a look at how last weeks picks shaped up and my overall records for the 2012 NFL season...




*WEEK 7 RESULTS*


Winner: 12-1   :-D
Winner w/ Spread: 9-3-1  :-D
Over/Under: 9-4 :-D
---------------------------------------------
Trifecta: 7 (New Record!)
Strikeouts: 0
Perfect Team Score Predictions: 2 (St. Louis, Tampa Bay)
Perfect Game Score Predictions: 0
___________


*2012 Overall Record*
Winner: 69-35 (.663)
Winner w/ Spread: 49-52-3 (.485)
Over/Under: 58-43-3 (.574)
--------------------------------------------

Trifecta: 27
Strikeouts:17
Perfect Team Score Predictions: 13   [Week 1]: New England  [Week 2]: Indianapolis, San Francisco [Week 3]: Chicago, Washington, New York(A)  [Week 4]: Cleveland, Philadelphia  [Week 5]: Green Bay, Seattle, San Diego  [Week 5]: St. Louis, Tampa Bay
Perfect Game Score Predictions: 0


NOTE: The team with a negative number in parenthesis "(-3)" next to their name is the favorite to win the matchup and the number represents how many points the favorite has to score more than the underdog to count as a winning bet.  The over/under for the game is represented by a number in parenthesis with the letters o and u "(o/u 46)".  The number represents the amount of points you are wagering whether or not the two team's combined score will be in excess of or short of.  Official betting lines courtesy of www.footballlocks.com

LOCKS: Games that have a "*LOCK*" logo next to the score are my spread lock picks of the week.  I choose four games each week that I feel will be a lock to win the spread bet.  If I have an underdog winning against a favorite and it is a *LOCK* pick, it means it is a lock that the favorite will not cover the spread, not a lock that the underdog wins the game.

Don't forget to visit therealsportssavant.blogspot.com to check my game picks or right here on lastwordonsports.com at The Sports Savant channel.  And now for my Week 8, NFL picks...



Tampa Bay @ Minnesota(-5.5)  (o/u 43)
Savant Spread Pick: Minnesota and the points to win ~ 23-17
Over/Under Pick: Under





St. Louis v. New England(-7)  (o/u 47)
Savant Spread Pick: New England and the points to win ~ 26-16
Over/Under Pick: Under





Indianapolis @ Tennessee(-3.5)  (o/u 47)
Savant Spread Pick: Tennessee and the points to win ~ 27-23
Over/Under Pick: Over





Jacksonville @ Green Bay(-15)  (o/u 43.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Jacksonville with the points; Green Bay to win ~ 27-13
Over/Under Pick: Under





Cleveland v. San Diego(-3)  (o/u 43.5)
Savant Spread Pick: San Diego and the points to win ~ 20-16
Over/Under Pick: Under





Atlanta @ Philadelphia(-3)  (o/u 43.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Philadelphia and the points to win ~ 26-23
Over/Under Pick: Over






Seattle @ Detroit(-2.5)  (o/u 42.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Detroit and the points to win ~ 24-16
Over/Under Pick: Under





Miami @ New York(A)(-2.5)  (o/u 40)
Savant Spread Pick: Miami to win ~ 21-17
Over/Under Pick: Under
 





Carolina @ Chicago(-7.5)  (o/u 43)
Savant Spread Pick: Chicago and the points to win ~ 28-20
Over/Under Pick: Over





Washington @ Pittsburgh(-4.5)  (o/u 46)
Savant Spread Pick: Washington to win ~ 29-27
Over/Under Pick: Over





Oakland @ Kansas City(-1.5)  (o/u 42)
Savant Spread Pick: Oakland to win ~ 20-17
Over/Under Pick: Under





Dallas v. New York(N)(-2)  (o/u 46.5)
Savant Spread Pick: New York and the points to win ~ 27-19
Over/Under Pick: Under





New Orleans @ Denver(-6)  (o/u 55)
Savant Spread Pick: New Orleans to win ~ 31-28
Over/Under Pick: Over





Arizona v. San Francisco(-7)  (o/u 38)
Savant Spread Pick: San Francisco and the points to win ~ 23-12
Over/Under Pick: Under

Thursday, October 18, 2012

NFL Week 7: Win, Spread, Over/Under and Game Score Predictions

Welcome to another week of The Sports Savant NFL Picks, Week 7 Edition!

In Week 6 of the NFL, I took some risks and some paid off, but a few expected winners took a dive making last week one of the tougher weeks in the NFL to prognosticate.  In a gutsy call, I actually had the Seahawks defeating the Patriots in my picks, just one of a very few that predicted them to win, which was a stellar pick victory.  On the flip side, teams like Minnesota, Philadelphia, Arizona and Houston, all of which I picked to win and were favored in their games, all lost, sending the Savant's record for Week 6 to a sub-par 7-7.  At 6-8, the Savant spread picks came out on the short end as well, but in stunning fashion, I have excelled at the Over/Under this year going 10-4 this week to improve my overall Over/Under record to a robust 55.7% accuracy through 7 weeks.

The most important news of these records is that I have continued my streak of 24 consecutive regular season weeks finishing with a record .500 or better "to win".  It's rare that I ever finish at exactly .500 for a week, but in the past it has always come the week before a solid week of picks.

This week is the smallest menu of games all season with six teams on bye.  Even with a small menu, the Sports Savant trudges on with yet another week of NFL picks!  I mostly went chalk as I expect most favorites to cover their respective point spreads, but I did take two underdogs to win(Tennessee, Cincinnati) and two underdogs to beat the spread in a loss(Seattle, Detroit). Before we take a look at my Week 7 picks, lets check out my pick results from Week 6 and for the 2012 season...


*WEEK 6 RESULTS*


Winner: 7-7   :-/
Winner w/ Spread: 6-8  :-(
Over/Under: 10-4 :-)
---------------------------------------------
Trifecta: 3
Strikeouts: 2
Perfect Team Score Predictions: 0
Perfect Game Score Predictions: 0
___________


*2012 Overall Record*
Winner: 57-34 (.626)
Winner w/ Spread: 40-49-2 (.449)
Over/Under: 49-39-3 (.557)
--------------------------------------------

Trifecta: 20
Strikeouts:17
Perfect Team Score Predictions: 11   [Week 1]: New England  [Week 2]: Indianapolis, San Francisco [Week 3]: Chicago, Washington, New York(A)  [Week 4]: Cleveland, Philadelphia  [Week 5]: Green Bay, Seattle, San Diego
Perfect Game Score Predictions: 0


NOTE: The team with a negative number in parenthesis "(-3)" next to their name is the favorite to win the matchup and the number represents how many points the favorite has to score more than the underdog to count as a winning bet.  The over/under for the game is represented by a number in parenthesis with the letters o and u "(o/u 46)".  The number represents the amount of points you are wagering whether or not the two team's combined score will be in excess of or short of.  Official betting lines courtesy of www.footballlocks.com

LOCKS: Games that have a "*LOCK*" logo next to the score are my spread lock picks of the week.  I choose four games each week that I feel will be a lock to win the spread bet.  If I have an underdog winning against a favorite and it is a *LOCK* pick, it means it is a lock that the favorite will not cover the spread, not a lock that the underdog wins the game.

Don't forget to visit therealsportssavant.blogspot.com every week to check my game picks and check the previous week's picks for individual game pick results!  And now I present my Week 7, Sports Savant, NFL picks...





Seattle @ San Francisco(-8)  (o/u 37.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Seattle with the points; San Francisco to win ~ 20-13
Over/Under Pick: Under 



 Tennessee @ Buffalo(-3.5)  (o/u 46.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Tennessee to win ~ 31-29
Over/Under Pick: Over




Arizona @ Minnesota(-6.5)  (o/u 40.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Minnesota and the points to win ~ 20-13
Over/Under Pick: Under




 Cleveland @ Indianapolis(-3)  (o/u 45.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Indianapolis and the points to win ~ 24-16
Over/Under Pick: Under




Baltimore @ Houston(-6.5)  (o/u 48.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Houston and the points to win ~ 26-17
Over/Under Pick: Under




St. Louis v. Green Bay(-5.5)  (o/u 45.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Green Bay and the points to win ~ 27-20 *LOCK*
Over/Under Pick: Over




Carolina v. Dallas(-2.5)  (o/u 45.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Dallas and the points to win ~ 24-17
Over/Under Pick: Under




Washington @ New York(N)(-6)  (o/u 51)
Savant Spread Pick: New York and the points to win ~ 31-24 *LOCK*
Over/Under Pick: Over
 




Tampa Bay v. New Orleans(-2.5)  (o/u 49.5)
Savant Spread Pick: New Orleans and the points to win ~ 31-28
Over/Under Pick: Over




New York(A) @ New England(-10.5)  (o/u 47.5)
Savant Spread Pick: New England and the points to win ~ 34-13 *LOCK*
Over/Under Pick: Under




Jacksonville @ Oakland(-4)  (o/u 44)
Savant Spread Pick: Oakland and the points to win ~ 24-13 *LOCK*
Over/Under Pick: Under




Cincinnati v. Pittsburgh(-1)  (o/u 44.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Cincinnati to win ~ 23-21
Over/Under Pick: Under





Detroit @ Chicago(-6.5)  (o/u 44)
Savant Spread Pick: Detroit with the points; Chicago to win ~ 27-23
Over/Under Pick: Over

  

Thursday, October 11, 2012

NFL Week 6: Win, Spread and Over/Under Predictions

Welcome to another week of The Sports Savant NFL Picks, Week 6 Edition!

After a sluggish first few weeks(thanks mostly to the unpredictability of the replacement referee debacle), the Sports Savant has been heating up on NFL picks each week and was absolutely on fire in Week 5!  I finished with an amazing 12 wins, 9 wins against the spread, and 8 wins(plus a tie) in 14 games this week. If you made your wagers based on my predictions, you made a substantial amount of money.  Add to those totals six trifectas to one strikeout and three perfect team scores, it was a NFL week of picks to remember.

This week presents its challenges and tough matchups, but now that I've got my mojo going, I'm feeling another big week of picks.  I'm going against the grain this week by picking four underdogs to win(Cleveland, Indianapolis, Minnesota, Seattle) and I even have a couple of favorites not covering the spread in wins(Miami, San Francisco).

Before we look at my picks for Week 6, lets take a look at my record last week and my overall record for NFL picks in 2012... 


*WEEK 5 RESULTS*


Winner: 12-2   :-)
Winner w/ Spread: 9-5  :-)
Over/Under: 8-5-1 :-)
---------------------------------------------
Trifecta: 6
Strikeouts: 1
Perfect Team Score Predictions: 3 (Green Bay, Seattle, San Diego)
Perfect Game Score Predictions: 0
___________


*2012 Overall Record*
Winner: 50-27 (.649)
Winner w/ Spread: 34-41-2 (.453)
Over/Under: 39-35-3 (.527)
--------------------------------------------

Trifecta: 17
Strikeouts: 15
Perfect Team Score Predictions: 11   [Week 1]: New England  [Week 2]: Indianapolis, San Francisco [Week 3]: Chicago, Washington, New York(A)  [Week 4]: Cleveland, Philadelphia  [Week 5]: Green Bay, Seattle, San Diego
Perfect Game Score Predictions: 0


NOTE: The team with a negative number in parenthesis "(-3)" next to their name is the favorite to win the matchup and the number represents how many points the favorite has to score more than the underdog to count as a winning bet.  The over/under for the game is represented by a number in parenthesis with the letters o and u "(o/u 46)".  The number represents the amount of points you are wagering whether or not the two team's combined score will be in excess of or short of.  Official betting lines courtesy of www.footballlocks.com

LOCKS: Games that have a "*LOCK*" logo next to the score are my spread lock picks of the week.  I choose four games each week that I feel will be a lock to win the spread bet.  If I have an underdog winning against a favorite and it is a *LOCK* pick, it means it is a lock that the favorite will not cover the spread, not a lock that the underdog wins the game.

Don't forget to visit therealsportssavant.blogspot.com every week to check my game picks and check the previous week's picks for individual game pick results!  And now I present my Week 6, Sports Savant, NFL picks...





Tennessee v. Pittsburgh(-6.5)  (o/u 44)
Savant Spread Pick: Pittsburgh and the points to win ~ 34-13
Over/Under Pick: Over






Cleveland v. Cincinnati(-2)  (o/u 43)
Savant Spread PickCleveland to win ~ 20-17
Over/Under Pick: Under






Indianapolis @ New York(A)(-3.5)  (o/u 43.5)
Savant Spread PickIndianapolis to win ~ 23-17
Over/Under Pick: Under






Kansas City @ Tampa Bay(-4)  (o/u 40)
Savant Spread PickTampa Bay and the points to win ~ 27-20 
Over/Under Pick: Over






Oakland @ Atlanta(-9)  (o/u 48.5)
Savant Spread PickAtlanta and the points to win ~ 31-17 *LOCK*
Over/Under Pick: Under






Dallas @ Baltimore(-3.5)  (o/u 44.5)
Savant Spread PickBaltimore and the points to win ~ 26-20 *LOCK*
Over/Under Pick: Over






Detroit Philadelphia(-3.5)  (o/u 47.5)
Savant Spread PickPhiladelphia and the points to win ~ 24-20
Over/Under Pick: Over






St. Louis @ Miami(-4.5)  (o/u 38)
Savant Spread PickSt. Louis and the points; Miami to win ~ 16-13
Over/Under Pick: Under






Seattle v. New England(-3.5)  (o/u 43.5)
Savant Spread PickSeattle to win ~ 21-20
Over/Under Pick: Under






Buffalo @ Arizona(-4)  (o/u 43.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Arizona and the points to win ~ 27-20 *LOCK*
Over/Under Pick: Over






Minnesota @ Washington(-2)  (o/u 44)
Savant Spread PickMinnesota to win ~ 31-28
Over/Under Pick: Over






New York(N) v. San Francisco(-6.5)  (o/u 45.5)
Savant Spread Pick: New York(N) with the points; San Francisco to win ~ 23-17
Over/Under Pick: Under






Green Bay @ Houston(-3.5)  (o/u 47.5)
Savant Spread PickHouston and the points to win ~ 29-24
Over/Under Pick: Over






Denver @ San Diego(Pick)  (o/u 49)
Savant Spread PickDenver to win ~ 31-23
Over/Under Pick: Over *LOCK*